Tropical System Could Be a Strong Tropical Storm — And Texas Is Now In the Picture

[00:00:00]This is Sunday, July the 19th, 2026. And the Gulf of Mexico just got more complicated. What was being watched as a disorganized area of low pressure through the early morning hours is now officially confirmed as tropical depression 2. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to a tropical depression, confirming that satellite wind data and surface observations show the low over the Gulf West of the Florida peninsula is becoming better organized. And the most important thing to understand about this system right now is not what it is at this moment. It is what the environment it is sitting in is capable of making it become because the trends are moving in one direction and that direction is stronger. Tropical depression two is forecast to become tropical storm bera no later than Monday. The depression currently has maximum winds of 30 malware hours and is nearly stationary as of Sunday afternoon. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida panhandle where tropical storm force winds are possible.

[00:00:56]Stationary. That word is the one that changes the entire forecast conversation. When a tropical system sits still over warm water, it does not turn up colder water from below in the way that a fastmoving storm would. It keeps feeding from the same warm surface layer continuously without the self-limiting mechanism of cold upwelling. That is an environment that supports strengthening and the Gulf of Mexico right now is providing exactly that environment. Let me walk you through the full picture. what is happening, what the models are showing, what the variables are, and who needs to be paying attention right now. The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on tropical depression 2 late Sunday morning as it was centered about 150 mi south of Panama City, Florida, 150 mi south of Panama City.

[00:01:38]That puts the center of the system well offshore, sitting over the northeastern Gulf, which is meaningful for two reasons. First, it is far enough offshore to continue feeding from warm Gulf water without making the inland turn that would cut off its development.

[00:01:52]Second, and more importantly, it means the track over the next several days determines everything about how strong the system gets before it eventually reaches land. The system won't move much through Monday, but is then expected to begin a west or west northwest track starting Tuesday. In general, it could be near the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday into Thursday, and possibly into Texas after that. Louisiana by Wednesday into Thursday, Texas. After that, that westward progression is the track scenario that the model suite is increasingly favoring, and it is the scenario that opens the door for more significant strengthening because of what that westward path does to the systems relationship with windshar. If Bertha's center stays over the Gulf longer, it could be stronger, feeding off the deep, warm water that characterizes the central Gulf. The key variable in this forecast is whether the center of circulation takes a slightly more northern track and makes landfall earlier along the northern Gulf Coast, which limits how much time it has to strengthen, or whether it finds its way along a slightly more southern or westward trajectory that keeps it over open water longer and allows it to continue tapping that warm, deep Gulf moisture. The water temperatures in the Gulf right now are not just warm at the surface. The ECMWF AIFS06A, a highly skillful model, shows a more south of due westward course, and that's the significant concern if the system does not reach landfall along the Gulf Coast. A more southerntherly westward course is exactly the track scenario that maximizes overwater time. And overwater time over these temperatures is what determines whether tropical storm Bertha stays at the lower end of the tropical storm range or pushes towards something more significant.

[00:03:26]Increasing wind shear is expected to limit significant strengthening over the next several days. Wind shear is the competing factor. High winds aloft moving at different speeds and in different directions from surface winds can literally tear a tropical storm apart, preventing it from building the organized vertical structure it needs to intensify. The current forecast keeps significant strengthening limited because of that shear. But the shear is not uniform across the entire Gulf and it is not static. If the system remains disorganized and drifts inland, then limited further development is likely.

[00:03:56]That is the low-end scenario. The system comes ashore relatively early, relatively weak, produces heavy rainfall and some tropical storm conditions, and does not have the time over water to threaten anything more serious. That outcome is possible, and it is one of the model solutions being tracked. But here's the scenario that raises the concern level for Texas and the central Gulf States. Tropical depression 022L intensifies into tropical storm Bertha and takes a more westward course toward Texas. If the track stays south of the Louisiana coastline rather than running directly into it, the system outpaces the worst of the windshare, stays over the warmest deep water in the Gulf and arrives at the central Texas coast as something potentially significantly stronger than what it is right now. The German Icon model has been the most aggressive of the ensemble members in developing this scenario, painting the possibility of a category 1 hurricane landfall. That is not the NHC consensus forecast, but it is not zero probability either. And anyone along the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle through Louisiana and into Texas needs to be aware that the range of outcomes in this forecast is wide enough to include scenarios that look meaningfully different from each other. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida panhandle, ranging from the Ashlocky River to the Florida Alabama border. That watch is in effect right now. It means tropical storm conditions, winds reaching 39 tool per or higher are considered possible in those areas within the next 48 hours. If you are in the panhandle, that is your current official alert. Interests in Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi should be on alert and will need to monitor the forecast for updates on its progress in the coming days. Monitor mode across the entire northern Gulf Coast. That is the appropriate posture for the system right now given the range of outcomes still in play. Heavy rainfall remains the primary concern with the potential for flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast through the middle of the week.

[00:05:45]Even in the lower end scenarios where the system stays relatively weak, rainfall is the hazard that gets underestimated most frequently with systems like this. A tropical system moving slowly over the northern Gulf and gradually working its way west is going to be ringing out significant moisture from the environment it is moving through. The Gulf water temperature, the available moisture content of the low-level atmosphere, and the slow movement all favor training bands of heavy rain that repeatedly hit the same areas rather than a fastmoving system that delivers a single pulse of rain and exits. That is the setup for flash flooding risk that can develop quickly and threaten lives, even if the wind speed never reaches a level that produces formal tropical storm warnings.

[00:06:23]After a warm and muggy morning, temperatures will quickly climb into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Sunday as heat index values are expected to reach 105 to 110°. This matters because it describes the moisture environment that tropical depression Bertha is now embedded in. Heat index values of 105 to 110° represent an atmosphere that is loaded with humidity, carrying an enormous reservoir of latent heat that a tropical system can access and convert into organized convection. That is fuel.

[00:06:57]The same heat that is making the Sunday afternoon feel dangerous from a human health perspective is also the energy reservoir that a developing storm can tap as it moves westward across the Gulf this week. El Nino, which has now been officially confirmed, is a key factor in this forecast. El Nino typically reduces tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin due to stronger upper level winds that can disrupt storm formation. This is the broader context into which Bertha is embedded. El Nino conditions in the Atlantic generally suppress hurricane activity through increased wind shear, which is part of why the 2026 Atlantic season has been relatively quiet to this point with only one named storm before Bertha. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has started off in an unusually quiet fashion with only one named storm so far. Bertha will be the second. El Nino does not make development impossible. The Gulf of Mexico's warm water and the specific atmospheric setup can still support tropical development even in an El Nino year as we are seeing right now. But the sheer environment El Nino maintains across the basin is precisely the limiting factor that is expected to keep Bertha from becoming an extreme event in the base case scenario. Now let me address Texas specifically because Texas is now in monitor mode and deserves a clear explanation of why. The ECMWF AFSE06Z shows a more south of due westward course and that's the significant concern if the system does not reach landfall along the Gulf Coast. A south of due west track keeps the center offshore longer. Longer offshore time over the warm deep gulf means more strengthening time and the terminus of a south of due west track from the current position puts the system approaching the central or southern Texas coast rather than the Louisiana coast. Texas is already dealing with an ongoing flooding situation from the slowmoving pattern that has been producing extreme rainfall over the Hill Country through this week.

[00:08:43]Adding a tropical system making landfall on the Texas coast onto an already saturated landscape with already elevated rivers and drainage systems is the compound event scenario that emergency managers most dread. The practical message for anyone in coastal Louisiana and Texas this week is this.

[00:08:58]Do not wait for a warning before starting to think about what you would do if conditions worsen. The watch phase is when you plan. The warning phase is when you act. Right now, we are in the watch and monitor phase, which means you have time to check your emergency supplies. Verify that your local emergency alert systems are active on your devices. Know your evacuation routes if you live in a surgone or floodprone area, and plan for the possibility that travel could be disrupted by heavy rain and flooding midweek, regardless of whether the system ever reaches hurricane strength.

[00:09:27]But if Bertha's center stays over the Gulf longer, it could be stronger, feeding off both the surface temperatures and the deep warm water that characterizes the central Gulf. The warm water is not just at the surface, but it's down below. Deep ocean heat content is the factor that separates the Gulf of Mexico from other warm ocean regions in terms of its ability to sustain and intensify tropical systems.

[00:09:48]When surface water is warm but shallow, a slowmoving or stalling storm churns up colder water from below, which cuts off its heat source and limits intensification. When the warm water extends hundreds of feet below the surface, that self-limiting mechanism does not operate the same way. The system just keeps feeding and the Gulf right now has that structure in the areas Bertha will be traversing this week. Here is where the forecast sits as of Sunday evening, July 19th, 2026.

[00:10:14]Tropical depression 2 is now official.

[00:10:17]It is becoming better organized. It is nearly stationary, which is allowing it to continue drawing from the warm Gulf water beneath it without the cold upwelling that a faster moving storm would generate. The NHC forecast calls for it to become tropical storm Bertha by Monday. The most likely track takes it west northwestward starting Tuesday, approaching the Louisiana coast Wednesday into Thursday and potentially continuing toward Texas afterward. Wind shear is expected to limit significant strengthening in the base case scenario.

[00:10:44]Heavy rainfall and flooding potential are the primary concerns for the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of how strong the system becomes on the wind scale, the uncertainty range in this forecast is meaningful. On the lower end, an earlier landfall keeps the system weaker and confines the impacts to the areas currently under watch. On the higher end, a more southerntherly track keeps it overwater longer, outpaces the shear, and allows development toward a strong tropical storm or in some model solutions, a category 1 hurricane approaching the central Texas coast. That higherend scenario is not the consensus forecast, but it is within the range of plausible outcomes, and the Gulf environment this week is capable of supporting it if the track cooperates. The variables that will resolve this forecast over the next 24 to 48 hours are exactly what you would expect. How far south does the track stay? Does the system develop a cleaner circulation structure that makes it more resistant to the wind shear?

[00:11:35]Does the shear itself weaken in the areas the storm will be traversing? All of those questions will be answered by the data coming in through tonight and tomorrow morning. Updates will reflect those answers and the forecast cone will narrow. For now, the areas that need to be most actively engaged with this situation are the Florida panhandle, where the watch is already in effect.

[00:11:54]The Mississippi and Alabama coasts, where tropical storm bands are expected to push inland, Louisiana, where the center may approach Wednesday into Thursday, and Texas, particularly the central coast, which is now in monitor mode given the westward track scenarios that a meaningful portion of the model ensemble is producing. As usual, the exact track of this future Bertha is uncertain, but in general, it could be near the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday into Thursday, then possibly into Texas. After that, the trends on the system are towards strengthening, not weakening. The water it is sitting over is warm at the surface and warm at depth. The track scenarios that allow it to stay overwater longer are being increasingly favored by the higher resolution model guidance. And the region it is moving toward is already dealing with saturated soils, elevated rivers, and a heat environment that is loading the atmosphere with the moisture a tropical system needs to produce extreme rainfall. This system is developing on a timeline that gives the northern Gulf Coast days, not hours, to prepare. Use that time appropriately.

[00:12:51]Follow the NHC advisories. Know your local emergency management system. Have a plan ready before conditions begin to deteriorate. And understand that even a relatively modest tropical storm producing training bands of heavy rain over the same area for multiple days can generate catastrophic flooding on a landscape that cannot absorb any more water. More updates are coming as the data comes in. The next 24 hours will answer a significant portion of the forecast uncertainty around both track and intensity. Pay attention to what the morning advisory says. That is when the picture will start to sharpen. And the Gulf this week is not done making news.