Mathematical Equation Predicts Massive Human Population Collapse By 2064 | WION Podcast

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Welcome to the We on podcast, where we explore fascinating stories and ideas from various fields. In this episode, we uncover a shocking mathematical prediction that suggests the global human population could dramatically collapse by 2064, raising urgent questions about the future of humanity and civilization itself.

[00:00:22]It's a warning that turns numbers and equations into a chilling glimpse of humanity's possible future.

[00:00:29]Experts have predicted that the world's population will crash in the next 40 years.

[00:00:34]Currently, there are an estimated 8.3 billion people on Earth, but this number is in danger of being halved by the year 2064.

[00:00:43]Scientists say this could happen because of any of the four reasons: climate collapse, a pandemic, global conflict, or resource shortages.

[00:00:53]Certain portions of a new paper explore hypothetical future scenarios as the researchers modeled what could happen if major environmental crises abruptly imposed severe carrying capacity limits on Earth.

[00:01:08]Scientists from the University of Milan said, "Under a deliberately conservative worst-case assumption that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around 2 billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064."

[00:01:29]The researchers stated that they are not predicting anything, and this is merely an illustrative mathematical scenario, which explores how abrupt changes can affect the population dynamics of the world.

[00:01:42]The study was published in the journal Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, and analyzed 12,000 years of human population growth.

[00:01:50]A mathematical equation was devised which accurately reproduced the population growth patterns from the Neolithic era to the modern age.

[00:01:59]They took into account slow growth in some periods and accelerated growth in others.

[00:02:05]The calculations showed that the current trajectory is stable.

[00:02:10]However, in the worst-case scenario, Earth could sustain only about 2 billion people, only a quarter of the current population.

[00:02:20]The number of people would dramatically plummet with half the population gone.

[00:02:25]"In a scenario where carrying capacity constraints suddenly become abruptly active, predicts a rapid population decline," the researchers wrote.

[00:02:36]The paper also analyzed the doomsday scenario proposed in 1960, according to which there would be such an explosion of people that humanity would go extinct on November 13th, 2026, a Friday.

[00:02:50]The researchers wrote that since fertility rates declined globally, we avoided this scenario, but the underlying mathematics of runaway growth can still reappear under certain conditions.

[00:03:03]Thanks for tuning in to this incredible story.

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