Crypto Corner: Warsh Bullish for Crypto, Examining Bitcoin & MSTR Key Levels

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:12]Welcome back to Crypto Corner here on Schwab Network. I'm Jenny Horne and joining me today is Nate Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. So Nate, let's start on the policy front. Kevin Warsh suggested he would have fewer qualms about opening the US banking system to crypto. So how meaningful could that be for this broader adoption?

[00:00:36]Yeah, good good morning, Jenny. Uh you know, so Kevin Warsh, as we know, appointed by Trump, uh you know, Trump administration is uh for lower rates uh for crypto. Uh Kevin did come out, of course, and say that, you know, Fed independence is important. Um you know, first of all, let me just say that he he held up pretty well uh for that grilling and I think it's kind of just customary, almost initiation, that any Fed chair that's coming up in in front of the Senate Banking Committee is just going to get grilled. It's like a you know, a part of the process. And so he did a really good job with that, but ultimately how this translates uh to, you know, crypto is as he was speaking yesterday, we saw bond yields kind of rise a little bit.

[00:01:18]Yeah, I would say net net he is dovish and he, you know, the concern from the Banking Committee was that uh he would just be um you know, a a as Senator Warren said, a sock puppet for Trump, meaning he would just cut rates if Trump wants to cut rates and he pushed back and said, "No, we need Fed independence." Having said that, he did kind of back his stance that he can see rates going lower. Uh so I think he's net dovish. Um he really has a a stance of that um number one, that this the Fed can look through this one-time price shock. They can use median inflation expectations.

[00:01:55]He doesn't believe tariffs uh are causing inflation.

[00:01:59]He doesn't believe that the Fed needs to be uh meeting every 6 weeks. They can meet less than that. Um he's a little bit questionable about the dot plots and the the transparency, the communication that the Fed is putting out there, that could be uh put back some. And he wants to reduce the balance sheet. But you look at his background and his holdings uh uh is basically he's got 12, you know, crypto-related companies or trading exchanges within his $100 million plus uh holdings. Now, he'll have to sell that, but I think the important thing is that um probably monetary policy number one, generally the looser you are, the more dovish you are as a Fed chairman, generally uh you know, it's a limited time frame in terms of history and only a number of chairmen that we've had, uh that's bullish for Bitcoin. But um beyond that, he's also pro-crypto. Uh he he just basically said that digital assets are already uh infused into our economy and important uh part of our economic or financial ecosystem when he was asked by uh Cynthia Loomis whether they should play a part. And so he has expertise. He brings expertise about crypto. Uh he's had investments in there, which means he is a vouch for that. He has kind of distinguished Bitcoin from the other cryptos, meaning it's an important technical innovation.

[00:03:26]Uh and so net net it feels like this chairman, this Fed chairman, um monetary policy number one is probably going to be the most important influencer for crypto prices, in my opinion. But then number two, uh because of his background and because of his stance, uh it it be he he's a presence, so to speak, for the crypto industry within the Federal Reserve, should he be confirmed, of course.

[00:03:49]Okay, and as always, we'd like to check in on the technicals. So with Bitcoin, what are you watching right now from a chart perspective?

[00:03:56]Yeah, Jenny. So uh you know, today's Wednesday, we're recording this show, um but Bitcoin is looking really good today in the sense that it's up roughly 5%.

[00:04:06]Um it has we finally have an uptrend and I would say a break or a breach or a push above uh the downtrend. So Jenny, if you take those, you know, top the at the right side of the chart or the excuse me, the left side of the chart, middle chart, you do a diagonal line, you do a downward trend, Bitcoin has moved above that, which is bullish. Uh we've moved above this roughly 75K area, where it struggled a couple of times to get above, so that was resistance. 75K should be support.

[00:04:39]Um I will say that aqua line on the chart, the 100-day simple moving average, it's we're right at it right now. So this is a little bit of a test if we can move uh above or close, I should say. There's not really a close um because it's 24 24/7 that it's trading. But if you want to see a uh let's let's see a multi-day move where it's at least above this 100-day simple moving average, that would be incrementally bullish. Uh and then of course, the 200-day simple moving average, roughly around 95K, that would be your next resistance, but you know, Jenny, the bottom line is from the October highs, we got cut in half down to 60K. We went through some sideways consolidation. We exhibited, we being Bitcoin, exhibited some relative strength during the Iran conflict. Uh then we established an uptrend, moved above the 50-day simple moving average.

[00:05:34]Now we're right at the 100-day simple moving average. Uh and the RSI is basically at 66 right now.

[00:05:42]RSI is a momentum indicator. You actually want to see the RSI moving higher with this uptrend. Uh and it's obviously 70 is the textbook overbought level, but when you begin to go into a breakout where you can break out above prior resistance, let's see how price responds, but I would say ultimately the past couple of weeks here, technically bullish for Bitcoin.

[00:06:08]Okay, and what are you seeing from that same technical standpoint from MicroStrategy, which is now breaking above its its 50-day moving average and of course, seeing a pretty nice uptrend, especially on this Wednesday?

[00:06:19]Yeah, and and no doubt. I kind of wanted to just touch on MicroStrategy. I think >> [laughter] >> anybody within the crypto space uh knows of Michael Saylor uh and uh strategy uh that is basically a Bitcoin holding company, among other things. They have other products as well. But if we take a look at strategy, um it's a bit of a proxy for Bitcoin because of their holding. Um it is, as you can see on the chart here, breaking out. In fact, if we were to close right here, right now, uh this would be the highest closed uh going back to January, which is technically bullish.

[00:06:54]MicroStrategy has already moved above its 100-day simple moving average here.

[00:07:00]Uh the move or the breakout here recently, over the past 5 days, has been um done with higher volume, which is a technical confirmation. So that's a nice checkbox to see. Uh we've got the relative strength index uh in the lower pane there. And if you look right now, a little bit hot at 72, but keep in mind, if you're above 70 on your RSI, technically the textbook is you're in um overbought territory, but that's not really the case. You you meaning when you're in one of these uptrends, you want to see the RSI continue to kind of move higher. It's speaking to the momentum. It kind of speaks to accumulation.

[00:07:43]And in the past, I've seen MicroStrategy get up to 90 on the RSI and I'm not suggesting that's going to happen, but this RSI that we have here recently above 70, it's the first time that MicroStrategy has done so since last May. I put that in the bullish camp and a little checkbox there on the RSI for the confirmation of momentum.

[00:08:08]Okay, so appreciate it, Nate Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Thank you so much for joining us today. That's going to wrap up this edition of Crypto Corner.

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