Simulating the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:06]Hey there everyone. Welcome back to Utility Sports presented by Prize Picks.

[00:00:12]Today is the day the NBA draft lottery is here. It has finally reached us and I am so excited. If you are as well, be sure to comment down below and manifest some luck for your favorite team. I'm a big believer in willing things into existence. So, manifest down below your favorite team to land a top four pick or even that number one pick. And in today's video, we're going to discuss the lottery odds. We're going to break down some possibilities, do some lottery simulations, and just have a great time here on the channel. So, I'm really excited. I hope you do enjoy. If you do, leave a like and subscribe. And let's jump into those lottery odds here. Now, there's a lot to break down here. First of all, reminder that there are a thousand valid combinations in the draft lottery. So, with that in mind, if we look at the odds and specifically diving in here to this first column presented by Tankathon, appreciate uh their graphic specifically, this first column tells us basically how many combinations each of these teams have for the first overall pick. Washington, Indiana, and Brooklyn with the three worst records in the NBA all have 140 different combinations that would give them or grant them the first overall selection.

[00:01:27]Utah and Sacramento have 115 such combinations. Memphis with 90, New Orleans, which would convey to Atlanta with 68, Dallas with 67, the Chicago Bulls with 45, Milwaukee with 30, Golden State with 20, the Clippers with 15, which would convey to the Thunder, the Heat with 10, and the Hornets with five.

[00:01:50]Now, it sounds like for some of those you'd say, "Wow, that's very unlikely."

[00:01:53]But the crazy thing is it's not talking about odds over the course of a thousand simulations, which is ideally what your data would tell you. But when you have a singular drawing, one real lottery simulation, one event, one draft lottery like we do in real life, anything can happen. And we saw that last year. The Mavericks had just 18 combinations that would grant them the first overall pick and one of them struck and they landed Cooper Flag. So, anything can really happen. I think that's such an important thing to remind you guys about the odds is the odds give you an idea of what very well could happen, what the most likely outcomes are. But in one single drawing, anything could happen.

[00:02:32]Remember, the top four picks are done through the drawing here. So just these first four selections, which is why a team like Memphis, who have the sixth worst record in the NBA, cannot have pick number five because 5 through 30 are done through reverse standings. If you have any questions about the draft lottery, comment down below. And a quick reminder, the draft lottery is today at 3 p.m. Eastern time. I will be live on the channel for hours leading up to the event so that we can talk through more possibilities. have a great time together and I want to give back to my community as well and spend a lot of time with you guys in the chat talking about different possibilities asking your qu or answering your questions that you ask me and just having a great time because I really do appreciate you and from the bottom of my heart I wanted to say thank you. Uh this 2026 draft cycle has been an absolute blessing over the last 365 days. I've had over a million views on the channel. I've just incredibly blessed and I'm very thankful to each and every one of you. I hope you can feel my gratitude towards you through the camera here. I truly do mean it. You guys have changed my life for the better. And I want you to keep me in mind, too. If you know anyone who's ever looking to hire someone for a basketball role in any capacity, I'm always open to those kinds of possibilities. I'm super thankful for you all. Uh, word of mouth is such a great thing to benefit many around you and I feel like you guys help me in so many ways and I'm just very grateful and appreciative of everything that I've been blessed with from you specifically in this community. So again, from the bottom of my heart, thank you. Thank you so much. And let's jump into those lottery simulations now.

[00:04:04]So excited for it. We had to use ESPN's new site, of course, to share our first lottery simulation. Little bit of a disclaimer. I am going to toggle back and forth between the new ESPN Simulator and Tankathon today. Having a little bit of fun with both of them, but let's get this lottery action started here. We're going to autoplay it. At number 14, the Charlotte Hornets come in. So, as you can see, the teams are on the left and then they would get slotted in. And already we have some craziness. The Miami Heat jump up into the top four.

[00:04:33]So, if you don't see a team in the slot that you were projecting them, that means they moved up. So, Miami is in the top four now. Milwaukee falls down to 11. Golden State and OKC both fell down a pick. Already some shenanigans here in our first simulation. Chicago stays at number 10. I'm planning on doing about four or five simulations in this video.

[00:04:52]So, we'll see the Mavericks move up into the top four. I can already hear the comments going. Comment down below what you think about these simulations, too.

[00:04:59]And then, obviously, what you want to happen, manifest that luck for your favorite team. Like I said earlier, Sacramento comes in at number seven.

[00:05:06]Obviously heartbreaking for that organization and franchise if that were to be reality. The Clippers here at number six, which means the Wizards will actually have picked number five as well. And that means the Nets and Jazz are in the top four. Wow. Top four now.

[00:05:24]Mavericks at number four. We'll see where that Miami pick ends up. That will drastically shape the future of that organization. Utah comes in at pick number three, which means it's either Brooklyn or Miami for that top spot. The Heat get the second overall pick in this first simulation, and that delivers.

[00:05:42]Brooklyn the first overall pick in the draft with this lottery simulation. I had a lot of fun with this first one.

[00:05:50]Few things I want to talk about. First of all, again, I hope it was clear to you that Miami, who is projected to slot in at number 13, if they don't when Mark Tatum reveals the picks tonight. When he gets number 13 and if he opens the envelope and it's a different logo than the Heat, that means the Heat jump up into the top four like they did in this simulation. That is how the actual process of revealing the picks works. So that you're aware, if the Clippers pick comes in at number six, that means definitively that the Wizards also have pick number five. So when Mark Tatum opens the envelope for number six and if the Clippers or Pacers logo pops up here, that means, you know, the Wizards got the fifth overall pick because the lottery is only the top four picks and then five through 30 are reverse standing. So, if Indiana's falls to six, that means there's also another team that bumped them down a spot from where they would have been at five if they weren't in the top four, which means Washington is in at five definitively in that situation. What a crazy top four this would be, by the way, with Brooklyn, Miami, Utah, and Dallas. I feel like Utah would be in a great spot to add uh still an elite talent to their roster one way or another here, whether it's Camboozer uh or Darren Peterson. Obviously, Caleb Wilson very likely could be on the the board at that point. Brooklyn, I feel like would just lean toward AJ Deans at number one. I feel like that is probably the case for a majority of these NBA franchises. Miami at number two would be a really interesting spot. Boozer would be such a fascinating front court fit next to Bamabio would be an awesome option for the Heat. But then you also have the perceived higher up side of a guy like Darren Peterson or Caleb Wilson that I think the Heat would at least go through the process very discerningly to discover who they want to pick at number two and then Dallas at number four. Man, get Cooper Flag running mate. Uh be really great for them. Let's jump over now to Tankathon and run another lottery simulation. Our first one was crazy. A lot quicker in the process and wow wow wow wow. The Atlanta Hawks own the first overall pick in this simulation. Of course, crazy outcome here with Golden State also jumping all the way up to number two. The Sacramento Kings, I think, very earnestly need this selection here in the top three. And then the Memphis Grizzlies in at number four would be either a great landing spot for any of Camboozer or Caleb Wilson. Golden State would have a tough decision to make. Do they go the Darren Peterson route who maybe stylistically fits their offball movement and shooting and split action? Uh and then Atlanta obviously I mean Debansa giving them a league creator like that into their offensive context. A big long athletic wing would be awesome to see for them too. Crazy simulation here honestly like a lot going on. The Clippers get the sixth pick again. Washington falls down to number five again. Pacers fans and Wizards fans are saying whoa why do you hate us utility sports? You guys know that I don't. I'm secretly pulling for both Washington and Indie in the uh lottery here tonight. We'll see what happens. I'm not really rooting against anybody. I would say that's a little extreme, but there are a couple teams that I'm kind of hoping for their own sake and for their fan base's sake that uh maybe get a little bit of luck. Utah falls all the way down here, too. This is one of the craziest simulations because Sacramento was in at number five. Memphis was in at number six.

[00:09:10]Golden State was all the way down at number 11. And then the Pelicans pick was a non-top four projection as well.

[00:09:16]So we have four teams that were not slated in the top four moving up into that top four which creates this huge fall for these four teams uh for Washington, Indie, Brooklyn, and Utah.

[00:09:27]Absolutely crazy simulation here and one that would absolutely alter the course of NBA history in a big way. Let's jump back over now to the ESPN site and run our third simulation. Again, I hope you guys are having fun with this process, doing uh some simulations, talking through some possibilities. And let's uh let's reset here and take another look at a possible simulation. I love this ESPN site, by the way. I really do. It's such a great site. And let's uh start it off here at number 14, the Hornets. Once again, again, very likely, I believe, a 97.5% chance they have picked number 14.

[00:10:03]The Miami Heat, very likely to stay at number 13. Of course, our first sim proved otherwise, but uh over the course of many simulations, we'll see. But reminder, it is just one lottery drawing in real life. Anything can happen.

[00:10:16]Charlotte can move up. Any of the teams here on the screen, and this one has a little bit of pizzazz to it. The Milwaukee Bucks pick moves up, which means that Atlanta has a top four pick guaranteed, and the Bucks end up at number eight. So, I'm actually going to pause it here because this is a really important thing. the Bucks pick moved up. So now you're saying, "Okay, well, how do the Bucks have pick number eight if their pick moved up into the top four?" Remember, Atlanta owns not only the Pelicans pick, but they actually own the swap best between New Orleans and Milwaukee. So if either of Milwaukee or New Orleans picks move up in the lottery, Atlanta will claim a top four pick in those situations. So this is an absolute home run situation for the Hawks. This is probably one of the better case scenarios for Milwaukee because of that swap best and and the fact that they own the swap worst. Even if their own pick moves up, that means they got to jump Chicago. They got to jump Dallas. A very rare circumstance where there's a swap best between two lottery teams. Uh and unfortunately neither of the lottery teams even own the swap best because Atlanta, who is a playoff team, does. Memphis comes in at number seven in this simulation.

[00:11:24]Sacramento does not come in at number six. the Brooklyn Nets do, which means the Jazz and Kings are officially in the top four in this simulation. And at number five, sorry Wizards fans, once again, Washington comes in at number five. Real quick, I do want to say as the Kings get the fourth overall pick here. There is a near 48% chance, 47.9% chance that the Wizards pick at number five. They have a 52.1% chance to stay in the top four. So, you're going to see in these simulations a pretty high likelihood that they actually land pick number five. It is their most likely pick outcome from an individual pick standpoint. Although, they do have better than 50% odds at staying in that top four, which is all you can really ask for in this draft class. Atlanta ultimately gets the third pick from Milwaukee, of course, through New Orleans. Crazy trade again. Number two, Indiana. That'll do just enough justice for them. And what a feel-good story.

[00:12:23]The BYU boy AJ Debansa staying in the state of Utah. I know Jazz fans right now would be over the moon excited for a franchise that has never had the number one overall pick in their existence to land the first overall pick in the year that AJ Deansa is in school. Some would maybe scream rigged, others would scream out of excitement. And I think Jazz fans especially would do that. If you believe the lottery is rigged, there's really no point in talking about the odds or anything because you just think, okay, well, Adam Silver is gonna hand deliver these players wherever he wants them, which I don't think is true. But I understand the some of the lore, the frozen envelope. Maybe it historically had a little bit of precedent to it. My prize picks lineup is for game four of that New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76 series with the Sixers up against the ropes and the Knicks looking to close out Philadelphia in sweep fashion. I've got Jaylen Brunson at more than 29 and a half points. I'm expecting another huge game for the captain. More than 19 and a half points for Joel Embiid. I think they're going to try and get him going early in that game. As well as Kelly Ubé and Quinton Grimes being able to play off the gravity of Embiid and Maxi.

[00:13:33]They'll both capitalize with UB more than seven and a half points, Quinton Grimes more than five and a half points in this game. And then I'm going with a couple more Knicks to help hopefully close up the series for New York. uh from their perspective, more than nine and a half points for Josh Hart and more than 19 and a half points for Carl Anthony Towns who has had a tremendous postseason for himself. Some of the best defense he's played throughout his career. We'll see if he can get it going on the offensive end to close out Philadelphia. Reminder, if you use code HMA at Prize Pix and play $5, you'll get $50 instantly in lineups. Again, play $5, get $50 instantly in lineups when you use code HMA over at Price Pick.

[00:14:12]Prize Pick is now available in more than 40 states. And I would love for you guys to go follow me over on Prize Pick so that you can see all of my picks, tail my picks, and see what we've got going on here at Utility Sports. Let's reset over here on Tankathon. This is going to be our fourth lottery simulation. I'm probably going to do five because I do want to do another one on the ESPN site as well. But let's simulate here in three, two, and one.

[00:14:38]Oh, the Oh my dude, these simulations are not disappointing us right now. Wow.

[00:14:45]The the internet would blow up and I would probably blow up. I would chastise the Clippers to the highest degree. The fact that they traded away James Harden and Vita Zubots with the idea that oh well sunk cost it doesn't make sense to stick with the team. They basically intentionally sabotaged their season a little bit. And if it ends up resulting with the Thunder having the first overall pick in this year's draft, oh my goodness, this would be a dream outcome for Oklahoma City. I I I'm kind of at a loss for words even here. Washington does stay in the top two this time. So that's great for Wizards fans who have been watching this uh video. The Clippers do ultimately get picked number five. So you might say, "Well, this isn't that bad of an outcome for them."

[00:15:30]like yes, but also I don't know, man. I don't know. Atlanta gets picked number three and then Memphis at number four.

[00:15:38]Uh, wow. Just wow. I think the Thunder would probably lean toward Debansa, although Boozer and Homegrren would be such a great front court pairing together that I mean, I would at least really strongly consider that and think about it. Washington's in a great spot there. I think Boozer or Debansa would be tremendous long-term fits next to Alex Sar. Um, and then you look at uh, you know, Atlanta at number three, like you're still in a great spot. Either Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson. Two of those three guys will likely be available for you. Uh, Memphis gets the consolation prize, so to speak. But in this year's draft, it doesn't really feel like a consolation prize. Uh, again, some of the big losers in this, Indiana falls all the way down to five, loses their draft pick. Brooklyn falls all the way to six. Uh, and that's again another difficult thing to stomach for them after moving down so far in last year's lottery. Uh, Utah falls all the way to seven. Obviously would be disappointing for them. And then the Sacramento Kings fall all the way down to eight, which again would be very disappointing for that organization.

[00:16:38]Let's go over and do one more lottery simulation. Again, we've had a lot of fun, a lot of crazy stuff happen in these simulations. And let's do one more for the culture. After this video, I want you guys to all go do your own lottery simulation and then comment the results down below. I'm just in love with this lottery simulations and how everything goes. It's so much fun. Let's see uh what we've got here in our final simulation. At number 14, if I hit play, at number 14, the Charlotte Hornets come in again. How crazy would it be, by the way, if the Hornets got a top four pick in this draft? Miami comes in at 13 again. No surprises there. We've had OKC, we've had Golden State move up. I feel like we've had a little bit of everything in these five simulations, which has been perfect cuz there's been a lot to talk about. Uh the Warriors stay in at number 11. This is the most normal simulation we've had so far. Milwaukee stays in at number 10. Could we get one of those rare nothing changes drawings? Probably not. I would bet almost my entire life savings against that. Dallas comes in at number eight. We'll see at number seven what we've got here. Okay, the Hawks again jump up. You've seen how frequently Atlanta has jumped up because of the combination of odds between New Orleans and Milwaukey's pick. The Jazz come in at six, which means Sacramento is now guaranteed a top four pick.

[00:17:52]Number five, the Brooklyn Nets, which means the Pacers and Wizards both are in the top four. And Indiana does keep their pick in this final simulation.

[00:17:59]Sacramento comes in at number four. I feel like that'd be a great outcome for them regardless. They'd be able to get a really talented player. I feel like the Hawks just constantly come in at number three in a lot of my lottery simulations this year. At number two, the Washington Wizards, which would deliver the first overall pick to the Indiana Pacers. And for a team that bet on itself in a big way, trading their pick top four protected away to acquire a Vita Zubat to come into next season with Zubat, Seakum, Hallebertton, Nemhard, Nesmith, and a number one overall pick plus off the bench Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell.

[00:18:37]And of course, a few other names that I should mention too. Jarus Walker, Ben Shepard. We'll see how aggressive this team ultimately is in the offseason, but wow, what an outcome. That would be absolutely crazy. Do not forget to manifest some luck down below. Comment manifesting my favorite team, the number one pick or a top four pick. I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts. Here are a here's a quick look back at the lottery odds. If you want to screenshot this or uh spend a little bit of time, pause the video and look at it, definitely go ahead and do so. Don't forget that the draft lottery is today at 300 p.m.

[00:19:08]Eastern time. and I will be live on the channel for hours leading up to the event and through the event. It'll be a place where if you don't have access to the channel, you'll be able to hear the lottery live here on the channel. I can't physically show you it, but I will have the audio playing. So, keep that in mind. And again, just from the bottom of my heart, a huge thank you to you guys.

[00:19:29]Uh so grateful for my community. I'm I'm extremely blessed and lucky. Um hoping at some point to be working for an NBA front office, for an NBA franchise. I don't think I'm that far away from that dream, but having your support is such a big reason why I'm so confident that I'll be able to reach my lifelong dream at some point in time. So, thank you again so much. Hopefully, you enjoyed the video today. If so, comment down below. Like and subscribe to the channel if you're new. Stay tuned for that live stream and we'll catch you in the very next utility sports video.

[00:20:10]Hey, hey, hey.