A Stormy End To The Heat

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:05]Good morning. Welcome to the forecast discussion for Wednesday, May 20th, 2026. Of course, I'm your meteorologist, Steven DeMartino, CDM number nine. Well, we've certainly had a hot and humid and uncomfortable week with temperatures in some cases breaking records, high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, but all of that is coming to an end and in a big way. We're talking about a 30° drop between high temperatures today and high temperatures tomorrow, and in some cases almost a 50° drop from high temperatures that we've seen the past couple of days to what we're expecting for the Memorial Day weekend. We're talking about 50s. 50s for highs.

[00:00:50]That's impressive.

[00:00:51]First, let's talk about where we're at right now.

[00:00:54]We have a trough hanging around the region that actually sparked off a few thunderstorms yesterday afternoon. Has a chance to produce an isolated thunderstorm here or there ahead of the main cold front between now and 3:00 p.m. But for the most part, we just have scattered cloud cover to clear skies.

[00:01:10]Temperatures are rising through the lower to mid 70s over the northern interior, mid to upper 70s on the I-95 corridor, uh and also down to our southern New Jersey. In fact, we just broke 80° in central New Jersey, and on Long Island temperatures range from the mid 60s towards the east end of Long Island to the mid 70s on western Long Island. So, we certainly have influence from the Atlantic Ocean. That's going to be a factor in terms of our showers and thunderstorms later on this afternoon and evening.

[00:01:43]And we also have increasing instability here on the Delaware River Valley and on the I-95 corridor. So, everything's kind of setting up. And as you can see on our weather tap radar and surface map, cold front is well off to the west. Not much in the way of our trough interacting or supporting any thunderstorms right now.

[00:02:00]As you can see, it is pretty clear out there. But, as this cold front approaches, we'll start to see showers and thunderstorms begin to just spark up as our temperatures rise rapidly into the 80s and 90s once again.

[00:02:16]On the infrared satellite picture, you could see the cold front that is approaching the region. We also have this interesting upper-level low here.

[00:02:23]Not a direct impact, but it's actually going to enhance sinking air through this afternoon around central New Jersey back through Philadelphia.

[00:02:33]That can actually push our high temperatures even higher towards the say 97 98°. It's going to be something that we're going to be watching very carefully as all of these factors begin to evolve and interact. So, we're seeing all of this play out.

[00:02:48]And while that happens, you're going to get this trough here that's going to dive towards the Canadian Maritimes. And that sets up a warm front that stalls out just in time for the weekend leading to waves of showers. So, very, very complicated, interesting weather pattern. Not exactly the best weather pattern for outdoor activities, though.

[00:03:09]If you have plans for the Memorial Day weekend, you have your two best days is Friday and Memorial Day Monday. And on that Monday, it's not exactly going to be sunshiny. That's for sure. It's going to be variable clouds, but less threats of showers at the very least. So, really want to kind of shoot for Friday for your best conditions. Now, let me jump on to the HRR. This is at 3:00 p.m. You can start to see some of these showers and thunderstorms developing, dropping towards the region. And you can see some of these thunderstorms look like they're going to pack quite a punch. The type of severe thunderstorm, if we see any, it's going to be pretty isolated. It's going to be via what we call downburst wind gusts, straight-line winds where those wind gusts could push over 55 mph and small hail. Nothing tornadic or anything is expected at this time.

[00:03:59]But certainly these thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing some very heavy downpours and frequent vivid lightning, which is typical of an environment where we have a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. So hot humid weather pattern, impressive polar air mass on the way, and then followed by that a Canadian air mass. So let's dive into this forecast. For today, temperatures rising rapidly out ahead of this cold front with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 80s in higher elevations, the Poconos and Catskills. The upper 80s to lower 90s over the northern interior, we're talking about northwestern New Jersey, Hudson Highlands, northern Connecticut, and also on on Long Island. Lower to mid 80s, I should say upper 80s to lower 90s on Long Island. Then on the I-95 corridor, we're talking about Philadelphia, New York City, Newark, Trenton, central New Jersey, down towards Atlantic City, we're looking at temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 90s. We'll watch to see a little bit of subsidence play a key role around the Philadelphia metro.

[00:05:02]Then this afternoon through this evening, the cold front slowly drops through with showers and thunderstorms.

[00:05:09]That cold front basically stalls out by tomorrow morning with waves of showers and some embedded thunderstorms, some heavier downpours with low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s over the northern interior, mid to upper 50s along the coast. So we said goodbye to the heat, hello to the rain. And by tomorrow afternoon, that rain will be dropping southward, and you're going to see the rain lingering over central and southern New Jersey as this cold front sinks southward. Basically, you'll see clearing from north to south as that front drops southward, and then a much cooler day. We're going looking at high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s on the I-95 corridor and the immediate coast, but mid-to-upper 60s over the northern interior. Why warmer over, let's say, the Poconos?

[00:06:00]Because we're going to have clearing skies faster, so more sunshine, so we drop up to 65, 67, maybe even 68, while the immediate coast stays cool and raw with temperatures around 60.

[00:06:14]On Thursday night into Friday morning, high pressure builds in with clear skies. Low temperatures arrange from the mid-to-upper 40s over the northern interior, upper 40s to lower 50s in your suburbs, lower to mid-50s in your urban areas. Much cooler, and by the afternoon, scattered cloud cover can be expected with high temperatures only in the lower to mid-60s on the immediate coast, mid-60s everywhere else. So, if you have any plans for this weekend, I'd probably pull them off on Friday, because this is when you're going to have the most sunshine.

[00:06:48]Then we get to Friday night into Saturday morning, and you're going to see this warm front attempt to move northward, but basically run into this roadblock that is a Canadian Maritime high pressure system. So, what you get is this easterly wind, waves of showers, overcast skies, drizzle, just raw, wet weather conditions, with low temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 40s over the northern interior, upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast. High temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the northern interior, mid-to-upper 50s along the coast. Again, just a couple days ago, we're talking about mid-to-upper 90s, so you're talking about a 40, in some cases maybe even a 50-degree drop in high temperatures over the next 48 hours.

[00:07:33]That's pretty impressive.

[00:07:35]Then we get to Sunday.

[00:07:38]Front stalled out. There's that influence. See how how you're going to get this kind of ridge here with this high pressure system. Our frontal boundary is stalled out. Easterly wind, waves of showers, drizzle, overcast cloud cover, just raw weather conditions. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40s over the northern interior, lower to mid 50s along the coast. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout the entire region. So again, good time to head to the movies or have a movie at home, but certainly not for the pool. That is for sure.

[00:08:12]Uh on Monday, Memorial Day Monday, everyone's off. Everyone can most likely stay indoors with variable to overcast cloud cover, a few isolated showers. So if you are focusing on grilling, you'll pull it off just fine. I'd probably just have everyone sit inside rather than go [snorts] outside and try to have a hot dog with with a passing shower. But a little bit better than the complete, you know, widespread showers that expected for Saturday and Sunday. Look for low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.

[00:08:42]High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s. Then we get to Tuesday, of course, as we head back to work. A little bit better, scattered cloud cover, a few isolated showers here and there. Look for low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s over the interior and immediate coast on Long Island, mid to upper 70s on the I-95 corridor.

[00:09:06]And on Wednesday, scattered cloud cover is expected with an isolated shower via this trough that's going to be hanging around as somewhat of a cold front. Look for low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s over the northern interior, upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s over the northern interior, upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast.

[00:09:31]That is your forecast discussion for today. Have a wonderful day and as always, stay safe out there.