Monday Forecast - Periods Of Tropical Rains Today

[00:00:00]Okay, let's talk about this forecast on uh this Monday across Northwest Florida.

[00:00:05]More periods of unsettled weather. At times, it's going to look like the end of days. At other times, it's going to be fairly sunny across our area.

[00:00:12]Temperatures will climb up into the 80s to near 90°. We'll see a breezy easterly wind over the course of the day as our area of low pressure uh continues to trek to the south and uh move eventually off to the west. Now, for us, I think what we'll end up seeing is we'll see periods of rain and periods of sun.

[00:00:32]Also, pay attention to the beach flags is uh rip current risk is going to be elevated across our area, but it looks like the center of the storm will not move on shore across our area. So, we'll continue to just kind of see some of those secondary type impacts. So, when we look at the development chances likely to become Bertha, hurricane hunters have several flights today that they'll continue to monitor it. uh with our main impacts right now looking to be those periods of rain as well as some rough surf uh maybe some rip current risk things like that here over the next several days. So when we look at our tropical uh system expected to gradually strengthen as it moves to the west. Now there has been more of a westerly shift of the computer models uh indicating that it may not get as close to northwest Florida as what it even looked like 24 36 hours ago. But as it moves that trek to the west, it will bring that moisture swinging around on the right side of the storm system. Now, if you look at it, the bulk of the heaviest rain is on the south side of this storm system, which is good news for us, meaning that the impacts on the north side aren't as high. And you see this with the rainfall forecast. Notice here's where the center is. And as the track moves to the west, look where all the heaviest rain is. It's to the center and south. So, as long as we stay on that right side of the cone, we should avoid the worst of the weather across northwest Florida. That being said, we do have a risk of um of storm surge, 1 to 3 feet across the Appalache Bay. Uh but for the most part, that should be fairly manageable. The intensity forecast with this system, the official forecast from the hurricane center bringing it up to tropical storm status.

[00:02:12]A couple models bring it up close to hurricane or category 1 status, but you see the vast majority of models kind of have it hovering there between a tropical depression and a tropical storm. While the water is very warm and conducive to development, the upper levels of the atmosphere aren't quite as conducive. When we look at the chances of seeing tropical storm force winds, uh we're looking at just 10% chances of seeing tropical storm force winds at the coast. Really no chance inland. The better chance is staying south of our area. So again, as we talked about with that upper level pattern, you see there's our trough of low pressure right there and it's swinging down. Uh eventually what will happen is this ridge of high pressure builds overhead and that's what's going to push the storm system off to the west uh and move it away from northwest Florida this week. Now, we'll still see plenty of moisture around and we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms. So your rain chances will stay elevated, but they won't be as high as today and tomorrow.

[00:03:07]But even with those 90% chances of rainfall, we're talking about periods of rain. We're not talking about all day rain events across our area, the best chances of rain towards the forgotten coast. A little bit lesser amount chances of rain as you make your way off to the west towards Pensacola. So again, we watch this across northwest Florida.

[00:03:26]And you notice how everything just kind of pivots around this area of low pressure as we move through the day on Monday, bringing those periods of rainfall Monday into Monday night.

[00:03:36]There's the center of circulation staying generally south of our area.

[00:03:40]This is our Baron model. And again, you see the spin in the atmosphere. You see the waves of rainfall moving onshore, but it's not going to rain all day Monday or even all day Tuesday. There's just a good chance of tropical downpours at various times. When we look at the rainfall totals, again, heaviest over the forgotten coast, possibly over towards Louisiana, but our area, the Forgotten Coast, could use the rainfall.

[00:04:06]So, if anyone could use 5 in of rain, it's them. The rest of our area, I think, should be fairly manageable, about 1 to 3 in of rainfall. So, your forecast for today, it's still going to be hot and humid despite the fact there's that tropical system to the south. We'll see high temperatures into the 80s and 90s. Feels like temperatures about 100 to maybe 105°. The temperatures may be cooler towards the forgotten coast because of that better chance of rain and a little bit more cloud cover. But again, I'm optimistic most of us will see a fair amount of sunshine on your Monday. Here's that 7-day forecast. Again, high rain chances expected over the next couple of days before those rain chances begin to decrease. We will be watching this carefully and stay a breast of the situation as conditions can change. But as of right now, it looks like primarily an off andon rain event and rough surf along our coast.