Tropical Wave Possible & Philippine Rain Forecast 22 April 2026

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Chance of increasing rainfall across northern portions of the Philippines and a new tropical wave we're watching out here towards the south of Guam extended forecast. I'm meteorologist Robert Betta. If you're new to this channel, make sure you hit that subscribe button so you can always be notified when these new updates come out. We've been doing this for about 20 years now, so I'm always happy we get some newer viewers on here kind of talk about what we got going on across the Western Pacific. And first, you know, that subtropical ridge that has been keeping things hot across the Philippines, especially into Vasai, still in place, but you know, the energy from Slaku, which is way off here towards the north now, pushed up this overall jetream, and it's causing that front to dip down. We had I saw videos of some pretty decent rainfall in Isabella uh here on Monday, uh Tuesday as well. There is some light rain, but I think that trough is going to dip down again as we go ahead through Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday, especially Friday and Saturday. You're going to be looking at some decent afternoon showers across parts of the Kagayen Valley and overall there into northern Luzon. So, light rain mo for the most part could provide a little bit of relief from the heat. Just off of that though, for most of us, you're not getting much of a break. You're seeing plenty of sunshine.

[00:01:15]And I'll just tell you that right now even over towards Mindanao. But there is some increase in rain with that tropical wave I was talking about in the extended forecast. I'll get to that in a second.

[00:01:23]Let's zoom right in here on northern Luzon though. Give you an idea of those afternoon showers I'm talking about. How about Friday? Let's go ahead through the day. There's 11 12:00.

[00:01:32]So you get that daytime heating. You got that troughing coming in from the north.

[00:01:36]And here's your showers across the Cordela Mountains. But even if we go another hour, so it kind of bubbles up further towards the east into the Kakayan Valley. Uh good news for um some of the farmers out there. I know there's a harvest going on in a few spots kind of causing some issues there, but it has been very dry. So the rain is welcomed in some of these spots here. Would be nice if it got even went to a little bit further south in the Pongan or maybe go over closer to the NCR. This is predominantly going to be north of the Maga Dam type of event here. So off here, if you go from like Sububic north, that's where you're really going to be seeing most of the rainfall over the next few days, just because that's where that instability from that troughing is, just towards the north. And then you got all the mountainous terrains. You get a little bit of orographic lifting up slope from the mountains creates that added instability. So you can see that here with the chances of rain across the Philippines. Now, we still have easterlys. So isolated pockets of precipitation into Mindanao. Um maybe over towards place like Shark, but it's going to be kind of this tropical atmosphere. Now that's over the next 5 days. What I've been showing you. Now we're going to look ahead 26 to 28th. So it is almost about 5 to 7 days out here.

[00:02:50]April 26 to 28th. We got a weak tropical wave as I showed you on satellite towards the southeast of Guam that could work its way towards the west. Are there any signs whatsoever of this turning into a name storm? No, I don't even see a low pressure area really. But I do see a transport of the moisture tracking across here into Yak Palao and eventually into Visayas and parts of Mindanao, which will increase your chances of rainfall in that extended forecast. So, is it going to be a full-blown typhoon? By no means is anything indicate that. In fact, the heat is going to continue for the time being here in the Philippines. No current tropical threat, but we are watching a weak wave, but the heat is really the main factor out here.

[00:03:38]Temperatures still staying into the mid30s. Heat indices over 40° across parts of Bisayas. It is hot. So, where you are getting the rainfall probably a welcome site. Chargal 30 degrees there, but remember that heat index at about 35. Then we scoop back towards the north into Sibu 33. buckle out at 33 there for you. So yeah, lot of spots into the mid30s. Manila probably the hottest part out here. One reason is of course that subtropical ridge. The other is the urban heat island effect. The NCR just getting baked. So much black top there.

[00:04:12]Uh it's going to heat up. Same there for you into Subc. And as well across the Kagan Valley, at least here on our Thursday, there is that chance of rainfall that could cool things down.

[00:04:22]But Kagayion still at 37 heat index with added humidity definitely over the 40° mark. So you got to take the good with the bad I suppose. Looking at the broader picture though, long period swell still dominating with the waves out here. Like I mentioned, if there is a tropical wave, it's not going to be very strong. So you're not expecting to see some added swells coming off of that. Generally seas are relatively calm at this time. All right, here's look at Sunday and the Monday for Shara and northeastern. And now there's that tropical wave I was talking about though increasing that chance of afternoon showers. Is it going to be a typhoon?

[00:04:57]No. Once again, I'm I'm trying to reiterate that. But it could increase some showers out there even Sunday in the money. Increasing cloud cover for parts of Manila, which subsequently will cause the temperatures to drop ever so slightly. Let's bounce over towards Sibu. Hey, look at the trend. Look at the same theme here. Sunny skies Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Then that weak tropical wave by Sunday and the Monday start to increase that chance of rainfall. Meanwhile, for our friends in the Guam, relatively drier, lots of recovery still to be had. Power outages still across the Mariana Islands. So, you want the rain, especially in Tinian and Caipin, I heard that they're having still issues with getting fresh water, lots of long lines. Some rain would help out with that a little bit, but uh [sighs] still a long recovery ahead for our friends out there following Super Typhoon Sinaku. A big shout out to all our Patreon members. That's what's behind me here. I want to talk about Super Typhoons. That's people that donate $10 a month to this channel. $6 a month you become a typhoon. And we also have several other um layers here with even some sponsorships like frontr runnerfinanicial.com which um you know they've been supporting this channel for a long time.

[00:06:08]Make sure you check them out if especially here at tax season you see some taxes uh to do. Anyways, I'm meteorologist Robert Betty. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, let me know. And number one thing, of course, as always, when we're talking about the long range forecast, tropical threats, is stay safe out there. All right, friends, and thanks for watching.

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