The LABOR Market Is COLLAPSING…Entry-Level Jobs ARE GONE...

追加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]She applied to over a 100 jobs, zero call backs, zero rejection emails, just plain silence. And the federal government looked at that and they said that the labor market is healthy. By the end of this video, guys, you will understand exactly why the 4.3% unemployment rate is the most misleading economic headline in America right now.

[00:00:22]what's actually happening beneath the surface of the labor market and what it means for the consumer spending that drives 70% of this economy. If you're a parent, an employer, or an investor, you need to see what's underneath these numbers before you make another decision based on the headline alone. Guys, you know, I've been obsessed with consumption for my entire career. Not as an academic exercise, but because consumers drive roughly 70% of GDP. When the consumer breaks, the economy breaks.

[00:00:51]Period. full stop. And for as long as I've been watching this market, the best proxy for consumer health is not inflation, not interest rates. It is employment. Guys, confident consumers consume. Employed consumers are confident. I've been saying that for decades, and I believe it more now than ever. So, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April employment situation last Friday, the headline told you that the US economy added 15,000 non-farm payroll jobs. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%.

[00:01:26]Average hour earnings ticked up by 3.6% year-over-year. The Fed Central narrative, the one that Jerome Pal spent three years building, says that it is a healthy labor market. And if you stop there, if you accept the headline and move on, you have no reason to worry.

[00:01:42]Nothing to see here. Markets are fine.

[00:01:45]Just move on. Go about your day. But there's a reason I don't stop at the headline. And if you've been following this channel for any length of time, you know exactly what I'm about to say. The headline is where the story starts, my friends, not where it ends. First, if you like this type of content, please click like and subscribe. It's important to be in the know. And this, my friends, is how I hope that you would do it. Now, let me tell you what is actually inside that 115,000 number. The job gains in April came from three sectors. Healthcare, which added 37 jobs. Transportation and warehousing, which added 30,000, and retail trade, which added 22,000. Every last one of those is honorable work. I want to be clear about that. These are real jobs held by real people and they matter a heck of a lot. But here is what those three sectors are not. They're not where a college graduate with a degree in finance or marketing or economics or information systems expects to land. And they're not what four years and $60,000 in tuition debt was supposed to buy.

[00:02:53]Because the sectors that historically served as the on-ramp for white collar graduates, finance, information service, and professional services have been hemorrhaging jobs at an average of 9,000 per month since 2023. That's now before the pandemic, those same industries were adding guys 44,000 jobs per month. So now it's losing, but before it was adding quite a bit. Think about what that really means. That's not a slowdown. That is a structural reversal of more than 50,000 jobs per month in the sectors that white collar graduates depend on. And it doesn't show up in the headline unemployment rate because the headline unemployment rate does not care where the jobs are, only that they exist. Now, let me show you the shadow data that almost no one in mainstream financial media is watching. You know, I love the shadow data. Entrylevel job listings on Indeed. That's that website that you can post jobs on. They fell by 7% in 2025 compared to a year prior.

[00:03:58]LinkedIn data shows entry level hiring dropped another 6% between December of last year and February of this one.

[00:04:06]Those aren't rounding errors. That is a structural contraction in the pipeline that new workers depend on to enter the economy. And this is happening while Washington is congratulating itself on a 4.3% headline rate.

[00:04:21]Here's the data point that I keep coming back to, and it's one of the most remarkable things I've seen in nearly 40 years of watching this market. For the first time since the federal government began tracking these figures, college graduates have lost their employment advantage over workers without degrees.

[00:04:38]Workers with a skilled trades associate degree, like plumbers, electricians, and pipe fitters, are now posting better employment outcomes than 4year college graduates. Not roughly equivalent, better. The return on four-year degrees has been degrading for a decade, literally. But this is the first time the math has actually inverted. That is a general that is a generational shift, guys, in the labor market's underlying structure, and it's buried on page 14 of reports that lead with the headline number that most people love to quote.

[00:05:12]And now layer in the accelerant.

[00:05:14]Artificial intelligence is not the root cause of this structural contraction.

[00:05:19]The entry-level decline was already underway before every corporate earnings call started featuring the phrase AIdriven efficiency. But AI has certainly compressed the timeline dramatically and it's doing so first at the bottom of the white collar pyramid which is precisely where new graduates are trying to enter. Anthropic, that's a AI company. The CEO over there has said publicly that within 5 years, half of entry-level white collar jobs may completely disappear. Companies aren't waiting 5 years. Block cut 40% of its headcount this year, explicitly citing AI efficiency, and told other firms to follow suit. Meta followed with roughly 8,000 job cuts in the middle of a heavy AI capital spend projected at excuse me 135 billion for 2026. Oracle Microsoft the pattern is identical in every case.

[00:06:13]Replace labor at the bottom redirect the savings to infrastructure at the top.

[00:06:18]New hiring budgets don't survive the reallocation. So what does this actually mean for the consumer economy that I've been obsessing over? Well, here's the compound stress scenario that doesn't make it into the headline. A young worker who can't find a full-time white collar job is simultaneously failing to build savings, failing to pay down their student debt, and watching whatever cash cushion they have erode in real terms every month that inflation runs above their income growth. And inflation is running for sure. April's CPI came in just this morning at 3.8% 8% and that is a seriously hot number. We put out a video earlier this morning on that. So, you should check it out and see exactly what's beneath that number and you'll get a better sense how it impacts this exact cohort that we're talking about.

[00:07:10]Guys, a consumer, a confident consumer consumes. An un undermployed consumer stuck in part-time work that they didn't choose does absolutely not. And that 4.9 million number, the Americans working part-time in April because they couldn't find full-time work, is up nearly half a million from one month ago in a single month. That is not a statistical blip.

[00:07:34]That is employers cutting hours instead of cutting heads. And it is one of the most reliable leading indicators we have for what headline unemployment will look like in the next quarterly report. Don't pass over that fact quickly, please. I mentioned it several times in several videos that underemployment rate is absolutely critical and it is growing fast. So what do you actually do with all this stuff that I just told you?

[00:08:01]Well, you stop using the headline unemployment rate as your primary labor market indicator and you start watching the subsurface data if you aren't already. Entry-level job postings on Indeed and LinkedIn is a really interesting number to look at. sector specific hiring trends in finance, information, and professional services.

[00:08:20]Look for those specifically. Real wage growth for workers under 30 and the part-time for economic reasons figure that BLS publishes every single month and almost no one reads. It was that hard for me to even read it. So, you better pay attention to it. If you're a young person navigating this market, the skilled trades are no longer unfortunately a fallback. They are right now statistically better employment bets than a white collar job search in finance or information services. If you're an employer, the talent pipeline you are not building today is the management problem you will have in 5 years. And if you're a policy maker, a headline unemployment rate that tells you everything is fine while a generation enters the workforce into structural contraction is not a policy tool, guys. It is a public relations document. The viral graduate was not complaining, the one that I talked about up top. She was just reporting. And the data says she got it exactly right. So, your truth bomb for today is this. The 4.3% unemployment rate is not lying to you. It's just not asking the right question. And in a labor market that is structurally reshaping itself from the bottom up, the question you ask is absolutely everything. Join me every day for Wall Street Truth Bombs, where I drop them right here before the market figures them out. Every day, the headlines move the markets. But the real story is in the shadow data. That's why every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. Wall Street time, we go live with the Radar Report.

[00:09:52]We break down what's actually driving the markets. Inflation, Fed policy, oil, housing, credit risks, liquidity, and the biggest macro stories Wall Street is watching right now as we speak. No spin, no narratives, no politics, just policy.

[00:10:10]Just real analysis designed to help you understand the risks, the opportunities, and what could happen next. I'm Mark Malik, founder of Truth Bombs, and this is where we connect the dots before the rest of the market even catches on. Join us live every Thursday, 4:30 p.m.