El Niño Is Building: What History Says Comes Next

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]We're time traveling today, looking back at weather of the past. Have you ever thought about how weather really is memorable, right? You tie memories to what it was like. We're starting with some El Nino years. This was 1997. That May was cold, but April of 97 was even colder if you look at it. We're going to compare that to what we're looking at right now. But check this out. This was May of 97. Here is where we are right now. Okay, so there's some differences, right? But boy, doesn't it look interesting? These are temperature departures from average. A good, I don't know, 5 10° in some cases below average, especially the further east you go. And then take a look at where we were.

[00:00:40]Again, this would be the entire month of May of 1997. I will tell you this is only through May 10th. And there's going to be some warmer weather that starts to build into this region over the next couple of weeks. But at the same time, there's also going to be some much colder weather that's on the way later this month for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada. So, do we end up with something that kind of looks more like 1997? I I don't know. We'll we'll wait it. We'll see. But I I do want to take you through the summer of 97 just because this was a year that the El Nino, the ENSO index was strengthening through the summer into the winter. And it was a really strong winter. We had a lot of storms across the West Coast. But I want to show you how the summer looked. I mean, it was a little wet in the south in June. A lot of rain and thunderstorms kept temperatures down. By July, we had cooler than average temperatures across the west and that extended east as we head into August. And most of the cooler temperatures at this time of year associated with precipitation. As we headed into the fall of 97, this is where things really started to get active. October, November into December, specifically into California, the four corner states. We brought we started to bring some really big storms in around the end of the year that brought a lot of wind, rain, and snow. And a lot of that tracked across the south. It didn't mean you got snow storms. It just kept the precipitation up. But look what happened in January, specifically by February. Okay, this is this right here's classic El Nino setup. Cool, damp, and wet across the Southwest. Warm and arguably, I don't know, hot. It's not really hot. Let's be real. It's February. It's not going to get too hot in Minnesota, but it was a warm year for sure. And then by March, uh, yeah, we started to see a cool down and things started to slip away. But but an El Nino year typically is pretty warm across the northern US. Just for some comparison, this would be 2023, which was just last year or a couple years ago, right? If you think about it, it wasn't as impactful. At least we didn't have I mean, well, a very similar look, but uh for May, but look at the winter. Compare that to 1997. So, this just goes to show you that while you do see some similarities, I mean, we're into December. you started to see all that warmth up across the the upper Midwest into the prairies of Canada and then by January and February. So, so there's some differences, right? So, that's just goes to show that every El Nino year is a not the same. B, there are some patterns that develop within these uh large teleconnection weather makers, the the big things that control global weather patterns. But here's the thing, embedded within these setups can be some decent snowstorms.

[00:03:14]Some of you may remember some of those.

[00:03:15]Leave me a comment down below if you remember a big snow that maybe you got or a tough winter or maybe even in the fall or if there's something about the spring or summer you remember about those years. 2015 was another one of those years that we saw uh as we headed into winter, we had a strengthening El Nino. This was a a different year because we had a weak El Nino through the spring into the summer. Um so let's back this up through 2015, April, May. These look different, right?

[00:03:44]And maybe it it Well, it's because we had a little bit of an Elino setup, but it also depends on what's going on in the Arctic. So, more to come. I like to look back into the past for some clues. And I know we're stretching it pretty far out, but we're talking about the hurricane impacts, too. Will we start to feel some of that? I think we will, especially heading into the summer as the wind shear increases here across parts of the Gulf with that strengthening Elino setup. that would likely suppress tropical development, which would be a good thing. However, I think in the uh the short to long range, we've got to watch what's happening here across the the West Atlantic as we start to see a ridge start to set up. We start to become much more favorable heading into June. But right now, all is quiet. It's cool though, right? Let's talk about the short term through the next couple of days. This has been persistent. You've you've had this cold pocket of air just sitting and spinning across eastern Canada. Around that, we've had these impulses move through showers. We've had cool weather, cool enough for some snowflakes in some areas. Across the west, extreme heat out here as this big ridge starts to set up in the upper levels. Extreme heat wings across the southwest today, central valley of California. We'll see highs well into the triple digits, especially down here into the deserts, 105, maybe up to 110 for places like Phoenix. And then this upper high really starts to build north.

[00:05:08]Now, we're talking about heat into eastern Washington and Oregon. Yes, it's been warm, but now we've got real heat building in. Here comes the next change maker. It's moving toward the west coast. It'll cool us down. Further east, we will see temperatures warm up across the plains. Uh, but I'm going to let this go kind of quick. I want to show you this rotation that's happening across the Hudson Bay region. Right? I'm going to let this loop back around a couple of times.

[00:05:34]This right here, guys, this cyclonic flow, as long as we see this, we're just going to keep seeing these shots of cool weather. There's a change, though. Did you catch it at the end? The Europeans catching on to it. This would be heading into this week. Now, we're starting to see that by the 18th and the 19th. This is significantly different looking. The MJO starts to support this type of setup too with a much warmer east coast, arguably hot with this type of setup by the 19th and the 20th and the 21st.

[00:06:06]And this may last even toward the end of the month. And this warms us up all the way up into eastern Canada. This could be some summerlike temperatures setting up. Interestingly enough, at the same time, you've got big changes on the back side of this. I would say that this is some good news, right? If you can get that ridge to break down in the west just one more time before we start to develop a summer pattern. If we can get some kind of shortwave energy to dig into the west here like this, let's put a little more preip here into Utah and the Colorado into the four corner states where it was a very lackluster winter.

[00:06:39]We need some preip here for sure. And then if we look at the long range, the European weeklys also start to support a much warmer pattern across the east. And you can kind of see that little bit of a I mean these are using multiple members so you it's more of an ensemble guide.

[00:06:53]It's couple of members blended together.

[00:06:55]So the further out in time the flatter things get but a bit of a different look here across the west. A little too steep there. Sorry about that. You got much more of a trough digging in here. So that means some cooler weather and the heat builds and I think you start to get this big heat dome setting up this big ridge across the southern plains by the time we get towards the end of the month. More to come on that. that sounds interesting to you, subscribe and let's continue to track the weather together.

[00:07:20]It's going to rain across the south over the next week or so. At least there are chances for rain. Let's let this time out. We've got showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. So, a lot of this falling just over the next couple of days. Good news here. Good news up further to the north where it's getting pretty dry. I don't like this hole that's developing across Tennessee and North Carolina where the drought continues to strengthen. I was looking at some of the lake levels in this region. And I think Smith Mountain Lake out here in Virginia really low for this time of year. Other reservoirs in the south really low. I mean, just because this is the time of the year when lakes start to become at full pool, right?

[00:07:53]They start holding the water back. They start to build that up for summer recreation. Uh but but the thing is there's not a lot of water in the rivers and creeks.

[00:08:02]Hopefully, we can get some rain, but through the through Thursday, not a lot.

[00:08:05]Nor is there much rain back into this region, which actually is doing okay droughtwise, but not a lot of rain for the next week or so across the Dakotas and Nebraska, even into parts of Kansas, Colorado, uh, and also into the Southwest. Really dry and hot back here.

[00:08:20]The rain's going to come with some severe thunderstorms today across Texas.

[00:08:24]Damaging winds look to be the big risk across this region. There could also be some hail, a few tornadoes also possible. tornado risk. This is, you know, not zero, but it's not off the charts for a day that's looking pretty significant with severe weather.

[00:08:38]Tomorrow, everything shifts off to the southeast. We're still watching this area again. Really dry across Georgia, South Carolina, Florida. So, some welcome news on uh with the rain at least. Let's take you through the next at least a week or so and we'll back things out a little bit and show you across the country. Show you a view, I should say, looking across the country.

[00:08:58]Words are tough on this Sunday. uh cold weather I let's just call it what it is into eastern Canada underneath this upper low this cold pocket of air that's just spinning and it's bringing that reinforcing cold across Michigan into Wisconsin into Minnesota into the northeast New York Vermont New Hampshire temperatures on the way down. Couple of ski resorts still open. Killington still skiing on Superstar. If you're not familiar with what I'm talking about, it's really interesting that they build this massive glacier on the slope there.

[00:09:28]And they're still skiing it today. And with the colder weather moving, it'll be interesting to see, can they make it to June?

[00:09:35]Maybe, especially if it stays cool like this. Some of you are sick of the cool weather in the Northeast.

[00:09:41]Uh, I don't take a side on the weather.

[00:09:42]Some people like the cool, some don't.

[00:09:44]Warm weather across the central US.

[00:09:46]Temperatures warming up, especially up into even further north into Canada. A little bit of welcome rain here into Manitoba. southern parts of Ontario.

[00:09:54]Look at the snow mixing in. Yeah, on the northern side of this could be cold enough for some snow and some lighter rain showers to the south. Not a lot of moisture to work with as this front drops south. So again, not good news in an area that's dry. We could use some rain. And then as we head toward the end of the week, things start to get a little active, a little bit cooler across the Pacific Northwest with some rain moving in and uh maybe even some snow still flying into the northern Rockies, into the Canadian Rockies. And as snow levels drop, we could get some snow back further to the west across British Columbia and also into Montana.

[00:10:26]Now we're working into next weekend.

[00:10:28]We're getting pretty far out, but you get an idea of how things are setting up. And in my opinion, you're starting to get warm and humid now. You've got some moisture to work with. And hopefully we can get some rain going here into the south into the southeast where it's really dry. And uh this looks hot across the southwest heading into next weekend. Speaking of hot temperatures today, pretty warm into the nation's capital, up to New York City, Trenton, New Jersey, down to the Jersey Shore tomorrow, a different story. We get knocked back into the 50s.

[00:11:01]We might not get to 50 in some of these spots uh as temperatures are a little held back because of the cloud cover.

[00:11:07]And then a cold night. Let's call it what it is. Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures dropping again below freezing into interior areas of the Northeast. 30s as far south as the mountains of North Carolina. Back into Indiana, Illinois, and then highs heading into Tuesday. Warming back up a little bit warmer. At least we're back up into the 60s. Further to the west, look at these temperatures today dropping as that front moves south into Texas. Highs today will be in the 70s and 60s north of the front. Tomorrow though, temperatures rebound behind this front and that strong May sun kicks in.

[00:11:38]We'll be into the mid 80s. I mean, close to 90 for places like Pier, even up into up towards Cheyenne, Denver, up into the 80s. Warmer weather ahead here. And then across the southwest, really hot across the far southwest. It's even hot, too. Uh further north into the central valley of California, triple digits for Bakersfield, north to uh Modesto. Really warm into California. And that's also extending up into the mountains, too.

[00:12:06]Highs will be easily in the 60s and 70s.

[00:12:10]And then, uh, heading into Tuesday, looks even hotter. Specifically for places like Boisey, could be 94 degrees.

[00:12:17]Summer's here, folks. It's right around the corner. Anyway, see you next time.

[00:12:21]Have a great Sunday.