Sun and Storms Sunday Forecast

[00:00:00]Okay, let's talk about what's going to be happening here on this Sunday across the Panhandle. Another unsettled day, but far from a washout. Temperatures will climb up into the 80s and 90s across our region. It just depends on the timing of the showers and thunderstorms as to exactly how warm you end up getting. Now, we are going to be paying attention. Hurricane Hunters are going to invest Invest 91L and we'll be watching that over the coming days.

[00:00:26]Today we'll see primarily an east to northeasterly flow across our area, but again a lot depends upon what happens if we see any development down there into the Gulf. Now, as we look over into the Gulf, we have again a medium chance of development over the next 7 days primarily as we head into that Monday-Tuesday timeframe. Spaghetti models at least have drifted this thing towards the north, but there's plenty of models that actually take this thing off to the west. Some don't develop it. Most of them say very little development, tropical depression, possibly a weak tropical storm. Uh so, we'll watch it, but I think in the end it's going to be a rain event for us. And not every day is even going to be a complete washout.

[00:01:07]We have this unsettled pattern because in the upper levels of the atmosphere we have this trough of low pressure. And so, while a good chunk of the day will be dry, when the storms pop, they're going to really pop. And much like we saw on Saturday, some stronger storms.

[00:01:20]Now, this trough, and I think Bertha, Invest 91L, whatever, ends up kind of hanging around through Tuesday, and then this ridge kind of shuts everything off, and things should begin to quiet down across the northern Gulf Coast. We'll start to see rain chances return closer to average for this time of year, but today, and especially Monday and Tuesday, those rain chances could be elevated, but even so, it's not going to rain all day on those days. Just when it does, it's going to be pretty active.

[00:01:50]So, when we look at our rainfall chances today, they're actually a tick lower than what they were yesterday. And you'll see when I show you the computer models, there'll be a little bit of a difference where we'll see on the her model, it pushes a lot of the thunderstorm activity more towards Pensacola and a lot of our area kind of avoid some of those showers and thunderstorms. Now, our Baron model shows the showers and storms again kind of pivoting around but again also kind of a focus more towards Pensacola. But then we see again this rotation of these showers and thunderstorms around our area of low pressure which is located right down here and you see how it spins south of Pensacola. But notice it never really develops a ton of precipitation across our area. So, we'll continue to watch this over the coming days but again, uh, you know, whether we see development or not, I think it's going to be more of a rain event. And when you talk about rainfall totals, the potential's there especially towards the Forgotten Coast for a good amount of rainfall. But again, there'll be pockets that see very little rainfall across our region. This is not a well-organized system. But we'll know more tonight as we uh, look at all the data from the Hurricane Hunters. For today, high temperatures still hot, way up into the 90s for a lot of us, 80s for the beaches but those feels like temperatures could be as high as 100 to 105°.

[00:03:08]So, keep that in mind. And again, just be aware that those showers and thunderstorms will move west uh, east to west and north to south. So, they're not going to come from the usual direction.

[00:03:18]So, much like yesterday, just be aware of that if you're going to be out and about with the boat, things like that, uh, watch out for those showers and thunderstorms. And again, those rainfall chances are going to stay elevated here over the next few days before we see those rain chances begin to decrease some later in the week.