Hezbollah not losing war as Israel escalates strikes on Lebanon, analyst says

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Israel is intensifying its strikes on Lebanon despite agreeing to a US brokered ceasefire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his military is now operating with quote large forces on the ground and taking control of strategic areas. It's issued evacuation orders for eight more towns in southern Lebanon in the past hour. Earlier strikes hit Nabatieh and the town of Mashgara where at least 11 people were killed including two children. More than 3,000 people have been killed across Lebanon since March.

[00:00:32]Under my direction and that of the Minister of Defense together with the Chief of Staff, we're intensifying our operations in Lebanon. With large IDF forces on the ground and control over key areas, we are fortifying the security zone to protect the northern communities. At the same time, we're mobilizing a massive national effort to develop creative and innovative solutions against explosive drones.

[00:00:55]Now, Israel says it's expanded its ground operation beyond the so-called yellow line. That's a no-go zone about 10 km north of the border. The yellow line also extends into Mediterranean waters that are rich in energy resources.

[00:01:10]Displacement is also growing. Since Israel ramped up its threats, many people are fleeing places known as Hezbollah strongholds including the southern suburbs of Beirut where they're now living in makeshift camps.

[00:01:23]Now, for more on this, I'm joined by Ali Rizk. He's a security affairs analyst and contributor to Responsible Statecraft. He joins me live in Beirut.

[00:01:33]20% of Lebanon's population is displaced right now. Israel says it has 14% of Lebanese territory and is expanding. So, the question is this very simply, is Hezbollah losing this war?

[00:01:50]No, I don't think you could say Hezbollah's losing this war. In fact, I think one of the reasons why Netanyahu is doing what he's doing is because he's been rather surprised by Hezbollah's performance. I think that many people thought that this time Hezbollah was going to be an easy prey given what happened in 2024 during the 66-day war where the Israelis scored some major successes against Hezbollah.

[00:02:17]But it turned out to be quite surprising this time and I think that's why Netanyahu is being forced to intensify the operation because there's a lot of criticism by the way from northern settlers, from rival politicians. So I think that Netanyahu finds that he has no choice but to do this. Remember that Netanyahu prides himself I think of being the prime minister who was able to score these major successes against Hezbollah which is Israel's traditional nemesis. It was the first Arab force that was able to fight Israel to a standstill in 2006.

[00:02:56]So after what Netanyahu achieved in 2024, those achievements are now in jeopardy and I think that's one of the major driving factors pushing him to escalate.

[00:03:09]Now Ali, the Israel does have a weapon here that is beyond just the war. It's the displacement crisis in Lebanon. Like I say, 20% more than a million people displaced right now. At what point does that become a Lebanese crisis that forces pressure on Hezbollah?

[00:03:28]>> [laughter] >> That is one of the Israeli objectives to make Hezbollah's supporters turn against it. But I don't think that will be successful in any way whatsoever.

[00:03:39]I think that first and foremost it's about security. There was a by the way a recent opinion poll which was held and that opinion poll revealed that 88% of the Shias, Lebanese Shias, do not support the disarmament of Hezbollah.

[00:03:55]So, that goes a long way in telling you where the traditional or where the core supporters of Hezbollah stand. And I think that's actually opposite. The more the Israelis continue with this bombardment without the Lebanese state taking up the role which it should take in protecting or in the taking any action, the more the Lebanese Shias are going to see Hezbollah as their only refuge. And so, I don't think that this if that's the Israeli one of the Israeli objectives, I don't think it's going to succeed. But if it is the way you say it is, then you know, Hezbollah is going to do what it wants to do, what it has to do to survive, uh to try and give the Israelis a run for their money in the south. But this is all going on as negotiations are taking place in DC between the Lebanese government and the Israelis. Now, those negotiations despite the fact that Hezbollah says we the Lebanese government shouldn't be negotiating, those is those negotiations will eventually have an impact on Hezbollah, right?

[00:05:03]Uh they may, but I think that the more important negotiations which we have to keep an eye on are those between Iran and United States.

[00:05:12]Now, Iran has been adamant that any deal must include Lebanon.

[00:05:17]And I think in this particular issue, the United States might give in to that.

[00:05:21]It might say, "Yes, okay, let it include Lebanon." I think that's a small price to pay for the US in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in its in exchange for reaching a broader agreement with Iran. Remember that Hezbollah is not a threat to American interests. Hezbollah is a threat to Israeli expansion, so to speak. So, I think that this might be a bargain which Americans may I emphasize may take up if that means that they will solve the economic issues that means the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices decreasing, addressing all those issues.

[00:06:01]Lebanon is a small price to pay for the Americans and I think by the way that's something which Hezbollah is banking on.

[00:06:08]Hezbollah is banking on that adamant Iranian stance with the Americans and I think that it knows that might be the determining factor more than what happens between the Lebanese and the Israelis.

[00:06:22]Ali Rizk, thank you so much for your thoughts.