WHERE BULL MARKETS BEGIN, We've Reached It, Bitcoin Price Chart, XRP & Altcoin Market New Chapter

[00:00:13]Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.

[00:00:22]Today we'll be taking a look over here at the Bitcoin price chart which sits at a little bit over $66,000. I'm I'm recording at the start of this week.

[00:00:30]We'll take a peek over there at the XRP price chart, which is seeing some green at$1.23, while we have green across the board over here to kick off the halfway point of the month as stocks are rampaging with the Dow up over 800 points in pre-market. The S&P up 162.

[00:00:45]The Nasdaq up 940 points in pre-market with the Russell in new all-time highs, knocking on 3000's door, coming off the announcement last night from Donald Trump about opening up the straight and letting oil flow freely. And while crypto is responding at the same time, of course, the last couple of weeks have been nothing but fear narratives to scare everybody. However, as we've pointed to, it's the onchain losses that have finally hit their marks that have historically always marked that the bottom is happening right now. As I announced there on June 2nd, 1% daily auto buys activated, 51% entered. With today now being the 15th, I'm about 64% entered into this market. And we'll look at those technical signals on the charts to of course explain why. But really, one of the most important metrics out here has been these onchain losses finally hitting their mark. We've talked about this a lot in past videos, tweets, newsletters. Spoke about it at the Wave of Innovation Conference. I'll play the clip of that in my last video, but here in these last couple of weeks, we've hit 10.47 million coins in a loss. And that has historically been as far as Bitcoin was willing to go from a price draw down perspective through any of the bare markets. Even if we go way back in here to 2011, 2012, of course, there weren't as many coins in circulation, but as that has slowed down here, really this 10.5 marker has been the absolute end of every bear throughout all of Bitcoin's price history, and we just now hit that.

[00:02:15]So, it's one of those things that we've talked about a lot back in February saying Bitcoin getting to 9 million coins and a loss is very close but not quite 10.5 million. So, onchain doesn't tell us with certainty that the bottom is in. Neither do the technical indicators, but both of them say we could be or dang near it. And with that happening in the last two weeks, that has always been the marker of where we are at the low. Even over here on glass node, our supply in a profit dips down into the levels that historically marks bottoms. And of course, we reached that moment where more supply was in a loss than in a profit and couldn't stay there very long. Now we're right back to it.

[00:02:53]We're back into supply in a profit, exceeding supply and a loss as we typically do down in here. It doesn't last very long. And Bitcoin, of course, being back at $66,000. So now the question comes, will we build a bullish divergence down in here to do this?

[00:03:08]Well, the price dipped down a little bit over $900. If you remember at the peaks, we talked a lot about bearish divergences happening up here as the market was getting weaker from the peaks, right? Then we build bullish divergences at the bottom as price shifts down, but the weakness starts to fade, right? If we're in that situation right in here, the technicals suggest we're at the levels for it to do it. The onchain losses suggest we're at the place to do it. Every time we've hit 10.5 million coins in a loss, we can see what happened with the market afterwards. Back in 2015, we kicked off the bull market after we hit the 10.5.

[00:03:45]When we hit 10.5 back in 2018, right, that was the low. It did accumulate for a while, but that was our literal low.

[00:03:52]And then, of course, when we hit 10.5 back in 2022, the FTX collapsed and then we move our way up. So, I see a lot of people over there on X the last couple of weeks just saying this is as bad as the FTX collapse. If not, it's worse than the FTX collapse, which of course I have not felt that way at all. However, the onchain data suggests it and the technical perspective of where we're at suggested as well. So, we'll mark this chart up a little bit cleaner here to point that out and take a look down here at the relative strength index over here on the weekly time frame. Of course, we dip down into the areas where capitulation has already occurred. Where did we hit 10.5 million? Every bottom has been different. We've harped on that the entire time. In 2015, it doesn't set a new low. In 2018, it happens during the capitulation phase and recovers. And in 2022, it goes $2,000 below the capitulation low. In our current circumstance, we've gone $925 below the capitulation low, which would insinuate a bullish divergence happening here. As long as this holds, which would be similar to 2022, but technically speaking, past the point of capitulation. Now, at the point where we've hit the 10.5 million coins in a loss based on the historical behavior of the cryptocurrency market, it's hard to build a case for much more than this.

[00:05:06]That's why I'm accumulating it. I would have to essentially argue just a gut feeling that it's going to go down when I already have the technical signal saying we've already capitulated and now we've hit the 10.5 million coins and a loss total or the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market behaving exactly like what has happened in past bare markets while also getting right down near that 300 week moving average which is what we historically do and at the same time we have our IGV cooperating while we have stocks on an absolute rampage. If anything, this is the biggest bullish divergence we're having happen in markets right now where you have stocks completely ripping and now we've hit our unchained losses. I do think everybody is probably waiting for just cyclical behavior to happen and for things to take much longer than they should. Um, however, for any argument saying we have to go much deeper into the year, um, what that data doesn't account for is that if you're waiting for that moment to come, well, yes, in November of 2022, that's where the low of Bitcoin happens. In December of 2018, that's where the low happens. But what also happens at that time is we hit the 10.5 million coins in a loss. So, here we are in June, we're hitting 10.5 million coins in a loss right now. So you can sit there and wait and say, "Oh, it's got to take till September, October, November, December, whatever you want." But you are having to ignore the fact that the 10.5 is already being hit. So for that, I have absolutely no problem being on daily auto accumulations here in the cryptocurrency market. If anything, I'm super excited.

[00:06:33]It was like so relaxing having to go to going to North Carolina last week to work on stuff from the hurricane Helen back in 2024. We're doing some rebuilding and stuff, but I didn't have to think about anything. I just had the auto accumulations running the whole time. They're still running right now, but on a bigger time frame, this has historically always been the best time.

[00:06:52]So, I have no problem taking my shot on what has historically been the best time. And just kind of a funny observation of what we've seen so far is there's similarities happening in here like we also saw in 2022 where you do have Bitcoin sweeping that low by a matter of, you know, $900. And just like in 2022, right, Total comes in here and sweeps that low just barely like we did back then. But as crazy as it is, others or the altcoin market excluding the top 10 did not sweep that low. And and that was something similar we saw back in 2022 when the FTX collapse happened that a lot of coins did not set a new low.

[00:07:29]And so that's one of the topics I talk about in the newsletter that I published this morning is analyzing altcoins with a bid as we're starting to go back through that data again. If you remember back in the last cycle talking about developer activity, percentage draw downs, user activity, top 20 by market cap. What ended up being the winner in the past 2021 cycle, right? It was the ones that had the bids underneath them.

[00:07:49]That was also true in 2024 and 2025.

[00:07:52]Those coins that maintained a bid throughout the bear ended up having better returns as a group average. So, I think it's real important to start going through this stuff now. Now that we've hit 10.5 million coins and a loss for Bitcoin, this is typically where sentiment is going to be at its lowest.

[00:08:07]I think we saw that in the last two weeks where people are screaming this is as bad as or or worse than FTX. All hope is lost, right? Sailor selling Zcash, right? All this stuff AI, but where is the bid? And while XRP has done a full completed bare market, still it maintained itself pretty well at about, you know, 77% draw down. you know, Bitcoin a little bit over 50%, Ethereum in that same boat like 75%. So, those have held up really well during all of this being a fully completed bare market from an onchain perspective and really from just a visual perspective. And of course, the technical perspective. So, you know, that's not the case for everything. There's a lot of stuff that's down, you know, in the mid80s, low 90s, high 90s. Couldn't believe it.

[00:08:48]I looked at the Trump coin down 98%. But that's what typically happens during bare markets. There's this separation of where stuff has an underlying bid and stuff does not. Unfortunately, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Binancecoin, Hyperliquid, a lot of those really hold themselves up very well. But, you know, things like Trump, Stacks, Fetch AI, Injective, Filecoin, Vchain, and Jupiter, all going over 90% just since 2024, right? That's not even since the 2021 top. That's just since 2024. And those numbers sound dramatic and and they are, but the reality is during bare markets, those are the types of numbers that we do see. We see separations of things that have a bid and separations of things that don't have a bid. And it's when we're seeing those numbers of 96, 97, 98% down, it's the evidence of that we've been in an actual bare market. We should be looking at it through the lens of a bare market. We should be looking at it through the lens of what marks the bottom. And the bottom is when we hit those 10.5 million coins in a loss for Bitcoin or more coins are in a loss than in a profit like for Ethereum and XRP and for Bitcoin. But then also looking, you know, who's holding a bit and like I'm just here to tell you at least if with XRP holders, right? Like you've been held holding up well. So has Bitcoin, so has Ethereum, Hyperlid, Binancecoin. There's a lot of coins that are still holding up very well, but we see the symbolism of what happens of reaching bottoms of bears.

[00:10:06]And I do realize for most people thinking, "Wow, down 75% is holding up."

[00:10:10]Well, I know, but we just we have to go based off of every cycle and every comparison of what does this environment look like? And this is what they look like, and this is what tells you whether or not something has been holding up well. We love this market because it produces massive potential to the upside percentage-wise. But with that, of course, the corrections are much bigger.

[00:10:28]The problem is most people enter into the market once the all-time high is broken and don't want anything to do with it when it's down here at the bottom. But the bulk of the percentages are made during the phase of actually getting from this moment all the way back up in here. And then there's typically not quite as much to be made once you actually escape. So to be successful in this market, it has been proven time and time again that we have to be paying attention to the market in these types of situations down in here.

[00:10:55]Because if we only wait until we get to right here or right here, well, guess what? It's over much, you know, a lot faster than we expect it to happen. But the truth of the matter is, like I I get it, like sentiment-wise, it's hard to be excited in environments like this. But when you are just data focused and you don't pay attention to any of the narratives or anything like that, and you only looked at data, when do people get hyped? When do people sing kumbaya?

[00:11:19]When are they holding hands and doing Twitter spaces and playing, oh, pump it up, right? They're doing it when we're like breaking through all-time highs.

[00:11:27]But the truth of the matter is that the true real spot where like everybody should be holding hands and singing kumbaya is when we get to this milestone cuz this is historically the milestone that the bull market starts from these levels, right? We go through topping, we go through crashing, we go through accumulation, and then we go into the start of the bull market. For most people, the start of the bull market is when everybody's pouring in with excitement at the peak or when we're breaking out into the high. But the true start of the bull market, whether you think about it that way or you don't think about it that way, when FTX collapsed, that was the start of the bull market right then, right there, when we're all listening to Sam Beckman Freed on those Twitter spaces, when we're waiting for the next collapse to happen of Luna or who's going to get blown up during all of this. The bull market had already begun right there, right when FTX collapsed. It didn't start at the break of the high. It didn't start halfway up when people are still screaming that we're going to 12K.

[00:12:24]It started there. And symbolically, we have done exactly what has happened at the start of every bull market. No matter which one we look at, every time we hit it, that's the start of the bull market. And so, should we be singing Kumbaya and holding hands right now?

[00:12:39]Yeah, probably. The problem is everybody's upside down, right? Well, that is if you didn't sell the top. But I'm buying. I'm happy to be a buyer.

[00:12:47]These are the conditions we wait for. Of course, I don't know the future. I don't know what's going to happen next. I'm basing everything on the data that's presented in front of me. And that's just how investing works. It's how speculating in markets works. You you take your shot with the information presented in front of you. And guess what? This is certainly where I'm taking my shot because I also hate coming on here trying to be a hype man. I really try to keep everything super data packed. And the reality is the data does kind of present kind of like a hypy kind of thing going on here. I mean, we have now just hit the onchain losses for not just Bitcoin, but Ethereum has hit it too, right? 54 million coins in a loss marked the literal low of Ethereum after the FTX collapse back in 2022. Right there. And look where we are over there on the right side of the screen. We have hit it. But at the same time, the most fascinating hypy dynamic about that, about hitting those levels is like what is a recovery going to look like?

[00:13:40]Everybody anticipates it's going to be something slow. It's going to take a year or two for it to come back up. But the difference is when we did that type of fall for the crypto market back in 2022 and it took a long time for it to recover, stocks were also down there as well. There was no breadth happening in the market. And this time we have a raging stock market already. a massive bullish divergence presented here with the Russell 2000 taking off. You know, not to mention that the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq are ripping, but we also already have IGV way off of this low.

[00:14:13]And it just wouldn't shock me if this type of recovery like we looked for over here on IGV happened here in the crypto market as well, where it just kind of ranges here at the low, right? It goes and sweeps the low really quick and then boom, it just shoots its way back up.

[00:14:29]Normally, I would not want to present that type of hypy narrative to happen.

[00:14:33]But the thing is, you guys know it from watching this channel. I'm always looking at breadth. I'm always looking at macro conditions at the exact same time. And we don't have a stock market telling us that we need to sit around and wait. We just hit the onchain losses. And we have stocks just absolutely ripping. So, those who are going to be waiting until September and October and November, I get your point.

[00:14:51]I get what has happened in each of the past cycles because that's where the bottoms come in is once we get there.

[00:14:57]The thing that people aren't probably paying attention to is that it actually comes in coordination with the 10.5 million coins getting into a loss and the fact that we have stocks already ripping. I think it's going to be an interesting dynamic moving forward. So, I will say I don't know how much time we're going to have to spend down here or if it's even going to struggle right in here and then waddle and do this whole thing in here to get up like it did in 2022. Predicting that type of short-term time frame is very difficult to do on if it's going to have the bid to just be able to shoot its way back up. I'm just going to continue accumulating through this right in here till I get to 75%. take a moment to kind of step back for a second, see how things are going, and then assess how I want to enter in the last 25%. Whether that's immediately, whether that's six months from now, or a different setup.

[00:15:42]Either way, being at 75% will mean I'm mostly in the market. I'm mostly exposed to the long side at this point. I'm just saving that last 25% for something. And not really sure what that's going to be just yet, but I will have entered 25 here, 25 in here, and then now 25 throughout down in here. kind of averaging as I started here and then it spent, you know, a solid 10, 11 days going through these things and then getting in here. It's probably where my average is right in here right now, which will essentially put, you know, the bulk of my accumulation happening right there at this level when my two exits at the top were here and here.

[00:16:18]Putting my average right around there.

[00:16:20]So, uh, either way, I think it's been a successful bare market with how we treated it and played it. There's still a little bit more to go to see how, you know, this thing is going to shape and form, but I definitely could not build a stronger case for accumulating here than with what we're seeing in the market. I don't know what type of point to prove otherwise to put it into the bears corner. I think the bulls essentially have everything in their corner. Now, back on April 14th, I wrote a newsletter where I did the bear case versus the bull case again and essentially went through everything we talked about in September to prove that the Bears had the better case than the bulls did before the October 10th liquidation happened. And so here in April, just two months ago, I went through and said, "Let's do the bear case and the bull case once again." And as we could see, the bulls have a whole lot more over on their side than they did back in September and October of last year. The only thing the bears really had on their side is, you know, cycle timing. Does it still need to go to September or October? People could argue that still fine the bears have that in their corner. But the things that were neutral that have now shifted over into the bullish side are going to be the lack of bullish divergences. Is there one more flush? We just got it. And as I just showed, if it sustains itself, there's your bullish divergence. And that the onchain losses show near end of a bear.

[00:17:32]Is there one more push for the last 10% of the onchain losses? Because we were at 9 billion and historically we get to 10.5. So both of these now shift over in here into the bull corner. DXY double bottom doesn't mean anything anymore.

[00:17:46]I've talked about that in markets in the morning. Does this thing even give us any signal at any point whatsoever anymore? It's hard. It might be something we don't even talk about anymore. I discussed that in this newsletter, but still included it in the neutral because it's unknown on whether or not it has any meaning. But both of these moved into the bull now. And then the altcoin breath still remaining as neutral because it's not even going to flip until well after the bottom is already in. We won't even see that flip until $82,000 is broken. So, it's going to remain in this neutral stance the whole time. So, the two things that we have in neutral remaining are the DXY double bottom, which we're not even certain it has any meaning anymore, and the altcoin Brett, which is not even going to flip on until 82,000 is broken.

[00:18:28]But the two that were in neutral, the lack of the bullish divergence could be printing itself right now, like I just showed, putting it into the bull category. And onchain losses, one more push for the last 10%, we just got it.

[00:18:40]Now that moves over here into the bull.

[00:18:42]So the bears only argument to this day, they have one argument and one argument only. It has to go to September or October for the sake of it going till September or October. The thing they're not accounting for is that their equation also says that's when 10.5 million coins get into a loss. But their equation does not account for 10.5 million coins going into a loss already.

[00:19:04]So the only bare argument is to just say it has to go to September or October.

[00:19:09]That's it. But it doesn't account for the fact that 10.5 has already been hidden. And then for neutral, it's DXY questionable altcoin breadth, which won't even happen till later. But both of these are now bull arguments. And so that was covered back then on April 14th, 2 months and 1 day ago. And now we can see what it has updated itself to.

[00:19:27]Nearly everything is in the bull. The two neutral arguments are weak neutral arguments. And the bare argument is based simply on timing, but doesn't even account for that. Their timing equation is actually for when we hit 10.5 million coins in a loss and we actually just hit it last week. So again, I don't want it to be super focused on what the short-term time frame is because I'm doing it at 1% per day. If I thought we were going to fire up straight to $82,000 tomorrow, I wouldn't even sit here and do 1%. I'd just go ahead and blast it all in right now. I don't know when FTX collapsed. It took about 2 months for this to round itself out before it started shooting its way up.

[00:20:06]So don't want to sit here and create this argument that we go straight up today or tomorrow. It's simply pointing to much larger time frames here and that the argument for the bulls is ridiculous right now. The issue is of course sentiment never feels that way. But that's always where the bottom is. It's where the sentiment is at its worst. So whether it feels that way or it doesn't from a data perspective, this is where we should all start the oh pump it up.

[00:20:29]These are the metrics that we look for.

[00:20:31]Sometimes it takes some time for this stuff to round itself out and for it to really kind of truly bottom in here. But based on all historical data of this market, my bet is we are likely not going to have to wait until September or October. But we're actually building the real true bottom in here, which has been the argument. The capitulation was back in February. It sweeped $900 below it, which was always possible. I've written about it a dozen times, talked about it in conferences, talked about it in videos. Others didn't even go into a new low. A lot of coins did not. I wrote about that in here, too, showing those coins that did not go into new lows. But it's an exciting time. It It marks this is where the end of it all happens. This is where the new phase begins, right?

[00:21:11]We've been into the crash. We've been into the accumulation. Now we can realistically sit there without that dark cloud over the top of us saying, "Man, is that onchain stuff gonna hit?"

[00:21:21]Guess what? It has now. Now we can like more responsibly sit there and create an argument to say, "Bull market, come on, let's start." So, all right, that's going to be it. Thank you for your patience. I know I was gone all last week. I'll probably fill you guys in on that on markets in the morning when we're just kind of goofing off and talking and I I don't want to take too much time in your in this video cuz we're already at over 20 minutes. Um, I'll be here most of this week. I will be gone Friday and several days next week, but I'll be here Monday through Thursday. So, we'll we'll keep our eyes on the market all week. And in the meantime, check out the newsletter that I just published this morning. It's one of my longer ones. It's 43 minutes long.

[00:21:55]I have an audio recording that goes with it. It finally happened. Bitcoin hit the onchain mark. Accumulating the onchain historic signal. Sentiment and narratives identical. Analyzing altcoins with a bid. That's available over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com.

[00:22:09]It's worth your time to read it and listen to it cuz I spent a lot of time writing and recording it. So, there's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise, I hope you had a wonderful weekend. Thank you so much for watching. If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser, but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back. Have a good one.