BREAKING: Bertha 2026 – Surge Warning Upgraded | Causeway May Flood

[00:00:00]stationary 40 miles per hour. Bertha is just sitting there over the Gulf. She is not moving, not weakening, just spinning and soaking up warm water. And that is exactly why mobile Beloxy Gulf Shores and Pensacola are in serious trouble. At minute 4, I will tell you the exact hour storm surge begins pushing into your neighborhood. By minute 8, I reveal the danger already killing people on the Gulf right now. Stay with me to the end.

[00:00:23]I have one piece of genuine good news. I promise. Real good news, not me trying to soften the blow. something that will actually help you sleep. Here is what makes Bertha different from every other tropical system we have seen this season. A fast storm hits and leaves.

[00:00:37]The surge rushes in and pulls back within a few hours. Bertha is not doing that. She is drifting so slowly she will push surge ashore twice. Twice on two separate high tides Wednesday morning and then again Thursday morning. That means areas that drain Tuesday night will flood again before sunrise Wednesday. NWS Mobile specifically warned that rush hour Wednesday could be underwater on the causeway. This is not a forecast anymore. Tropical storm warnings are already posted and in effect right now. This is real. This is happening. And the window to act is closing fast tonight. Let me show you how surge will hammer the coast.

[00:01:10]Starting with the raw numbers from the Mississippi Alabama border to the Alabama Florida border, 2 to 4 ft of surge. Southern Mobile Bay, 2 to 4 feet of ocean water pushing over normally dry ground. Northern Mobile Bay, one to three feet. Even inside the bay, no one is safe. From the Alabama, Florida border east toward destined one to two feet of inundation. Now, here is the location that has me most worried. Lower Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. Port Sulfur Empire, Venice. Those communities sit at sea level with nothing between them and the Gulf. 2 to 4 feet of surge.

[00:01:43]There is not an inconvenience. That is a life-threatening event. And across the Mississippi Sound from Gulfport to Slidell, 1 to 3 ft above ground level.

[00:01:51]Now picture something. Two feet of water sounds manageable. Let me tell you what it does. 2 feet of surge water enters your home at floor level and ruins everything it touches. Baseboards, furniture, electrical panels, appliances. 2 feet of surge destroys everything it touches. And when Bertha does it twice, cleanup becomes 2 weeks, not two days. Do you live within a mile of the coast, a bay, or a tidal creek tonight? If you have never looked at a surge map, tonight is the night to look.

[00:02:17]Go to weather.gov right now and search for your address. Do not guess. Know your risk tonight. Now, let me walk you through the timing hour by hour. This is what matters. Tuesday afternoon today, the outer rainbands of Bertha are already brushing the northwest Florida coast. Tropical storm force winds arrive northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, possibly as early as noon. For coastal Alabama, tropical storm winds are expected by late Tuesday evening tonight. By midnight Tuesday, gusts along Doofan Island and Fort Morgan could reach 45 milesPH. Wednesday morning between 6:00 and 10:00 a.m. is when the first surge peaks along coastal Alabama. This is the window and WS Mobile fears most rush hour driving directly into surge water. Wednesday afternoon, conditions improve slightly, but do not be fooled. Bertha is not gone. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the second surge cycle hits as tides peak again. Some neighborhoods near the coast will see water come back in overnight while they sleep. Minor coastal flooding lingers through Thursday afternoon before the Gulf finally settles down. That is the timing promise I made at minute 4. Lock those hours in right now. Now about the boats.

[00:03:23]This one is urgent and it cannot wait until morning. Offshore waters from Pensacola to Pasigula are now under tropical storm warning for mariners.

[00:03:31]Seas 10 to 15 ft, gust to 50 knots.

[00:03:33]Those conditions capsize and destroy vessels. If anyone you know has a boat still in Mobile Bay right now, call them immediately. NWS is not suggesting they find safe harbor. They are telling them remain in port. Period. Now I need to talk about the hazard that is already active and already dangerous tonight.

[00:03:51]This is the minute 8 promise. What I am about to tell you is happening right now. Rip currents high risk confirmed by the National Weather Service. Already in the water tonight every single Gulf Coast beach from Doofen Island to Navar Beach to Pensacola Beach is dangerous.

[00:04:06]Not will be dangerous is dangerous right now as you are watching this video. This surf forecast should make every family cancel every beach plan for the entire week. Breakers of 8 to 11 ft Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. That is surf that kills. Picture the wave crashing on you in waist deep water as tall as your ceiling. Rip currents from a tropical system are not like normal rip currents. They do not let go. They are wider, faster, and more powerful than anything you have felt at the beach before. If you have grandchildren visiting this week, then keep them off every Gulf Beach until Friday. Now, let me step back and show you what else is happening across America tonight.

[00:04:41]because Bertha is the headliner, but she is not performing alone on this stage tonight. Tornadoes touchdown in Wisconsin while you have been watching this. Three confirmed touchdowns.

[00:04:50]Stormchasers caught one on video near Tigerton, Shawano County, another near Black River Falls. And then there is the heat emergency quietly killing people across the Deep South. Heat index values of 115 degrees in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Mississippi. 115° that is not air temperature. That is what your body actually feels. Add that heat index. A healthy adult can develop heat stroke in less than 30 minutes outdoors.

[00:05:15]For someone over 70, for someone on blood pressure medication, it can happen in half that time. Here is something the official bulletins never say directly, but I am going to say it plainly. Heat kills alone. Heat kills quietly. Heat kills the neighbors we forget to check on. Tonight, within two blocks of you, someone sits at home with no air conditioning. They will not call for help. They do not want to be a burden.

[00:05:35]Go knock. A text is not enough. A phone call is not enough. go in person before tomorrow afternoon. Now, I want to show you something about these rivers in Texas that is genuinely alarming tonight. The Nuis River near Asherton sits at 30.3 ft and is still rising right now. The previous flood record for that river was set in 1959. We are approaching it. The Frio River at Tilden is forecast to crest at 27.9 ft by early Wednesday morning. Homes flooding, roads washing out, livestock stranded. This is happening in South Texas right now.

[00:06:07]Flash flood warnings also hammered De Moine, Ames and Ankeny, Iowa earlier tonight. 2 to 4 ines in Iowa, 1 in hail in West De Moines, 70 mph gusts in Illinois. This is one of the most active single weather nights across America I have seen in years. In the middle of all of this, I want to say something directly to you watching tonight. I am not telling you this to frighten you. I am telling you this to equip you. Fear paralyzes, wisdom prepares, and right now you have the wisdom. Use it.

[00:06:34]Proverbs 22:3, the prudent see danger and take refuge. This is exactly that moment. God gave us the ability to read warnings and respond. You are reading one right now. Respond. Let me give you exactly what to do tonight based on where you live. Starting now. If you are on the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Northwest Florida, here is your plan.

[00:06:53]Action one, move everything you value off the ground floor of any structure near the water tonight. Not tomorrow morning, not tomorrow afternoon. Right now before you go to sleep, move it upstairs. Action two. If an evacuation order covers your area, you need to leave before Tuesday midnight. Once tropical storm force winds arrive, emergency crews cannot safely get to you if something goes wrong. Do not wait for water to come in before you decide to leave. That is too late. Action three.

[00:07:18]Charge every single device in your home right now. Phones, tablets, backup batteries. Power outages are forecast across Mobile County, Baldwin County, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If a family member depends on refrigerated medication, plan tonight for where to keep it cold. If you use medical equipment that runs on electricity, call your power company right now tonight.

[00:07:37]Ask to be registered as a critical care customer. They prioritize restoring power to your home first. Secure everything outdoors before you sleep.

[00:07:45]Patio chairs at 30 mph become dangerous projectiles. If you are in the heat emergency zone from Texas to Kentucky, here is your priority. Stay indoors between 10 in the morning and 7 at night. That is the 8-hour danger window.

[00:07:57]If your air conditioning fails today, find your nearest cooling center before the heat gets you. Texas residents, dial 211 right now to find a cooling center near your address. It is free. Drink water before you feel thirsty. If thirst hits you, you are already behind on hydration. Know the difference. Heat exhaustion you treat at home. Heat stroke is a 911 call. Heat stroke confusion, no sweating, hot red skin, rapid pulse. That is 911 now. Heat exhaustion, heavy sweating, weakness, cool, clammy skin. and get that person inside and cool down fast. Never leave children or pets in a vehicle. Car interiors hit lethal temperatures in under 10 minutes. Now, let me deliver the good news I promised, and I genuinely mean it. Based on Bertha's current track, tropical storm force winds will stay confined near the coastline. If you live 20 m or more inland, Bertha's wind threat is not your primary concern tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Bertha is not intensifying dramatically. This is not Katrina. This is not Ivan, but the surge threat is absolutely real. The surge and the rip currents are dangerous regardless of Bertha's wind speed. Those threats are real. Let me give you the city bycity breakdown so you know exactly what to expect. Mobile Alabama tropical storm force wines arrive tonight. Storm surge in the bay by Wednesday morning. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Peak surge risk of 2 to 4 feet beginning Wednesday at sunrise.

[00:09:18]Doofan Island. This island sits at sea level. 4 ft of surge water. There is life-threatening leave. Fort Morgan, same story as Doofane Island. If an order is out for you, go now. Pensacola Beach and Navar Beach, tropical storm watch, 11 ft surf rip currents already active. Gulfport and Beloxy tropical storm warnings active. 1 to 3 ft of surge possible. Slidel, Louisiana, watch for surge coming through Lake Pontra train. 2 to 4 feet in surge zones.

[00:09:44]Empire and Venice in Plaque's Parish.

[00:09:47]You have no natural surge barrier to the south. Please leave. If an evacuation order covers your area and you are still watching this video, stop. Get up. Get your family. Get your medications. Get your documents. Get out right now. Here is the summary every Gulf Coast family needs to hear before sleeping tonight.

[00:10:04]Tuesday night, tropical storm winds arrive the coast. Stay indoors. Do not drive near the beach. Wednesday morning, first storm surge peaks during high tide. Do not attempt to drive coastal roads. Wednesday afternoon, brief improvement. Do not be fooled. Bertha is still sitting offshore. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, second surge cycle. More flooding, same roads, same danger. If you see water on any coastal road this week, turn around and do not go through. Six inches of moving water knocks you down. Two feet will float your car away. Most flood deaths and storms like this happen inside vehicles.

[00:10:34]Every single one of them was avoidable.

[00:10:37]Check on your elderly neighbors tonight and again Wednesday morning. Bertha brings heat, too. A neighbor without power in July heat is as vulnerable as one without heat in January. Winter storms test infrastructure as summer tropical storms test judgment. Use yours wisely this week. I want to leave you with something from Matthew chapter 7.

[00:10:54]Build your house upon the rock. When the storms came, the house on the rock stood firm. Preparation is building on the rock. You took the time tonight to get informed. That is the first act of preparation. Now send this to someone you love on the Gulf Coast who has not seen it yet. A heads up from someone they trust is worth 10 push notifications. They will swipe away without reading. Bertha will pass. The surge will pull back. The Gulf will calm. The sun returns. But the choices made in the next 12 hours determine how the Gulf Coast comes through. Stay off the beaches. Stay away from flooded roads. Check on your neighbors. Stay informed. God bless you and keep you safe. if I will be back with updates as Bertha develops.