Successful player props betting requires analyzing multiple factors including player statistics (OPS, strikeout rates, historical performance), opponent strength, game context (comeback situations, revenge games), and situational factors like home field advantage and playoff pressure. For example, when predicting Aaron Judge's fantasy score, analysts consider his historical performance against specific opponents, the opponent's offensive capabilities, and game script factors like revenge motivation. Similarly, predicting Chris Sale's strikeouts involves examining his recent strikeout totals, opponent offensive consistency, and bullpen support. The key insight is that player props betting combines quantitative statistical analysis with qualitative contextual assessment to identify value opportunities.
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MLB & NBA Player Props Best Bets Today 5/20/26 | The Prop-Up PodHinzugefügt:
Yo, what's up with y'all boys and girls, man? Hey, welcome back to the Prop Up Pod. I'm with my guy Ron Romanelli. We're trying to cook up a prize pick slip, man. We trying to cash one. Um, what's happening, Ron? How you doing today? I sold yesterday. Ah, I got to be better.
>> No, it's okay. I I sold last week plenty of times, but yep, it was nice to see the two baseball props get there. I think we're building something here. I think, you know, we just got to the guys that we expect to do some things. I mean, they got to perform. They got to perform. And Jacob Lopez, I've got a lot of expectations for you and your career long term. Got to be better than what we saw last night.
>> Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep.
And uh I was quite surprised to see Donovan Mitchell, you know, uh play as well as he played early in that game.
You know, second half was more what I was expecting. Uh >> yep. But, you know, shout out to the Knicks. What a comeback. What a game. Two great games to start the conference finals. First time ever both game ones in the conference finals have gone to overtime.
>> Okay.
>> So, it looks like we're in for a treat here in these conference finals.
[snorts] >> Moneym Wednesday, though. Uh, let's cook one up. Let's break them down. Shout out to our sponsor, Prospects, where new users get $50 in lineups instantly when you download the app and play $5. Use the code HMA. There's a link in the description below, man. Let's cook one up.
Per usual, you're batting lead off.
Where you taking us today? Let's do it.
We're going to go to Coors Field. Should have a fun game at Coors today. Rangers Rockies. I'm looking at a player that a lot of people may maybe haven't heard of. Troy Johnston.
You're gonna hear about him pretty soon.
He's having a great season. Troy Johnston. I like him over a half a hit run RBI. Gonna go Goblin. Just try to see one go through the net here. Uh we got our Goblins to get through yesterday. Brian Reynolds has had a big day, but Gunner only had that one single. But Johnston, he has been excellent this season. 848 OPS hitting 320. He has been even better against righties, of course, because he's a lefty. He's got a 950 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He has faced Jack Lighter in the past and he's gotten a home run off of him. He's two for three with a bomb against Jack Lighter with a uh 1.145 expected slugging percentage. It was a nuke. I think at Korsfield here, you know, he's in good form. He uh went two for four yesterday, had a home run not too long ago. I think Johnston can put together a strong performance whether he is the one creating the offense or if they pitch around him, he gets on base and scores a run for us. But give me that over hits run RBI for Troy Johnston.
>> All right, Mr. Johnson, bounce back outing for you today. Uh them boys got belt yesterday 100.
My Rangers did bounce back and get a win yesterday. We'll see if the Rockies offense can get back going. and they did win the first game of the series. So, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see. I'm rocking with you today, Mr. Johnston.
>> Um, for me, I'll my first one I'll stick on the diamond. I'm going to go pitcher strikeouts area I'm pretty comfortable in.
Yesterday, it was really the first one.
Pitcher strikeout we really didn't see go through the board. Mr. Lopez just didn't have a good outing. This guy right here, I'm really not worried about him not having a good outing. I mean, I call him mama that man. Uh, look, he's been dominant recently. Although the Braves have lost his last two starts, really wasn't his fault. Um, going Chris S.
um 7Ks, 9Ks, 11Ks, 7Ks, 8Ks. Here's the thing. The Marlins, this is an offense that's kind of been inconsistent, struggling up and down. I was so surprised to see Martine Perez with 10 yesterday.
They let Martine Perez give them 10ks.
That's crazy. Um, so mama that man Chris Cell in a somewhat bounceback outing because the Braves have lost his last two starts. I I don't think it's too crazy to say he has a really good outing today. So even line at seven and a half I think is a good look.
You could go Goblin, but I honestly think you could go demon.
Eight and a half. That on on my personal slip, I'm probably going to go eight and a half. For this one, I might just go seven and a half. What do you think, Ron? Should I should I go seven and a half or should we go eight and a half on the slip?
>> I'd say seven and a half is good. The Marlins 29% K rate against lefties in May. Like you said, Perez getting 10ks, but you know, seven and a half is still pretty steep to get there. So, I think getting there, seven and a half, not too shabby.
>> Let's do it. All right. I got a demon in my pocket for y'all here in a minute.
So, for this one, >> I'll go seven and a half. [laughter] >> Is that a demon in your pocket or you excited to see me? [laughter] >> Oh, Lord. Where you going next, man?
Where you taking us?
>> We're gonna go to Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge. You know, New York Yankees. I'm going to go over hitter fantasy score for Aaron Judge today. Going to make it a goblin. Let's do uh three and a half.
I believe you can put it to Treya Savage so far against Aaron Judge has won the battle, but I think Aaron Judge is going to win the war.
Savage, somebody I think will regress quite a bit in 2026. Now, so far he's pitched well, but he's also faced a very, very weak strength of schedule.
You look at your Savage's game logs. He took on the Red Sox first game.
Struggling offense, the Twins, inconsistent 50-50 Twins as Jay likes to call them. Uh, and they actually got to him for a little bit. They had five hits and three walks in four innings. Then he faced the Angels, one of the worst offenses in baseball. Strikeout happy team. And then the Detroit Tigers last time out. Another team that's been struggling going through recently. So now you're at Yankee Stadium. Now you're against the Yankees who have had a big series offensively already.
you are playing a team that's playing with revenge. I mean, the Yankees are looking to, you know, beat up on the Blue Jays after last year's postseason run and your Savage was a big part of that in that series. He made the Yankees look silly in that series. So, a guy like Aaron Judge, you know, with with your Savage, you look at his game, especially last time out against the Tigers, a lot of wild pitches, a lot of non-competitive misses. I think the walks are going to pile up for him in this game. I don't think he's going to go more than four innings in this game, honestly. And I think Judge could get worked around here. You know, I think he either goes yard or he gets a couple of walks. So, if we get two walks from Aaron Judge in this game, we go over the three and a half fantasy score. I think that's all we need. Give me Aaron Judge over 3.5 hitter fantasy score.
>> All right. All right. I like it. Let's go, Captain.
Let's go, Captain. I am kind of pissed at the Yankees. I had them yesterday on the run line, man. Losing that hurt.
They had it. They had it.
Uh they did win the game but didn't cover my run line long but let's go captain. What did what did that say?
Went over in four of the last five over three and a half. So looking for a good outing from my guy today. Not really my guy but shout out there judge.
>> Yep. He had a rough night last night. I think he bounces back.
>> All right for my last and final one. I told you I had a demon in my pocket.
We're going to the NBA.
Hey man, look what a game from Victor Winyama in game one. You know that's Hey, in terms of playoff performances, that's that's up there. 47 points, the deep logo, three for the tie. What do you have? 20 boards. You know what a performance that was a MVP style performance. go walk in your trap, take over your trap, and thoroughly outplayed the MVP.
Back up against the wall, do or die, looking to avoid falling down 02, heading to San Antonio. MVP, where you at, man? Um, had a pretty rough game one. You know, we had him on the slip that day for 24 and a half goblin and or 25 and a half goblin and he only scored 24 points that day. Today, he can't afford another bad game. Um, backto back MVP. You're in rare airspace. They have his line at 28 1/2.
I ain't taking 28 and a2. Told you I got a demon in my pocket. Shay, where you at, man? I need you.
I'm taking Shay Gillas Alexander up and over 29 and a half points. I'm expecting a 30 ball from the MVP tonight with his team back up against the wall. Look, I know he's been struggling. I'm not running from it. He's, you know, gone under in four of his last five. Only 18, 22, 23. Did have a huge game uh four against the Lakers, but right back under in game one.
It has to be him. It has to be. So, I'm expecting a monster game on their home floor tonight, Ron. I'm going Demon.
MVP Shay Gillis Alexander for 30. And there we go. That's our slip. How you feeling?
>> I'm feeling pretty good. I think as far as demons go, that's a good one. I mean, you got to expect the bounce back from one of the league's top players. And it's basically if you like OKC to even if you don't like him to cover the spread tonight, if you like him to bounce back, win this game, and even up the series, you got to think that they're going to get a lot more from Shay. And I think that's what we see tonight.
>> Yes. Yes. Yes. The the game one was really the refs kind of let them play in the second half, which is not really Shay's game. I'm interested to see if they give him the whistle tonight. Um, you know, that's that's that's really the multi-million dollar question. Does he get the whistle? You know, that's been really what a lot of people think is his unfair advantage in his game is the way he's able to kind of manipulate the refs and get to the line. Refs let him play in game one. I'm interested to see what the game script will be here in game two. But regardless, I think we do see him get to the line. I think we see him play a little more aggressive. I'm just expecting an overall bounceback game for him. So, Demon Shay 29 and a half. We got Aaron Judge three and a half hitter score. We got some goats on the lineup, man. Another one, Chris Cell. These are three guys that if they all retired today would be in their respective Hall of Fames. Um, Chris Cell up and over seven and a halfks.
Marlins let Martine give him 10 yesterday. I think Chrisell can come give me eight. And then the wild card.
It's a goblin though. Been playing pretty well. Hammering course. And it's Jack Lighter. So fading him is always pretty good idea. It's my team, man. I know. [laughter] Uh, we got Troy Johnston up and over.
One hit run or RBI. 20 bucks pays 120.
100 bucks pays 600.
All right.
>> Wow. We got three Hall of Fame, three future Hall of Famers and Shay Gilis Alexander. [laughter] >> Hey man, shout out Troy Johnston, man.
Shout out Troy Johnston. [laughter] Ron, what you got going on today over at Pick Dogs Premium?
>> I've got a full card today. I've got eight total premium selections. Two in the NBA. So, the side and the total in tonight's game. A WNBA against the spread selection and five baseball plays. Four money lines, one run line.
Check it out individually or a long-term plan. It's always going to be your best bet. Get you all those plays across all the sports coming off. you know, had a rough day yesterday, but that Knicks comeback, I got to say, it inspired me a little bit, you know, to to see that performance, to get that win. I'm feeling pretty good about my chances today and going forward. Let's bounce back.
>> There you go. Hop on with Ron Nadon over at Pig Dogs Premium for me today. I got a smaller card as of right this second.
I only have one game bet. Um, that could change as the morning progresses. You know, still got some time here. Got a couple more shows to do. Um, you know, may may want to fade somebody. You never know how it plays out. [laughter] But as of right this second, I have just one play. It's 10star and it's in the NBA. So you guys can scoop that up over at Pic Dogs Premium.
Ron, moneymaking Wednesday, man. Let's cash this slip today. Any final words before we get out of here? Let's do it.
Good luck. And uh maybe we'll see overtime again in game two of the Western Conference Finals.
>> Yes. Yes. Yes. Game one was game of the season, I would say. you know, and I would probably put it I'm I'm still trying not to overreact, but I it's probably a top five game I' I've ever watched. So, >> Oh, yeah.
>> Um I'm I'm excited for tonight. You know, coming off of that, we should see uh you know, a pretty good series for the remainder. So, should be a lot of fun. But other than that, man, appreciate y'all more than y'all know.
Smash that like button, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Of course, check out Ron's rundown. Check out my the NBA jam session and the WNBA layup session. Um, see you tomorrow, man. Let's make it a winning day. We out of here.
Peace.
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