Democrats Score MAJOR VICTORY in Michigan Governor Race

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back to today's video.

[00:00:02]Today is Friday, May 22nd, 2026. And today we are going to be talking about the state of Michigan. And if Democrats were holding out hope in this year's governor election that it might look even better for them this midterm cycle, that wish was granted just yesterday when Mike Dugen, the former mayor of Detroit and former Democratic candidate turned independent in this race, dropped out of the race for governor. very major decision that comes at a time where Jocelyn Benson was already starting to pull ahead in the polling data now confirming that Democrats are in fact in the advantage and driver's seat in Michigan's governor's race this November. This decision comes at the eve of what is expected to be an exceptionally competitive general election season. Michigan is a state that has its system set up very similarly to every single other state, but Mike Dugen as the independent candidate fielded enough signatures to get on the ballot this November as that third party contender challenging the status quo of the traditional race of Democrat and Republican. And the Republicans had initially thought that when Mike Dougen had gotten into this race that that was going to be undeniably good news for them. Mike Dugen, having represented the city of Detroit and also having been a major player in Democratic politics in Michigan for decades on end, switching political parties and running to the right and center of the Democrats was going to be harmful in their eyes to Democrats across the state by pulling away their expected base. But the unexpected part of this is that not only did it pull away Democratic support, but Mike Dougen actually pulled away Republican support. The general election hypothetical data showed that when Mike Dougen was in this race between Jocelyn Benson and John James, John James right now, the leading Democratic contender uh for governor right now, but we'll see if he ends up winning this nomination.

[00:01:54]Right now, it seems that it's pretty solid that he's going to get there. But Perry Johnson might have uh some level of shock factor to this race. But the point is that as it stood, John James, Mike Dougen, and Jocelyn Benson were slated to face off against each other in the eventual November election. And while Jocelyn Benson did eventually start pulling away, there were periods of time where John James or even Joselyn Benson were starting to come in third place with Mike Dugen in the driver's seat, at least as of data from just 4 months ago. But as the time went on, as the nation turned against the president and in Michigan, we saw Donald Trump's approval rating go from -13 to -23, we found ourselves asking, how is that impacting the governor's race? And then the most recent data from Mitchell Research, which back in November had John James leading the contenders 37 to 31 to 18, now had Jocelyn Benson up by roughly 12 points. Not to mention that other groups that previously had had Mike Dougen doing well against all the contenders now saw Mike Dougen support slipping across the state and a lot of it returning to the Democrats. Not to mention that Mike Dougen started to pull more conservative vote than he did Democratic vote. a major difference than what his initial numbers had said when he entered into this election. And so now with Mike Dugen out of the race with no clear viable pathway to the governor's mansion, Joselyn Benson is set up quite well in this election.

[00:03:19]Immediately the race ratings changed about odds and expectations at which the Democrats win this election. You can find it the Coke Political Report immediately changed their rating from tossup to lean Democrat. I would go so far as to say this has now moved into the likely Democratic column. That's really what my estimations are. And given that now it's a head-to-head race between Jocelyn Benson and John James or Perry Johnson, whoever the Republican nominee is, I'm quite confident that Michigan will vote for the Democratic governor, just as they did in 2018 as well as 2022 because in red and blue wave years, Michigan still wants a Dem Gov. And looking at the slate of candidates on the Republican side, I'm not really all that impressed either. A lot of these hypothetical data points, you know, between Jocelyn Benson and these Republicans also tell us that Benson stands a fair chance against all of them head-to-head. There aren't really any data points that suggest that John James or uh whoever it might be, Perry Johnson or Mike Cox or whoever it is would stand a chance against Jocelyn Benson in the general election because the only real way Republicans saw a feasible pathway to the governor's mansion in a year like this one is if Mike Dougen was pulling off uh pulling off enough Democratic support that it necessitated a Republican victory just by nature of how much vote splitting was happening. But obviously that did not happen. Michigan is a state that is likely going to go to the Democrats this November and I am significantly more confident that this race ends up being closer to a double-digit race rather than a very low singledigit race which against Mike Dougen it was very much tracking to be. Now I'm not sure beyond just you know electoral chances and odds what has gotten Mike Dougen out of this race. You know he said he was in this race to win it. He had said consistently that he has never considered dropping out, never considered taking lieutenant governor uh as an appointment or anything lower because he felt, you know, I'm mayor of Detroit. I have an obligation for my city and for myself to run for governor. That was kind of the story he was selling. It was kind of the the whole stick of the matter. But by the end of it, it was very clear to voters that there were two options, Republican governor or Democratic governor. Because Mike Dougen wasn't pulling nearly as well as he should have been. he wasn't bringing in the enthusiasm and the excitement. And while he is revered, he's popular, he's liked, more of his support over time started to come from those on the right than the left. And I honestly think a lot of that had to do with the fact that many Republicans are upset with the president. Many independents who vote with the GOP are upset with the White House, upset with the Republicans in Washington DC. And so they've started to detract themselves from this national Republican brand. and in by doing so are starting to move away from candidates like John James like Perry Johnson like ex you know whoever else is running in that race whereas on the Democratic side while I do not see legions of voters saying I'm so gung-ho to be a Democrat but rather want distance from the national Republican party not to mention that as is the case in a lot of these competitive elections Michigan knows it well being a swing state this is a state that values uh the two-party system at least to the degree that they keep voting for candidates here. There was no real viable pathway for an independent here unless there was a full-on rejection of both parties. And unfortunately, that just wasn't happening. A lot of voters on the left saw Mike Dougen as a spoiler and began voting accordingly. They started going to the polls. they started going uh you know to whatever it might be fundraising metrics polling metrics uh on the ground metrics and we're starting to realize that if they weren't voting for Joselyn Benson their chance at which Mike Dugen uh you know ended up winning the governorship was actually not all that much higher but rather a more significant chance that John James could end up winning that race because right now it's a battle between the incumbent Republican party and the opposition and in this case Jocelyn Benson has presented herself as that mainstream opposition to the national Republican party. I think it would also be interesting too when you read through, you know, kind of the explanation as to why he he found himself dropping out of this race, citing a number of different things, but majorly national headwinds that are boosting Democrats. He said, quote, "If we were even in the polls and behind in fundraising, we have a path to winning. If we were behind in the polls and even in fundraising, we have a path.

[00:07:34]But we're behind in both. It's just not right to ask our volunteers, faith leaders, unions, elected officials, and donors to continue a campaign. And that in my heart, I no longer feel good about our chances to win. And a lot of what he wanted to come at this from was this realm of independence, bipartisanship, bringing both parties together. But I think that America right now is in this position where you can see it very clearly where they are in this position where they find themselves at a crossroads of one party driving the country in a direction they really don't want to go in and the Democrats who are providing an alternative. And the idea that voters are choosing a Democrat because they want them to work with the party they think is leading this country astray just doesn't make sense. That's why this pathway to the governorship could only really happen if there was a national disaection with both parties to the point that no one wanted to vote for either party. And while there may be a national disaection in so far that there are a lot of voters out there that hate Republicans and hate Democrats too, but would rather see the opposition party in this case being the Democrats in power over the Republicans that kind of axes out Mike Dougen because providing himself as this third party viable option isn't really what people see, especially if they don't see him as viable. That is the whole case to be made from his part. And unfortunately for him, it doesn't look like he's been all that successful. And coming off the 2024 election, it isn't even as if Michigan is a solid red state, right?

[00:08:58]Donald Trump won 49.7% of the vote, meaning the majority of Michigan voters voted for somebody else. And while Donald Trump did win the state, he only did so by 1.4%. The cushion there isn't high enough that a drastically more Democratic electorate wouldn't just choose the Democrat. And that's exactly what we were starting to see happen.

[00:09:17]Maybe when it was the day and age of a a different style of politicking, Mike Dougen could have won this race. Maybe in the day and age of even then Ross Pro couldn't do it. But when there were major third party contenders nationally that there stood stood to be, you know, still was a chance that there could be some level of competitive nature. For instance, states like Maine, right? Ross Perau came in second place instead of George HW Bush who was the incumbent president of the United States. Ross Perau had a tremendous impact on a lot of states. In states like California, got 21% of the vote in states like Texas, 22% of the vote in states like Miss uh Florida, 20% of the vote. It was massive. And yet he didn't win a single electoral college vote. On the national stage, Ross Perau in that election got 19% of the popular vote. The best performance for a third party contender we have seen since that date and one that we had seen for decades on end. But those day and ages are over. We've come to a point where polarization has taken hold. And in states like Michigan that know it all too well are not going to be the states that back Mike Dugen. And even just going into a bit of the autopsy over the past few months, we made a video about Michigan and the recent data from just about two weeks ago. And what we saw was very clear that Joselyn Benson was starting to pull away with this race. that John James and Mike Dougen, though individually strong candidates in opposition to Benson, were now splitting the opposition vote to Benson as governor. Now splitting the opposition vote amongst those who are independent and right-leaning and they couldn't make a clear distinction as to who they were going to back. Meanwhile, the Democrats were coalescing around Joselyn Benson in that her numbers went up from what was down, you know, you look at those numbers. Uh the last time Mitchell research fielded the race was in November of 25. She was at just 31% to gain 11%, John James lose seven, and Mike Dougen lose five is a really telling state of the race. It shows that while maybe there was an appetite for it before, it was quickly snuffed out. And to see that John James hasn't even found himself within all that much of competitive nature because it's no doubt of mine that a lot of the supporters for Mike Dougen will find home in the Joselyn Benson camp because the reason they're with Dugen is because they like what he did as a as mayor of Detroit.

[00:11:30]They like what he did as a Democrat when he was a Democrat in elected office. And so many of them, I'd say the majority, you'll find to be uh at least as it stands right now going back home to the Democrats or maybe if not half enough that it expands Jocelyn Benson's advantage that John James just simply doesn't have the ability to catch up by election day. And while he himself is an individually electorally experienced and impressive candidate, nothing can overcome a waiver like this. just asked the 2022 midterms when even then in a red wave year as it was meant to be tutor Dixon couldn't even come close to Gretchen Whitmer because the vibes of the abortion referendum and what we saw in the aftermath of the DOS decision and Tutor Dixon kind of being this fifth place contender who was skyrocketed into victory because all the top five Republicans were disqualified from running. The combination of factors led to Michigan being a double-digit seat for the Democrats to win in the governor's mansion. And this time around, I could see it happening again.

[00:12:30]A third party contender who Republicans thought would be their saving grace ends up being quite diminishing in terms of their performance. And even with him in the race, that was the only real pathway they had to victory. And even with when he was there, it still didn't seem like it was going to happen. And now he's out. Now he's made the decision to drop out of the Michigan governor's race. and the Democrats stand to be in a tremendously good position for this election. I'd argue that, you know, I think Jocelyn Benson is at over a 90% chance at victory uh in the Michigan governor's race in a major and decisive decision now that Mike Dougen is out.

[00:13:04]So, we'll keep tracking this race. We'll probably have to wait until we get some more substantive and concrete data about this general election, the matchup between the Democrats and Republicans here, because it doesn't seem to be a three-way race. I honestly think that this is probably going to be one of the easier races to track across the governor elections. Will be far more competitive races in states like Ohio, states like Georgia, states like Arizona, states like Alaska. Whereas Michigan, I'd say, you know, as much as I do think the historical nature and the competitive nature of Michigan in the past is a prevailing factor, I do not think it will be the deciding one this November. Michigan is still a state that is, you know, elastic. It swings as the country does, as we saw in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. And I have no doubt that 2026 will be any different.

[00:13:50]And I think when we look at this state in particular, it will be interesting to see just how much of an expansive lead that Joselyn Benson takes over John James or Perry Johnson or whoever it is in this election. Because now with Mike Dugen out, the Republicans are going to have to campaign in a way that is equally in support of the president and his unpopular agenda items while also uh recognizing the change that Michigan is looking for at the ballot box. And right now, I don't know if any of these Republican contenders can really offer that, especially given that many of them are too closely associated with Donald Trump on the national stage. And it looks like even Donald Trump might have recruited Perry Johnson to get in this race himself. We'll track it. We'll watch it. and we'll have to see exactly how this election shapes up. But as it looks so far, uh, good numbers for the Democrats and some amazing news out of this tape, which all but guarantees them the governor mansion for another 4 years. So, thank you guys so much for watching this video. Make sure to comment down suggestions below.

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