LIVE: ENTIRE Gulf Coast On Alert As NEW Tropical Depression Forms And Is Likely To Strengthen

[00:00:12]Good night.

[00:00:38]Good day to all of you. I am Denilo Evangelista and welcome to today's tropical weather live stream for July 19th, 2026.

[00:00:49]Uh welcome in on a Sunday morning. Hope hope all of you guys are having a great Sunday so far. Uh and we are watching the tropics closely as things uh have taken a turn. I should say things have quite significantly uh rapidly uh uptrended in the last few hours I should say. Uh we went from invest 91L being designated yesterday to it having a solid chance of development to today tropical depression 2 has [clears throat] formed in the Gulf. And it really just goes to show just how quickly sometimes things are able to get their act together in the Gulf. And I think there is a pretty good reason to believe that tropical depression 2 could be of a potential uh sizable concern for the Gulf Coast for this upcoming week.

[00:01:40]Uh we are in the very least going to get a name storm out of this uh system.

[00:01:46]probably at in the very least I should say I believe maybe a moderate end tropical storm 45 50 mph but I'd say the potential is there that we could see something stronger than that maybe even a hurricane for the Gulf Coast uh sometime later this week. Uh I'm not sure how much stronger than that. And I know that there's some models that are kind of going wild in the possibilities with this storm. Uh, and I'll show you, you know, not just with all the models, but especially with some of the ensembles of certain models are really going crazy and showing some interesting solutions. I kind of doubt that, but I do think that things could get interesting here for the Gulf Coast uh for the next few days. And I and I said I do believe that uh you know, especially when we talked about 91 yesterday, I said that there is a potential for a surprise for the Gulf this weekend. And it looks like that surprise is coming to fruition. So we have our hands very full today. So I hope you guys are uh you know comfortable you know seat seated uh and hopefully you have your seat belts on because we are about to go for quite a ride on today's discussion. And if you enjoyed what you see today, I really appreciate if you will subscribe to the channel and turn on the notification bell because we are going to have a lot for you in the coming days with whatever shapes up here with tropical depression too. And also make sure to follow me on Twitter as well and I will uh show you my Twitter page later on. So if you want to follow me there, you'll know where to look. So, with that being said, long intro aside, uh let's get started today uh by taking a look at the National Hurricane Center. Right now, we have tropical depression 2 in the Gulf of Mexico or America. I there I mean they both are we're both talking about the same, you know, body of ocean here. So, I think you guys all know what I mean, but I'll go with Gulf of Mexico. All right, that's what I'm going to call it from now on. Still, the Gulf of Mexico.

[00:03:53]Uh, and you know, some people will be mad. Why call why not just call it the Gulf of America? It's just it's just really confusing for me, especially as a tropical tracker in which I've always known the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of Mexico for my entire time of tracking for several years now. Probably at least since I believe 2017 is when I started tracking um the tropics. And I've known it as the Gulf of Mexico for my entire time. So, it's kind of hard for me to get used to the idea of calling it Gulf of America. And it's not for any political reasons or anything like that.

[00:04:26]It's just it's kind of hard for me to, you know, come up with get adjusted to a new name, especially when I've known something as something else for such a long time. But that being aside, tropical depression 2 here in the Gulf of Mexico, maximum sustained winds right now are 30 mph. Minimum central pressure of 1,11 millibars located at 28.0 north and 85.3 west. And this is stalled pretty much. It's it's moving at 2 miles per hour, but it is nearly stalled right now. Um, and you know how how the deal is with these stalled systems. there almost always is a headache uh in the track uh you know a lot of uncertainty is it gonna go this way is it gonna go that way that's just the deal that's just kind of how the deal is many of the times when we are dealing with a stalled system and that kind of segus into one of the first points I want to talk about today and that is there will be lots of uncertainty and there still is quite a bit of uncertainty right now with the track of of the depression And that really is a headache especially because depending on where this track will change its landfall location and its potential for uh intensity, you know, so there's a lot of uncertainties here and I'm going to try to break them down as much as I possibly can today, but just keep that in mind. probably the overarching theme is multiple different scenarios and in general we're just going to have to keep an eye out on things very closely here um over the next several days. Uh, and let's start there. By the way, actually, let's actually start off by taking a look at the track of tropical depression 2 right now. And you could see first kind of the first impression I'm pretty sure a lot of you have. Uh, well, that is a quite large track. And yes, it is quite a large track, a cone of uncert or a cone of uncertainty as I should say. Uh the official National Hurricane Center forecast track is that this will move on off to the northwest and then eventually bend off to the west here. Uh so more than likely right now in the very least we are probably looking at a Louisiana landfall from the depression here. But the biggest uncertainty is when will the bend towards a straight westerly motion happen? Will it happen more towards the north? And because of that, we end up getting a landfall closer towards eastern Louisiana and Mississippi or does this system immediately move on off to the west uh and potentially miss just to the south of Louisiana. Uh and that puts areas as far west as Texas at play.

[00:07:11]And and the cone of uncertainty stretches all the way from uh western Florida here to southern Texas. So pretty much the entire GF coast is is in the cone of uncertainty and uh I think this is a good time to highlight the cone of uncertainty means the all the potential area in which we could see the track of this storm not uh you know the the cone representing where the impacts will be. The impacts are completely separate. Uh, and talking about impacts, we have tropical storm watches up in effect already for western Florida.

[00:07:45][clears throat] And I'll show you uh where the watches are up in effect for in just a moment. But I do want to remind you again once again, the cone of uncertainty represents the uncertainty of the track, not the uh coverage uh and expansiveness of the impacts like the wind uh and things like that. So keep that in mind here when you look at this um track and especially if you are along the Texas coast here and again stretching anywhere from southern Texas all the way to western Florida uh you are in the cone of uncertainty. So you should be watching things very closely here with how tropical depression 2 um evolves. And I think that is the first point is the well besides the fact that there's a lot of uncertainty the next point after that is anywhere from Texas even southern Texas all the way up till western Florida should watch and prepare and keep in mind the possibility that you might you might see a direct landfall in your area. But especially um with where exactly this will track, then that'll also start to affect other things like rainfall and just how bad the impacts will be for you and potential intensity. So there's a lot of things uh to keep in mind here and I'll again break break it down uh as we go go on throughout the live discussion here.

[00:09:14]Uh and don't worry, I'm I'm I'm going to try to cover everything as I as much as I possibly can. Um, and might take a little bit of a while. We might be here for at least an hour or so, but you know what? That is what I am here for. Uh, but as I mentioned before, uh, tropical storm watches are in effect. Uh, so let's go over that really quickly. The summaries of the watches and warnings in effect from, uh, Oo Lo Canói River to the Florida Alabama border. I'm going to try to work on my pronunciation here of some of these uh towns, especially in northwestern Florida, which seemingly have kind of indigenous roots. And admittedly, sometimes those names are kind of hard to pronounce. But, uh, if you are in this town here or near this area all the way to the Florida Alabama border, you are in a tropical storm watch right now.

[00:10:11]So that is something uh to keep in mind as you are already uh under the risk uh for impacts.

[00:10:22]So with that being said, let's take a look at how tropical depression 2 is looking like right now. And definitely is an interesting looking system. Uh first of all, what I do want to point out is that it does already have quite a decent uh you know structure here. You can almost already see uh these kind of curling bands beginning to develop. Uh and that's probably the most interesting aspect of this storm for me right now is the fact that the structure and the groundwork is already uh laid out even though uh convection is kind of anemic right now. Uh and you kind of have spotty convection here. Uh and this is still dealing with dry air which definitely entrained into the system a little bit this morning. And when I first woke up and you know admittedly I kind of looked at this and thought maybe will this develop, maybe this won't. But then a few hours later the National Hurricane Center designated this. So that erased any sort of uncertainty as to whether or not we would actually get development from this. immediately I knew uh we are dealing with a developing storm here. Uh but either way with even though we don't have very aggressive convection right now, we definitely have a solid uh low-level structure and in fact taking a look at the 850 mibar vorticity map from uh University of Wisconsin website. I love using this map and uh you can see why the structure here of uh tropical depression too.

[00:11:57]Well, you have that round circular look that you that you typically look for when it comes to vorticity. Definitely the look of a developing uh tropical system. Uh and that definitely looks like a system that is already well organized in the low levels. So, uh, I guess the fact that this has pretty decent convection even though it's kind of anemic right now and definitely a good low-level structure. Well, already two major checkpoints needed for uh tropical cyclone classification. So, so we got it and we now because of that already have uh tropical depression uh to here. And taking a look at its current environmental conditions right now. Uh even though we have dry air, windshare is definitely not a problem with it, which is probably why its structure was kind of able to uh maintain itself and hold together quite well. But windshare right now is in in the Gulf is pretty low. Uh especially right over the top of uh tropical depression 2 here. Wind shear values as low as 5 to 10 knots. So absolutely low enough indeed for tropical cyclone development to occur. And of course uh we got it. Uh and interestingly enough right now throughout the entire uh Gulf right now wind shear is definitely on the lower side um as well. So wind shear at least for the next uh few hours here to at least the next day or two will not be an issue. And then beyond that, it gets a little bit tricky and it'll really depend on how well tropical depression 2 is able to consolidate with the low wind shear it has right now. And of course the very very warm sea surface temperatures, which is something that I've been talking about for at least a week now, probably since the beginning of this week. Uh I've been talking about just how warm sea surface temperatures are here in the northern Gulf. And right now with the anomalies uh they are still are for the most part at least a degree Celsius above normal. Uh and that how that's reflected in the actual sea surface temperatures here. Well, pretty much throughout the entire northern Gulf, we have sea surface temperature readings at least 29 to 30 uh degrees C with even some pockets of 31° C. So low wind shear, very warm SSTs automatically too. very positive signals um for development uh of tropical depression too. Uh and that's why I said that I do believe that we're going to get a surprise here and you we definitely cannot rule out development in the Gulf this weekend because of those very warm sea surface temperatures and well definitely played a role into getting quick development of the depression that we are now tracking uh this morning. So uh how are all these things going to come together over the next few days? With that being said, let's switch on over to the models here.

[00:14:56]And this is when things really uh start to get tricky. So, starting off here with the European ensembles. And this was really kind of the surprise, the first surprise in my opinion uh of this morning uh and that is the European ensembles are definitely much more aggressive I as you could see uh than the last few days. And it's quite interesting because the operational models as in the nonAI models were interestingly enough always much less aggressive on development uh of you know what is now tropical depression 2 than the AI models were. But now looks like all the models are starting to latch on today.

[00:15:38]Uh and the European ensembles here uh pretty decent spread. And this is kind of the other overall overall, you know, overarching theme of how things are looking like with tropical depression 2 right now. You first have an envelope here on the north side of ensembles that are generally weaker uh and obviously still developed this storm because well it has developed now. But the ensembles here that more or less move towards the uh northeastern and north central Gulf Coast. So anywhere from eastern Louisiana to Florida, you could definitely see that most of those ensembles are on the weaker side and you know don't get the storm as strong as for instance the ensembles here that especially um move tropical depression 2 more towards the west and towards the south uh and completely avoid Louisiana. In fact, some of the ensembles here are so strong uh if you can look closely here, we literally see some ensembles of the European showing uh pressure in the 930.

[00:16:45]So, we even have a handful of major hurricane ensembles here uh in the northwestern Gulf. Uh and that is quite interesting. Do I think that that's going to happen? Probably not. Uh but I do think it definitely tells us um uh you know a story or it gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be. So we kind of have that idea down. Let's see if it carries on uh throughout the rest of the models. The FNV3 uh the Google AI ensembles also aggressive this morning and showing uh quite a strong aggressive solution again especially with the ensembles here. that stay to the south of Louisiana and then the uh you know more northerly ensembles uh stay that stay more north and go into eastern Louisiana or the northern Gulf Coast end up uh much weaker. Uh, and then the European AI ensembles. Um, I mean definitely a lot of them do develop, but interestingly enough, uh, I guess you can't I guess you could say that they're not necessarily as aggressive as both the European and the Google AI ensembles are, especially with the more westerly and southerntherly uh, solutions. But I but honestly if you look here and if you really want to kind of um pick out the pattern still the ensembles that are stronger are more towards the south and the west as well.

[00:18:12]So that seems to be another theme is the more tropical depression 2 moves on off to the north here uh and more towards the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the less likely it is going to be strong uh and the more likely it is just going to be a weak storm. uh and probably, you know, not be too much of a headache compared to the ensembles here that more or less move on off to the west straight away and and end up getting into the central and western Gulf. Well, it'll have much more time over water. So much more time to intensify and of course much and of course because of that much more time over of course the very very warm sea surface temperatures that we have here throughout the entirety of the northern Gulf. Uh and of course there's another aspect too which I'll talk about um in just a moment too especially as it relates to windshar which will obviously have an impact on the intensity of the storm as well. So, uh, now let's go go go to the actual regular models to kind of break thing break things down. Starting off with the GFS here. Uh, and you can see what the GFS does. Uh, definitely is more uh, leaning towards the northerly weaker solution here. And you can see uh, this storm definitely develops. Uh I mean it it is already once again developed but the GFS kind of keeps us on a more northerly uh northwesterly trajectory uh and pretty much throughout the entire time here this uh tropical depression too remains weak uh and almost pretty much begins to fizzle out uh as it approaches the Gulf Coast uh you know near Louisiana and Mississippi and then once it moves inland it just completely um dissipates.

[00:20:08]although or you know probably the main structure dissipates but we'll probably still have rainfall from whatever happens here and that's also another impact that I'll go over in just a little bit the rainfall but uh you can see uh you know going back to the ensembles here uh again the two ideas represented the more northerly solutions are weaker uh and of course that idea is being reflected here on the GFS so it's kind of nice to see how all the models kind of you know converge on certain ideas if you if you understand what I'm saying the European as well uh the operational European also kind of showing that although I guess it's a little bit stronger than the GFS so maybe the GFS is kind of overdoing things maybe with shear or something like that. Uh but the European um also uh you know with the northerly solution showing a a weaker storm than the model that I'm about to show you in a little bit, but I guess still uh slightly stronger than the GFS. So I guess maybe there's a little bit of a difference between the models in terms of environmental factors. So let's actually take a look at that really quickly here.

[00:21:22]Let's switch to the 200 mibar wind. Um and you can see why uh whatever does develop and moves to the moves on a more northerly trajectory here uh dissipates especially as it gets towards the north central Gulf Coast because if you look at the wind shear at least on the GFS right near the Gulf Coast we start seeing a lot stronger wind shear uh with of course a much weaker system. So anything that does run into the windshare will more than likely dissipate and struggle um much quicker.

[00:21:54]obviously resulting in a much weaker outcome. And then the European uh also shows that solution. Although uh as I expected uh and seemingly, you know, kind of obvious between looking at the two models here, the European obviously shows less wind shear. Still not as optimal because we're still kind of dealing with a strong overall uh you know, wind movement coming out of the northeast. So that's still northerly shear over the storm. So, kind of keeping a lid on overall potential intensity. And at most, this would probably yield us a moderate uh tropical storm before once again moving onshore in either eastern Louisiana or uh Mississippi here. And then that moves on off uh and probably is inland by the time we get to Wednesday.

[00:22:46]comparing that to the AI model uh the European AI which we which we'll use as an example here and you can see immediately uh we have a very different solution uh the European AI uh develops tropical depression 2 and consolidates it much quicker and because of that it ends up moving to the south and instead of moving towards the central Gulf Coast and east eastern Louisiana. It ends up going to the south of Louisiana. Maybe it clips the far southern portion here of Louisiana, but it ends up moving on off to the south and eventually kind of you well it does move on off to the south and then moves on a straight westerly direction with eventually a kind of slight southwesterly bend. and the European AI model ends up taking ends up taking this uh straight into uh southern Texas uh versus the GFS in the Euro which brought this into the central uh Gulf Coast here and then immediately had it move inland by the time we got to Wednesday. And most importantly, the European AI definitely has a stronger solution here.

[00:23:58]Let's see how strong of a storm it shows. Uh roughly 997 millibars. So that's definitely a stronger resolution uh than what the European and and definitely the GFS had. Uh but given the resolution of the European AI since [clears throat] it is a slightly lower resolution model, uh I would not be surprised if this is actually the European AI showing, you know, near hurricane intensity uh by this time. But it goes back to the idea here that I outlined before. uh a more weaker storm takes a more northerly direction and ends up moving towards the central Gulf Coast while a stronger storm moves on a more westerly trajectory uh and ends up moving towards uh the western Gulf. So you could already see those two scenarios uh you know playing out in all the models and that's definitely something that we will have to keep an eye out uh here over the next few days and I think it starts with seeing uh just how much consolidation we're going to see of tropical depression too within the next day or so. Are we going to start seeing a lot more deep convection which will you know kind of centralize uh the you know structure here? Because as I said before tropical depression 2 already has um a pretty decent structure uh and definitely one that you know uh how do I explain it? First of all, you can kind of already see an S shape if you you know really know how to look and if you're really creative. If you kind of draw uh you know an S uh through the structure of Tropical Depression 2 here, it definitely looks like a pretty decent S shape already. Um and so that again tells me that we already have a decent structure with this storm. Uh and definitely if we're able to get a lot of deep convection and and this storm is able to fight off the dry air that's to the north of it. um especially if that happens tomorrow when we reach the next uh dural maximum you know ocean cycle uh you know that's dural maximum if you're not sure what that means that's typically uh during the time of day in which we see the most aggressive uh convection that is able to blow up uh on the ocean uh and that typically happens around overnight into the early morning hours uh you know as the sun is rising. Um, and so if we're able to get a lot of deep convection to fire off, especially, you know, near the center or over over top the center of tropical depression 2 here by the time we get to tomorrow morning. Uh, that could definitely help position this storm um in a much better position in which we could see the stronger solutions. uh verify here where we end up seeing um you know a more westerly track and because of that maybe uh this has a this has a higher ceiling and maybe this might potentially be a hurricane especially for the western Gulf Coast and Texas and Louisiana, western Louisiana specifically. So everyone needs to watch again if you are along the northern Gulf Coast and uh let's show you here how the upper level winds look like. Uh and you could see definitely a much more favorable look here uh for tropical depression too as we get towards the western Gulf Coast.

[00:27:31]Uh I mean there is a little bit of a northerly shear uh component. There will be strong shear on the northerly side of this system, but because it's on a more southerntherly trajectory, uh I guess it it kind of avoids the strongest shear.

[00:27:46]Uh and then eventually here as it gets towards the western Gulf, uh that definitely looks like a pretty decent outflow pattern that develops on the 200 mibar wind. Definitely quite a bit of uh good outflow on the southern side uh developing here and definitely overall the wind shear is much lower and therefore much favorable for more intensification. So, all of the possibilities here that we will have to watch out and it's it's going to be a long few days ahead of tracking here uh in the Gulf. And once again, as I said at the beginning of the video, taking a look at all the possibilities here by looking at the ensembles, all of the ensembles, and of course, looking at the National Hurricane Center official forecast track. Again, anywhere from southern Texas all the way to western Florida and Mississippi and Alabama need to be watching this depression here very closely uh and preparing for the idea that you might get a a direct impact uh in your area. Even if you won't, still prepare for the idea and still watch uh watch watch the tropics very closely here over the next several days. Um, but something else that I do want to highlight and this map too is definitely going to change especially depending on where the exact track uh and intensity of uh tropical depression 2 uh will be and of course where it will where it will go. But the rainfall is also going to be an issue as well. And taking a look at the next seven days here, the expected rainfall already for Florida is going to be pretty high. some areas expected to see at least up to five, maybe even half a foot of rain and even stretching as well throughout the entire Gulf Coast, at least stretching into Louisiana for now. But of course, especially if we see a different track in this and tropical depression 2 here moves on off more to the west and to the south and ends up threatening Texas, you bet that these rainfall totals are definitely going to shift dramatically uh and probably include lots of Texas um as well. And uh I mean that's especially important to watch for given the fact that you know Texas has dealt with uh some flash flooding and some you know flood events uh over the past few weeks here. So I'd imagine especially if you are in Texas uh you should be watching the progress of tropical depression too here uh very closely um over the next few days. And of course I bring this up because as I always say, I do not want to diminish the impact of rainfall uh that we will that we could possibly see because rainfall is always the number one impact that people uh are most caught off guard by. And statistically rainfall and flooding tends to be the number one killer when it comes to tropical cyclones. And I've said that before and I will continue to repeat that. So rainfall totals as well we will be monitoring very closely here over the next few days and definitely expect rainfall probably for the entire GF coast even if you don't get any impacts uh from tropical depression too what will and I should say what will very likely be Bertha within the next day or so at most um but of course especially the highest rainfall totals will definitely change and will definitely be um very much uh you know impacted by whatever track does end up happening and of course the intensity too um of tropical depression too. Um all right so I found this tweet very interesting and again kind of fits into the overall idea here of things that were that we will very uh very much need to watch here with the trends with uh tropical depression too. But Andy Hazelton uh posted this graph when we were still at 91L. So this is a little bit outdated, but I mean is it really? This is only from uh 10:00. Uh so only from 2 and 1/2 hours ago. But Andy Hazelton does say um 91L is further south and he's talking about the uh halves B model. Um and he says that 91L further south and west than the operational halves shows a possible hurricane threat to the Texas coast. Although the system is still battling some shear. So the shear again is going to be a very big part of the equation as to what exactly will happen.

[00:32:20]Uh but he does say of course use this with c caution since it's not an operational model and of course always refer to the NHC4 official forecast and I think anyone with half a brain knows to exactly do that but um interesting you know thing that he does mention uh 91 further south and west uh potential hurricane threat to the Texas coast. And again, looking back at the ensembles here and even going back to what the European AI forecasts, I think that follows pretty well in line with the, you know, possibilities that I have outlined today. Especially if we see a more uh again a more south and west track with tropical depression, too. Maybe that'll open the door for maybe a stronger storm uh in the western Gulf and especially for Texas and Louisiana if we do see a track um towards that area. So, lots to keep in mind here over the next few days and I'm pretty sure a lot of you are going to have questions or comments or concerns. Um, so with that being said, since we are now, uh, you know, there and I guess we've kind of gone over all the main points uh, that I wanted to go over today so far, I'm now going to open up the chat board to you.

[00:33:44]If you have any questions or comments or concerns, leave them in the chat board below. I'll be reading any questions or comments you have right now. And if you want me to bring up a model that I've not brought up so far or if you have any questions about potential impacts to your area, ask away right now. I'll be looking at the chat board. But I will tell you, please keep it civil. Please do not ask me any weird any weird things or anything that might be too suspicious. And if it is really, you know, questionable, I will take, you know, I'm going to have to put my foot down. So please keep in mind uh keep in mind about that. But other than that, ask away or comment away. I'll be reading and I'll be watching the chat here.

[00:34:29]So let's see. Will it become Bertha?

[00:34:33]Well, it probably will be. Uh I mean the National Hurricane Center track officially uh has uh tropical depression 2 strengthening into a tropical storm.

[00:34:44]Let's actually see what the intensity forecast is so far. 60 mph is the current intensity forecast. And I'm pretty sure that this will probably change quite a bit over the next few days here.

[00:34:59]Um uh and of course we'll see adjustments to maybe something higher or something lower. Again, it all depends on what the track um of this depression will be.

[00:35:14]I'm in New Orleans. Should I be concerned? Yes, you should be. I wouldn't say concerned is the right word, but you absolutely should be watching things very closely here over the next few days. I mean, the current National Hurricane Center track uh takes this right into eastern Louisiana and uh New Orleans is definitely right near the kind of uh consensus of the center of the track here. So right now you are definitely within the cone of uncertainty um for the potential track. And if you are anywhere in the cone of uncertainty once again, you absolutely should be watching very closely and preparing once again for the idea that you might get a direct landfall. So yes, you should be watching things very closely if you are in New Orleans. And very likely uh I wouldn't be surprised if you get tropical storm watches or warnings issued to you. uh not long from now, maybe in a few hours from now or definitely by tomorrow, I see some watches and warnings being issued for the eastern Louisiana, central Gulf Coast area, probably including New Orleans. So, yes, New Orleans is at risk.

[00:36:35]All right, let's see.

[00:36:39]It's possible it could also be a major hurricane in the Texas, Louisiana area.

[00:36:45]I don't rule out that the models from the ensemble show a category 5 hurricane. I would not go that far.

[00:36:54]Um, and I wouldn't even go as far to say that we will have a major hurricane uh from, you know, this depression here.

[00:37:03]But a hurricane is definitely possible.

[00:37:06]I would not rule out the chance of a hurricane, especially if this tracks towards the western uh Gulf. And going back to the ensembles here, uh once again, it'll definitely hinge upon whether or not we get a more uh you know, westerly and southerntherly track.

[00:37:22]Now, I know what you're talking about.

[00:37:23]You're talking about these European ensembles here uh some of which show a pressure uh in the 930s and I guess you could assume that that's probably a moderate and cat 4 in the very least but I'm not necessarily sure that we will get something that strong.

[00:37:41]Maybe I could be eating my words. I have no idea. Um but uh you know again it's really going to depend on how things develop right now. But in the very least, given the, you know, aggressiveness of some of these ensembles, especially towards, again, the western Gulf Coast, I would not be surprised if um we do see a hurricane out of this system. I I think a hurricane is definitely on the table. Uh and I think probably a more reasonable solution would be with what the Google AI ensembles have right now. uh they don't really have this you know becoming a major but you do see some ensembles here 60 knots even some shadings of 70 knots. So, high-end tropical storm, low-end hurricane category 1, uh maybe moderate to high-end category 1, you know, best case scenario for it.

[00:38:34]Obviously, worst case scenario for, you know, us as humans. Uh, but not sure about major hurricane, but definitely a hurricane is a possibility. Uh, and definitely not a low chance as well.

[00:38:57]Um, and I would show all the other hurricane models like the hurricane specific models like the Hworth and the Hmon, but I don't think they've loaded yet specifically uh for Tropical Depression 2 because they were up for when we had Invest 91L and especially yesterday uh a lot of the hurricane models were showing a hurricane from 91L, especially the Hmon and the Hworth, they really were aggressive on this storm. And given the trends that we're seeing today with the models, maybe they were on to something.

[00:39:29]But, uh, unfortunately, I can't show the hurricane models right now. Or maybe I can. Let's let's let's look. Nah. Uh, tropical depression 2 still not on the hurricane models uh list right now. So, uh, fortunately, we don't have the hurricane data, uh, just yet, but of course, when it is, uh, available and when the hurricane models start running specifically for tropical depression too, I'll definitely post them online and I'll and I'll definitely post it to Twitter. And actually with that being said, if you want to follow me for updates, especially throughout the day, uh, and you know, probably much more consistent updates, uh, make sure to follow me on Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it if you haven't already done so, Danilo Evangelista. Uh, we're at 712 followers right now. We've been going up in followers over the last few days. So, thank you to all of those who have followed me. And if you are a follower from Twitter and you're seeing me on YouTube, um you know, glad to have you along. Glad to have you along supporting both of my uh channels here.

[00:40:41]So, uh big thanks to all of you. Uh and if you are right now watching on YouTube and you're not yet followed or you're not yet following me on Twitter, go ahead and do so. Again, Danilo Evangelista and I will be posting a lot of things. I'll be posting whenever I do videos or live streams and I'll also be posting updates on whenever we get new updates from the National Hurricane Center, reposting people like Andy Hazelton.

[00:41:09]So definitely doing a lot of things here on Twitter, so please make sure to follow me there if you haven't already done so.

[00:41:18]Um, I don't see a lot of questions or comments here. So, if you guys don't have any questions, I will wrap this up um in a little bit, but definitely a very interesting storm uh that we will be monitoring. And I should say this does go to show that even though we are in an El Nino this year, um you know, lots of talk about El Nino, uh you know, shutting down hurricane season and the fact that we're going to have more than likely a below normal hurricane season this year. That does not prevent systems like what we are seeing with tropical depression 2 right now from coming out of the woodwork uh and pulling a surprise and still bringing some impacts uh to to land even though the overall season is going to be below normal does not stop individual storms from still being impact impactful. So uh keep in mind once again every time we have an El Nino does not you know even if we have a below normal season that does not guarantee no impacts and you know no need to worry about the tropics because obviously uh we we are uh we you know we have a threat on our hands here over the next few days and we are right now in a El Nino in fact a very strong one. So definitely another point to be proven you know with that as well.

[00:43:01]All right.

[00:43:04]A tropical storm warning, a tropical storm watch, and coastal flooding may be issued for the northern coastal area with severe weather bulletins may also be issued.

[00:43:13]Um, yes, we're probably going to get all of those things over the next few days as we uh find out more about the potential impacts here uh from tropical depression, too. And again, as I said before, we already have tropical storm watches in effect right now for uh the western uh Florida peninsula coastline.

[00:43:34]Uh and that's probably going to get extended further west into Mississippi, Alabama, and probably eastern Louisiana and of course uh New Orleans like uh somebody asked about earlier. So definitely have quite a bit of uh impacts uh and things to talk about from the watches and warnings standpoint coming uh over the next few days. And of course I mean especially because we're going to be talking about a landfall here. So uh yes, all those things are coming. All right. So, uh, since there don't since there don't seem to be many more questions, uh, being aimed my way right now, I think I'm going to wrap it up here. I'll stay on for a minute longer, but if not, uh, you know, I'm probably going to wrap things up. Again, if you have any questions or comments, you know, comment on YouTube below or if you are if you want to keep on keep monitoring things throughout the day, uh, you know, follow me on Twitter once again. And of course, I should say, uh, if you want to follow things on your own merit and, you know, you want you don't want to be relying on me, go to the National Hurricane Center website, nhc.noah.gov.

[00:44:50]Um, it is free. Fully free. I promise you this website is fully free. It's paid for with our tax dollars. Um so utilize it. Utilize what your taxes pay for, you know. Uh and of course Tropical Tidbits as well. If you want to follow the models or follow the satellite images uh here, Tropical Tidbits as well, which I should say, by the way, is run and operated by Dr. Levi Cowan who uh you know does his own tropical updates on YouTube and Twitter and he's more knowledgeable than me. So if you want a more knowledgeable perspective although I think I'm pretty knowledgeable but if you want a more knowledge knowledgeable perspective and someone who can really break it down very well make sure to follow Levi Cowan as well. Giving giving a shout out to him because he does quite a bunch of incredible things as well. So make sure make sure to follow him as well.

[00:45:43]What is the name of the tropical system in the western Pacific? I am not really on top of the Pacific right now, especially the Western Pacific, but I will get back to you on that.

[00:45:56]And when when do we know when a category 2 hurricane will develop in the Pacific?

[00:46:01]I have no idea, but I do know that a few new depressions have formed in the Eastern Pacific today uh and probably more coming um over the next week or so.

[00:46:11]So, I guess we have a chance there at seeing a category 2 uh in the Pacific.

[00:46:16]All right, with that being said, I hope you guys all enjoy the rest of your day.

[00:46:22]Again, I will have more updates throughout the day. I'm probably going to post a video update uh very shortly after this. Um and then I'll probably have another update later in the evening. And of course, we will go over all the new watches and warnings and all the new models that will come out. So, make sure to stay tuned. Uh, and if you want to stay tuned and you haven't already done so, please make sure to follow me uh on Twitter, subscribe to me on YouTube, and turn on the notification bell so you can get videos and everything the moment I upload them.

[00:46:54]Thanks for watching. Enjoy the rest of your day. Stay safe. Peace, love, and kindness to you all. And I will definitely talk with you guys again very soon.