Caste Breakdown Reveals Key Battleground in Tamil Nadu Exit Polls | Today's Chanakya | India Today

追加: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]Today's Chanakya is emphasizing on major casts.

[00:00:03]>> I was just y >> which way it is going while access my India PRI is focusing on demographic. They are looking at educated unemployed students, housewives, homemakers, um maids, houseps, all those distin distinctions are you got the direction right Maria?

[00:00:21]Both both are seeming to suggest that TVK is going to do a lot better than anticipated by other >> ports. Yes. So even those reporters who went on the ground they are of the opinion that they are doing better than most 25 30% is even something that Axida has been saying for the last few weeks.

[00:00:37]So I'm I'm saying that that is a sample size that we do not have that we do not have that kind of a sample you know as journalists we speak to a handful of people but we get the direction here the point that has been made by uh today's chanaka is that the TV is actually getting lesser number of Christian votes than DMK DMK is at nearly 50%.

[00:01:00]>> Yeah Christian votes and TV has just is at 34%. And when we look at another important category which is of the SC vote DMK is at 43%, TVK is at 34%. So I'm looking at these two and while there has been the larger broad stroke of looking at categorization which is different in case of access my India here the approach is more traditional keeping in mind how casts work. No. So I'll tell you a couple of points here.

[00:01:28]You know, just looking at the surface level and not really diving deep because we've just got the data as far as scheduled cast goes. The fact that DMK has managed to hold on there at 43%. It means that the TVK at 34% has eaten yes but not as much into the DMK's allies as expected. Largely the suggestion all through was that TVK would do well in North Tamadu at the cost of the VCK and so would eat into the Dalith Wshare.

[00:01:52]What you're also seeing perhaps perhaps looking at the data I don't really have the breakdown but when AIADMK is said 19% my sense is also that the Arundi votes and the likes in the Kongu bell which is in seats like Ainashi that may have shifted over to the DMK which is what's helping them to stick to 43%. You know what's the commonality here Maria since we're talking about cast between what axis my India has put out and today's chanaka is that minorities haven't completely swayed away from the DMK. This is something that Pradep Gupta also referred to Christian vote that Christian. So I'm very curious to know exactly how TV and Pradhib Gupta has spoken about how TV has done well in southern Tamil Nadu without really managing to full-on capture the Christian vote. So that's an interesting aspect. I think when we see the breakdown we'll be able to perhaps look into greater detail. But this is another poll that seeming to suggest that TVK is doing well particularly if you see the TVK doing best in the scheduled cost.

[00:02:49]That's the DMK's war >> when we looking at the wayization because if it is a wave election in favor of TVK which is essentially saying that the Suman Sri Raman is joining us he continues to be with us Suman Sri Raman when we look at the cast breakdown and particularly the Christian vote which is very much with the DMK we were expecting that it'll be completely switching away or perhaps moving away from DMK Okay, that's not happening.

[00:03:19]They are still getting 50% of the Christian vote.

[00:03:23]>> Look, look, if the Christian vote is moving away from the DMK, even partially, it affects the DMK, but not hugely because the DMK, the Christian votes decide hardly 20 25 constituencies in Tamil Nadu. If the Dalith vote goes away from the DMK, it makes a massive impact because today who who are the vote base of the DMK, it's the Dalits.

[00:03:54]It's the minorities. Minorities constitute 14% of Tamil Nadu. They are a huge vote bank for the DMK. Now you've got to understand that if these people are being wooed by Vijay and are shifting, it makes no sense whatsoever to say that the DMK's vote share is so high. How does it make sense? Second, if the I don't know what cast today's Chanaka break up the today's Chanaka has given. I don't know if you have seen Praep Gupta's numbers. He says 7% of vaners were interviewed in the poll or he is saying maybe 7% of the one population of the state. Both are incorrect because that should not have been done. The one constitute a minimum of 12 to 13% in the state. 9% of those interviewed were Brahmin. Brahmans are 3%.

[00:04:49]None of this makes sense. Why is it nobody's mul to 2%. No, no. One second.

[00:04:53]Praep Gupta's clarified on that that percentage that's written in that column which led to a lot of questions about whether he's referring to the percentage of population. He said, "No, that's a percentage that I've sampled. That's a sampling size." But