Live Chat For May 20, 2026

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:03:38]And we are live. Welcome to the live chat for Wednesday, May 20th, 2026. Of course, I'm your meteorologist, Stephen D. Martino. We've had a very stormy afternoon as our heat wave is coming to an end for some locations. uh many locations did not reach the heat wave criteria but certainly has been hot especially on the I95 corridor that has all come to an end and what's replacing it is a temperature regime that's 20 that's 20 to as much as almost 40 degrees colder than what we've been dealing with. We're going from the mid to upper 90s in some cases record-breaking temperatures to where this weekend we're going to be in the 50s. 50s for highs for Memorial Day weekend. Not exactly the best weather conditions for outdoor activities. Uh we have some very impressive heavy rainfall uh that we are watching right now over the I95 corridor and on Long Island.

[00:04:39]We're getting some reports of some flooding uh taking place with this moderate to heavy rainfall. We had a flood warning also around the Philadelphia metro. Uh we have moderate rainfall out here in Freo right now after some impressive downpours taking place. So uh certainly something that has been very very impressive uh for this afternoon. In fact, the winds that came through ahead of this thunderstorm in Freelo, New Jersey was a little worried that we weren't going to be able to actually go live tonight because the lights were flickering. We lost the internet for a little bit. Uh it was pretty impressive. Uh so the winds have died down now. Now we just got steady rainfall and we're losing the support for the severe thunderstorms, but not the waves, the showers that we're going to be dealing with through tomorrow. And a lot of that is is going to be driven by what we call frenogenesis.

[00:05:35]This is frenogenesis here. This is at 925 millibars.

[00:05:40]But as you go up higher in the atmosphere, we should see it shift further and further west. So let's test that out. So this is 925.

[00:05:47]Here's 850. Yep. A little bit further to the west. And then here is 700.

[00:05:54]So even more so to the west. So what you have here is a coldfront boundary that is starting to slow down. And the reason why it's going to slow down is because of the orientation of the upper level winds. You see we have a trough that is building into the region. But it's notice this what we call positively tilted trough. So this cold front that's dropping southward. It's essentially the the mid and upper level winds are running pretty close to parallel rather than perpendicular. So as a result, the coldront moves very slowly and this opens up the potential for more rainfall. So our severe threat is pretty much done here. I I take a look at the instability here. You can see not as impressive as earlier. Now you might be wondering, Stephen, what does this all mean here? Okay, so I'm going to walk you through this. If you just had the minus4 and the minus3 here, that's your regular lifting index. Okay.

[00:06:55]But when you have these shades of blue here, especially the darker blue, that kind of acts like a cap. So what happens here is that the atmosphere because it's rain cooled is capped at the lower levels of the atmosphere. And the best way to see this uh on your skew T, let's see if it actually shows up here.

[00:07:15]Um let me pull this up.

[00:07:19]Let's see if it ah perfect. Okay. So let me go hour ahead.

[00:07:28]Okay, perfect. Okay, so what happens with the rainfall is that it cools the lower part of the atmosphere. So it creates this little cap here. So basically you don't have the instability in the atmosphere anymore, but you have plenty of moisture. Now look at the principal water values at 1.65. You can also see it here in the observation. This is from again the spc.noah.gov.

[00:07:55]Uh the SPC mess scale analysis completely free. Something that when I was a kid, I mean I would love to be able to get this data and just look at it. And it's really a lot of fun to really study and kind educate yourself before you even go off to college. So, uh, if you don't have money to buy meteorological books, let's say you're in high school, these websites are like a gold mine of information and you could find so much data and when you click on like these question marks here, you can learn a lot about what these different fields mean and it's really really awesome to take a look at it. Um so what we have right now is a gradient here that's set up um with our frontal boundary and enhancement of lifting enhancing the precipal values. So when you get this type of signal this tells us that we have pretty good potential of waves of rainfall moving through the region. So uh this is a great sign in terms of our drought. I mean, thankfully uh we'll be able to break out of our drought gradually the more that we see this uh but it also opens up the potential for that uh flooding potential as we move on through the evening. So, this is going to definitely be a wet evening on the I95 corridor. Uh if you're watching the Mets and Nationals game, uh they're staying pretty much dry through the evening as all this will stay to the north of them. Uh that could be good or bad depending on what's going on with the game right now. Uh but if you're on the if you're here, it's going to be unsolved weekend. So a lot is changing in the weather pattern. We've been advertising this for weeks, months. The evolution of us going from Leninia to El Nino is literally happening right now. been talking about this quite a bit uh with the premium discussions and premium members. We're seeing this live. We're seeing the change of the atmospheric anglo momentum and that means that we see a a stronger and stronger influence especially with an eastbased uh El Nino of a trough around the northwestern Atlantic. And in the warm season in the spring and the summer when you have a persistent trough in the northwestern Atlantic like what we are seeing here in our 500 mibar pattern. In fact, let me uh zoom out here.

[00:10:23]It's one of these. One second. Sorry.

[00:10:25]Ah, there we go. Okay. So, this is the long range 45day European guidance. And you could see here the overall theme as our El Nino pattern takes hold. You have a trough around the illusions and a troughlike feature around the northwestern Atlantic. And what that means for us is that you tend to see a lot of ridges building around the northern plains and the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley. But for us, we get that northwesterly flow, backdoor cold fronts, unsettled conditions. the southeast remains active with the subtropical jetream which mean which leads to waves and showers and thunderstorms down there. So if you're looking to break the drought down in the southeast and around let's say Atlanta, Georgia and and the Carolas, this is the pattern you've been waiting for. So all this is is is evolving and so as a result what you end up with is this theme where not much in the way of heat waves. uh is going to be a lot like what we just saw this week.

[00:11:28]Um maybe three two days of of temperatures in the 90s and then you get a situation like this. So as we can see going all the way into July, we have a lot of days where we're near to below normal, a lot of precip precipitation potential and uh certainly something where we could see a nice little rebound in our drought conditions. So that's certainly some good news as we move forward. So the pattern's changing and so as it's changing, we're going to remain pretty active with our weather pattern heading into the Memorial Day weekend.

[00:12:07]Look, unfortunately, this is not going to be the type of weekend where you can go outdoors a lot.

[00:12:14]It just isn't. Okay? Uh and the reason why is not so much of a strong storm, but more of a clash of air masses. So notice that 500 millibars here for this Saturday. We have a nice southwesterly flood. Okay, this looks like hey maybe strong warm air transport a ridge axis over the region looks favorable, right?

[00:12:34]But when you take a look at what's going on at 700 millibars, this is this really tells you everything. This strong frenogenesis is developing because the maritime air mass is building south and the tropical air mass is is driving northward. From roughly let's say 700 millibars up to 250 millibars you have a tropical air mass invading. From 850 millibars down to the surface you have a maritime air mass invading. And so that process enhances isotropic lifting which basically means warm air is moving over cool moisture loaded maritime air which leads to a lot of low clouds a lot of showers and a lot of days in the 50s and 60s. This weekend we're looking at high temperatures in the 50s uh all day Saturday throughout the entire region. 50s and 60s on Sunday. Memorial Day basically 60s. Uh not exactly the summerlike weather that we've been dealing with the past three days. That is for sure. And with this front of genesis hanging around that means we have a good chance of seeing a lot of scattered showers, drizzle, uh and and some steadier rainfall from time to time. Um in and with that, look at the precipit values just building here.

[00:14:03]plenty of moisture. When we start to get into an environment here where we start talking about precipitable water values pushing close to two inches, that means we have the potential here for some heavier rainfall. This doesn't always tell us about coverage. It tells us about the potential. So your higher your precipit value, the more moisture in the atmosphere, the better chance for rainfall. And this signal continues to show up. Even though we don't have very warm temperatures, we are holding a lot of moisture. Some polar air mass is trying to push in. The moisture tries to surge right back in from the Gulf Coast.

[00:14:39]So this is going to be a constant battle back and forth. So unfortunately as we take a look at the next 90 hours here uh here comes our coldront moving through tomorrow. We'll have showers lingering around the region. There's that Annafront support via our front of Genesis I was just talking about setting up waves of showers over central New Jersey back through the Philadelphia metro. Few lingering showers around the New York City metro as well that we'll have to keep an eye on tomorrow evening into Friday. It dries out a bit and then we head back into our rainy pattern for Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. And again, this isn't where we see rain constantly. It's just waves of showers, drizzle, and easterly wind letting setting up uh just raw weather conditions. And that continues on through Sunday. Labor Day, I should say Memorial Day itself, uh looks like it's more sky, cloud cover, more isolated showers. So, I don't know about you guys, but for me personally, uh we are actually gonna have a barbecue here, okay, on Monday rather than doing on Saturday and Sunday because Saturday and Sunday, we're all going to be stuck indoors and I'm I'm I'll grill for us, but not really for anybody else. Uh I don't mind grilling outside in the rain, but you know, you don't want everyone stuck in the house. So, you know, Monday is probably going to be your best day, unless you can pull off Friday. Friday would be the best day out of all of them. And then of course once we get back to work, sky, cloud cover, generally dry conditions for Tuesday, of course, naturally. But look at the pattern overall here. Let me zoom out here and let me just show you. Good idea to get the latest data.

[00:16:28]Look at this pattern. It just remains active all the way through. You can clearly see that we have transitioned to a different pattern here. A lot more rainfall potential, a lot more opportunity for some steady widespread rainfall. A lot of potential for cool air masses, uh, setting up for cool, stable, not so much severe thunderstorms, uh, but a lot of moderate to heavy rainfall events setting up in this type of weather pattern. So, uh, if you are done with the drought, if you're done with the hot weather, uh, like what we saw last year, this is some great news. I think that we're going to see a much more active, uh, wetter weather pattern. And so, in the meantime, there's our rainfall moving through. Uh, you can see in this type of convection, you kind of lose the severe potential here, okay? Because what's happening is that the thunderstorms are becoming more elevated. What does more elevated mean?

[00:17:27]Well, at the lower levels, the atmosphere is becoming more stable, right? But you still have at 850 millibars instability. So, your thunderstorms, the base of your thunderstorms are higher up in the atmosphere because of that instability.

[00:17:42]Uh, but you it's pretty much just heavy rainfall. From time to time, you get some gusty winds, but they lose their punch because everything's kind of elevated up a little bit. But this certainly supports uh nice little heavy rainfall event on the I95 corridor. And then we set up with this front dropping through. Let me zoom out a little bit here.

[00:18:04]And you can see the setup here for tomorrow's rainfall via our front of Genesis at 700 millibars and 500 millibars. That's going to be setting up right on the I95 corridor late tonight on through tomorrow morning and lingering into tomorrow afternoon. So with that, of course, we will answer some questions here. We I see we have a lot of stuff going on here. Um so I'm definitely going to jump on that. A couple of notes that I just want to share. One, we are in the middle of upgrading the website. Final upgrade.

[00:18:38]The backend's all fixed. The premium uh the premium signup and all that stuff has all been fixed and much more stable.

[00:18:46]Uh we have AI integrated into it to help with building the website faster, especially when we get new business clients. Um we will be uploading new the new templates for the new look on the website. Uh so that's going to be a a pretty uh pretty big deal over the next couple of days uh and week ahead. So lot of exciting news there. Um yep.

[00:19:14]I'm assuming they mean, >> huh?

[00:19:18]>> Who's that?

[00:19:21]>> Yeah. I mean, I've I've been emailing him all day. He needs to change his browser.

[00:19:27]He has something black. We have like a full staff.

[00:19:32]>> Yeah, he's using some like some off-brand uh browser.

[00:19:37]um where you know like I like I told him I'm like try a different browser because we got a full staff. Everyone's in here that we normally see during the summer.

[00:19:46]Obviously in the winter we have like 50 people and then 500 people and all that stuff but not so much in the spring summer which is fine. It's good. I understand. Um yeah. So definitely um we already seen that. Um what else I was going to say? Oh yeah.

[00:20:06]Um, some news from the AMS. We are actually working on with our AMS seals and stuff actually enforcing the seals.

[00:20:14]Uh, which is really cool. As you know, this is something that I personally have been pushing for especially with people posting a lot of ridiculous stuff. You know, 15-day GFS's, AI slop, stuff like that.

[00:20:30]Especially if they're actual I'm not talking about like the 15y old. I'm talking about the actual meteorologist who has a seal.

[00:20:39]There's been a lot of push from other meteorologists saying like, "Hey, you have to do something about this." So, that's some good news. We're actually making some headway. When it comes to legal stuff, it always takes forever, you know, but but we're definitely making headway there. Uh, and I'll be putting out some some cool like behind thes scene videos and stuff over the next couple of weeks about what I do.

[00:20:59]So, you know, definitely check that out.

[00:21:01]If you're a young aspiring meteorologist and wants to learn about the opportunities out there, definitely check that out. So, let's dive into some of the questions. Uh, do you think the Yankees will be able to get their game in tonight? It's going to be tough. It's really, really going to be tough to get that game in because you got waves of rainfall moving through. Um, let's see.

[00:21:23]Nothing here in Keaton, New Jersey. Just some spit. Well, I think you'll get a little bit more rainfall, especially tonight. I think you met missed the brunt of it, but I think you'll see more rainfall tonight into tomorrow morning.

[00:21:36]Uh, with the Annafront we were just talking about the Fog Genesis that is setting up. Basically, uh, this right here, I think, is going to leave you about maybe another quarter, maybe 3/4 of an inch of rain, um, with the setup that's starting to evolve here. And just so you can kind of get an idea what that looks like, let me use the HRR while I still can because apparently that's going to be replaced, too. So, let's take a look at this.

[00:22:03]There's our showers and thunderstorms.

[00:22:06]We get a little bit of a break towards midnight.

[00:22:10]Then you can see the front setup.

[00:22:12]There's your rain in northern New Jersey. And then just slowly drops its way through the region. Uh let me pull up another view here.

[00:22:22]See if we can get a little bit longer range here.

[00:22:27]And you can see like through tomorrow morning, we're just going to have these waves of rainfall. It gradually improves tomorrow and then we start to clear out pretty nicely. So, if you have plans tomorrow evening through Friday, that's when you want to go out and get uh some stuff done. And of course, we will answer we'll get to the um YouTube and and and X. We have some people on Twitch as well, so we'll definitely check all that out to see if we have any questions and whatnot on there. But as always, first is the live chat here for premium members. The Mets are not doing so well, but not bad, but just they're down 24. We'll see what happens. Um, at this point, I'm just pulling for them to get back to 500.

[00:23:14]And although they did beat the Yankees now, didn't they? Uh, do you expect any heavy rain in Union County? We did not get much rain. I think you'll see a lot of moderate rain. I don't think you'll see the heaviest rainfall in Union County. I think it's going to be more focused to the south of you. Cold air coming in at 850 millibars into northern Midwest and Great Lakes from Canada is really impressive. Can't remember the last time I saw 850s in the 5 to 10 degree Celsius below. Yeah, I mean it's this is going to be a nice little impressive polar air mass. I think going forward we'll see more Pacific and Canadian maritime air masses. This is a really unique polar air mass. That is for sure. What is the weather going to be like tomorrow morning at Newark Airport? Uh periods of showers, that's for sure.

[00:24:03]Let's see. How heavy will the rain be Saturday afternoon? I don't expect it to be like flooding rain or anything of that nature. Uh more moderate showers from time to time, a lot of drizzle, light rain. The key word here is raw.

[00:24:21]Raw and just kind of like not like not wanting to be outside. Uh light enough so that it's annoying, but not heavy enough for, you know, flooding or anything of that nature. Uh, so I don't expect like any type of uh major flooding or anything of that nature this weekend, at least at this point. Uh, let's see what we got on YouTube here.

[00:24:45]Uh, was in the severe thunderstorm warning that was issued in southern New York. It was pretty wild. Bell Parkway.

[00:24:52]All roads in Queens are flooded out.

[00:24:54]Impressive. Um, let's see here.

[00:25:00]See, good evening. Okay. Uh, is the threat of diminishing for Kate May as even progresses? Yeah, I think Kate May um you can still see a thunderstorm, but I think the severe threats pretty much done here. Uh, let's see. Extreme flash flooding in Queens and Brooklyn Bell Parkway. Uh, cars rescues all lanes closed. Impressive clear view and Long Island Expressway closed with car rescues. Uh, can't access the live. Okay. Yeah, we already talked about that. I was paying attention to all the local radars during the those severe storms and OKX storm relative velocity showed some broad rotation over Brooklyn around 700 p.m.

[00:25:43]Yeah, when you're seeing that, especially when it's broad like that, that's usually a mess scale low. And the messcale lows are usually a pretty good sign of very heavy downpours. Uh not necessarily a tornadic uh development or anything of that nature.

[00:25:59]Um, let's see. Looks like it was driven by straight line wind gusts over Prospect Park. Could the hills of central Brooklyn, Queens have caused those winds to disperse and give false sense of rotation? Uh, hard to say. It kind of depends on where that rotation was in the cloud in the clouds. It that could have been a factor. It's possible.

[00:26:22]Uh, was there a tornado? No.

[00:26:25]uh go with my daughter to 405 game in Washington DC tomorrow.

[00:26:31]Uh I don't know whether they actually get the game in tomorrow to be honest with you. Um they were kind of lucky tonight. They might have a real hard time getting the game in tomorrow. At least it might be delayed. Uh yeah, Monday would be the best day out of the three. Uh let me just check out what does Philly weather have to say. Finally done with my AP test. That's awesome.

[00:26:52]Now I just cruise through the rest of the school year. Enjoy summer and get ready for Penn State. Well, congratulations. There we go. Anyway, enough about me. What are your thoughts on the CFS PDF and spread corrected enzel models?

[00:27:09]Uh, it's interesting.

[00:27:16]Here's the thing with with and I'll throw the European in this with the CFS is that they tend to be a little bit too let's say aggressive. Okay. Um sometimes it's you know a little bit too too much you know. Oh I see that we already have our first uh spam.

[00:27:41]If you're gonna spam a feed that clearly is using English, then perhaps don't use don't type Spanish. It's like it just stands out.

[00:27:56]>> Yeah, but >> either way, I agree.

[00:28:03]I'm >> I'm just going to start I'm just going to go enter uh uh chats from different countries and just start typing Italian or something. Um, >> right. Uh I think that the CF I think that a lot of people jumping on the super El Nino idea might be in for a surprise.

[00:28:30]I'll put it that way. Um, that has me concerned. Okay. I think it's a little bit too warm, a little bit too high.

[00:28:39]We'll see. I certainly like a strong El Nino as we've been talking about. Um, but, you know, we'll see how it plays out.

[00:28:49]Do you think the Yankees game happening tonight? I don't think so. Honestly, I don't think so. I think you have a better shot of pulling off a double header tomorrow. But then again, I've seen Major League Baseball, you know, wait to start a game at like 10:00 at night just to get it in.

[00:29:07]So, I wouldn't rule that out either.

[00:29:11]So, we'll see how that plays out.

[00:29:16]Let's see.

[00:29:20]basically enough to keep people away from the beaches and kill the daily beach traffic down the Gar State Parkway. Yeah, I mean I can definitely see that. Yeah.

[00:29:30]Yep. Yeah, I definitely could see that playing out.

[00:29:34]Let's zoom back in here.

[00:29:37]So, we're start we're certainly starting to see the intensity of these showers and thundtorms starting to fall off here. Um, so that's certainly some good news. So, I think that the intensity of rainfall is pretty much coming to an end. Um, that that should help with some of the flooding reports we're seeing.

[00:29:55]So, we finally got an announcement the RRFS and the RF will be taking over in August. Yeah, we talked about that last week. Uh, I haven't heard I've heard that the HRR um might be removed later on in the year, like more towards the winter season. Um, there's a lot of debate back and forth on that. We'll see if that plays out.

[00:30:20]I'm going fishing this Friday. Uh, Friday should be okay. Friday, Friday afternoon should be fine. Friday morning, too. It's not bad either, but uh it might be a little little uh cool out there. Not looking for any type of strong winds, though. Got something on there. Okay, so we got we got a translation here.

[00:30:46]Um, this hurricane season has to start now in Western Pacific with the 20 26 hurricane season. The first major hurricane could form in the western Pacific this week. Uh, yeah, I mean there are some indications. I think typically you know what's going to be active this year in terms of hurricanes is going to be the eastern Pacific.

[00:31:07]That's typically where we see a lot of activity.

[00:31:16]So, everyone's doing the regent exams too. Oh, we got another thing from Philly weather. Oh, yeah. I agree with that. But I was talking about the PDF and spread corrected version of the model. You can find it on the weekly PDF update. Okay. So, let's see if I can pull it up here.

[00:31:36]Where are you? I know I got somewhere around here.

[00:31:40]Ah, here we are. Okay, let's see what we got here.

[00:31:46]Let me scroll down and here we go.

[00:31:53]So this is the relative and it's peaking it basically the average is peaking it below two which would make it a strong this is one of the things that I was warning about that again no doubt that we'll see a strong El Nino and all that stuff. Um, but my concern was with the waters being with the Pacific waters overall being so warm that might blunt this El Nino a bit in terms of the atmospheric uh uh influence and we're seeing some indication of that with the CFS where be a relative Nino 3.4. This is pretty interesting to see this. And again, the reason why I know a lot of people are jumping the gun um with expectations for this winter.

[00:32:46]Here's my advice. Let's Let's chill on winter ideas until we get to August.

[00:32:55]I know, but let's chill on that until August. And here's the reason why. Okay, we want to watch the evolution of this El Nino. We want to study not only the strength but the orientation and the depth of the warm water and what how it influences the 500 mibar pattern. The more that we just got to sit back and watch it and study it, we don't have to issue I don't know. I'm already seeing people issuing winter forecast one way or the other. um it isn't necessary and quite frankly you're just kind of throwing darts at at a wall. Um let's see where we're at in August, whether we are pushing over 1.5 or if we're struggling, whether we see a full connection between the warm water and and at at the subsurface and the warm water at the at the surface. Do we have that connection or do they stay disconnected? Um these are all things that we have to study and watch.

[00:34:00]And while models help us move in the direction, you don't want to take them verbatim.

[00:34:07]Again, this is meteorology, not modelology.

[00:34:12]So when someone says, well, the model says so. I ask, what else do you have? What observations do you have? You can't rely on previous historical events because we have a completely different atmospheric and sea surface uh environment. So it'd be unwise to do so. So these are the questions you need to ask yourself when you say when you study this pattern and see this Elino develop.

[00:34:48]How is it similar? How is it different?

[00:34:50]How is the system and when I say system I mean the atmospheric system reacting to this El Nino. Where is our atmospheric angular momentum? Where is our SOI? Right? And these are questions that I don't have a concrete answer to yet. I have model data. I have suspicions.

[00:35:14]But this is where you have to say it's okay to wait to step back to say okay we see the potential let's see some of this evolution and if we do that then we can't go wrong. Okay. The goal isn't to be first. The goal is to be right. The goal isn't to be perfect. The the goal is to be good. So that way you can provide meteorological information that people can prepare for. If you go from one extreme to the other, if you go from it must be X or it must be Y, then you end up with people unprepared for the variety of potential scenarios that we might have um in the months ahead.

[00:36:03]Um so I think that answers that. Um, does that mean when they say it's cor corrected, does that mean meteorologists try to fix the data? No. Well, what it means by corrected is that sometimes uh you get some some model data that is just kind of out of the woodwork. like it'll produce a leninia uh result or it's clearly featuring a lot of errors. So, they'll remove that and correct the average as a result. It's basically making sure quality assurance.

[00:36:49]Let's see what else do we have here. Uh, New York City beaches don't officially open until the weekend after Memorial Day. And a teenager already drowned this week off Rockaway Beach. That stinks.

[00:37:07]>> Yeah. Oh my god. Yeah. I saw that.

[00:37:10]That's a Look, all I could say is that Look, I don't know if you guys saw this thing in Long Branch, but all I know is that when I was a teenager, if I did that, I wouldn't have to worry about the cops. I had to worry about my mom killing me. Oh my god. Are you kidding me? My I I wasn't afraid of my dad. I was afraid of my mom with the metal metal pan. Boom.

[00:37:36]My dad would do the belt. He undo the belt. That's pretty much it, right? But my mom, she just went scorch hers.

[00:37:43]Forget about it. Like if you No, don't do that.

[00:37:54]Oh, okay. So, I think he's talking about the area near Guam where tropical systems in April when the MTO is in phase six and seven. It's definitely possible. I know that there's some indications of some tropical development, but nothing uh immediate.

[00:38:13]Excuse me. I'm getting older. I can't stay up late anymore.

[00:38:21]I used to stay up late when I was 10.

[00:38:26]Yeah, I was excited about staying up past 9. It was really exciting. Now I'm just excited to go to bed at 9. How about that?

[00:38:34]>> Things for you guys to look forward to.

[00:38:39]>> Crawling my bed. My best friend.

[00:38:43]>> I'm going to bed. Good night.

[00:38:46]Uh let's see here.

[00:38:52]basically enough to keep let's see winter forecast in May. Might as well try to pick the winner of the next year's Kentucky Derby. Oh yeah. Yeah.

[00:39:00]There's I've already seen it especially on YouTube channels. There I've seen on like especially on YouTube, right? I've seen uh winter forecast. I've seen some of it on Facebook too. winter forecast 2026 strong El Nino means I saw one where they had a tornado right in in the graphic a tornado with a snowstorm and old man winter grabbing both of them. Now it was ridiculous but I I have to say like the the old Bay of Winter trying to grab the tornado and the snowflake was hilarious >> apparently. So, so I don't know. I don't know. I in the race to get clicks, I guess people so I think a lot of it is what we call infotainment. You know, it's not so much that they actually trust it. It's just that, you know, hey, I want to I want to sit here and hear about natural disasters in the end of the world. And they just enjoy watching it. Kind of like how like we like watching our shows, you know? It's like sometimes there are some good YouTube channels out there that like do a great job with information like talking about, you know, um I don't know how to make things like history, food history, stuff like that, you know. And then there's some people who are hellbent on seeing the end of the world for some reason.

[00:40:30]Let me just pull up our radar here. Zoom out a little bit.

[00:40:36]And here here's the cold front. Now, here's how this is going to play out.

[00:40:40]This right here is going to keep on pushing eastward and clearing out uh and heading towards southern New England.

[00:40:47]Then, as you can see, uh we get a break around Washington DC where unfortunately they're not going to get rained out and they're losing 62.

[00:40:55]Uh and then you can see out here, here is our next wave. Now, this low pressure system is going to ride along this coldfront boundary to tonight and by tomorrow, it'll probably be around South Central Pennsylvania and then head towards the New York City metro as we move on through the morning hours in the early afternoon. And that's going to lead to this area of rainfall continuing. So, that's essentially what we're seeing here. Now, I'm curious as to how the RRFS is handling this.

[00:41:30]Let's take a look and see how it's doing. So, we'll pull up the 18Z one because that's the one that goes all the way out to 84 hours.

[00:41:40]And as you can see, here's the thunderstorm. Not too bad.

[00:41:44]A little bit too strong around New York City, but not bad. I mean, it's pretty close to what actually transpired.

[00:41:53]There's that break around midnight. It looks like it's evolving.

[00:41:57]And now it is taking the rainfall into into the region tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon. It keeps the rainfall around the entire region into the late afternoon hours and then clears out.

[00:42:14]Well, it doesn't even clear out. It just keeps the rainfall in over central and southern New Jersey all the way into Friday morning. So, the RRFS is much much wetter uh with this weather pattern. And then you can see the rainfall coming in on Saturday, just waves of showers. And then that continues on into Sunday morning. So, not exactly the best weather conditions.

[00:42:38]Are the Mets turning it around? I think that the Mets will play better.

[00:42:45]I can't entertain playoffs or anything of that nature until they get to 500.

[00:42:50]Get me to 500, then we talk. I think that's fair. But I like the kids. I like that they're bringing up the kids because I might I'd rather see that than some, you know, 40-year-old guy who's, you know, taking up a spot. Uh I can't even tell you the amount of scary situations I've dealt with on the beach.

[00:43:10]I work dispatch for beach patrol in southern New Jersey. Just last year, we had a boat crash into the jetty. And then the following week, a sailboat completely capsized off the beach. Man, that is some crazy stuff.

[00:43:27]Then again, the way that some people drive around here, I'm not exactly surprised.

[00:43:32]There are some people Oh, yeah. There are some people that just do not want to listen to anything. Um, I remember going to the beach. I don't go to the beach much, especially not these days. Um, but I remember where they clearly had signs out saying, "Hey, look, strong rip tide.

[00:43:50]Don't go out." This guy was screaming at the top of the, "I'll do what I want.

[00:43:55]I'll go into water. You can't tell him anything. Drown 15 minutes later."

[00:44:01]Well, no one's going to tell him what he wants to do now cuz he's dead.

[00:44:06]I don't know, man. It's just like sometimes, you know, sometimes these things are here for a reason.

[00:44:11]>> Just to like, you know, piss them off or ruin their day. It's there for their sake.

[00:44:16]>> Yes. I will have to say I just want to say I am very impressed with Keith Hernandez's uh understanding of meteorology. I do have to say that that was because you know that some sports guys they come up with some ridiculous nonsense. But Keith was very good. He mentioned about the coldront Jesus.

[00:44:36]Someone, you could tell someone's been actually listening. Uh, several I'm just checking this out on X. Several trees down and streets were closed in Farmingdale, Howell. Similar happened in Asbury. Wow. So, yeah, these storms definitely packed a nice punch. That is for sure.

[00:44:57]See if we have anything else. Good thing the Mets are on the road tonight. Yeah.

[00:45:02]Yeah, that is true.

[00:45:04]I just wish they'd play better just a little bit.

[00:45:10]My throat has been getting dry recently, too. Not fun.

[00:45:15]It's that time of year, all the allergies and stuff.

[00:45:19]So once again, you know, in terms of the chat room and stuff like that, um, severe weather, I know a lot of guys, they they they actually, you know, a lot of weather feeds, they actually do really well with severe weather. And I was asked like, "Hey, how come you don't do a lot of live coverage with severe thunderstorms?" And I'll tell you why.

[00:45:43]Okay, severe thunderstorms here are more shorter duration and more broken whereas a lot of the other who do great job, you know, like that like a Alabama um I forgot what it's called.

[00:45:59]Let's see here. I wonder if I have it here, but I think it's like the Alabama weather.

[00:46:09]Excuse me.

[00:46:11]Let's see. Alabama.

[00:46:17]I'm probably spelling it wrong, too.

[00:46:20]Oh, here we are. Alabama Weather Network. Yeah. Uh, that's a lot of fun to watch in terms of severe weather.

[00:46:27]Now, why? Because it's more long duration. Like, you could have these thunderstorms last for hours on end, which is kind of like with our weather chat, right? We can go hours on end. for us 15 20 minutes at most maybe an hour event uh because of the stable nature.

[00:46:45]So I definitely do updates. It's just that it's hard to really justify a long duration video event um or or weather event. Um let's see here. Outbreaks down south or and in the plains are all day events like our snowstorms up here. Yes, exactly. Our events are basically at most maybe three hours long. Um, which can be very hard to set up. And again, doing a live coverage, it takes up a lot of bandwidth on a website. So, you really have to kind of pick your your point. Now, part of the website upgrade is that that won't be too much of an issue anymore. Um, so that's certainly some good news. Oh, hold it. Did so hit. Oh, I thought he hit another home run, but no. Um I I just want them to do well and they they keep on teasing me. Although I did did thoroughly enjoy the weekend with where they beat the Yankees. That was a lot of fun. Anyway, that's why I don't do the severe thunderstorm uh live live chats unless it's happening while we're doing live coverage. Oh, no way. Did he do it? He just did it again. So hit his second home run. The Mets are right back in it now. Now it's 4-6. He just hit a two-run home run. He killed it.

[00:48:11]>> Yeah. Well, that's the other thing, too.

[00:48:13]We do tend to lose power around here, too. Thing and we lose power if someone sneezes around here, >> right?

[00:48:22]>> Yes. That's the thing. And that's one of the things I'm actually I know you're not a fan of Elon, but there is that that that um that that um internet that that they have with Starlink that I might have to at least look into as a backup. Not so much these severe weather events, but like let's say the hurricane events, like if we're down with the internet for like days, like what we were with Sandy, that might be something to look into as far as insurance, but I don't know. It looks pretty expensive, but we'll see. It has to be a backup plan that you that I've been considering. I'm like, you know, something to actually watch out for cuz it's not I tried it with the phone and that was not any fun.

[00:49:14]Mets need to do what the Knicks did and get Den to do a curse lifting.

[00:49:21]Yeah, we'll see about that. Look man, you need you forget Dan Housen. You need like a priest, a rabbi, I don't know, a charman, >> priest, >> young priest, old priest, all the priests, everything. All the dominate Judas priests. Yes, that too. We need all the denominations. We need to find out whether someone like if there was like an Indian burial ground or God's or or or some like mobsters built is buried under there. I don't know.

[00:49:53]But this Mets team, not just this year, but just its entire existence, right?

[00:50:00]Anytime something goes really, really wild, there's always an inverse. Always.

[00:50:05]People get hurt everywhere. I don't know. I don't I can't explain it. I can't explain it, but it hurts.

[00:50:15]It's not like a 12-h hour snowstorm.

[00:50:17]Exactly. That's the thing. Good thing Mets are on. Okay. Um, exactly. That's the problem is that, you know, doing doing severe coverage is better in the in the northern Atlantic in my opinion is better by doing quick updates on X.

[00:50:36]I think it flows better. Doing video chat becomes a little bit more con convoluted. Now, if you do get a long duration event where you're guaranteed to see severe thunderstorms, I think you could pull off more in that respect. You know, what actually would work out better is like flooding events. That would definitely set up, but we haven't had one of those in forever. Uh, knock on wood. So, of course, tropical systems, even like a tropical depression that you could definitely do live coverage. Uh, Starling, that should be considered a business expense. Yep.

[00:51:15]Check with your accountant to see if that could be a write off. That's a good point. That would be a tax write off, wouldn't it? Um, so yeah, that's something to definitely consider, you know, just just as a backup because, you know, every time we get a severe thunderstorm, I always get worried, like I was just saying today, like, hey, there's a chance we might not go live tonight if we don't have the the internet.

[00:51:39]I think I was I was the last one. Yeah, I think Ida was the last one. Yeah.

[00:51:45]Yeah, I remember Ida. You remember Ida?

[00:51:49]That was a That was a That was a bad one. That was tough. That was tough.

[00:51:53]>> We lost for six days.

[00:51:56]>> Yes.

[00:51:58]>> We cooked because we had no air.

[00:52:00]>> No air. We had We had bought ice and we're putting ice on our chest. I remember that. Oh my god. I felt like literally the ice was like evaporating.

[00:52:12]>> It was air coming through the windows.

[00:52:15]>> The problem is that we were in >> to begin with.

[00:52:18]>> Yeah. We were in our apartment and that apartment like retained heat like as if it was an oven, right? So, and I was terrified I was going to ruin my computers cuz it was like >> it was rough. We would have blackout c uh um what was it? Blackout curtains. We had those. Uh we had um fans. Uh we had a air conditioner that probably was shooting out mold.

[00:52:48]>> So bad.

[00:52:49]>> Uh are you a JCPL customer? Yep. Yep. I am. I've been, look, I've lived in Freehold my whole life and I've always had power outages and that's why the first thing we did when we got our house was we got a generator and it has been a godsend. I mean, it is the best thing uh that we have ever done for this house in my opinion. Um because it just saves so much. Uh let's see. Do you think the Ste do you think that the Mets will make the playoffs? I will say I always pull for them to make the playoffs, but honestly considering the rest of the National League is is much better. If they were in the American League, I would say yes, for sure. They have a very good shot.

[00:53:38]The National League, I think, is a lot harder. And if they pull it off, it would be on par to what we saw in 2024.

[00:53:48]And the reason why I'm not expecting it is that 2024 was a very very special year after June 1st. From June 1st to the end of the season, it was like magical. Like everything they did was right. They hit home runs when they needed to. There was line drives that just like ended up in their gloves. Like they didn't even move. It was the craziest thing I've ever seen, right?

[00:54:16]where they went from 11 under to 12 over and got into the playoffs and then well then we know the rest. Um so I don't think it's it's um really I don't think it's fair for the younger players that that just got brought up to put that expectations on them. I think that's unfair.

[00:54:42]When will your hurricane forecast be public? Um, I'll probably issue the forecast on June 1st. Uh, it's been out for premium members since April. Uh, and then we I'll post out a graphic pick of what I'm expecting on June 1st. Uh, and we also are already doing the um tropical updates. Although there's nothing going on, I don't expect much to be going on for a couple of weeks, really a couple months. the way things are shaping up. Amount of wire calls over the last 90 minutes and mammoth.

[00:55:16]Yeah, I believe it. I believe it. Yep.

[00:55:20]And and you know the thing is that the way that they have everything set up around here doesn't take much to have power outages because we do have a lot of trees and the way that they originally built the power system in Mammoth County, especially in Freold, is that there everything's above ground.

[00:55:35]But with all the newer developments, what you're starting to see is everything being built below ground. So like over here, we have all the power lines up by the roads, right? Up by the trees. So it doesn't take much. But all the newer developments that are being built, everything's being basically set up underground. So you don't have that scenario. So I think we'll see that slowly improve.

[00:56:00]>> Slowly.

[00:56:04]>> Yes. But they they they're starting to get around to some of that, but it's not it's kind of uh um they've been playing catchup.

[00:56:14]Uh what branded?

[00:56:17]Actually, I do have a Generrack. I have actually it's actually been really well.

[00:56:20]Now, we have a maintenance uh package which I do have to call them up and have them come out uh in a couple weeks.

[00:56:28]Um yep, that too. But I I mean overall I think as long as you keep the maintenance up I think it works out pretty well. Um so I think that's true with almost anything. Um probably the best one if you have if you have solar panels definitely check out the one uh with that that has um with Tesla.

[00:56:54]I've heard some really good things about that because you can connect it to the solar panels and have like a battery.

[00:57:02]You don't have to worry about like any like motor or anything that it just charges the house. So that's certainly good. Slowly it would take decades for it around here. Oh well that in New Jersey that's slowly you know that's fast for New Jersey. Are you kidding me?

[00:57:17]>> Glacial pace.

[00:57:18]>> Glacial pace. Exactly. They don't do anything fast except raise taxes here in New Jersey. Come on. You know, they try to repair roads. For some reason, it takes two two years.

[00:57:30]So, don't get me started on that. But overall though, gener I mean, I've been happy with it. Hey, power goes out, it turns on. It's all I want.

[00:57:45]You know what they need to do? They need to build a nuclear power station. That's what they got to do. So, I I hope they go with more nuclear power around here because that would help.

[00:57:57]Uh it's strange in Queens. Half is below ground, the other is power lines. You know, I know why that is all about the time that the when your development was built. That's that's what that's about. Okay. The newer the development, the more likely it'll be below.

[00:58:19]Oh, someone's being an issue.

[00:58:25]>> Hey, you know, I don't understand why someone would actually do that. Then, see, I'm Gen X. See, that's the problem is that I look at that and I'm like, you got nothing better to do. Like, I feel bad for you. Like, don't you have like, you know, go out to hang out with your friends, play video games, shoot basketball. Hey, you know, Nick's doing well.

[00:58:49]>> All sorts of stuff to do.

[00:58:51]>> Yeah, you you can do all sorts of stuff, but I don't. Uh oh.

[00:58:57]Oh, boy. There's a home run. Well, that's that. Thank you very much, Kimberell.

[00:59:05]I just want them to win. I don't want anyone to get hurt either. That's the other thing too.

[00:59:16]Tomorrow >> maybe depending if it's rained out or not.

[00:59:23]>> Well, we'll see.

[00:59:25]Uh let's see. I think we answered all the questions.

[00:59:33]>> Check out Facebook. See if there's anything there.

[00:59:42]And let's see. I think we got a lot of it.

[00:59:47]There we go. All right.

[00:59:51]Although, I will say that this year, I do expect at least one good really good rainfall event that we'll probably have to do a live coverage for. Uh definitely expect that. But I think that is about it and it is 8:56. I think we want to wrap it up. As long as you see anything on your end.

[01:00:19]>> Okay.

[01:00:21]>> I should want to rant some more.

[01:00:24]>> No. No. I'll be doing that all summer.

[01:00:27]So with that, it is uh 8:56. We'll call it a night. We're done with the severe weather. We just got some rain to deal with. Tomorrow's going to be a damp day as well. If you have any outdoor plans, definitely would suggest later the later towards the evening the better. Uh if you have any plans in the afternoon, even when the rains ending, it'll still be damp out there. Certainly much cooler. We are done with the heat. I don't see any type of major heat going forward.

[01:00:58]>> Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty much about it, you know, but uh we will be uh done with the major heat. That's certainly some great news. So, with that, I will say good evening, have a good night, and as always, stay safe out there.