You Have NO Idea What Could Happen to Silver When Markets Open This Monday

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Markets are closed right now. Silver is not trading.

[00:00:03]In between now and 6:00 p.m. ET Sunday, when the Comex reopens for electronic trading, something is going to happen in one of three places that will determine where silver opens Monday morning. It will happen in Islamabad, or in Washington, or in the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:18]And the financial media, which is off for the weekend, will not be there to explain it to you in real time. So, you need to understand the setup before Monday arrives. Because when that open happens, you are not going to have time to think. You're going to need to already know what you are watching and why. Let me give you exactly that.

[00:00:34]Silver closed Friday, May the 22nd at $75.35 per ounce, down 1.69% on the day, according to Trading Economics. July futures had opened at $77.01, slid earlier to $76.11 by 7:11 a.m. ET per Yahoo Finance, and finished the week near the lows. The week as a whole looked like stability on the surface. Yahoo Finance noted that opening prices since Monday had moved in a tight range of just $3.97, and the average swing between daily open and close was a mere $0.86.

[00:01:06]"Silver prices hardly moved all week," their headline said. That framing is technically accurate and completely misleading at the same time. Because the tight range is not stability. It is compression. It is a coiled market holding its breath in front of three simultaneous unresolved events, every one of which can move silver 5% to 10% in a single session when it resolves.

[00:01:25]You need to know what those events are and exactly what each outcome means for your position.

[00:01:29]Let me walk you through all three. The first, and most important event, is the Iran negotiation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged slight progress in mediated discussions on Friday, but specifically cautioned that Washington and Tehran had not yet reached a deal.

[00:01:43]Iranian media reported Iran's foreign minister met with Pakistan's interior minister on Friday to discuss potential war-ending proposals.

[00:01:50]On Wednesday, May 20th, Trump told reporters the administration was in the final stages of negotiations, which sent oil down more than 5% in a single session.

[00:01:59]WTI crude closed at $98.26, the first close below $100 since the war began on February 28th. Brent closed at $105.02.

[00:02:09]On that same Wednesday, ship tracking data confirmed several tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz successfully, including a South Korean supertanker and two Chinese supertankers in what was described as one of the highest volume days for oil movement through the strait since the war started. And then by Friday, doubts resurfaced. Oil prices climbed back toward their four-year peaks as investors reassessed whether a breakthrough was actually imminent.

[00:02:30]Silver gave back Wednesday's gains and closed near its weekly lows. The deal is in the final stages, or it is not.

[00:02:36]That is the binary this weekend is sitting on.

[00:02:39]And the resolution of that binary is what makes Monday's open genuinely unpredictable in a way that no week since this conflict began has been.

[00:02:47]Here is what each scenario looks like when the comics open Sunday evening. If a deal is confirmed over the weekend, or credible confirmation from both sides arrives Sunday, the comics open at 6:00 p.m.

[00:02:58]ET Sunday is going to look like May 6th all over again.

[00:03:01]That was the session when Axios reported that the White House believed it was close to a one-page peace memorandum with Iran and silver jumped roughly 5% to $77 in a single morning, while gold pushed toward $4,700.

[00:03:14]Except this time, if the deal is actually confirmed rather than rumored, the move will be larger because the market on May 6th was pricing a rumor. A confirmed deal prices a structural shift. Oil drops toward $90 or below instantly. The entire energy contribution to the April CPI of 3.8%, which is the single data point that drove the rate hike probability above 55% and crushed silver from 86.73 to 75.35 in nine trading sessions, begins unwinding on the next inflation print.

[00:03:43]Silver does not wait for that print to move. It moves the moment the market believes the energy shock is over. A confirmed deal this weekend means silver opens Monday above $80. It means the 86 to 73 high from May 13th is back in view by Wednesday. It means the June 16th to 17th FOMC meeting, which currently has a 97.4% probability of a hold and a greater than 55% probability of a rate hike by year end, gets completely repriced. The dot plot that comes out of that meeting looks entirely different in a world where oil is at $88 than in a world where oil is at $108.

[00:04:18]Now, here is the scenario nobody is modeling clearly enough.

[00:04:21]If the deal collapses over the weekend, if Trump rejects Iran's terms again the way he did on May 11th when he posted that Iran's counter proposal was totally unacceptable, or if Iran walks away from the Pakistan mediated framework, then oil is back above $110 before Tuesday's open.

[00:04:37]Silver is back at $70 support by Wednesday. The rate hike probability that is already above 55% climbs towards 70%. And the structural floor at $70 that has held every test since the March 23rd panic low of roughly $61 faces its most serious challenge since this entire correction began. That is the other side. It is real. Know it. And if the weekend produces nothing definitive, which is the third scenario and frankly the most likely one given how many times this negotiation has cycled through optimism and rejection since February, then Monday's open is a continuation of Friday's close. Silver in the mid 70s.

[00:05:12]Oil in the $100 to $108 range. Rate hike odds above 55% and the market waits for the next catalyst, which is Q1 GDP data due Thursday, May 28th at 8:30 a.m. ET.

[00:05:24]Initial jobless claims also due May 28th. Those numbers will define the growth side of the stagflation equation.

[00:05:31]And the stagflation equation is the cage that silver is trapped in right now.

[00:05:35]Let me explain exactly why that cage exists and what it takes to get out of it because this is the insight that separates silver owners who understand what they hold from silver owners who are just watching a number move up and down and wondering why.

[00:05:47]Silver has two engines, the monetary engine and the industrial engine. In normal market conditions, both engines run together and silver benefits from both simultaneously.

[00:05:55]The monetary engine is the precious metals safe haven and store of value premium that silver shares with gold.

[00:06:01]Driven by low real yields, a weak dollar, and inflation that erodes the value of holding cash.

[00:06:07]The industrial engine is the demand from solar manufacturing, electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure, AI data centers, and every other industrial application that requires silver's unmatched electrical conductivity.

[00:06:19]In a world of falling rates, a weakening dollar, and a growing green economy, both engines fire together. That is when you get the moves that turn silver from $33 per ounce in January 2025 into $121.64 by January 29th of this year. A gain of 148% in 12 months. Both engines firing simultaneously. The war broke the monetary engine. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, oil crossed $100 a barrel. Oil above $100 means energy prices up 17.9% annually.

[00:06:51]Energy prices up 17.9% means April CPI at 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023. CPI at 3.8% means the Fed cannot cut. The Fed unable to cut means real yields stay elevated. Real yields elevated means the opportunity cost of holding silver rather than a Treasury bond is at its highest in more than a year. The monetary engine is not just stalled, it is running in reverse. Every time silver gets close to breaking out above $80, the monetary headwind pushes it back.

[00:07:20]Meanwhile, the industrial engine is still running.

[00:07:23]It is running slower than it was before the war because elevated energy costs have disrupted manufacturing activity globally, but it is not stopped. The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026, published April 15th, confirmed the sixth consecutive annual supply deficit at 46.3 million ounces. The cumulative deficit from 2021 through 2025 is approximately 900 million ounces. Mine output is flat at roughly 820 million ounces per year with about 72% produced as a byproduct of copper and zinc mining that cannot be ramped up in response to silver prices. China's export licensing restrictions, effective January 1st, 2026, continue to wall off between 60% and 70% of global refined silver from the international market, according to Peel Hunt.

[00:08:10]Goldman Sachs continues to describe silver as the primary strategic metal of the green transition.

[00:08:15]The COMEX physical coverage ratio stands at 13.4% meaning paper leverage is running at 7.5 times the available deliverable supply.

[00:08:24]The industrial engine is idling. It is not off. The Iran deal restarts the monetary engine. That is the complete thesis in one sentence. A confirmed deal that reopens the strait fully and removes the energy shock from the inflation calculation, takes silver from a one engine vehicle running on industrial demand alone to a two engine vehicle with both the monetary and industrial premium firing at the same time.

[00:08:46]That is not a 5% move. That is the kind of move that takes silver from 75 dot to 95 dot in a matter of weeks.

[00:08:55]And the institutional forecasts, the $90 year-end target from Commerzbank, the $150 H2 2026 target from Citigroup, the $135 to $309 range from Bank of America's Michael Widmer, all of those targets assume both engines are eventually running. None of them assume the war is permanent.

[00:09:14]Now, let me tell you what the University of Michigan data released Friday afternoon is telling you specifically for Monday. Because this is the piece of this week's story that is not being covered clearly anywhere I can find. The preliminary May reading of the University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.5% from 4.7% in April. The five-year inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.5% both came down modestly. But the direction matters more than the magnitude in this reading.

[00:09:43]Consumer inflation expectations are a leading indicator for actual CPI because they influence wage demands, spending behavior, and the political pressure on the Fed to act.

[00:09:53]When consumer inflation expectations were at 4.8% in April as confirmed by Trading Economics data, that was a signal to the Fed that inflation psychology was becoming entrenched and that even more aggressive action is needed to anchor expectations.

[00:10:06]The preliminary reading dropping to 4.5% is the first signal that the expectation spiral is not worsening.

[00:10:13]It is not confirming a turn yet. The final reading, which was due Friday afternoon, May 22nd, will be the confirmation or denial of that preliminary signal.

[00:10:21]If the final came in at 4.5% or below, matching or improving on the preliminary, that is the first genuinely constructive inflation signal since the war began. If it revised higher toward 4.8% or above, it confirms that energy-driven inflation psychology is still deteriorating and the rate hike thesis gets stronger.

[00:10:39]The final reading from that report is what sophisticated silver traders will use to set their Monday morning positioning alongside whatever the Iran situation looks like over the weekend.

[00:10:49]Those two pieces of information together, the University of Michigan final inflation expectations reading and whatever happens in the Iran talks between now and Sunday evening, are the two inputs that are going to determine silver's Monday open. Everything else this week is secondary. Here is the fuller data picture that every silver owner needs to have in their head going into Monday.

[00:11:09]Gold is trading at $4,110 to $4,135 as of Friday per Light Finance and Startup Talky India data. The gold-silver ratio, with gold at 4,135 and silver at 75.35, sits at approximately 60.2. For context, Goldman Sachs has a year-end 2026 gold target of $5,400, which it set before the war and has held through the entire conflict. JPMorgan raised its gold target to $6,300 in February. If gold reaches even the more conservative $5,400 year-end target, and the gold-silver ratio compresses from 60 to 45, which is within the historical range for bull market phases, the implied silver price is $120.

[00:11:53]At a ratio of 35, which is where it was at the 2011 bull market peak, silver is at $154.

[00:11:59]At JPMorgan's $6,300 gold target with a 35.1 ratio, silver is at a $180. The math behind the big targets is not complicated. It is ratio compression meeting institutional gold forecasts.

[00:12:11]Those forecasts have not changed despite the war. The ratio compression is the missing piece. The monetary engine restart is what unlocks it.

[00:12:18]The next key scheduled catalyst after the weekend Iran situation resolves is Thursday, May 28th at 8:30 a.m. ET with Q1 2026 GDP data and initial jobless claims.

[00:12:29]GDP is expected to show continued weakness. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model had Q2 tracking at 3.7% before the war-driven energy shock started feeding through the data fully, but that number is likely to be revised as April and May consumer spending data reflects households absorbing 28.4% higher gasoline costs year-on-year.

[00:12:49]Weak GDP alongside hot inflation is the stagflation confirmation that makes the Fed's job impossible and silver's path genuinely binary between the two outcomes.

[00:12:59]Deal resolves the inflation side or stagflation deepens and silver faces more structural ceiling pressure from elevated real yields.

[00:13:07]Then comes June 16th and 17th.

[00:13:09]The FOMC meeting with the updated dot plot. That dot plot is the first since March 2026, and it arrives with rate hike probability above 55%. A Moody's downgrade of the US from A to A1 still reverberating through the bond market, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.59%.

[00:13:25]If the dot plot shows even three or four members moving toward cuts rather than hikes compared to March, that is a dovish signal relative to current market expectations, and silver gets immediate relief. If it shows hike consensus building, the ceiling at $80 remains intact through the summer.

[00:13:42]Here is where I want to leave you going into this weekend. The title of this video asks, what could happen to silver when markets open Monday?

[00:13:49]The honest answer is that it could get 5% higher or 5% lower, depending entirely on two variables that will resolve between now and Sunday evening, and that you cannot control. What you can control is understanding what you own and why. You own a metal in its sixth consecutive year of supply deficit. You own the primary strategic metal of the global green transition according to Goldman Sachs.

[00:14:10]You own an asset with COMEX paper leverage at 7.5 times the available deliverable physical supply.

[00:14:16]You own something that gained 148% in 2025, while institutional gold targets have only gone higher since. You own the industrial engine of a two-engine vehicle that is temporarily running on one engine because a war closed an oil choke point and broke the monetary engine. The war ends. Not if, when.

[00:14:34]Every war ends. Every energy shock normalizes.

[00:14:38]The deal being in its final stages according to Trump on Wednesday, the tankers beginning to cross the strait, the foreign ministers meeting in Islamabad on Friday, the Gulf Arab states lobbying actively for resolution.

[00:14:48]All of that points in one direction.

[00:14:50]When the deal closes, the monetary engine restarts. When the monetary engine restarts, both engines fire together.

[00:14:57]When both engines fire together in a market with 900 million ounces of accumulated structural deficit and 7.5 times paper leverage against physical supply, the price discovery event that results is not a modest recovery to $80.

[00:15:09]It is what Bank of America's $135 to $309 range is trying to tell you. It is what Citigroup's $150 target is telling you. It is what the math of a 35 to one gold silver ratio at a $5,400 gold price is telling you.

[00:15:25]Watch the Iran headlines this weekend.

[00:15:26]Watch the Comex open Sunday at 6:00 p.m.

[00:15:29]ET. Watch oil. Watch the University of Michigan final reading if you have not seen it yet.

[00:15:34]Watch Q1 GDP on Thursday, May 28th at 8:30 a.m. ET.

[00:15:39]Come back to this channel because we are tracking every development as it happens in real time.

[00:15:44]If this video gave you the setup and the framework you needed going into this weekend, share it right now with every silver owner you know because Monday's open is not going to wait for anyone to catch up. They need to understand the setup before it happens. Stay informed.

[00:15:57]Stay ahead. See you on the other side of Monday.