Geopolitical events, such as the Iran-US conflict, can significantly impact market sentiment and trading behavior, causing defensive positioning among investors as demonstrated by the Nifty's gap down opening and increased hedging activity when tensions escalate.
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White House: Trump to Set Iran War Timeline as Brent Holds at $103 - 23rd April Opening BellAdded:
Good morning and welcome to Axis Direct Opening Bell. A quick pre-market briefing with key global cues, overnight trends, [music] and market moving insights to keep you ahead.
We'll start with the global markets.
Overnight in the US, markets moved higher with the S&P 500 up 1.05% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gaining 1.64% as strong earnings lifted sentiment and pushed the Nasdaq to a fresh intraday record. The Dow Jones also advanced 0.69%.
Asian markets opened higher tracking overnight gains on Wall Street after President Donald Trump's extension of the Iran ceasefire buoyed investor sentiment. Japan's Nikkei 225 hit an all-time intraday high supported by strong gains in tech stocks. However, it later gave up early momentum to trade 0.48% lower. Australia's ASX 200 traded choppy and was up 0.32% in early hours. In India, Nifty settled at 24,378 yesterday down 199 points, whereas Bank Nifty closed at 57,124 down 247 points. Nifty opened with a gap down dragged by weakness in the IT space with the IT index falling nearly 3.9% after a sharp decline in HCL Tech following its results. However, broader markets showed resilience with mid-cap and small-cap indices outperforming the benchmark. Technically, Nifty formed an inside day candle and protected Tuesday's session low indicating a pause or a breather after the recent sharp rally. The index is currently hovering near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February to March decline.
Gift Nifty indicates a gap down opening of 180 points with the index opening below previous two sessions low placed at 24,355.
The immediate support is placed at 24,225 where 50 EMA is positioned. A break below this level could extend profit booking towards 24,000.
On the higher side, the previous two sessions low around 24,355 is now likely to act as a resistance level.
If the market manages to reclaim and sustain above this zone, we could see an upside move extending towards 24,500.
Overall, the market is consolidating at higher levels and the next directional move will depend on the development of the US-Iran conflict. Geopolitics acted as the ultimate wild card yesterday.
President Trump's Iran ceasefire extension failed to offset the defensive drag from the US naval blockade. Foreign outflows hit 2,078 crore rupees swelling MTD losses to 42,326 crore rupees.
Nifty futures signal short build-up with open interest rising 2.3% while premiums compressed to three.
Bank Nifty futures saw long unwinding with open interest declining by 1.4% while premiums surged to 23.
India VIX spiked to 18.73 before settling at 18.30, a 4.4% gain signaling panic protection.
PC ratio stumbled to 1.02 for Nifty and 0.99 for Bank Nifty.
With a two-to-one call to put skew, traders clearly opted for call writing and put hedging. Institutional data confirms the pain. FIIs liquidated futures and added puts holding a 0.28 ratio while proprietary desks aggressively hedged. Meanwhile, retail clients remain trapped having added futures and calls. The rupee plunged 32 paise to 93.48 pressured by dollar strength and crude import demand near $94.
For today's session, maintain a defensive posture.
The Nifty is likely to oscillate between strong support at 23,950 and resistance at 24,800 with institutional exhaustion dictating the downside direction.
Sectorally, Nifty chemicals rose 1% while Nifty IT fell 3.9%.
In F&O, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency gained 9.2% while HCL Technologies dropped 10.7%.
On commodities, gold prices edged higher by 0.55% to $4,744 and silver on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran supporting cautious optimism over a prolonged de-escalation in the Middle East. Copper futures rebounded above $6 per pound recovering from the previous sessions losses as restocking activity in China accelerated ahead of the Labor Day holiday period. WTI crude oil prices surged more than 2% on Wednesday after Iran reportedly attacked three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz escalating tensions in the key maritime corridor and raising fresh concerns over the outlook for future peace negotiations.
That's it for today. Please note that this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please refer to our website for the full disclaimer.
Thank you and see you in the next episode.
Investments and securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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