Weather Authority Weekday: Looking ahead to your weekend forecast and Sunday's 'Blue' moon

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]I hope you had a chance last night to check out the weather authority hurricane plan. It aired last night on News4JAX at 8:00 p.m. and on News4JAX Plus. And it was a great show. It gave you a lot of good information. I was actually It was the first time I saw it, too. And I was like, "Oh, this this actually has a lot to talk about." So, big shout-out to Chief Meteorologist Richard Nunn, Janice Harris, Katie Garner, Chris Holt and of course yours truly, Meteorologist Michelle McCormick.

[00:00:26]Good to be with you on the last Friday I don't know what's upside down. I'm just not with it. The last Friday of May.

[00:00:33]Monday, that means is the first day of hurricane season. It's June 1st. Good news is nothing brewing. But we're going to have a whole hurricane conversation later on in the show. We're going to talk about what's also happening this weekend on Sunday. Plus, we're going to talk about a historic hurricane that happened Uh do the math, Michelle. 20 No, 54 years ago, ish. And uh why it's historic. So, you're going to want to stick around for all of that.

[00:01:01]But first, let's talk about what's happening right now. It's a pretty nice morning out there. If you go outside, I actually took my little lunch break. I know, lunch. I ate it at like 9:30 because when you get to work at 3:10, you got to have lunch at 9:30, right? Roy's like, "You got that right." So, here's a look outside at Jacksonville Beach. And you know what? The camera's a little fuzzy because it has a little moisture on it.

[00:01:28]But otherwise, people are kind of hanging out. We had high tide about 7:15 this morning. So, the tide's kind of heading back out.

[00:01:36]There's a low to moderate rip current risk at the beach today. And people just really soaking in the sun. I hope they have on plenty of sunscreen. And I hope they have plenty of water while hanging out at the water. Now, from the beach to the marina here at Mayport, there have been boats coming in all morning long. And it's pretty nice here on the river. It's 85°. 85° it's 11:00 in the morning. The winds are out the north-northeast at 6:00. Now they've been out of the northwest and now they're kind of shifting a little to the northeast.

[00:02:08]There's a frontal system to our north and central Georgia and it's kind of just shifting around the winds a little bit. We went everywhere from west-southwest this morning to west to north and northwest and now we're at north-northeast at 6:00. So it's feeling like 93. There's some folks heading out to their boat. Hope they get it out get out and get it back in early on because this afternoon might be kind of ugly out in the water. All right, here we have the Jacksonville International Airport busy place over the next several days.

[00:02:39]Kids are getting out of school. People are starting their summer breaks and the airport tends to be a pretty busy place. So we're seeing the clouds kind of roll in here 85° and see variable wind. That makes more sense to me because the wind's been all over the place this morning.

[00:02:55]But it's feeling like 93. So temperatures across the area we're already seeing 88° in Putnam County.

[00:03:00]That's going to be a hot spot today.

[00:03:02]I'll tell you. We're going to see storms fire up down there this this afternoon.

[00:03:06]I am certain. I'm telling you Richard none right now. Pay attention to Putnam County cuz I do think we'll see some stormy weather there especially with the high heat already in the morning and then mid-80s across most of the rest of the region. We do see some low 80s there. But a look at our radar as it is I don't see any real issues here. Now there's a few little spotty showers if you will like right there just above the well it's when it stops here. Boop right there above the S. There's a little spotty shower there. Couple little spotty showers up here in the Ware County Charlton County region but all in all radar's looking pretty decent right now. So let's talk about the future track and and what it has to show. So you see a little bit of a of winds kind of in a low pressure like counterclockwise.

[00:03:56]That's kind of what that variable wind is doing, but they're really coming out of the north and out of the west and they're going to be traversing across Southeast Georgia bringing in rainy weather first about 1:30. Well, then we're going to have the sea breeze really kicking in and the models earlier, these are improved models. Now, the models earlier were showing some rain moving out towards the beaches after 12:00 and then moving offshore.

[00:04:21]There we go. By 2:45, that's when it looks like Nassau County, Duval, St. Johns County will have some of that that rain before the sea breeze really kicks in and starts pushing stuff inland, but we're also going to start to see a line of showers coming across I-75 into Columbia County through Union, Baker, Bradford County north of Alachua County.

[00:04:43]But then by 4:30, where we really do start to see some of the heat of the day and the sea breeze convergence. This is where that line is and you can see the dark blue arrows lining up there and that's going to be the US 301 corridor where we could really start to see some heavy downpours, gusty winds, the opportunity for frequent lightning as well and with some localized flooding in spots. Now, there's a big red area over Jacksonville at this same time. That's of course going to be right in the middle of a Friday afternoon commute and San Marco and all the preparations they're trying to do to help with reduce the localized flooding in their area with the pumping. So, the opportunity is there and at times with heavy downpours, we could see 2 to 3 in in some spots. A lot of your rain gauges have been showing us 2 to 3 in as well.

[00:05:33]But by 6:00 p.m. looking like a lot of this is going to be moving west to east and moving offshore. So, very similar setup to what we saw yesterday.

[00:05:44]I I leaving downtown about 4:00 yesterday, had some drops and then as soon as I hit the Butler Boulevard bridge going back to the beach right around 4:30 it just dumping. So, you know, it's going to be hit or miss, keep the umbrella handy and make sure the windshield wipers are working good on your car if you're out and about.

[00:06:01]Saturday morning will start out really nice, very similar to the morning that we had here then by 1:30 I know there's a ton of graduation parties and there's a lot of outdoor events happening and people want to be outside and it's Saturday. Well, just be prepared for some rainy weather throughout the afternoon. It'll be scattered.

[00:06:20]If you do have an outdoor event, make sure you have your plan B in place.

[00:06:24]Maybe if you have our app, it gives you a really good heads up when lightning's about 5 10 miles away, when rain's approaching your area and when we when and if there's any watches or warnings issued by the National Hurricane Weather Center. They send those out as well. But by the evening time, if you have downtown plans in the evening, maybe you're going to go listen to a DJ play downtown Saturday night, looks like it's going to be pretty nice.

[00:06:49]Doesn't look like there's going to be much rain in downtown Jacksonville, maybe mostly staying to our south in our southern counties because a lot of that heat of the day really will help fuel those those storms in the late afternoon. Then Sunday again, waking up pretty nice. That low pressure system's going to move offshore. You can see the rotation of the arrows as that frontal system does move through Saturday and that low pressure system attached to it moves offshore and it's just going to bring in some onshore winds. We could possibly see high rip currents by the by Sunday afternoon be issued by the National Hurricane Center. But by our National Weather Service rather.

[00:07:30]Flash flood risk, well, I mean flash floods a a term but localized flooding is in the marginal area for today just because of those heavy downpours at times. And then the rainfall forecast for today we can see 1/2 in in areas such as World Golf Village to maybe 3/4 of an inch like in Stark up in Callahan even at the airport maybe.

[00:07:54]Yesterday we had less than 1/2 in of rain officially at the airport and then maybe even 1 in of rain up in Southeast Georgia as those clouds really pull through with the frontal activity. And then over the next 3 days up to an inch and a quarter up at the airport. That would be great. We could use the rain at the airport.

[00:08:13]That's where our official totals come through, right?

[00:08:17]Inch and 3/4 in Green Cove through Clay County an inch and 3/4 in Columbia County. Maybe an inch and a quarter out at Mayport and along St. Augustine. So good These are good numbers over the next 3 days, but keep in mind this isn't it might not be all at once. It's going to be over the next 3 days. So take that number divided by 3 you get you know, over 1/2 in a day. Do the math. Or less than 1/2 in a day. Depends on where you are. Okay. Thank you. All right. So I wanted to throw this one in here. This is percent of normal rainfall. This is over the past 30 days.

[00:08:49]So today is May 29th.

[00:08:52]So going back to April 29th and compared to the amount of rain we didn't have compared to now 30 days later the rain we do have these numbers are are kind of interesting. So you'll see there's a lot of 92, 96, 99% down to Palatka 99%.

[00:09:11]That's indicating we're exactly on track for rain in those regions in this 30-day cycle. Now areas to the west Lake City, Gainesville, Macclenny I'm talking to you Waycross where it's 200% or high 90 196%.

[00:09:29]These are areas that have surpassed their percent of normal rainfall. So figure 100 is normal for the past 30 days. So, we're there twice as much rain in those regions than we've seen over the past 30 days. So, that's good news.

[00:09:44]Now, the bad news though is in Mayport along the, you know, coast, they're at only 23%. So, take or take, you know, take what you will from these numbers, but it's we've had a good showing of rain over the past 30 days, but really over the past week, that the drought monitor uh didn't change this week. So, even though we've had a lot of rain, it didn't enhance, it didn't get worse, right? So, the exceptional in the dark, dark red area of most of Southeast Georgia and a good portion of Northeast Florida, uh mostly west of US 301, that didn't get worse. It it didn't get better, but it didn't get worse. What did get better in this week's drought monitor was areas moving into Nassau County. So, uh Brunswick, where you see on our map from Brunswick, St. Mary's, and into portions of Nassau County, that did improve. It moved into the severe range, which is a level level two. So, other areas in the regular red color, that's going to be your level three extreme.

[00:10:46]So, we still have a long, long, long way to go over the next um over the next several uh months, if you will. I mean, it's going to take a while even if we get a half inch of rain a day, we would need 40 days at that rate to make up 25 plus inches of rainfall. So, um with the rain that we're getting, yeah, we'll take it when we get it. I mean, we don't really love it during the commute or on the weekend, but, you know, we we can't plan the rain. So, here we have our hourly forecast for today with those rain chances increasing throughout the day with shower and thunderstorm activity uh likely 87° by 4:00 p.m. I think we'll top out around 88° to a to 90°. Yesterday we did hit 92° even with those afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Um Um 90° in Orange Park today, 91 in Palatka. Could be a little bit warmer though. I mean they're already up in the upper 80s. Now travelers, I know you're looking ahead to those summer vacations and here's some of those temperatures across the country. New York at 80. I swear they were like in the 50s earlier this week and now they're up to 80. That's hot for New York. They don't have a lot of AC up there.

[00:11:54]Um we're seeing 84 in Denver, again warm.

[00:11:58]86 in Phoenix, that's cold uh for those folks, but 94 in Billings, that's a little bit on the warm side for Billings. Uh 91 in Tampa, that seems to be the hot spot in our uh state. All right, low temperatures tonight into the low 70s. Our average low should be about 67, so we're still above that with some humidity and lingering cloud coverage into the overnight hours. Now look ahead for this weekend uh scattered beneficial rain.

[00:12:24]You know, we've been talking about it.

[00:12:25]We need the rain. Uh Saturday we could see minor flooding with the high winds associated to and frequent lightning and then Sunday uh there could be some cooler temperatures in spots with that lingering rain, but the 7-day forecast really does look like this. Uh we have temperatures uh right where they should be for this time of year. Our average high is 88 uh at the airport. We've been up bunch above that, 4 or 5 degrees above that over the past several days and then we have a bump in temperatures Tuesday before we move back down to the mid 80s by Wednesday. Now Monday is the first day of June and temperatures will be uh slightly below as well, but that rain chance continues throughout the week. Uh that summer-like pattern is really kind of sticking around. All right, folks, we're going to take a super quick break, maybe 2 minutes or so and when we come back we're going to talk more about uh hurricane season.

[00:13:17]Uh we're going to also talk a little bit about what happened what is happening on Sunday. So um stick around. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the weather authority weekday. All right. So you've heard the term once in a blue moon. What does that actually mean? Well, maybe it just means literally once in a blue moon and that is what's happening on Sunday.

[00:13:37]All right, full blue moon Sunday morning and that means that there are two full moons in the month of May and May is long. So, most months only have one full moon, not two.

[00:13:52]And since the moon's period is a 29 and 1/2 day phase, most months usually have 30, 31 days. Well, you know, I'm just saying except February. It will usually repeat at the end or at the beginning of the next month. Well, it turns out blue moons happen every 30 months on average, 2 and 1/2 years. Seasonal blue moons happen in a similar rate, about once every 2 to 3 years. So, maybe once in a blue moon isn't so rare after all. Thank you, Farmers' Almanac. So, how often do we have two blue moons in a single year?

[00:14:26]Well, in 2018, there were blue moons in both January and March, but no full moon in February and that won't happen again until 2037.

[00:14:36]But then you'll have another blue moon in both January and March. So, kind of interesting. The next blue moon, of course, is Sunday morning at 4:45 a.m. So, right before the uh sunrise is about 6:20-ish.

[00:14:55]Um and then there's I'm just trying to see if there's anything else interesting about the blue moon. Um it is not a scientific term. Uh usually the modern understanding of blue moon only took off in the 1800s, 1980s, rather. Uh it was a result of a much earlier mistake printed in a 1946 issue of Sky & Telescope magazine and since then the term has gone viral in the media. All right, there you have it for your blue moon fever coming Sunday morning. We may or may not be able to see it. All right. So, let's talk about a named hurricanes because with hurricane season starting on Monday, June 1st, what this hurricane is actually kind of an interesting one to talk about because it happened in an El Niño year, which is what we're forecast to have for the 2026 hurricane season. So, I wanted to give you a little update on Hurricane Agnes. Now, Hurricane Agnes was the second tropical cyclone and the first named storm in the 1972 hurricane season. So, 54 years ago almost. It developed as a tropical depression on June 14th. So, just 2 weeks into the hurricane season.

[00:16:16]And it was from the interaction of a polar front and an upper trough over the Yucatán Peninsula, where you can see on this graphic the development kind of off the coast there of the Yucatán Peninsula, Cozumel, Cancun, in that area there.

[00:16:31]It emerged into the western Caribbean Sea on June 15th and strengthened into Tropical Storm Agnes the next day. There after Agnes slowly curved northward and passed just west of Cuba on June 17th.

[00:16:44]Early on June 18th, it intensified enough to be upgraded to Hurricane Agnes. That's where it's in red on your screen there. Heading northward, the hurricane eventually made landfall near Panama City late on June 19th and moving inland, Agnes rapidly weakened and was only a tropical depression when it entered Georgia. Now, this might look familiar. We've had a lot of storms make almost the similar path. But, what's kind of interesting about Hurricane Agnes is it did happen during an El Niño year and it's in the top like 30 storms uh of the the most damage that a storm has made. So, um kind of interesting. I just wanted to remind everybody that it really just takes one. It doesn't matter at what portion of the hurricane season it happens. This one again, in 1972, a storm, El Niño year, happened 2 weeks into hurricane season, and it was uh devastating for folks all the way up through uh the Carolinas, and then it reemerged in Pennsylvania and into New York state.

[00:17:53]So, while it's not on this list, I just wanted to show the Atlantic basin and costliest hurricanes. Uh Hurricane Katrina remains uh number one at over $200 in 2005.

[00:18:07]So, that would be uh 21 years ago. Uh Hurricane Harvey, then Ian in 2022, Maria in 2017, Sandy in 2012, Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Helene, just 2 years ago, is in the top 10 at number seven.

[00:18:26]So, um like I said, only takes one. And a reminder of the NOAA Hurricane Outlook, uh this came out on May 21st, looking for 8 to 14 named storms, hurricanes three to six, and major hurricanes over uh category three, four, or five, uh one to three. But, let's talk a little bit about El Niño, cuz I know I know this keeps coming up. So, um this this was a kind of an interesting graphic I found, and kind of explains the El Niño effect, where the moisture coming out of the Pacific crosses through, in this case, in the lower half of the continental United States, and it's very moisture-fed, right? So, wetter than normal through the western part of the country, the southwestern part of the country through Texas, in through the Gulf and then in through Florida and out through the Carolinas.

[00:19:19]Um and then uh And what does this have to do with anything? Well, El Nino shifts tropical Pacific heating and the atmospheric circulation, so the Atlantic's tropical development is typically suppressed. So, this is what we've been talking about, fewer storms, fewer major hurricanes are common on average. That doesn't mean no risk.

[00:19:40]That doesn't mean no risk.

[00:19:43]It just means that individual storms can still form and impacts on rainfall, fisheries, and agriculture are real and uneven across the basin. So, um although this is a quote now from the National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. He said in a statement, "NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said, 'Although El Nino's impact in the Atlantic basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. That is why it's essential to review your hurricane hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.

[00:20:22]Don't let the below average forecast change your preparation.' So, again, this is um a little also another feed another moisture fed showing cooler than normal in the southern part. And then this shows the shear. So, more wind shear, less hurricane activity. That's what's on the right-hand side. Weaker trade winds, warmer water and temperature that's heading over to the Pacific side. So, again, I want to show you something really quickly if I can get there, Rory. Hold on.

[00:20:56]Don't go anywhere, folks. Uh let's see if I can pull this up for you. I really wanted to showcase um our show, the National or the show we had on last night, our hurricane show. Let me find it for you because I should have had this ready, but I really want to talk about it because it was really interesting and we had a lot of really great information.

[00:21:25]So, here we go.

[00:21:26]Um News4Jax download, you can go under weather, our weather page, and then you can go here to the download and save the Weather Authority's Hurricane Survival Guide for 2026.

[00:21:41]Uh Richard and the entire team put this together for you. You can download it.

[00:21:47]Uh you can see there are uh there's a lot of information here. So, here's our guide and this right here.

[00:21:56]And read through it. There's some really interesting things in here.

[00:22:00]So, um oh, it's not moving. Okay, I see.

[00:22:03]But anyway, you get the gist. It kind of gives you an idea of uh what's there.

[00:22:08]So, let's go back real quick, finish up the show with another look at your 7-day forecast as we round out our our time together here and I get ready for the noon show today, but we're looking for rains to start increasing throughout the afternoon and then our heat of the day will help fire off some of those strong storms throughout the afternoon. So, just be weather aware, keep your eye on the sky, and make sure you have the Weather Authority app handy.

[00:22:35]Okay, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in today to the Weather Authority weekday show. I hope you have a great Friday, great last day of May, and happy graduation to all those kiddos out there that are moving on to the next step of their journeys. All right, make it a great day. We'll see you back here at noon.

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