Texas Storms Continue This Week: Heavy Rain, Hail & Flooding Risk

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]A new week with the same old weather. We have more thunderstorm chances across the state and I'm sure they'll be just as unpredictable as they were last week.

[00:00:08]Let's tell you all about it in this Monday edition of your Texas weather roundup.

[00:00:22]Hi there, I'm Texas Stormchasers Baldi and Chief David Rhyr. It is Monday the 25th of May 2026. It is Memorial Day. A big thank you to all those who have and are serving us and who have given the ultimate sacrifice so I can sit here and babble about the weather. In terms of the weather we are expecting over the next few days, well, how about we talk about what's going on right now? You're looking at a satellite radar loop over the last several hours across the state of Texas. As you can see, most of the state has been calm overnight to this morning. an exception being parts of the hill country into the big country in eastern Concho Valley. We had a small messcale convective vortex at just a fancy word for a small area of low pressure that helped keep thunderstorms ongoing overnight and resulted in quite a bit of rain in some of these areas. Uh these become a little more common in the summer months when we don't have an upper level heat dome or high pressure ridge overhead to suppress the lift during afternoon thunderstorm activity.

[00:01:25]You get a bunch of storms and then sometimes they're able to form into small areas of low pressure which then keep the storm chances going into the night and the following day. That's what we have had happen here. And that MCV is centered over the Brownwood area early this afternoon. As we go into the afternoon hours, the smaller concentrated area of heavier rains is going to weaken and we're going to see a expanding of scattered popup thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country into South Central Texas.

[00:02:00]And then with an abundant amount of tropical moisture in place, we'll see the same thing across southeast Texas and East Texas. This is a summertime like pattern, not a springtime, you know, afternoon softball size hail falling out of the sky situation.

[00:02:14]However, as these storms go up rapidly in this summertime environment, they most certainly will be able to pump out quite a bit of cloud to ground lightning, we'll see some pocket change size hail and very strong but localized wind gust known as micro bursts out of the most intense storms and quite a bit of rain as well. But localized far more miss than hit and that is expected to be the afternoon threat. In fact, we'll take a look at the high-res rapid refresh model, and I'll just go ahead and let you know now, we are going to have a busier Tuesday and Wednesday, but we'll get to that. This model again showing the highest chance of afternoon thunderstorms across parts of North Texas, central Texas. I think we're going to have some activity back into the Hill Country as well along with southeast Texas and South Central Texas.

[00:03:02]A good chunk of that activity should weaken and dissipate within a couple hours of sunset thereabouts hanging into this evening. Now, let's talk about tomorrow and we are going to be dealing with a busier pattern as we see a weak upper level storm system move across the state of Texas. We are looking at the potential of scattered afternoon severe thunderstorms across the Peran Basin down into the Edwards Plateau. what some of you weather folks may know as the Fort Stocktoning where we see storms fire up just west of Fort Stockton and then well the rest is history usually with the risk of severe storms. Uh the most intense storms tomorrow afternoon could produce very large hail up to the size of tennis balls. Localized damaging winds over 70 miles an hour. And we can't rule out a tornado around the Fort Stockton area down towards Del Rio during the late afternoon. If we see any particularly organized supercell thunderstorms take hold. With time, we're going to see a line or a cluster of storms that's going to move off to the east into the Concho Valley, Hill Country, Rio Grand Plains, South Texas, and South Central Texas into the morning hours on Wednesday. We may also see a few popup afternoon severe storms in the Hill Country and South Central Texas ahead of that line tomorrow afternoon when the main and then the main line will come rolling in later in the evening. So that's going to be something to keep in mind if you are voting tomorrow uh in the election. So in terms of the severe weather outlook, we have that.

[00:04:41]But and this may be the more pressing issue we have to deal with. This is going to be the risk of flash flooding, especially tomorrow night into Wednesday morning across West Texas, the Peringham Basin, the Edwards Plateau, the Hill Country, down into the Concho Valley, North Texas, Central Texas, South Central Texas, uh even into parts of the Rio Grand Plains. And again, this is the risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

[00:05:09]Now, a decent number of us have had a pretty good amount of rain over the last few weeks. Soils are more saturated than they were. So, whenever we get new rain, it doesn't take as much rain to cause runoff and then rapid onset flooding.

[00:05:25]So, that's going to be an issue tomorrow night, especially with some of the uh thunderstorms that may try to move more slowly and or multiple storms move over the same locations. Now going into the day Wednesday, the threat moves to the eastern half of Texas. We'll be looking at the potential of maybe a few strong storms, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall with the potential of localized instances of flash flooding and rapid onset flooding. That means street flooding, flooding of construction zones, uh some pretty quick quick wow rises on creeks and streams, and then all that water will eventually go into rivers, which may get pushed up into flood stage at certain points. So, let's go back to the high-res rapid refresh model. And again, this is just a model. It's probably not going to have everything all hunky dory correct because, well, then we wouldn't need to be here. But here I am. Yep. Yep. You can see storms just blast east tomorrow night, but not real quick uh Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. And then you can see that model has storms continuing in southeast Texas for your Wednesday morning commute. So if this is right again, we're going to have storms tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, even into tonight, tomorrow morning, West Texas, the perian based in eastern New Mexico, and then it just gets all rambunctious tomorrow afternoon and evening and moves east. And again, there's going to be a lot of lightning, a lot of rain, locally heavy rain with flash flooding issues in spots. And then, of course, some of those storms could also be throwing out some hail and strong winds. Now, beyond Wednesday morning, let's take a look at the European weather model. You can see this thing does keep rain chances going through the day Wednesday across the eastern half of Texas. Going into Thursday, same thing. Rain chances could continue. Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas. But, and this is a big butt, things should generally start to be a little calmer for the second half of the work week for several regions of Texas. But, how many times have I said that now? I guess we need to start a counter. Y'all in the comment section below can do that for me. We may still see some opportunity for thunderstorm chances continuing on Thursday and Friday. And then going into the weekend, we may have another upper level storm system move through that could bring a return to active weather, showers, thunderstorms with some heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning going into Saturday, Sunday, and then early next week. The overall pattern does tend to be favoring that kind of a continuation of the active weather.

[00:08:10]Here's the Climate Prediction Cent's long range outlook. March or March, good grief, May 30th through June 3rd. You can see we have a pretty good chance of above average precipitation chances continuing uh including uh western parts of the state of Texas which need the rain. So that would actually be some pretty good news. Uh you know we definitely still need to fill up some of the aquifers. We definitely still need some areas of drought eliminated in western parts of Texas. Uh as evidenced by the fact we had destructive wildland urban interface fires in the panhandle not two weeks ago. So, you know what?

[00:08:46]The way things are looking here, I am hoping we are about to bring y'all out west some beneficial rains. With that pattern as well, temperatures would tend to stay on the cooler side, uh, below average. Now, the average for late May and early June is still warm, right?

[00:09:01]It's not like we're in February or March anymore, but still highs in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, uh, versus 90s and triple digits. That'd be pretty nice, wouldn't it? So, you know, with that, we're going to have to keep an eye on storms as they pop up this afternoon. Especially for those of you outdoors. When thunder roars, it's time to get your kester indoors. All right? We don't want you being struck by lightning or injured by lightning. If you're out on area lakes, keep an eye out for nearby thunderstorms that could send out uh outflow outflow boundaries. Those little green lines you see on the radar sometimes, those are your gusty wind fronts that can arrive suddenly and result in a rapid change in wind direction and gusty winds, which is dangerous to those of you out on the water. And of course, we don't want you getting struck by lightning either. So, same thing. Uh then tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday, uh yeah, we're going to have plenty of storms in the state to deal with. Again, some of those could be strong to severe, but we're really going to be watching for localized heavy rain. Uh, pretty good about widespread rains really, but some locally higher amounts that could exceed 3 to 5 in in a few spots, and that would definitely cause some flooding issues. So, you can keep an eye on the sky with the free Texas Stormchasers interactive weather radar on our website, texastormchasers.com/raar.

[00:10:23]The free Texas stormchasers mobile app.

[00:10:25]Just search for Texas Stormchasers where you download that to your device. You can also watch our 247 live weather radar stream right here on YouTube. Just search for David Rhymer, Baldi and Chief or Texas Stormchasers. You can also watch in our mobile app and on our homepage of our website under the article section in the app. All right, thanks for tuning in y'all. Have a amazing day. Stay weather aare and when thunder roars get your kester indoors.

[00:10:50]We'll talk to you later. God bless.