Arvest Bank Thursday 5/7 weekly AG/Drought segment. Plus, talking about potential severe weather.

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:01]Now, from the Bridgewater Roofing Weather Center, this [music] is your drought and agriculture outlook from Doug Heady Weather, brought to you by Arvest Bank.

[00:00:15]Hey guys, I hope you are enjoying your Thursday. Of course, every Thursday we do our ag and our drought segment. Of course, big shout out to our sponsor Arvest Bank and our drought monitor keeps looking better and better every single week. Bridgewater Roofing Weather Center takes care of you one roof at a time. Few months ago, we were in a pretty severe drought. We have zero drought. Kansas into Missouri still a little dry, northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but setting up much, much better. Of course, we always slide usually kind of drought-ish as we get into the summer. So, we want the rain now, of course, not the flooding, but we want it.

[00:00:56]Still big time drought, central western Kansas, Oklahoma looking better, Arkansas still struggling to get the very beneficial rain. If we look over the past week, lot of areas a trace to a quarter of an inch. We had those thunderstorms that drove right through northeastern parts of Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas. So, a little bit more for them, but if we look at the past 30 days, look at this. Joplin's 228% of where they should be on rain. So, of course, you want to be 100%, but once you get to 200%, you've doubled what you should get in the past month. We just had so much severe weather. Second half of March all the way through April, things have calmed down a little bit over the past week. And if we look at the past year, most of us are kind of 100 to about 115% of where we should be. All right, so we do have chances for thunderstorms again tomorrow. Midwest Storm Shelters, level one out of five severe threats. So, let's go ahead and dig into that. We're going to go through time, future cast, Pascola Air Plumbing and Electric.

[00:02:03]Maybe a random shower in our far northern counties to kick off your Friday.

[00:02:08]Most of the day's going to be fine, but Friday mid to late afternoon, some thunderstorms try to get going.

[00:02:15]Not much of a tornado threat here. These are mainly gusty winds, large hail. So, winds at 60, quarter-size hail. These drive southeast through the region.

[00:02:26]Here's 6:00 p.m., Springfield, Monett, back toward Grand Lake, Tulsa, and then start to spin out mainly after about 8:00 p.m. But, of course, we want to pay attention to those as they work through tomorrow night. Saturday looks good, but we do it again. Another front, another complex, showers, thunderstorms try to drive in. This is going to be Saturday night, kind of later, mainly after midnight. Most of these right now look like they're going to behave, but we could get some low-grade severe storms.

[00:02:59]So, of course, we're going to keep our eyes on that. Sunday, we have some showers to kick the day off, and then I think Sunday afternoon is looking pretty good across the region. So, we do have a couple shots to get some strong to low-grade severe storms. Let's go upstairs.

[00:03:15]The reason the pattern has kind of quieted down just a bit is this, northwest flow. So, we get our bigger storm systems kind of rotate out of the southwest. We are in this flow really from Canada right on top of us. So, it keeps us kind of in check. Now, we get these little ripples that rotate around the ridge, which give us some thunderstorms, but we don't have a big system with the just monstrous upper-level energy. Look at the ridge all next week means we really start to warm up. Once we get to about May 18th, May 19th, we get that southwest flow returning.

[00:03:57]And that's going to give us better chances to get some stronger storms, bigger severe weather outbreaks as we get a little bit closer to about May 20th, but still even after May 20th, dominant ridge in place, which is good news for severe weather season. Hopefully, we can ramp it down a little bit quicker. Of course, April very, very active.

[00:04:20]Uh May still is going to be active, but uh we can slide into that kind of summertime pattern. All right, so on Sunday, some showers to kick off the day. We look pretty good Monday, Tuesday. We have a front that slides in late Tuesday. That could give us some thunderstorms across the region. And then, we're just going to hang out near a front next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. So, we're going to have to watch for complexes of showers and thunderstorms trying to get going. And then, as we get into about May 17th, little better chances to get some thunderstorms, more organized thunderstorms. Here's May 19th. And then, after this, we kind of dry out a bit for several days, which is going to be nice to see. But of course, the month of May, always want to pay attention.

[00:05:09]Rainfall projections over the next couple weeks. Maple Leaf Furniture Company, this just kind of shows you where the heavier stripes could be with our storm systems that are going to be working through. Downstream Casino 7-day forecast for you. Let's go 77 on Friday, 81 Saturday, 70 on Sunday.

[00:05:29]Uh great temperatures all the way through next week.