MSTR BTC Yield Hits 13.3% After $1.5 Billion Debt Buyback

本站添加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, TJ here back with another video. So, it looks like MSTR is continuing to go down once again, even though the rest of the broader market jumped. And what kind of I first noticed on Tuesday after a long weekend and a long Memorial Day weekend. Hope everybody enjoyed their weekend. It looks like Micron and those memory stocks have ran much higher. So, I remember I posted a little bit about DRAM. That is the memory ETF that has some of these chip stocks like SanDisk and Micron in it. Okay, I think I recommended that on this channel at about 50 bucks. It's already over $60.

[00:00:38]So, that is happening at the same time that MSTR is selling off to where it looks like we are still in the middle of a pivot out of crypto and into some of these memory chip stocks. We're going to talk a little bit more about it in this video. So, if you enjoy my content, please smash the like button and also subscribe to the channel as well. And after you subscribe to the channel, smash the join link to join my Discord.

[00:01:02]It's only 20 bucks a month. You can chat with other MSTR investor um club members inside our private Discord. So, let's hop right into it. Let's talk about the broader market. So, I'm over on the Wall Street Journal. It says the Idaho chipmaker that doubled to $1 trillion in 48 days. So, Micron's rise helps lift S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Tuesday. So, it looks like this semiconductor rally uh it's been going on for a couple It looks like it's been going on for a few weeks now. I think ever since um pretty much a mid-April, these stocks have been running. So, now Micron is a trillion-dollar company. Unbelievable.

[00:01:40]Pretty quick what's been going on. Let's just read a little bit about the Wall Street Journal. Uh it says the Boise, Idaho-based maker of memory chips closed above $1 trillion market value for the first time on Tuesday. A sign of how even the most basic elements of the AI build-out are getting swept up in a year-long frenzy for semiconductor stocks. So, right now semiconductor stocks are absolutely soaring, okay?

[00:02:03]That and that's not necessarily good for for crypto stocks, okay? So, while the street is raising price targets on all of these crypto I'm sorry on these memory stock memory chip plays, uh crypto stocks have been crushed.

[00:02:15]Let's take a look here at MSTR. So, first off, couple of things to note is first off, let's start off with Sailor.

[00:02:22]So, this week or last week, the company did not acquire any Bitcoin. It just retired 1.5 billion in the 2029 convertible debt. So, that debt was retired at 8% discount and it also contributed to positive Bitcoin yield, okay? So, now MSTR's Bitcoin yield uh year-to-date is 13.3% and also Bitcoin per share went up, okay? So, now Bitcoin per share is at 220,900 satoshis.

[00:02:51]So, I was thinking to myself, oh, you know, was this really accretive? And I know a lot of you are thinking, but but TJ, how does this make sense? How can you simply take debt and then uh use STRC to basically equitize the debt and then pay dividends? So, I was thinking the same thing to myself, but you know, apparently if it raises Bitcoin per share, it's accretive to the shareholder. So, at this point, we just want to make sure that with all of the debt, okay? So, the company now has less debt. So, now it's under 7 billion dollars worth of debt. Uh we just want to make sure everything doesn't collapse, okay? We've got over 800,000 Bitcoin, 843,738 Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Um as long as the company can equitize this debt, so what I mean by that is basically use STRC to uh basically get these converts out because I think what Sailor's doing is he just wants to reduce um the uh reliance in the the net leverage.

[00:03:47]The net leverage means uh basically the debt uh minus the USD reserve divided by the Bitcoin reserve.

[00:03:55]So, I would assume that eventually the net leverage would somewhere uh, point towards pretty much zero as it kind of retire the debt over time. But, the interesting thing is is that now the annual yield, um, annual dividend commitment is up to 1.7 billion in annual dividend. So, equitizing some of this debt uh, could lead to some, um, uh, dividend obligations as well, but apparently uh, if it raises Bitcoin per share, it should be accretive to the shareholders assuming Bitcoin continues to go up over the long run. So, so, in the short run, I think obviously this is kind of, uh, a weird situation because the company's not really acquiring Bitcoin. It looks like they're just protecting themselves against downside risk. There's really not that much downside risk, to be honest, because with 63 billion in Bitcoin, I mean, the company almost has 10 times as much Bitcoin as debt on its balance sheet. So, it's it's it's it's in in good financial standing, but I guess this is just something just to get a get rid of the converts because, like, according to, um, we can go over to the website.

[00:04:57]So, we take a look here at those 2029 converts.

[00:05:01]Okay, they come at a conversion price of $627.

[00:05:06]Now, the interesting thing is is that Saylor sold these converts when Bitcoin was at $92,300.

[00:05:12]So, this is a good sign. And this is why the company was able to, um, retire the debt at a discount because Bitcoin is down. So, this would be really advantageous and really good move, especially if Bitcoin reverses later this year, which I think it will.

[00:05:26]And I think it'll creep back over 100K in Q4, but so far, this looks like a great idea. Also, I posted a new edition of my MSTR cover call strategies newsletter. The newsletter 13 is on the website. You can read it by signing up for a subscription.

[00:05:44]97 bucks a month, but the best deal is to get the 397, uh, yearly plan for 52 uh, issues or you can simply just if you're already a subscriber don't forget to check your email address and check some of those latest covered call trades.

[00:05:56]Okay, now for Bitcoin this week. So I know a lot of you are probably thinking but but TJ what's going on with Bitcoin you know, it was up over the weekend on Trump said he was going to um you know, basically work with peace talks with Iran. Now it looks like Bitcoin's crashed down. Well, we're in a really tumultuous time right now and this week in particular could be extremely risky. So I mentioned I talked a lot about this in depth in my newsletter. So you know, like I said if you want more further information on that just read the newsletter or just subscribe to it. You get the link in the description or the pin comment. But we take a look here. This is something interesting and a little bit worrisome that I've been thinking about as it's the 21st week for Bitcoin. And Bitcoin historically every 4 years on this week has been selling off. So it happened in 2028 Bitcoin was or down 13% and then in 2022 it was down 2%. So it's also down 2% in 2025 but this is kind of the range where I thought Bitcoin would really start to crash and MSTR as well. Okay, this also coincides with the World Cup. Okay, so the World Cup will be starting on the 23rd week of the year and we can see as of here in 2014, 2018 and 2022 both have been huge huge huge red weeks for for Bitcoin. So Bitcoin's down 9% in week 23 and 2014 it was down 12% week 20 20 week 23 and 2028 it then down 11%. So the last the last three midterm election years during the 23rd week Bitcoin has crashed.

[00:07:41]Okay, Bitcoin has simply crashed. So, it's crashed uh almost 10% three midterm election years in a row. So, what will happen on the the beginning of this week? Okay, so the beginning of the week 23rd, okay? So, this week will end on the 29th. The 21st week will end on the 29th. The trading week, I mean. And then the 22 uh the 22nd trading week will end on the 5th.

[00:08:06]So, this should end about on the 12th, okay? The 22nd week should 23rd week should end on the 12th. So, that coincides right with the beginning of the World Cup. I do believe the World Cup first match is on June 10th or June 11th. So, I do expect Bitcoin and MSTR stock to go down within the next two to two and a half weeks or so. So, my estimated timeline is I think we do have a crash before June 12th, okay? So, be sure to read my uh FIFA World Cup uh MSTR article that I posted on my blog.

[00:08:40]You just go to mstrinvestor.com to check that out. So, what I've done is like I said, I don't have a crystal ball and I've only allocated a small portion of my portfolio to this week because Bitcoin is just down so much on the 23rd week on midterm election years, I've been loading up put options with certain strikes expiring on June 12th and June um uh June expiring on June 12th and June 18th.

[00:09:08]Okay.

[00:09:11]Yeah, so I'm just taking a quick peek uh at my uh I'm I'm taking a peek at my phone in my arms. Yeah, so I'm holding them expiring on June 12th and June 18th. So, like I said, if you want to know exactly which put options that I'm holding to profit potentially from this historical midterm election year crash in Bitcoin's price, uh like I said, you'll find all of that in my Discord or you just subscribe to my newsletter to get access to that. So, like I said, that's what I'm pretty much bracing for right now.

[00:09:38]All in all, I'm still sitting on about 40% allocation uh STRC and then MSTR with the other 60% and then a little bit of cash. What I'm waiting for is I'm waiting for over the next 2 weeks. I'm just kind of minimize this. What I'm waiting for over the next 2 weeks and I really want to show this on the weekly chart. So, this could is is most likely going to be our third red week in a row. So, what I'm really waiting for is I'm waiting for this RSI here the purple the purple line if you can see this. I've waited for it to approach this yellow line here. And then I'm waiting for the price to hit any of these previous resistance levels. So, we're looking at 152 um 1 uh 43 130. Because in my opinion, where it was previously bullish, uh that can just that can be seen as a former resistance as you see here when this when the stock was starting to go down.

[00:10:33]So, now that can turn into support. So, we'll see. We'll see. But anyway, I'm more than happy um to add at cheaper prices. So, like I mentioned previous videos, I do believe we already bottomed on February 5th. So, I'm happy to add anywhere between the prices of 110 to 120 130. And what I'm going to do is I'm going to set up a bunch of different puts at certain strike prices to try to profit from this. So, like I said, I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know 100% going to I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but you know, it just looks like we're on a downtrend here and I really don't want to fight the trend. I really want to profit and protect my portfolio, especially because we already flipped uh red on the May chart. So, as I mentioned earlier, you can check out my website mstrinvestor.com/seasonality.

[00:11:17]If history repeats, we should be going much lower over the next 2 weeks or so.

[00:11:21]Brace yourself out there. Like I said, buy puts to protect your portfolio if you're worried about your price the price dropping.

[00:11:28]If you want, you could potentially take some profits here, buy back in later.

[00:11:31]But at the end of the day, this is still the bear market, so don't be surprised if we go much lower here in Bitcoin as well, okay? Let's take a look at Bitcoin's chart. Bitcoin is already dumping, okay? I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin traded at about 70k, anywhere from like 70 to 70k, 69 to 70k, probably over the next week or so. So, I don't know exactly when it's going to happen, but just brace yourself out there because it should be a little bit rockier until things get better. So, like I said, hope everybody enjoyed this video. Let me know what you think in the comments. Is the price going higher or not? And like I said, this is a short week, so we only have 3 days left in the trading session. So, just make sure if you're sitting on some put options and things like that, you have enough time until expiration because the stock might chop a little bit until we go down. So, that's it, folks. I'll wrap this video up. Hope everybody enjoyed it and let me know what you think in the comments and see you in the next one.

[00:12:26]Take care.