Ten Day Forecast: Late-May Heatwave For How Long?

Ajouté : 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Hello, and welcome back to today's second video. We're going to have a look at the weather for the next 10 to 14 days. Well, today's second video, so day 10 will take us to be first. Is that right?

[00:00:11]The first of June, and we'll be able to extend that beyond that. We are essentially at first in some ensembles.

[00:00:16]They're running around like a couple of ways. We'll have a look at surface week two. We ain't got the video for next four weeks, and I shall get on that for you in a moment. You see the first of you says I'll fix that in YouTube weather forecast with all of the latest info in terms of this uh coming weekend's hot weather heatwave, baby. Um and uh so check out that one if you'd like to do that. Like, share, subscribe, all that good stuff. Thank you so much everyone for doing that. For the girls weather there is right. Well, I've got a total 10 shift at what we got to do shortly, so I better get on with this uh update, I think, and get through it.

[00:00:51]Let's have a look then. So, you can start off with basic weather that from earth.nullschool.net showing that low pressure is now being blocked in the Atlantic toward Greenland high pressure has built to both our south and east, and the anticyclone has shifted the wind around to a southerly uh direction now. So, we're drawing up the air from the south, and so temperatures are on the up.

[00:01:18]Central England temperature is already responding to this warm weather. Now sitting at 10.7. That's just 0.4 of a degree below the 61 to 90 average.

[00:01:27]Provisional to be 20th of May. That's going to carry on rocketing over the next few days, and I would think by this time next week that could be in the uh low 12s, but we shall see.

[00:01:41]These were GFS upper air temperature and precipitation ensembles for next 20 days. Coventry today. The red line is the 30-year upper air temperature average for Coventry. We're starting off above average with the upper air temperatures at the moment. You can see them gradually beginning to reduce and come down, but it's a slow old journey, and it's not really until we get into the first week of June that they touch that precipitation was actually going at close [snorts] to average. So, prolonged spell of starting off very warm to hot, and then just above average conditions coming up for at least the next week, possibly 10 days or more. Precipitation, well, looking pretty dry there for the next week, not completely so, there will be some showers around here and there, but looking pretty dry. However, we do see through the first week of June quite an increase in precipitation spike. So, possibly we could say we've got a cooler and wetter trend then for the first week of June, but of course that remains to be seen.

[00:02:40]Temperature anomalies for the next 5 days to the 27th of May coming out substantially above average. So, you remember like a couple of a week ago, what what was it? Week, 10 days ago, we was like seeing really cold temperature anomalies, really below average temperature anomalies. Well, now we're shifting to really above average temperature anomaly. So, that's like I don't know, 6, 7 degrees above average there across England and Wales. Very strange May. This is turning into 10 to 14 day, still a bit above average, but coming down to be a lot more sensible.

[00:03:17]And but much drier as well.

[00:03:19]Precipitation anomaly for the next 7 days to the 29th of May looking really dry there.

[00:03:26]Okay, that's our good for chart data starting with the latest UK met Euro run for midnight on Monday. High pressure and 1,030 millibars is centered right over top of the UK. High pressure in control and dominates in the weather then through the course of next week.

[00:03:42]Loads of dry, warm conditions continue.

[00:03:45]That gets us to the end of next week.

[00:03:48]Just see the high pressure beginning to weaken a bit, but still really under high pressure even at that point. So, next week is looking mainly high and dry. I have to say that. Uh well, we go on to ICON and that one again showing high pressure bringing lots of dry, fine, sunny, and very warm hot weather or or hot weather over the uh weekend. I think we can use the H word now. Into uh mid part next week, we find the ridge just where the high pressure begins to break break and weak weaken a little bit. So, starting to turn not unsettled, but maybe a little bit more showery, especially so uh for the north coast of that area of low pressure by the end of next week. It looks like high pressure is breaking down there. I have to say. So, if we could go up beyond that into the weekend of the 30th 31st of May, we will probably find low pressure there taking over uh proper properly, but of course that is speculative to say the least.

[00:04:47]Then go on to the two GFS runs starting off with midnight again. High pressure bringing a lot of dry, warm, and hot weather over the uh course of weekend into next week. High pressure remains in control. Starting to move towards Greenland. So, high pressure begins to go into a retrograde then.

[00:05:05]Uh no, but I told you previously the last weekend of May actually shifting the wind around to a cooler northerly or northeasterly turning cool and showery there around days 8, 9, and 10. And then the high pressure breaks properly and in comes low pressure through the first week of June. So, that's a complete change to the weather pattern through the first week of June. Obviously, much more unsettled with those lows coming in from the Atlantic. A lot cooler and uh a lot wetter as well. But again, that is a long way off and you know, you have to take that with a large pinch of salt.

[00:05:39]The GFS 6 said in comparison again keeping the heat wave going through into uh next week. High pressure going towards Greenland.

[00:05:48]A retrogressive high pressure Greenland at the end of next week allowing low pressure start coming in underneath the block. So, turning cooler and more unsettled in the day 7-10 period. Um, getting it unsettled very further areas of low heading in from off the Atlantic all way into the extended range. So, both GFS runs break break down high pressure via retrograde same high pressure Greenland and then eventually So, that's the cool cooler wind direction by the end of next week get cool down. And then after that, low pressure heads in from off the Atlantic with both both GFS runs.

[00:06:29]Well, if you enjoyed my video, please like, share, and subscribe. Make sure you share it with your 14 mate. Drop a comment and let us know what you think about this app or whatever it is you got to say. Don't forget to check out Red's back garden as well if you haven't yet then. Cheers guys. Cheers. Thanks so much everyone for doing that. GM again with high pressure keeping things mainly dry and hot over the bank holiday weekend into next week that high pressure beginning to weaken. So, it's slow I'll do but it does eventually break down. So, once again by about day 9-10, low pressure heading in from off the Atlantic turning a lot more unsettled then. And then the ECM rounding it all off and it's looking like this. So, once more, high pressure is ruling the roost throughout most of next week keeping it mainly dry, very warm or hot conditions through [snorts] the end of next week turning out to be just warm.

[00:07:23]Up to day 10, perhaps more of an influence of the high pressure from the ECM compared to the other model output but it does eventually get rid of that high just beyond day 10. Low pressure heading in from Atlantic. Big change there with the first week of June with low pressure in control and in the ascendancy. So, the last week of May, hot. The first week of June, hot and dry, should say first last week so let's do that again. Last week of May, hot and dry. Um uh Last week of May, hot and dry. First week of June, cool and wet.

[00:07:56]>> [laughter] >> From the European as well as actually it's quite a consistent trend. But, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the kids the correct trend. They might be too progressive breaking down the anticyclone. Basically from some place to place forecast based on the ECMWF from 20 uh convert to dry across most parts of the country until about day 10 when some showers begin to break out the breakdown. Of course, just beyond day 10. Uh being solid on some tables in the ECMWF on Saturday for day 10. The Icelandic Met Office gets us to the 1st of June, not 2nd. 21 members of the ECMWF on Saturday low pressure uh and dominates weather actually in charge.

[00:08:30]We've got 18 clear dry operational run.

[00:08:33]Still keeping a ridge close to us, but it is under pressure from lows in the Atlantic. And then 12 with high pressure setting control to Scandinavia. So, although the majority of options the onset one here actually you can put the 18 go with the 12, we'll probably still have a trend towards higher pressure at day 10.

[00:08:53]And then in two times missing the option that we've got and all members of the ECMWF 51 out of 51 of the ECMWF on Saturday showing low pressure in control. So, whether the high pressure is still able to hold on for day 10, by day 14 it looks like it's done and dusted and low pressure is back in control with a cooler and wetter start to June.

[00:09:16]Surface week two and then we're done.

[00:09:18]These are 500 millibar heights are broken down into week periods. The first week period will be taking us from the 22nd to 28th of May. Next week, of course, has high pressure in control and in the ascendancy.

[00:09:32]And the same two for week two as well.

[00:09:34]This is the The of May to the 4th [snorts] of June, again high pressure is sitting pretty much over the top of the country. Okay, week three, will be the 5th to the 11th of June. High pressure still in control but just small to the west of us so mainly dry still with that but perhaps a bit cooler with the wind direction. And then week four rounds it all off and it's the 12th to the 18th of June. Then the high pressure is further away from us. It will be awful and we've probably got a got a trough through here. Oh, you know, I'm of course I've jet stream and and settled and showery. But of course that's four weeks later, long way off and therefore not worth worrying about.

[00:10:19]So we're done. If you enjoyed the video, please do give us a like, share, subscribe, all of that good stuff. Thank you so much everyone for doing that. I will be back tomorrow with more content.

[00:10:30]If you weren't worried about the summer, long range by the way, so Sunday we're going to have the second and final seasonal model round. So there is actually going to be a long range update on Sunday this week and that'll be the final seasonal model round up getting all the models yeah from the world's leading forecast centers for the final time and then bank holiday Monday is where we're releasing the summer forecast. So that's the plan for like weekend, well not the only plan but part of part of the plan of the weekend. And tomorrow of course we'll have more content for you. Keep checking back to the channel for more.

[00:11:05]I'm off to do the Churchill Channel.

[00:11:07]What's the gaps in your passport on the M1? Traveling around this afternoon I'll be seeing pop in say hello to me and I will I'll say yeah say yeah passport.

[00:11:17]Probably going to be a busy one today so I may not have time to chat for very long but you know, come and say hello.

[00:11:23]It'd be lovely to meet you all.

[00:11:25]I'll meet you. Right so that's it for today's video. If you enjoy the rest of your Friday go and enjoy the sunshine and don't forget this smile on that smile of yours, and thanks for watching.