Why Most People Are Wrong About Bitcoin In 2026 (4-Year Cycle Is Different?)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Today I'm going to answer one very very popular question that we have in crypto right now and that's is this time different? Now I want to make clear of course like it depends what you compare it with right is this cycle right now where we are different compared to four years ago because that's what most people I think refer to because they have in uh mind that there is a 4-ear cycle and we can look back at what happened four years ago and then compare. So that's what I want to do in this video. How much does it actually line up with 4 years ago? Is it actually pretty similar or is it maybe a lot different? Well, some things are different. Some things are the same.

[00:00:42]It's not that every single thing always repeats. So let's get through that. This is going to be really interesting because whether you do believe in the 4year cycle, whether you don't believe in the four-ear cycle, I think the most important thing is to be open-minded about it because I have a lot. So let me know down in the comments by the way right away like what do you think and most important why do you think that um on the last video I saw some people saying mostly saying by the way that the 4year cycle is still intact right and uh this person had a lot of uh reasoning for it and that's pretty cool because usually the people that say that the four-ear cycle is still intact it's the same as like no I I don't know it's usually there's not a lot of reasoning um somebody said No, the the the bare market lasts longer than half a year.

[00:01:29]Don't mislead people, right? Sorry for giving insights. Um but uh I asked like what about 2011? And he said those times are long gone. Like okay, it was too long ago. So that doesn't count, right?

[00:01:41]Like okay, I don't know how much we can rely on such a indicator. So, let's go over the things um that actually, you know, are about the fouryear cycle because this is all that people hold on to. And I think that this is so important to know because this might really determine how your finances look in the notsodistant future. And if you are not open-minded about something else, then it could end bad. I believed in it for a long time and in a certain point I stepped away from it. So far so good though. But hey, nobody still has the confirmation, right? So let's go over that now. First of course like what is the four-ear cycle? I think that that's really important to know. The four-year cycle is basically uh where people say like well there is a a a bottom every four years, right? Cycle to cycle officially you measure it from bottom to bottom. Um but I'm like yeah okay. Um, is that really that accurate as we might uh think it is? Right? Initially, crypto is of course a 4-year having cycle, right? And I think that that's where the misconception kind of started like it's a four-year having cycle because the having is taking place pretty much every four years. And that's true. Like that could be four years, that could be three and a half years, but overall that doesn't mean that we get a top every four years. And although we had a couple tops every four years, it doesn't mean that that will continue forever, right?

[00:03:18]Um, but we'll get into that right now.

[00:03:21]And this is not uh for me to prove my point or anything like believe what you want to believe in, but I want to make sure that you have all the information to come to your own conclusion, right?

[00:03:33]Because for most people it's like this like 4 year cycle doesn't matter like doesn't matter how inaccurate it is and all the other things that are maybe more accurate you know four year cycle no matter what and that's stubbornness uh not wisdom and look I am not a fan of over complicating but I'm also not a fan of under complicating where you say like well top top so top top top like that's a little too simplistic in my opinion because we are also ignoring the fact that in 2011 yeah this was not four years right this was 2 and 1/2 years or one and a half years sorry and yeah then then we get like excuses like yeah but that doesn't count like that was like when it was just new like yeah but like did it start whenever it suits you or are we going to look at what we have so let's take a look at what we have and then also the conclusion like, "Okay, so what is it then? And how should you play it?"

[00:04:35]Because if this is not going to play out this four-year cycle, then pretty much everybody in crypto is going to get wrecked. Meaning, the ones that don't get wrecked win [ __ ] big and you could be that big winner. And that's how usually people make money in crypto.

[00:04:51]They make a lot of money in crypto by, you know, winning from a lot of different people. So, let's get into it.

[00:04:59]We're going to go over a couple of really interesting charts to take a look at uh for this video that basically nobody is really showing you. Um sounds super clickbait like this is what nobody shows you but this is what nobody shows you. Okay. Anyway, first one is the um Bitcoin gold silver index and that's under the category it's different and the Bitcoin against gold silver is important because if you're talking about bare markets, if you're talking about bull markets, we're all thinking in dollar terms obviously, but there are more uh things to measure something against, right? I mean when gold is going up, hey, everybody is into gold, right? So why are we not looking at it all the time? And if you look at Bitcoin versus the gold silver index, this is how it's looking right now. Now this should be both actually, right? Because it is the same and it is different. What is the same about Bitcoin against gold silver is that it went into a one-year long bare market, right? It stopped it started the bare market in December 2024 and it bottomed in February 2026. So that was pretty much a year, right?

[00:06:13]Also, if you look right here, it started in November 2021, bottomed in January 2023, and here it started in December 2017, and it bottomed in January, February 2019. So that's not even like the same. That's quite exact, right? So um you could say like, well, the bare market for Bitcoin against gold, it played out once again, right? And I know that a lot of people lately came uh to the realization like I should buy gold.

[00:06:43]Yeah, of course people come to that realization here and here and here as well just like right now but this is normal. this happens. This is a bare market against gold. That often happens, right? So that's the same. However, what is actually different is that look at the date again. Bare market started in November 2021 just like the regular bare market right here. The bare market started in December 2017 just like against the dollar as well. However, here it started in December 2024.

[00:07:19]Right? You'll notice something. 2024 not 2025.

[00:07:25]So this actually started a year earlier instead of the typical posth having year. So therefore that is completely different actually and again it's not a contest it's not a race about who's right and who's wrong but it is really important to understand like okay if you are saying that the fouryear cycle is intact are you then actually saying that this time is completely different because most people they say no it's intact it's it's it's not different but that would probably mean that it is different right so the next one is Bitcoin versus gold silver still lasted about one year obviously right so that's what we just saw the bare market still was one year but that's also kind of more confirmation for this one right here right same thing one year bare market but the fact that it happened a year earlier right so it's not necessarily an invalidation that Bitcoin versus gold silver is not even relevant to all of this then And one by the way that I didn't add but that I should add under the same is when Bitcoin topped so far right that's the biggest evidence that the fouryear cycle uh believers uh add to the table like well Bitcoin topped in October and nothing else matters right well nothing else matters I don't know about that but yes 4a same okay next no alt season right and again we can be very picky about it I get it right you could say like well four year cycle only applies to Bitcoin if that's like we can cherrypick very easily like okay no but that doesn't count because and that doesn't count because hey I don't know but if you look at the alt season chart we get an alt season right here at the end of the bull market and when the bare market starts altcoins drop against Bitcoin here right before the bull market or at the last stage of the bull market we get a fat alt season right and when the bare market starts altcoins drop against Bitcoin, right? If you look at the end of 2025 or wherever, this was not an alt season, right? This was a fat ass dead cat bounce. Anyone who calls this an alt season needs an extra pair of glasses, which they can't afford because they wanted an alt season. They didn't had it, so they don't have the money to buy glasses, you know? But this is completely different.

[00:09:51]Like this is completely different obviously, right? So you could say like, well, no, but that doesn't count and that doesn't count. Fact is that if people say like hey there's four year cycle and this time should be the same then this should be aligned with your expectations as well right which obviously did not play out so no that's different next one is euphoria and uh well apathy basically right whenever bitcoin tops it tops on fat euphoria Yeah, right. You can see it on the charts like Bitcoin tops and it's like wo and and and everybody is euphoric and emotional and down. Right. Next one as well. Fed euphoria. Fed euphoria here as well. Fed euphoria. And I think that that kind of aligns with all season, right? People get euphoric by uh altcoins doing 50xes, not by bitcoin doing a 5x necessarily. I mean the Bitcoin price so far was something to be pretty euphoric about but still there was no euphoria at all.

[00:11:03]Why is that right? Is it because like and we can come up with all kind of reasons like well there are ETFs right now and this and that. Okay so it's different right? We can also say like well there was no euphoria top because it wasn't a top like a usual top. Matter of fact, it is pretty interesting. I think that a lot of people, they have the emotional stability of someone who's pretty drunk in crypto overall. And I think it's funny because I've been there. I got wrecked that way. And now I kind of, you know, in a mocking way though, but tried to make the content about how that's the most important thing actually in crypto.

[00:11:42]But anyway, for those um I created this page instead of the fear and greed index. I was like maybe for them it better applies to have a beer and weed index. uh same number uh just different layout. It's pretty cool. But if you look at the euphoria actually you can see the fair and greed index if you put a smoothing over it right u because if you have it raw there are all kind of spikes and you cannot really make something out of it. But if you put a smoothing over it you can see how the overall uh fear and greed uh was. And yeah, as you see right here, look at the b at the bottom right there, the euphoria is like nowhere to be found.

[00:12:25]Really nowhere. The fear and greed was sitting at 11 give or take. Right here at the 2020 co crash, it was sitting at kind of the same at 12. Here at the bottom in the bare market before that, it was sitting at 15. Right? These are, if you smooth it out, are bare market uh sentiment levels, right? What did we get? We got to 10 this time, right? 10.

[00:12:56]Yeah. I don't know. But every time we went to 10, we didn't even went there in the past, but every time we even got close to it, that was not when the bare market just started, right? That was pretty much the pico bottom or the pico bottom, the bottom bottom, right? So, this is showing like sentiment is so important as well. So, no euphoric top uh that doesn't align with the 4year cycle at all. So, that's different, right? And again, don't get me wrong.

[00:13:33]I'm not saying that this time is different. I'm actually saying that this time is the same. Uh but again, it depends what you compare it with.

[00:13:42]However, if we're going to compare it with previous bare markets, then well, you will see the list, but it's pretty different actually. Next one is the S&P, which is still in a bull market. Now, this is something that that's the the weakest of them all. Uh admittedly though, why is that? If you look at the S&P, right, you can see that the S&P is like it's making new highs.

[00:14:12]Now, there's always something bearish to be said, of course. Oh, S&P is making new highs and Bitcoin is not making new highs. Ah, screw Bitcoin. Yeah, you can say that obviously. Uh but you can also look at uh Bitcoin divided or let's say the S&P uh divided by Bitcoin, right?

[00:14:30]And if you take a look at that chart, it is somewhat interesting. This is how the S&P looks against Bitcoin. It's not like, you know, like whoa, it wasn't even on. Okay, cool. So, yeah, here we go. Someone mentioned in the comments like, oh, you could have better invested in the S&P over the last 5 years. Yeah, I don't know. Over the last like three quarters. Yeah, maybe. But that's of course if you in hindsight time DP go bottom or top, then anything else is always better, right? Uh but overall S&P against Bitcoin getting completely uh wrecked of course but if you look at the S&P itself it's at the moment in a fat bull market. Now in the last bare market for Bitcoin the S&P went into a bare market with it right and that makes sense because here we had uh quantitative tightening like really tight. There was tight tiding tiding a lot tiding like there was like money got drained out of the system so hard which explains why the S&P went into a bare market. Now is it coincidence that Bitcoin just happened to go in a bare market at the exact same time just because there is a 4year cycle? I don't know. It sounds like super speculative speculative to me. However, why is it the uh weakest of them all? Well, to be honest, um, because Bitcoin and the S&P are not always aligned. If you look at the end of 2017 right here, right, the S&P had a drop P. U, but it was not really a bare market or anything, right?

[00:16:08]It was like uh it was just a huge ass bull market with some drops in between, right? So, sometimes it correlates, sometimes it doesn't correlate. um showing to me though that there is not a macro bare market going on right now, right? Although the macro economy like of course there's something to be said about uh how strong it actually is at the moment, but if we have to base that off of the S&P, there's not a macro bare market going on at the moment. Last ban market, they were super correlated though, right? So meaning to me that whatever Bitcoin is doing right now is cryptospecific, right? It's cryptospecific why it went down.

[00:16:52]Yeah. Could be the self-fulfilling prophecy of the people who think that this is going to be a normal bare market, right? It kind of adds up. Um but hey, at the end of the day, all I do like you is speculating. I'm just like trying to use as much data as possible, right? So still speculative and you can call me an idiot for oh you and your charts like that's never really disappointed anyone though if you use it correctly. So hey forgive me if you don't agree that's fine. Um let's try to give you the insights and you know do it whatever you want of course. Next one is altcoins.

[00:17:32]They topped in 2024, right? Which is kind of funny because like the first one that we spoke about is Bitcoin on its gold silver uh sector, right? Which bare market started a year earlier, right? If you look at the altcoin market right now others for example you can see that um we have the top and at the end of 2017 beginning 2018 right there always a month delayed with bitcoin give or take right we at the top here November 2021 so if you expect a 4-year cycle then everybody would have said like well altcoins at the end of 2025 will top right what did they do at the end of 2025 they [ __ ] crashed. They went down really hard, right? The top was December 2024.

[00:18:29]So that's something else. It happens to line up with the fact that hey it topped a year earlier actually, right?

[00:18:39]Does it mean that it was a left translated cycle?

[00:18:43]It's too too soon to say in my opinion.

[00:18:45]I don't think so.

[00:18:47]um because we can say the same about 2019 and at the end of the day I look at that and I I just see it as a midcycle top right this was a bull market and whatever happened in between you know went down really hard but uh still same bull market next we have bottom indicators that flashed in February right so this is an important one and this is where a lot of uh it sounds I I don't like this word because it sounds really bad but it is what it is. a lot of hypocrites come into play where we see a lot of these videos right from uh Benjamin Cow for example saying fouryear cycle is not dead and in the meantime he's selling you a crypto analysis platform with bottom indicators that all flashed that he's basically saying like guys why are you paying for that like that doesn't matter like this is where I don't start to get it anymore how certain people uh reason.

[00:19:49]Um, but apart from the content creators though, I also don't sometimes get it from people that believe in a uh 4-year cycle because they reasoning uh again is that they look at Bitcoin and they're like, "Well, we had a top, a top, and a top. These are three out of the four.

[00:20:12]That's my [ __ ] thesis no matter what, right?" And I'm like, it's a trend.

[00:20:18]Yeah. But is it like is it like a given?

[00:20:21]Is it like a guarantee? I don't know about that. But okay, cool. If we are so so so uh locked in to the idea that if something happens three times and that that must be accurate, then what about the things that happened four times or other things that happened three times, right? Why is this one intact and the other ones that are either just as accurate or even more accurate not?

[00:20:48]And that's a question that I think not a uh 4year cycle believer is um able to answer.

[00:20:58]And that's because of the simplicity like of the 4year cycle, right? Oh, no.

[00:21:03]It's just it's just like that's how it moves and and and screw everything else.

[00:21:08]like these indicators they are wrong now because now it's different. Oh [ __ ] it's not different. Like what are you trying to say? Right. Um but yeah, if you look at certain uh indicators, you know, we will go over it, but just one indicator right here for example is the bi-weekly RSI or the monthly RSI in this case also fine, right? But if you look at that, look, we had this bottom right here of the RSI um at 43 on the monthly, right? That's low in February, right?

[00:21:43]Well, four years ago in February 2022 was in there, right? Was sitting at 56.

[00:21:48]That was halfway. Here it was sitting at 72, right? The reckoning just started basically. Here it was sitting at 59.

[00:21:59]Right? But now we have it at 43.

[00:22:04]How were the actual bottoms looking then? Well, this bottom right here sitting at 40. This bottom right here sitting at 43. This bottom right here 44. And even the 2011 bottom 49.

[00:22:23]That's one of the indicators, right? One of the indicators. And of course there are also indicators that uh a couple actually not not even that much but there are also indicators that say like oh there's more downside uh and that's fine but that's where it starts to get confusing right because either the bottom is not in because this time is the same but then this time is still different because the indicators are wrong. So there is no other conclusion in my mind that this time is always different. Right? So you cannot stick to either this or that because it's literally not possible.

[00:23:10]So conclusion be open-minded about every possibility, right?

[00:23:18]Um so yeah, bottom indicators flashing in February. Uh yeah, that's quite of a big one. Now the next one that in my opinion has all the answers actually is the ISM.

[00:23:35]And I get that a lot of people feel like ISM.

[00:23:39]Yet of course if you do not what understand what the ISM is, then it makes no sense and then it's yet another indicator waiting to be invalidated.

[00:23:49]Right? However, this kind of falls into the same basket as like, hey, something has always been accurate, like the tops, you know, three out of the four. So, why not look at other indicators that have been more accurate and add logic to it, right? What's the logic behind the four-year cycle? Again, it's the four-year having cycle, but a having doesn't equal top or timing or price, right? Like back in the day, it had a bigger impact than now, of course, but even that impact is like diminishing like a lot, but that's still timing the the having, right? So, there there is no real logic to the whole theory in the first place. The ISM, for those who knew, hi, subscribe if you're new.

[00:24:43]Welcome. Nice to have you here. But the ISM, manufacturing new orders, is basically just showing how much um are uh businesses fabricate fabricating like oh pronounce a trouble pronouncing that word. Um and shipping and ordering as in just goods, right, that people can buy, right? and and and what determines that?

[00:25:09]Well, actually demand, right? So, if people don't have the money for a new toaster, yeah, then the the the businesses are not going to produce those because they can't ship it anyway, right? So, if this is going up, it means simply people buy more [ __ ] right? And if people have more money to buy, what do they buy, right? If you were Dian and you have a lot of money, you're telling me that you're not going to buy crypto, right? This makes all the sense in the world to me actually, right? So, if you look at ISM, this goes back 85 years on this chart, right? And you can see how it, you know, it just ranges, right? This is a perfect oscillator, right? And then you have the bottom pretty much sitting here at 40 44 45 and the spikes below that fat recession. Uh just terrible, not longlasting luckily, but overall that's not really part of the range. And then we have the top and this is kind of at 65 67 right whatever somewhat of the top. Right now this is like again um so it makes most sense of all right cool. Then look at the accuracy. So if you overlay Bitcoin, then to me it's pretty clear and I'm not going too deep in this chart because if you look close at the correlation, it correlates with every like not every bottom and every top, but also every midcycle dump, pump, everything, right?

[00:26:44]Look at a small midcycle dump on the ISM like June 2016, right? Random June 2016.

[00:26:53]Cool. Go to Bitcoin and let's take a look at June 2016. What happened there?

[00:26:58]June 2016. Oh, that's funny. Bitcoin went from 780 bucks to 470.

[00:27:04]That's a huge crash. What a coincidence.

[00:27:07]The first random date that I click, right? The correlation is you can ignore it, but like that's so unwise. So, if you look at the ISM against Bitcoin, what doesn't it stand out, right? be honest. Doesn't it like stand out that 2013 top perfectly aligns in a blowoff top? 2017 top perfectly aligns in a blowoff top. 2021 top, hey, it's more of a distribution or yeah, a distribution area for both Bitcoin as the ISM, right?

[00:27:45]Oh, that's really coincident right now.

[00:27:47]H bad four cycle. Okay, cool. Explain 2011. Yeah, I can't. It's too new. Fine.

[00:27:53]You know what can explain it?

[00:27:57]ISM.

[00:28:00]That's it.

[00:28:02]That's it. And this gives all the answers like, yeah, we didn't had like altcoins. They topped too early. We didn't have an alt season. Like, uh, we didn't had a euphoric top. All of that.

[00:28:13]All of the list so far. That's why it's different could be explained right here because we are not at the top, right?

[00:28:21]You cannot say like well this is more accurate way more accurate than the 4year cycle theory. It adds all the logic as well. And now for the first time that things are actually falling apart in the four cycle theory. This chart is not topping.

[00:28:39]This makes all the sense in the world.

[00:28:41]Right now also if you look at um it there's a somewhat more uh delayed correlation but also with the altcoin market right. Um, but if you look at the total 3BC, um, so altcoins on the Bitcoin pair alt season, right? We didn't had that. Yeah, we didn't have that. And I can show you something that makes it all make sense in my opinion.

[00:29:03]Look at this.

[00:29:05]When was the only moment in the altcoin market where it was slightly euphoric this cycle so far? It's the end of 2024, right? Was this right here? Yeah. Oh, that happens to align perfectly with the ice. ISM pumped in August and with the normal delay that crypto has with ISM, altcoins pumped after that. And you can say like, whoa, this is nothing. Yeah, it's nothing. But on the dollar pair, if you remember, right, this chart didn't go up that far, but on the dollar pair, because Bitcoin was like 100K or whatever it was back then, altcoins did fantastic, right? And now we didn't have an alt season. Why? Well, it happens to be that whenever you look at when all season really starts right here, this this is where I have my cursor right now. Look where the ISM is sitting. The blue line right it was sitting really high right here. Where's the ISM sitting? Really high for the first time.

[00:29:56]We didn't have an all season. Oh, it happens to be that also the ISM was not in in in in in expansion, right? Look at pretty much any correlation you are trying to find and you will find it on the ISM. This is like you cannot tell me that you're so um conspirative that you're telling me that everything that you see on this chart is coincidence and that for some reason some astr astrological kind of theory makes all the sense compared to this that I cannot believe that like of course I get it that that for the newer people in crypto like yeah they that that that maybe goes a little bit too far, right? And four year cycle is easy and memeable, but if you then look at people as Benjamin Cowan, I'm like, how can you not know this and still sell a platform with indicators that you choose to ignore because it all doesn't matter?

[00:30:55]Like, this is like really I don't know. It's it's weird. which is also funny by the way because um on the alpha factory I also created a uh an indicator that shows YouTube views again against Bitcoin. Um but I chose to only go with YouTubers that are still creating content because I noticed that Benjamin has it as well, but he lists a lot of YouTubers that actually don't make content about crypto anymore. And he's like, "You see the chart going down?" Yeah, because they don't release content anymore. Like that's not really up to date. So if you look at this chart um you can see how Bitcoin uh orange right correlates with YouTube views which is the blue histogram. What's interesting in my opinion by the way about him what I just wanted to mention if you overlay Benjamin with uh you can overlay with like DeFi AI tokens with the fear and greed the Bitcoin dominance altcoins alt season like [ __ ] awesome chart actually. But if you look and you overlay it with Bitcoin, yeah, it is interesting to see how his views are going up when the market is going down.

[00:32:04]View skyrocket, market going down. View skyrocket, market going down. Of course, he is always bearish because that's what makes him like actual money, right?

[00:32:18]Like, yeah, it's what it is. Um, I thought it was pretty interesting to mention actually, but um, yeah, what you can do right here, you can, uh, look at a random YouTuber. You can overlay multiple YouTubers uh, at the same time, by the way. But what you can actually do is um, let's take altcoin daily for example, right? You can also say like, okay, find me the chart that correlates most with altcoin daily. So if you click find strongest, then it will actually show you which chart is most correlated.

[00:32:49]So their content is most correlated to low caps against high caps for example.

[00:32:54]So this is really cool. You can really find the sweet spots and like well if this this YouTuber starts to go great again I have to pay attention to that chart, right? Um so therefore Alactory there is a link down below. This is amazing if you uh ask me but next. All right. So the ISM it's a long video but again I cannot try to do this in 15 minutes. I will still have people under this video that don't even watch it and call me an idiot. like I cannot prevent that. Like you do you. Um but like if you buy this video, don't even take all of this in consideration then I think it's just ignorant and I really try to help with this uh to give the insights.

[00:33:35]It doesn't mean that I will guarantee guarantee to have it right. Um but I at least know that I take the best bet uh I can possibly take. Um the pattern overlay. So, if you if you look at the cycle overlay, actually, that's maybe even more interesting, right? So, you can look at um and let me actually get it right here. I just updated it a uh a little bit, but if you look at the bare cycle overlay, what's really interesting, this is Bitcoin from the previous stop until now. Right? So, what you can do is you can look at the 2021 cycle and you can make it visual, right?

[00:34:12]Is this behaving like the previous bare market? Yeah. At the beginning it was but it's really decoupled and decorrelated from it right like a lot.

[00:34:22]At this time in the previous cycle we were already down 73%. This is not diminishing returns anymore. This is a complete decorrelation. Right? If you look at 2017, 2013, 2021 and you can see 2021 we are 49% correlated to that. 2017, 19, 2013 is 35. 2011, it's five, right? The average bare market correlation that we have right now is 27%.

[00:34:56]This is not me creating this being biased like we'll put that line there so that like this is literally you can like see it for yourself. This is just how the markets moved, right? It is simply like not correlated to any bare market we had so far at all. Like not even close to it. Right. What is interesting though is that if you look what it's most correlated to, it's a 2019 midcycle with 69%. Almost three times as much as the bare markets, right? So if you overlay that one, you can see how much this correlation is actually so much more similar to any bare market, right?

[00:35:43]And you can still use this like if you feel like now it's going to be 2021 anyway, you can project it like okay then what's the price going to be at the bottom if it follows 2021 completely.

[00:35:53]But I would not pin to this number because that's if it ends up being fully correlated of course and by now it's not even close to it. So I would not like assume that this is going to happen though, right? But again, if you overlay it with different uh bare markets, yeah, it's pretty obvious like no, not really.

[00:36:13]Uh or really not actually. And then you put 2019 over it and ta, right? So yeah, um interesting to say the least. ETF inflows changed supply pressure. Spot ETF demands a sort supply instead of a force liquidation loop. That's quite different. That's more of a narrative though. Um but I think it is pretty interesting to you know look at it like that like in the last bare market we have quantitative tightening a lot right and this time we have money flowing into ETFs okay so I I feel like yeah you know something to consider we have no 2022 style cascade collapses I spoke about that before we had Luna FTX 3AC um Celsius Voyager all of that what do we have right now right like we had one huge [ __ ] uh future collapse from Binance or whatever they said it was. Uh that kind of all resulted in a wick and that's it.

[00:37:18]Stable coin supply was not contracting.

[00:37:21]Um I haven't prepared the chart but in every bare market you can see the stable coin supply uh moving the complete different direction as that it's moving right now. actually the top indicators did not fire, right? So that's also something that's actually uh completely different this time. And if you look at for example blockchain decoded, what's super interesting is we created the Bitcoin heat meter. Let me show you this. So the Bitcoin heat meter is a collection of multiple indicators. Risk wave by cycle top logarithmic regression band blah blah blah blah blah blah.

[00:37:55]Well, there's always one indicator that could be wrong, right? There are always two that could be wrong. But if you add multiples on top, right, and in my opinion, that's the best way to do it.

[00:38:04]You just get an average that you can pretty much hold on to, especially if you do it with a dollar cost approach, right? You see that the average cycle tops was 86, 90, 96. This was 59, right?

[00:38:19]59 in 2021 because the top indicators fired right here and not here. Price even went a little bit higher right there. Um but overall if you uh look at this this was actually more like 88 right was actually 88 but let's take the lower one right let's keep it real was the top so whatever 59 that still gives us an average of 83 right 83 it's where it tops on average right this top this top this top and this stop right if you look where we top right now if October was the top was 40, right? That's not even half of it. That's not diminishing.

[00:39:01]That's not like, well, yeah, there's some wiggle room. That's like completely off, right? And again, you could say like, well, it's because all the indicators are not draw now wrong. Yeah.

[00:39:13]Or because this wasn't the top, right?

[00:39:16]2019 uh is here, you know, they also didn't flash, right? And here people all said like, well, indicators don't matter anymore. everything's going to [ __ ] like uh co [ __ ] it all up. No, it was eventually it just wasn't the top yet, right? So, something to consider. The list is getting pretty long. Um and in all honesty, there should be two here, but it doesn't really compensate for what we have so far. Um business cycle uh looked early, not late. macro looked uh closer to a new expansion phase than a completed four-year cycle, which is somewhat like the ISM actually. Um, but it it it just didn't finish. But let me actually remove that from the pal because it's kind of the same. This was AI putting my thesis together. Thanks for that. Like that should have been the same one. Uh, okay. Whatever. The Bitcoin draw down did not match a deep bare bath, right? Um and and and that's kind of what you can see uh again right uh here as well right the draw down itself it's just not the same as well even if you account for diminishing returns if you look at 2021 by now we should be sitting at minus minus 70% or so if you look at 2017 we should be sitting at minus um 63% by now right we're sitting at minus 36 So even if despite all of this you say like for some reason like no it's like still all the same then and it's it's a regular bare market then what a weak ass bare market this is right um so something to consider and structure mapped closer to 2019 again right it all adds up to everything that you look at it's not really 2021 it's not really 2015 it's not But if you look at 2019, oh [ __ ] it starts to really look like that, right? So keep that in uh in mind. Um do we already have this chart right here? We have a really cool chart actually. Uh we don't have it here. Well, subscribe to Blockchain Decoded. You'll find it anyway. Um so let's go over a couple bottom indicators. And again, I I know that this video is long, but I think that this is super important. If you uh realize this then then you can at least you know come to a better conclusion if you have all the information right. So, the bi-weekly RSI, right? If you take a look at Bitcoin and you take a look at one of the strongest bottom indicators, and I have like 30, but I mentioned five right now, though. But if you look at the uh the RSI, right, on the bi-weekly, right? So, let's go to the twoe RSI. In the meantime, let me know down below what you think so far because at the beginning of the video, hopefully you posted a comment like same or not same.

[00:42:08]Um, did your mind change? I'm very curious. Um but if you look at the bi-weekly RSI it is pretty obvious right like if you look at this zone right here right what is this is this like and apart from the fact like is it different is it not different let's try to let that go for now right because a lot of people are using that to say that they are bearish right now and then I just want to ask you whenever the RSI was sitting at these levels right here am Am I really an idiot for saying that this is a fantastic place to dollar cost average? Are you really telling me that blind tested, right? Are you really telling me like no dcaing at these levels is [ __ ] stupid?

[00:42:59]Really? Are you really trying to like I don't know. um 200 weekly moving average, right? So, another indicator that's pretty interesting, right? And again, this is not about timing the bottom or timing the top or anything, right? Because if you look at the 200 weekly moving average, look back at history. Whenever we got to the 200 weekly moving average, right, very close to or at it or whatever, and again, you started dcaing right there. Was there a single moment in history that you would have regretted that right here? No.

[00:43:41]Here, no. Here, no. And even here, no.

[00:43:46]If you started dollar costing at $22,000, right? Oh, cool. You add up more at 15, right? You're back here 25 at the 200 weekly moving average. Maybe even a little bit at 30. Was that like is that not like the definition of an accumulation area? Right? Whether we go, you know, like this cycle, maybe a little bit below it, and maybe at this cycle, we don't go below it, but we touch it. And like this cycle, we wick below it. Like, it's all different in their own type of way. Like wick, touch, uh, break.

[00:44:18]Yeah. What? Why is this time maybe not a little above it then, right? Because if you look right here, Yeah. Sorry, but Bitcoin went to what was it? uh 60,000 and the 200 weekly was sitting at 58.

[00:44:36]Is that not like close enough to say like well it's pretty good, right? But no, we are waiting to time the bottom because we will go below. That's so dangerous. It's just dangerous production cost for Bitcoin. Also, one of the best bottom indicators there has ever been and I mentioned it in the last video.

[00:44:58]If miners, you know, if it cost them more money uh to uh mine a bitcoin than that than what they're getting for it, then they will just simply stop selling, right? Well, that that is kind of a theory that explains why this has always been a floor, right? And apart from the wicks, this has literally functioned as a floor. So unlike again if we should go lower then it means that this is different again and that's the hypocritical part about the people that stick to a 4ear cycle in my opinion. I'm not trying to offend anyone though but if they're saying that this time is the same they're also saying that this time is different right if you know what I mean. And then I'm like, then what is it? And why do we cherry pick like, yeah, but that's different, but that doesn't count and this the same and this does count. Like, yeah, I can like if that's the way you should argument, that's I don't know. But yeah, and again, uh, we went there in February, right? Uh, exactly perfect, actually.

[00:46:09]So, yeah, again, fear and greed. Well, we kind of went over that uh on the the beer and weed index. Uh anyway, right.

[00:46:19]Uh we have a regular fear and greed index. But if if you look at the beer and weed index um yeah then again if if you look at this like okay when around these levels was it stupid to buy? literally win, right? Even during this midcycle uh dump in 2021 right here, if you bought there, you got a fat 2x out of it like crazy. That beats buying and holding any time, right? Um so are we also saying that fear and greed and that sentiment doesn't matter anymore because hey, there are now ETFs and all of that.

[00:46:56]Yeah, if ETFs were holding like 80% of the supply, then I could, you know, go along with that. But that's not really the case, is it?

[00:47:03]risk wave again. Um if you look at the risk wave for Bitcoin, also our own uh indicator, every time the risk wave flash green on the longer time frame for Bitcoin right here. Perfect moment to get in right here. Perfect moment to get in right here. Perfect moment to get in right here. It flashed very briefly during COVID. Even that one it got it right. And now we got it again.

[00:47:30]Right. And not even we just got it again. We got it. It started flashing green at the exact low at the day of the low. That's how freaking good this indicator is, right? Don't underestimate this one. Risk wave is crammed, man. So also risk wave that has never been wrong.

[00:47:55]Are we then putting that on the pile of like no that's also not relevant this time it's getting like really really handpicked uh that way right so two that are actually the same because I forgot one and then 14 because I you know two have to kind of merge so two against 14 right there you Now I can make this 30 and I can make this five as well. I know that that somebody somebody uh once mentioned in the comments uh he said like uh well look at the uh the Fibonacci right so if you look at the Fibonacci right here 786 if you look at the Fibonacci right here from the bottom to the top uh 786 right and if you add the Fibonacci right now and you would look at the 786 that's sitting at around 40k right here right yeah and that's true but That's in my opinion one step too far.

[00:49:00]Well, it is diminishing every time we go way below uh the 786. Here we go pretty below it. Here we go slightly below it.

[00:49:09]So here we should not even go below it if that's the case. But also that's if you measure it from bottom to top. But again the whole fouryear cycle uh you know dismantling kind of uh assumption right here is is this the top in the first place? Right? Is this something that we should even use for that?

[00:49:29]Because if it turns out that this is not the top and the top will eventually be here or here, then hey, makes sense, right? Like, so I don't know. There are always indicators of course that say like, yeah, we can go maybe a little lower, maybe not, maybe, I don't know.

[00:49:42]Overall, um, a lot of reasoning for why it's not like a typical bare market. And I don't know if you missed that video, but I spoke about a lot of bottom indicators uh this year. And then I let AI uh unbiasedly multiple models as well, right?

[00:50:02]Completely analyze uh that uh specific indicator like the bi-weekly RSI that we spoke about. So we had Entropic uh cloud 4.6, we had GPT 5.4, we had cloud haiku, we had grock, right? all looking at all these indicators, all of them, and adding more to it that we missed. And there are 35 indicators measured in total. And I said like, well, you know, eventually normalize it to a score from zero, which is absolute bottom, to 100, which is absolute top. And it gave us 20. Right? And this is not again, I know that if you hear it from me, you might be like, "Yeah, but you want it to go up. I don't mind it going down." Uh, also, by the way, um, but this is unbiased AI, not prompted like, hey, does it go up? No, just like analyze it.

[00:51:02]Analyze it. Right.

[00:51:05]Also mentioning this 20 out of 100, right? 2022 bottom was 18.

[00:51:14]Yeah, 18. We're now at 20 and we're going to be bearish at 20 because it maybe goes to around 18 this time as well. I I don't know. So, that's what I'm looking at. And there's like again there's so much more that I can uh mention about the 4year cycle theory. Um, but that would make this video like way too long. But again, also look at things like logarithmic regression, right? You can also see for yourself like, hey, every, you know, bare market bottom, it gets like near the top or near the bottom of this trend line, right? Or add it or maybe a little below it. But that's the bottom. Here's the bottom.

[00:52:03]Here's the bottom. Here's the bottom.

[00:52:05]And now we went there again, right?

[00:52:09]Like we are now going to say like no everything is everything is different to justify why this time is the same.

[00:52:18]Again, it's uh a lot of preaching right now, but I hope it was useful. Something to keep in uh consideration.

[00:52:25]If you do like the video, let me know by liking the video. I'm going to wrap it up right here again. Let me know down below. Is it the same? Is it different?

[00:52:32]But let me know why. Uh that's so valuable. I don't mind if you whatever you think, but I'm curious to the reasoning behind it. So, let me know.

[00:52:39]Thanks for watching. Uh, sorry for wasting 52 minutes of your time. Um, I'll see you guys in the next