Who is Winning Bengal?

本站添加: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Heat.

[00:00:22]Heat.

[00:00:33]Namaste. Welcome to the Charbuk podcast.

[00:00:35]This is your host Koshal Mahara. All right. All the phases of elections are done. Now there's going to be counting on the 4th of uh this month which is going to be a Monday and uh there is uh a lot of back and forth going on especially when it comes to Bengal. uh Axis has refused to give uh any uh prediction for Bengal uh and they have also given a very interesting prediction for Tamil Nad which was also there. I found it very interesting. Um so Tushar has focused on his Substack entirely on Bengal. So what we'll do is we we'll focus more on Bengal. So I'll hand it over to you to be. So first the methodology what were you doing when you're looking at the numbers how were you breaking it down explain that and then go into the details.

[00:01:25]>> So for any single assembly I was considering five six variables. One of it was the SI deletion and now that is the standard accepted analyzing election analyzing tool for West Bengal. Everyone is looking at the deletion. So what that was one two the Muslim population which we map to every single assembly. three the 2019 vote share, 2021 vote share and 2024 vote share and then the candidates and whatever local resonance they have which wasn't that a big factor because it's a mtavanerji versus Narendra Modi election using that methodology giving separate weight to you know different variables giving higher weight to say a 2021 election than a 2024 election and giving a lot of weightage to Muslim population we arrived at a base score for all the 294 seats that is the base score that tells you whether AMC stands against the BJP in certain number of seats. Now this also takes into account the kind of momentum BJP has built over the years from 2019 to 21 to 24.

[00:02:25]Interestingly in 2019 the BJP was almost at the verge of sweeping Bengal. It was doing phenomenally well. But come 2021 they were more realistic or rather they were given a reality check. Then you come to 2024 and that is when they actually impressed a lot of people and this went very under under the radar because on 173 of the 294 seats they actually increased the vote. So combining all of this, combining all the factors, combining the updated electoral rules that were being updated all throughout until February and March, we arrived at the base score for all the assemblies keeping the past trends into account and that is how we got the base course.

[00:03:09]All right. So the S deletion what was the ratio of the S deletion as far as you are concerned >> in 135 of the 294 seats or rather 120 odd seats the SI delions exceed the winning margins of last time now this also includes the seats where the BJP won like I'll give you the example of Kalyani seat the BJP won it by 2,000 votes now there are 20,000 deletions we don't know which party it'll impact more because that assembly had almost equivalent uh you know share of voters on both sides. So that way you have to understand you go to Bhavanipur you'd have 50,000 deletions and that is where Mtab Banerj is contesting from. One factor I think a lot of people must have heard in the mainstream media also was the Chapa vote. Now that is a real thing in West Bengal unfortunately a lot of people have validated that in the public literature. So is sir deletion chapot dead people people who have migrated or people who were actually illegal infiltrators or a combination of the four then there was a news report in the Hindu that 64% of the people who were deleted from SR uh were Hindus now the thing is a lot of people who are illegally infiltrating this country are Hindus on Aadhaar card they are not Hindus otherwise so we have to also take that into account. So SR if you look at it it will be a factor in a lot of speeds especially if you go to the presidency region Kolkata Harra Huggli north 24 paranas I won't say south 24 paranas because BJP of the 30 odd seats there it's not favored to win more than five or six but in the presidency region it is having a huge impact >> all right so now which particular ones do you want to start with which area Do you want to start with by breaking them down?

[00:05:04]>> See, if you look at the seats, you have to understand there are three layers to this entire election. How does the BJP get to 148? All right. Now, if you look at 294 seats, effectively the BJP is not contesting on 294 seats. Effectively, it's contesting on only 200. On 100 odd seats, the Muslim population is more than 30%. 90 to 100 odd seats. MTA Banerjee will sweep 98% of these seats unless of course there is a three-way contest or Congress wins one of those seats or in one seat because of the local candidate the vote gets distributed as it happened in the Delhi assembly elections. So of these 100 seats you on even on her worst day she can start with 80 and I'm being very very conservative here.

[00:05:53]So that leaves us with around 200 seats.

[00:05:56]Now the problem for the BJP is they need to get a strike rate of 75.

[00:06:02]Mavanji even if she hits 80 seats of those 100, she still can go with a strike rate of 30 and win the election.

[00:06:11]So it all boils down to how polarized the Hindu vote is. And I use the word polarized in a non- negative manner.

[00:06:18]It's a it's a good thing if it's getting polarized because if Muslims can vote locktock barrel for one party, why not the Hindus? So that is the first equation. The second equation is that if you're looking at 53 seats within this uh 294 seats, they are too close to call. That is where the BJP and TMC will decide the election.

[00:06:41]53 seats too close to call and I've mentioned this on my substack also.

[00:06:46]The 77 seats that the BJP won, they'll expect themselves to retain it. Then come another 45 seats which I have put on my substract just earlier today.

[00:06:56]These are the seats that are the lowest hanging fruits for the BJP. These are the seats all 45 that the TMC won.

[00:07:03]All right, that is where BJP has to ensure it gets a strike rate of 90%.

[00:07:10]Then that will take its to tally to around 110 odd 110 115 or let's say closer to 115 116. The remaining 30 seats have to come from those 52 close to call seats. 10 of them 10 of those 50 seats the BJP won last time. So let's assume 126 is the final total of those remaining 40 seats. The BJP needs to win at least half to be in the fray. So it's a three-layered election that way. You win what you already won. You win what you did uh you know you shown size of doing well uh in 2024. those seats you need to win those are 45 and then you win the seats that are a tight race.

[00:07:53]Now, can this happen in a race that has high anti-inccumbancy against the TMC?

[00:07:58]High I won't say vote of disgust, but seriously, a lot of people now gravitating towards the BJP. All BJP needs is a 5% vote swing against the TMC. All that needs is 5%. They'll be around 150. If you go to the 2024 election, they just need a 3% swing against the TMC. They will win.

[00:08:22]>> Yeah. But um aren't most seats that BJP banking on winning basically the phase one seats but phase two.

[00:08:30]>> Yes. But you need both the phases to win the election. See phase one seats are anyway this majority of seats which VJP won in 2021. If I give you the map of page two it's almost entirely green. We did not win anything in Kolkata.

[00:08:45]Probably a scattered seat in Havar and Huggli. Not 24 Panas we did not win.

[00:08:51]South Panas we did not win to the second phase when we got in there we actually had nothing.

[00:09:00]>> So that is how you have to understand this. Now if I start with Kuch Bihar region for example let's take it district wise that's that's how everyone does it. So we'll do it district- wise for easy understanding.

[00:09:12]>> The in two it has nine seats. The BJP won seven here.

[00:09:18]So this is a fake catchment area for the BJP. Kuch Bihar you don't have to be too worried about it and even now you can expect the BJP to get eight or nine seats here out of nine if they are supposed to win. You go to Alipur five seats you have to expect the BJP to win all the five seats and they won all the five in 2021 also. You go to Jalpauri another BJP bastion BJP won four of the seven seats. TMC won three but now the BJP is starting as a strong favorite in three as a favorite in two and there are two seats that are too close to call so you know what the BJP is doing in areas like Jelpuri these are the basic catchment regions we were four TMC was three is that is that's what BJP is saying now suddenly because the voter margins are shifting because the rules are being updated that 43 becomes five too close to call becomes two seats and then zero to the AMC that is how this entire election is moving. You move to Kalen Pong which is a rare district in India with only one assembly seat.

[00:10:22]Last time an independent picked it up but the BJP had a respectable vote share. Expect them to pick it up again.

[00:10:28]Duling they swept it in 2021. They'll sweep it again. It's no doubt about that. Uttar Najpur now it just won two seats in 2021 just two. Now this is where the catchment areas get interesting. The BJP starts as a strong favorite in two and yet the TMC starts as a strong favorite still in seven but in five of the nine seats here the BJP improved its vulture in 2024. So you look at a area like Uttar Dachpur you're looking at a very varied variety of seats because there's a demography factor also but you're looking at the BJP gaining at least one or two seats here. You're looking at Karani, Hetabad, Kalya Ganch and Ryan.

[00:11:09]Four seats realistically I would expect the BJP supporters to watch out for Dakshan Dajur both parties secured three seats here and again it's will remain even Stevens but if you are a if you're a BJP supporter Kush Mandi Kumar Ganch Balur Tapan and Harpur these are the seats you need to watch out for. Malda again demography is destiny but I don't think the BJP will do anything better than what they did in 2021. Four seats then four seats now out of the 12. Muridabad 22 now see this is where the TMC's guarant that that guaranteed that 100 seats of the 22 seats here they won 20 last time. Now a lot of people had this question that if Congress picks up seats here, wouldn't that be beneficial to the BJP? If Congress is hitting TMC in an area like Murashabad, then you don't need to worry about the presidency region because there is a higher probability of the Hindu vote going towards the BJP than the Muslim vote going away from the DMC.

[00:12:12]So Muridabad is another region where there won't be much to gain for the BJP.

[00:12:16]At best two can become four but nothing more than that. Then Puri Medipur 16 seats TMC won it TMC won nine of them here. BJP won just uh seven but here all the 16 seats are up for a toss up. All the 16 when I said that there are 53 seats that are too close to call. Puri Maidnipur is a very good example of it because you had seven seats here. Those seven seats you need to win. But then the other nine seats out of the 16 there are suddenly too close to call because of the entire rank incumbency entire improvement in 2024.

[00:12:55]It is becoming very interesting. Another factoid in Maidnipur Puri Maidnipur BJP improved its voter in 15 of the 16 seats in 2024.

[00:13:08]Oh, the BJP is done and dusted in West Bengal and you know they have just abandoned their only opportunity quietly under the radar. The BJP was actually working hard in 2024.

[00:13:21]The one fundamental mistake that every commentator right now is making on television is that they're comparing the election of 2021 with 2026. They think, "Oh, the vote margins are so huge. Where will the BJP's jump come from?" A lot of that jump has already come in 2024.

[00:13:40]So you're looking at midnipur kind of area with 16 seats. The BJP had just seven. Now suddenly they are in game in all 16 because they improved their vote share in 15 of these 16 seats.

[00:13:53]Let's take it to Pashimur.

[00:13:56]The TMC won 13 seats here last time. 13.

[00:13:59]The BJP just two. Now seven seats here are too close to call.

[00:14:05]Seven seats. So BJP is actually in contention in nine of the 15.

[00:14:10]>> When you say too close to call as in what what is the range you're looking at >> of the base score or of the margins?

[00:14:17]What exactly?

[00:14:19]>> Margin.

[00:14:21]margin we're looking at less than 5% what difference and a base score difference of less than five by the way just I've met him thanks thanks now We won two seats. Where will the gain come from? This is where the gain will come from that you have suddenly seven seats that are close fight between the TMC and the BJP. And there are two seats that the BJP has anyway projected to win. The ones they won last time. So two becomes nine plus seven. You go to Jarram. Every seat was won by the TMC.

[00:15:11]Every single seat. And even now they'll I think sweep that part. So that's done and dusted. Pulia nine seats again. All nine are up for contention. The BJP won six last time. They could actually even as high as eight this time. You go to Bangora, you go to Berboom, everywhere the BJP is making it. Nadia, this is where the second phase begins. Nadia, it has 17 seats. BJP won nine out of these 17. Now they're in contention in at least 15 of them.

[00:15:42]15 of them. And they improved their vote share in 16. Take for them to be in contention for 15 of them the voting percentage has to significantly increase in this area. Has that happened?

[00:15:54]>> Yes. Yes. In 2024 I mean simple fact I'm giving you know in 2024 173 of the 294 assemblies saw BJP improving its vote share. In Nadia alone there were 16 seats out of 17 where the BJP exceeded its 2021 vote share. 16 out of 17. So those jumps are coming. I'll give you an example of Bhwanipur just independently.

[00:16:19]People said Bhwanipur because Mabanerjee is fighting from it. The percentage point gap between the BJP and the TMC was 22 in 2021. 22 percentage points. By 2024 it came down to 6 percentage points.

[00:16:36]We have forgotten because 2024 election was a bad dream right for the BJP with the whole charar kind of rhetoric and they were the exuberance around it.

[00:16:46]We've forgotten that they were very >> let's not talk about it. I mean they they were quite invested in West Bengal. PM was heavily invested in West Bengal. You should have seen the number of rallies.

[00:17:02]BJP won four of the 18 seats in 2021.

[00:17:07]There are 11 of the 18 seats where BJP's vote share improved in 2024. It won four in 2021. It improved its vote share in 2024 in 11 of them.

[00:17:21]Okay. Now you go to uh Havra zero seats for the BJP. Okay, zero seats and still there are around 5 to six seats where the BJP will try to make a dent. But Havra will be that place which will give you a lot of toss-up seats if there is a wave election. If it's a close election where the percentage point difference between the two parties is not more than two or three percentage points, it's that close in election, then Havra might not give you more than four or five seats. It anyway gave you four last time, might give you at best six. But if it's a wave election where the percentage point difference between both the parties is say more than four or five percentage points, say Kolkata. Now this is the region everyone is super optimistic about seat seat.

[00:18:19]So now you're looking at the BJP exceeding its voter in all 11 seats in 2024 all 11 of them. It starts as a strong favorite in two seats a favorite in four and three seats remain too close to call. This is right now but the news we're getting from Kolkata is that they will be winning at least six seats. So 6 out of 11 again north 24 paranas a very simple equation if the BJP has to win this election it needs to make significant gains in north paranas and BJP actually might win in the neighborhood of 20 seats upward neighborhood of 20 seats out of the 33 and they won just five last time not 24 election 24 demography is destiny and that is the BJP's destiny. So long long story short, Muslims are 50 to 60% and above BJP chance unless it's a scattered three-way contest. But I admire the >> you're assuming Congress cuts the votes stuff like that, right? And Congress has to cut the vote like 30% Congress 30% but a Muslim voter in Bengal won't easily desert Mtab Banerjee but if they are then expect the Hindu voter to also move you to uh you look to Purba Bardaman 16 seats the BJP won uh sorry 16 seats TMC won all those 16 seats last time there are at least five seats that remain too close to call and the BJP can actually take its tally to six here you go to Pashiman lastly the BJP won just three seats here but of the nine seats it improved its vureer in seven of them so they are again banking of it to hope that they can question analysis localates but in the largest >> but usually experience of following Mumbai politics Muslims always vote one side they never they are very strategic voters one side >> you can you can factor them in for the candidate okay if he has some local resonance like whom Kabir like Padma had this very interesting bite on on NDTV the other day she said I went to the constit assembly where Humayu Kabir is uh you know building this uh Babri Mazjid. So I asked people should a mazjid be built they said absolutely yes.

[00:21:16]Then she asked would you vote for him on this issue? They said no.

[00:21:26]And this quality of Muslims I've always admired. I say this without any disrespect and you know without any sarcasm. They know how to clarity strategic voting and it's their fundamental right. They cannot be demeaned for it. They cannot be guilt tripped for it. They cannot be you know labeled for it.

[00:21:59]winning the 77 seats that you won 45 seats and then there are 50 seats that are too close to call. Now a lot of math has to fall in place. A lot of booth level management has to fall in place for the BJP to get to 150 160. At this point I will also like to make a note about Chanaka survey 190 plus he gives that would mean that every single assembly in West Bengal with a Muslim population of less than 30% has voted for the BJP.

[00:22:33]I don't know if even BJP would accept those figures or not but I don't buy it.

[00:22:38]If it's a that big a wave election then India's biggest pollster shouldn't be on air saying and we don't know Chanaka's methodology as well. So I don't know 190 I can tell you methodology huh we are not we I'm not doing here I'm so we are Assembly% population.

[00:23:26]This is where people miss the electoral arithmetic that there is far more to an assembly than just what the exuberance says. This is where we shouldn't get caught up in the West Bengal election and the BJP also hasn't. They have worked very hard on the ground. If not 24 Panas, Kolkata or Havra do not give the number of seats they should.

[00:23:49]I think that's Goten's thing.

[00:23:54]>> Long story short analysis from my experience again of watching Mumbai and most of India numbers is their Muslims per capita tend to have higher voting percentages than any other community in India. They vote the highest actually even more than Christians Hindu overall Muslims voting.

[00:24:17]Now if there is a voting percent increase last but you also have to because of the S data the S data that volume has gone down so the percent may have gone up as always average percent S impact percent it's all impact percent organic it's mainly 8 or 9 percent jump is purely and purely because of the s so we have to be very clear on that and I have uploaded the math for in all the 294 seats on my substract also seat breakown effectly But you don't have to look at the number isolation. Compare it with the margins of 2021.

[00:25:34]If I'm not wrong, a lot of it has to be chapa vote. It cannot be that 50,000 people or 20,000% of the electors were just you know moving away out of the constituency.

[00:25:50]So Bengali journalist the other thing um Kushel that is probably not being discussed much. First of all, the the point about Chanaki is 190 seats. I think if you ask the staunchest of BJP supporters, they'll tell you that they had 200 serious candidates. I mean, we are not going like BJP did not have they were not winnable. I mean, for a party that's out of power, it's going to be very difficult to field a candidate that is winnable on all the seats. And in some seats, it's arithmetic. some there's local calculations but they theoretically had to so to for them to get about 190 that would mean like getting hitting a 90 95% strike rate in a state where the demographic percentages are not in BJP's favor in every single seat right and then the most important part is is this a lampost election and for people wondering what a lampost election is if there is a purely anti-inccumb against the state government lampost be char on the opposition um symbol they'll win right if that the only way BJP gets 190 plus is it if it indeed was a lampost election and there was a complete wave against Mumab energy >> BJP's ideal number would be about 140 145 or maybe a little bit less and then you know there is independence there are small parties in you know the Gorhaland region and then the in the north Bengal region which will sort help them out and so that's what needs to be seen. Give me one second. I'll be right back.

[00:27:30]>> Example of how how delicate this election is. And again, this is the 45 seats I'm telling you that the BJP has to win. 90% of them they have to win.

[00:27:41]2021 TMC 2021 TMC vote share 44.86%.

[00:27:49]BJP 41.69%.

[00:27:53]percent difference BJP 44% TMC% BJP correct statewide you never know how it converts I'll give you another example nabadep again it had been won by the TMC all these seats were won by the TMC the 45 I'm talking about BJP had a vote share of 39% TMC had a vote share of 48% almost a 9 percentage point gap in 2021 by 2024 BJP reduced it to almost 2 and a half percentage points >> s you go to Krishna Duan BJP and TMC had a 4 percentage point gap in 2021 by 2024 BJP has a four percentage point lead and I told you gosh in the beginning of the podcast if you put a percentage point swing of four on the 2024 comparisons BJP is winning 150 seats and these are the seats that will go first towards the BJP from the TMC that is how arithmetic really works in this election >> so then from what basis has today's channel said 196 supplier They go right now there are there are a few very few exit pollsters and pollsters who are in the business of science polls are science the others want to basically cause a splash right and so today's chanaka because they got that 2014 and 2019 numbers they're like okay let's just cause splash that is one second by the same logic as praep gupta had has given 98 to 120 to TV in Tamil Nadu right A I'll give one such big outlier key. We'll see uh what happens.

[00:29:56]But there is no I mean unless and until everyone missed all trends and I'm you're talking about journalist analyst everyone. 190 190 plus for the BJP is a complete overestimation. And by the way that's the median number right they did a plus or minus 10 or 11. So the outward range of that is like 205 or 206 or something. uh I talked to a couple of my friends and even they were laughing this is even higher than the most optimistic number that BJP is internally giving them >> themselves. So yeah I think it's just basically to create a splash on social media and stuff and uh nothing nothing beyond that.

[00:30:38]>> Can I give you some more mind-boggling maths? I mean I hope I'm not boring everyone but constituency constituency and again first of all disclaimer apologies in advance for any assembly name being pronounced incorrectly we all are still learning on the job there were 30 no I'm going to take you to Kerala right after this tushar so we'll test the pronunciation skills deletions. That's 900% of the victory margin in 2021. 900%.

[00:31:20]>> TMC had a vote share of 44% in 21. BJP had a vote share of 42% less than 2 percentage point gap. But TMC loss uh BJP won uh sorry TMC 1 and the BJP lost.

[00:31:32]Okay.

[00:31:32]>> Correct. Habra 2024 look sabha the BJP had a 10 percentage point lead here the BJP has been slowly converting a lot of seats on the ground >> just that they need to keep sustaining that momentum. Now what has happened between 2024 and 2026 is a lot of political momentum has been recreated by the BJP after the kind of fall they had in June 2024 and the kind of bump that came in Hana, Delhi, Maharashtra and finally in Bihar. I think these 10 percentage point gaps, 5 percentage point gaps still only increase across the assembly.

[00:32:13]That is where I think the BJP can win this election >> and otherwise there is no other way. I think people are underestimating 15 years in power leads to a lot of fatigue right and uh there is who is the number two in trinamul congress that's being debated right right is is it Abhishek banerjee is it someone else is she going to nominate the leader uh another thing to be very interesting interested about like all her number two chapans basically have moved away you saw the whole mulroy fiasco you know the late mulroy was he with muma Start with Mta and then up and down. DH Trii right now is the special envoy of India to Bangladesh. Obviously now closer to this government than he was to Mtaba Banerji.

[00:32:56]At one point of time he replaced her as the railways minister of India. Dhi did.

[00:33:01]So Mumab Banerji also does not have her number 2, three, four and so forth and that is that is causing distress amongst the carders that you know is it just going to be a family enterprise and then the most important thing I think in 2021 BJP wasn't sure who was their leader in Bengal was it Suendu was it Dilip Goss was it Rahul Sina you know there was this collective leadership of they themselves were shocked with the performance that came in 2019 Lok Sabha So they were not prepared for 2021 Vidan Sabha. This time after 2024 Lok Sabha you know there is no doubt in mind that Adhikari is leading the campaign and so they were prepared and um so this is an election of two halves right BJP is extremely strong in phase one and DMZ is extremely strong in phase two and both are expecting a virtually 80 90% strike rate in either of the phases.

[00:33:56]They made sure that their previous sort of gains that they had made across the Bihar Jakhan border in North Bengal those pockets still stay with the BJP and then they are trying to get into the Kolkatas and stuff. I think in 2024 Lok Sabha where they messed up was they tried so hard to get to the other urban sectors and stuff where TMC was strong that they weakened themselves in all the border regions and that's where sort of the loss of seats happened in Bengal.

[00:34:24]My personal opinion is a lot of go ahead go ahead tashad both >> but I think we say that the BJP made a lot of mistakes in 24 I think a lot of a lot of gaps also existed because of the kind of processes that were followed in the state >> only earlier this evening the TMC has gone to the Supreme Court saying that we do not want officers from the central government in the counting centers a constituency voters bogus and this is an Supreme Court mandate process. This is not a BJP process before anyone says >> I mean I I'll give you some numbers for example Kolkata port the 70,000 deletions 70,000 you go to Bhavanipur 50,000 Mapur's 66,000 these are unreal numbers and and overall again West Bengal as a percentage. They are still less than Gujarat, UP and other states.

[00:35:43]But when you start looking at it assembly wise and how they impact the margins, that is when the mind starts boggling.

[00:35:51]So two three points what happened after 2024 is BJP took a realistic overhaul of seat distribution. I think state leaders started having more say >> they this time compared to the last time they did not take TMC turn courts in that number.

[00:36:08]>> Correct.

[00:36:08]>> It was significantly lesser. It was more too I think in Bengal they've started having a ground presence unlike what the Randona on uh uh Twitter is um actually they do have a presence now on the ground as a political outfit >> they have Carter you know they they have push backs they do protests it's it's it's and and I don't know how to say this like I think people have not seen BJP weak right a lot of these young kids have not seen BJP weak So like for people like us, I have to seen BJP very weak in the you know 20 to2 2010 era in Bengal that's the most they got.

[00:36:52]>> Yeah. And and look even Maharashtra like Carter used to struggle boss. I remember in the late 2007 8 D these things take time to develop.

[00:37:18]People have to be realistic that having a political party set up anywhere you know natural carter these things take time for people to feel safe to go to them these things take a lot of time. No, no. And when people talk about blunders, question, sorry, I just had to add this one point and I'm going to sound like an uncle here, but kids go to go on Twitter, look up this account, Sudhindra Kulkarni, and go through his timeline for 30 minutes and then realize he was leading the BJP's campaign in 2009 as Adwani's chief strategist. My point is, this is not to, you know, put Mr. Adwani under the bus.

[00:37:57]My point is he was running a look Sabha campaign and if that is going to be your voice against Manmon Singh it's a shocker that they even got 116 seats and that's why Congress came to power. My point is a lot of people who followed elections after 2014 assumed that BJP was the de facto party of power. There have been a lot of blunders pre204 and 2009 election being the big one telling Mr. Adwani to start his campaign from a gym. I'll never forget that and then then forward. So I mean this is all Mr. Kulkarni. So yeah he was he was even in the PMO in the previous administration but that's uh >> yeah he was everybody knows whose man he was. Anyways, champion it is what it is. Now, if you ask me, I think the probabilities of BJP doing same as last time look highly improbable to me. I think BJP is going to make significant gains simply by the logic I repeat that the vote increase that has happened is significantly from the Hindu side not from the Muslim side based on the rule that Muslims tend to have a high voting percentage in the first place.

[00:39:23]>> So if that is the case I don't see any reason for the Hindu vote going necessarily to TMC. If it does I'll be proven wrong. I think we are looking at a very close contest on the fourth and don't be surprised with the hung assembly or BJP scraping through.

[00:39:37]>> My my nightmare scenario is that BJP doesn't do well in the contest that are too close to goal. It's a separate list of 50 seats I'll put out tomorrow. It'll win the 77 it had retained. Okay, it'll win the 45. I think it'll win most of those 45 seats. Okay, my worry is the 53 seats. Can they get a strike rate of at least 60% there?

[00:40:03]Because that is where this entire election becomes touch and go. You know what my nightmare scenario is? BJP ends up at around late 130s.

[00:40:12]>> Yeah.

[00:40:13]>> TMC ends up at around early 150s then what do you do?

[00:40:18]>> And this can happen. Sure, I'll tell you if they get to 130 because my my and I' I've said this on Twitter that they call me a skeptic right that I fear this is almost a Gujarat 2017 kind of situation where the Congress caught up with BJP but then the urban areas of Ahmedabad and Surat swung to the BJP and changed it this time those areas are Kolkata and the Paraganas right that's where the battle is because BJP is hoping to get at least 15 seats from there I think they can get 120 seats from elsewhere but if they get those 15 to 20 seats then they are within striking distance.

[00:40:52]The question for them is not just that BJP gets 135. They have to ensure that Mata goes below 130 and that can only happen if left in Congress win something. Now left and Congress weird if they get a high percentage in North Bengal that takes away from TMC and helps the BJP. If they get a high percent in South Bengal that takes away from the BJP and helps TMC. So it's a completely cyclical uh sort of situation where Congress operates >> as long as possible you want this to be a two-way contest. You don't want a fractured mandate that you know some >> No, I I agree. But I'm just pointing out the dichotomy in the left congress.

[00:41:29]>> Yeah. Yeah. That I that I agree. But you know from whatever you hear from urban Bengalies, urban Hindu Bengalis or the badloks as they're called, >> they look to gravitates towards the beach because a lot of these people they're well to do in life. they've moved out of the state. Some of them are based across India. Some of them are braced across the world. Now barring the voc part in I mean if they really care about the economy of the state or if they are you know even 1% bothered about how the state is losing to Odisa and Assam its neighbors I think that will weigh on their mind but if you're talking about a population in of the Badruk that still romanticizes the past that is my nightmare because Jalpyuri Dargiling Alipur these are not the areas I'll worry about what worries me is Not 24 paganas, Havra, Huggli and Kolkata.

[00:42:21]>> Yeah, that area that block that's it.

[00:42:24]>> Take >> that is the election.

[00:42:27]>> That is the election.

[00:42:30]>> One more point you told about OIC, right? Another thing that's not discussed is a language issue. So OIC is very fluent in Hindi, Udu, right? So he can campaign in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh and Bihar at a different level than he can in Bengal. he he cannot speak a campaign the same way in Bangla.

[00:42:48]So a lot of this um a IMIM thing is also local um you know campaign based and I think they broke off their alliance with Humay and Kabir right if I'm not mistaken. So my joke was that even OIC said too much that should tell you the situation in Bengal when OIC says It's 50%. It's as good as the TMC.

[00:43:22]>> The wave favors the BJP. The anting incumbency favors the BJP. The updated electoral rules favor the BJP. The Hindu polarization favors the BJP. The only thing that favors the TMC, Hindu vocism, romanticization of the past. Muslim polarization also doesn't favor the P TMC because that's already being factored in on those 100 seats that the BJP will never win. So, the BJP has a lot going for it. the kind of campaign the uh prime minister has had wonderful he's had the macro campaign the micro campaign that Amita has run it was underrated in 24 I really hope that you look back 2 years from now on this campaign and say that damn this was the campaign to study from now before this election everyone dismissed BJP's prospects in West Bengal to great extent assembly fatigue sign.

[00:44:20]You can say Mabanerjee is the you know blue-eyed woman for the for the Bengali population but they are growing tired of her. they are voting her out >> and and the other credit I have to give because Mohammad Mitra and they tried to play the regional card Bengali versus others the Bengali versus Gujarati this the BJP did not take the bait that was very important the language debate never came up because I think they realized that the and by the way the same for BMC Raj Tak tied very hard to play the Marati Gujarat it just they did not take the bait and now Raj Takar is gone They did not even take the name of it was purely and purely a development focused campaign.

[00:45:10]They learned this from last time that do not focus on your individual focus on what you can do for the people and they I think they learned it from 2024 as well. So that way it's a very good campaign. Mathematically look it's a BJP election to lose. This is an election BJP can only lose and by the looks of things it doesn't look that they will lose an election but even then my figures would be upward of 150 south of 160 you know somewhere there I won't go out to say Chan >> yeah no I'm saying if they get below 140 then like like you said it is BJP's election to lose muma it ma did not win it they just did not the kill shot wasn't effective enough but right now it seems Then then it's the Badr then it's a bad election. If we if you know she ends up at 155 160 it's a bad election. They can say I was on a panel with Kchin Gupta and he said you don't know how the Badrlo thinks or how the Badrall votes you know because the Badrlo is always blamed for being vogue and all that stuff. Badrlo has never voiced his opinion. Sorry. The Badrill never says that what's wrong with the state. The Badrilok never says that Odisa is catching up with my state on per capita income. The Badrill is not vocal about their voting preferences or how they want their state's polity to be. What the Badrill says, oh, political violence is a part of our culture. Oh, we are a slowmoving city.

[00:46:40]I come from a slow city. No one likes slow.

[00:46:45]Beyond the point, no one likes slow. I was on panel. this one gentleman uh he he's a journalist he said my daughter a graduate from a top hotel management course in India she went to this one big hotel in Kolkata Royal something Royal Plaza she was offered a salary of 15,000 she takes the same resume to Hyderabad she gets a job of 35,000 strike but I think and I spoke to another person Kushell also knows him he said that people were queuing up for two and two or three hours to cast their cast their vote. paramilitary forces even knows that person he said people were standing there so it helped the the the the weather helped I I what can go wrong BJP doesn't need a huge swing >> it needs only four or 5 percentage point swing 5% 5% only even if 1/4 is still yeah 1/4 or 1/5if of MTA's voters desert her it's endame no if there is anything more than 5% it you are looking at a landslide then because then then it is truly a two-way election then it is because left people don't even know and the congress is already saying largest party some reporter is like district because that is that is how they have become they had one leader who could win by great You you will not believe Kushell Gujarat municipal elections and that was a state BJP Congress contest how to campaign by default just because local people have helped. They didn't even deserve to win five or 10 WS and it makes me sad because as a Gujarati I want a legit opposition party to at least ask questions and they're not even interested in opposing properly is not going to lose after this but my understanding of observing the BJP for the last 20 plus years is that they're very good at course correction and they like winning a lot especially Modi and like winning a lot and now they have empowered a lot of state carders. So I think this is the best shot they have given to Bengali.

[00:50:19]>> It is acknledging.

[00:50:21]>> No no it is acknowledging a fact that Mr. Modi now has been power for 12 years. So he can win you national elections. But then if you have state and national power there will be a fatigue that will be setting in. So you have to find those state leaders who can rise above that fatigue and provide that X factor.

[00:50:38]>> Huh?

[00:50:40]>> No no no. So I was saying if it's Fnavis in Maharashtra and Suendu in West Bengal then they you have to deal with them differently. So we'll see and I'm I'm sure there is going to be a course correction in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh very soon as well.

[00:50:54]BJP on the ground has worked really hard talking to the women explaining the welfare scheme they have and phase one social medal is a border state with huge national security implications.

[00:51:21]Twitter people forget there are security attached to states like Punjab or even Assam for that matter right you are saying freebie is a bad thing sure say to Mavanji who's been doing it for years now you don't why say to the people who are having a per capita income of 6,000 rupees per month in some of West Bengal districts 6,000 rupees I mean it's it's a cruel joke and there is no way to justify cash transfers. I myself hate cash transfers. There should be vouchers and other things but that's a different debate. But there are huge security implications of this state on India's eastern security.

[00:52:09]If this election is won, it will be an Amita election.

[00:52:13]I I I we I think that's something we have to admit the way Amita has been focused his his presence there for the last 15 days. I think today he landed in Ladak and I'm pretty sure he'll be back before the counting day. His presence in West Bengal for 15 days. I think that also sort of motivated the carders confidence that you come out and vote >> on the first phase and the second phase. First phase a lot more because that is the catchment area for the BJP. That is where they have to win you know 80 85 seats. If your people were not coming out to vote, there was no election.

[00:53:07]Phase two maybe as much as it's a low denominator effect one thing I'm glad about is that people at least came out to vote last time Kolkata district average voter turnout s% 60 >> so you know these these are things that are weird totally weird >> and I'm going to I'm going to say to make two predictions Kushal for counting day if BJP goes below 70 in phase one then the election is over if TMC goes below 90 in phase 2 seats. Then the election is over. That is the benchmark for those two parties. BJP has to get 70 plus from their phase one seats. TMC has to get 90 plus from their phase two seats. Only then they have a chance of forming the government.

[00:53:58]It's very simple. Mathematically West Bengal is a very straightforward state because there are two majorities.

[00:54:05]One majority is voting locktock and barrel for the TMC. Again, good for them. Strategic voting. One majority is confused. One majority doesn't know what it wants more. The rotten memories of poverty or the romanticization of the past.

[00:54:26]My Bengal was like this.

[00:54:29]And we say this for Punjab also. We say this for Kerala also that if people have moved out it doesn't mean the state has to stop moving. It has to progress.

[00:54:40]So >> and and it's Kerala is interesting by the way. Kerala may the conundrum with CPI left that BJP has the the left has with BJP and Kerala. If BJP goes above 15% UDF is going to sweep to power. If BJP stays below 10% the LDF has a chance. So but I want to ask you because Kush I have to go in like 10 minutes but I want to ask you guys about Tamil Nadu.

[00:55:03]What do you guys think? Was it smart of BJP to sort of sideways sideline? Did they have a chance or did they see there is no chance? So might as well see if alliance works.

[00:55:17]>> Yeah. With Malina I think he needs to win one election now.

[00:55:23]>> Agreed. Yeah. It's it's like that Apple AR product I've been hearing about but I've never seen a release or like those you know tech products you keep hearing about for years and years and it never comes out and for all his clarity for all his conviction for all his you know very progressive mindset he needs to win somewhere the assembly elections was a good chance why are you not fielding him dri what What if the TV wins? What happens to the primary Dravidian parties then?

[00:55:59]And then if the AIDMK gets around 30 40 seats and Vijay needs those seats, what happens then? We might be looking at a Delhi 2013 like situation just that in this case AIMK is the Congress and DMK is the BJP.

[00:56:14]>> BJP, >> you know the roles have been reversed.

[00:56:17]>> Times now reported before we started recording that there is rumors of a rift between DMK and Congress already. Times now just reported that now I don't know if that >> Congress Congress I don't know something is really wrong with how these regional parties operate. I keep telling Kushal this 131st amendment regional parties they could have taken it to their states and said look we secured a victory against the center they blew that opportunity and Congress led them to that cliff and pushed them from it and now Congress Congress is the liability the prime minister himself said it party or Bihar Bengal now Tamil Nadu what is Congress really bringing to the table for its alliance partners for its main alliance partners. Nothing.

[00:57:05]Akillesh will also dump them.

[00:57:08]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:57:10]>> Everybody will dump them.

[00:57:12]>> At this point, they are just a party of Twitter and YouTube seminars. One one category will never dump them. The GC category activists.

[00:57:25]>> I think they should start a political party.

[00:57:28]>> They did. Now, one of them Dharma party.

[00:57:30]Sorry, I called it dharma. Dharma party.

[00:57:32]>> That's a name.

[00:57:34]>> Dharma party. Yeah, it's a name.

[00:57:36]>> No, I meant like it. Huh? I I Interesting. I I've never even heard of them.

[00:57:42]>> It's It's a good idea. I'm saying if you're a party, Dharma party a assembly contest. It will be unfair to say that you contest an entire state. Okay, you contest in one assembly, you say or in an urban one for that matter, you say we are a party that wants to make a point that no freebies. Let's see what people say.

[00:58:06]Give up campaign LPG subsidy and there are 15 seats in India where if they if they're if they want to really take on the BJP, there are 15 urban seats in India where BJP wins wins 80/20. Okay, Congress doesn't even exist. You can actually try and be see if you if you get even second place and I mean that was the first clue. That lady Anurada Tari if she wants to fight an election tomorrow from an urban constitution is that actually a good idea make win a single assembly make a point that look there are people who are takers for this kind of ideology she won't do it ever people won't do it ever so okay might as well social like to Gandhi Instagram to Instagram.

[00:59:25]He's the captain obvious of Indian politics. Captain obvious. He says the most obvious things and people are like such a profound thing, sir. Oh my god.

[00:59:37]Twitter.

[00:59:40]What a ball. What a shot.

[00:59:47]We should have one for Harsha, Raish and Sunil Gawaskkar. All three have become captain obvious is in the before we go.

[01:00:06]I'm asking all five state >> so I think Assam is the easiest where we all have agreement India Purerry also ND I think twoird majority in both is what I'm saying in Assam and Purucheri >> Kerala Tamil Nadu I haven't followed so I don't want to make a guess at this point >> I think the left wins Kerala in Tamil Nad the DMK >> you're saying the left wins scar.

[01:00:33]Interesting.

[01:00:34]>> Not UDF because everyone is saying UDF.

[01:00:36]Interesting because my my way my prediction was like similar to yours. I think it's a very close fight between LDF and UDF. But it all depends on how bad or well the BJP does. If the BJP gets But I'm also going to predict something. BJP might get three or four MLAs in Kerala.

[01:00:53]>> Hey, any chance we might become the kingmakers in Kerala or no?

[01:00:58]>> I doubt it. But if if that would be very interesting if BJP becomes a king if BJDS the NDA ally if they get a few seats then you know it's possible but I I I I really don't think that'll that'll happen. Um I think it's ultimately UDF might pull through >> in Tamil Nad I have a feeling DMK is going to win.

[01:01:20]>> Oh yeah I I don't see Vijay getting more than 45 seats. I I would be highly personally 15 20% I don't blame them. What does DMK stand for?

[01:01:39]Your best prediction. I predict BJP wins 147 plus minus 14.

[01:01:46]Perfect.

[01:01:50]BJP is winning.

[01:01:51]>> Okay.

[01:01:52]>> TMC is winning. Hung assembly.

[01:01:58]No Bengal may I I am in agreement with Tushar over 100 seats and stuff. The our disagreement is in the 50 seats. I think TMC has an edge to win like those 6040.

[01:02:09]Tushar's I think is 6040 to BJP. So no I think I think BJP might win this one but not like 200.

[01:02:18]>> I hope I'm wrong. Let me put let me put it I hope I'm wrong but this is my numbers. I'm like regardless I don't think so don't expect right 45 and 53 but my nightmare is 130 my wishful which I hope it ends at is 150 160 but >> 130 is where my nightmare scenario is which I hope doesn't happen if it has to happen it'll be 150 160 >> mhm >> BJPAS are very confident of winning Bengal by the way >> no they should be because of the campaign they read but but the 120 130 would be because that would sort of kill the dream for a lot of things and West Bengal may the party in power then has a lot of power to do a lot of other things in post pole and that is the sort of the fear that people have and officers will turn. So it's we'll have to see then. Yeah.

[01:03:31]>> Yeah. Let's see. Question is Diamond Harbor getting repoldled? I don't know.

[01:03:36]>> Some boots were some boots were getting repled but that's like 15 boots in total. So 15,000 electors not a big amount.

[01:03:42]>> Will operation come happen if no 135? Yes.

[01:03:49]>> 135.

[01:03:51]No, no, no. 130.

[01:03:56]>> It depends how that's what I'm saying.

[01:03:58]It depends on what TMC ends up at. If they are at 135 TMC, >> if if see if operation Kamill has to happen, it has to happen at at least 145 plus. It can't happen at 135 plus. If BJP is getting lost at if BJP is getting stuck at 130 odd, it means the presidency area has been lost.

[01:04:36]Bengali BJP will win West Bengal surely in 2031 if not 26. Let's see.

[01:04:44]>> Bro, that's what we said in 2021.

[01:04:46]>> Yes. Uh does India need a swatra party to keep BJP honest?

[01:04:53]I don't know state election.

[01:04:57]No, that's a good idea. But where would the southern party start from? Right.

[01:05:02]And who would be the leader of that party?

[01:05:07]If if it were to happen, it can only happen after Mr. Modi is not in power.

[01:05:12]Till Mr. Modi is there, the chances of that happening are very less. post Mr. Modi yes there is a chance that could happen >> oh prediction I think in another 15 years BJP this this can't sustain itself yeah >> this this what is happening because India big coalition it has to crack and I think them and the Congress will come together the cast of the BJP in the Congress And this is my my understanding because society correct 14 Congress was acceptable in states or 2016 it's a laughable option in most states.

[01:06:05]>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean so I I was giving the example of 2017 in Gujarat the Congress without any campaign was 10 seats away from actually resting that state two and a half years after Mr. Modi was elected they were just 10 seats away. I don't think people understand how close that election was and Gujarat would have been gone. So that's how close the Congress got and then they completely screwed up after like I think post 2018. So it's uh you know and then we've seen the terminal decline then for 8 years.

[01:06:40]>> That is that is you make a very good point Adit. You know you said that the Congress screwed up after that. This is where BJP gives me hope for Bengal because they did not screw up after 2021. They in fact bettered themselves.

[01:06:53]They won 77 seats and then >> in two and a half times the number of those seats.

[01:06:59]>> Yeah.

[01:07:00]>> They improved their vote share. They kept fighting. Conversion eventually in a state like Bengal or even in a state like say uh a difficult state like Bihar doesn't happen overnight.

[01:07:11]>> Correct. But the kind of conversion they had in 2015 versus what they had in 2025 in Bihar and the kind of conversion they'll have in 2021 West Bengal even the worst case scenario for the BJP right now looks like a 1201 130. So that in itself tells a lot of things but because they're so invested in that victory color factor but that is where the BJP differs from Congress they built on failures.

[01:07:34]>> Yeah. And that 120 is not seen as a surprise. Oho they have gone above and beyond. Now it's seen as expectation and that's the difference between the 2021 and this election.

[01:07:45]>> Yeah. Let's see. See, we'll we'll be back here at 700 p.m. Monday. I don't know if Tushar can join us at that time.

[01:07:59]I don't know.

[01:08:16]When they have to leave early Hey, but what we'll do is we'll WhatsApp Tushar and get his live reactions and read them on air. If he can't come, he'll send his reactions.

[01:08:43]My my reactions will be all over Twitter that day. Don't worry.

[01:08:47]>> I'm just kidding.

[01:08:49]I I tell you something. I'll tell you something. I have met so many people who are not that politically invested in routine. you know they don't care 131st UC you know delimitation policy but everyone is invested in the West Bengal election for some reason on a lighter note amid can tell his son that beta IPL no one cares about Bengal election people still care about so in that fight the father >> my fans don't care about this IPL >> no no I mean Gujarat does but ultimate you By the way, this is what the gambling stoppage has done that it has killed the IPL from the day-to-day thing. That is one critique that I do have. The government does need to rethink that dream was so immature.

[01:09:51]So anyway, so I'll call you same as always.

[01:10:07]So I'll meet you there.

[01:10:09]I think okay guys go follow Adid. Go follow Tushar uh on X and uh if you want BJP to win Bengal go buy my book.

[01:10:43]Anyways, we we will wrap up.

[01:10:46]Substacks are there in the description.

[01:10:49]I will see you guys next time. Until then, take care guys. Bye-bye.