RUSSIAN MASTERPLAN for Ukraine Unfolds as Russia Announces VOTE to ANNEX & OWN Occupied Territory

Añadido: 2026-06-02

[00:00:03]Hi, welcome back to Joe Blogs. In this episode, I want to talk about the latest political moves that Russia have made with regards to the occupied territory.

[00:00:12]As you'll be aware, around 20% of Ukraine is currently occupied by Russian forces. And it's been announced that some of the regions are now going to hold referendums to vote on whether or not they would like to officially join Russia. Now, this is exactly the same as what happened in Crimea in 2014. And that referendum went ahead. And of the people who voted, 97% voted in favor of joining Russia, and therefore Russia declared the annexation. And this is something that we've been expecting that Russia would do with regards to the occupied territory in Ukraine. So, in this video, I'll run you through the announcements that have been made. We'll have a look at the map of Ukraine and talk about the ethnicity of the areas that are being occupied and the languages that are being spoken and why Russia is trying to annex this part of Ukraine. We'll talk about the legal position because there's a difference of opinion between Russia and the West as to whether or not this referendum is legal. We'll then run through a bit more detail on the four regions of Ukraine that Russia is occupying. We'll have a look at what happened in Crimea in 2014 and what the comparison is with what's happening today. And then finally today, I'll wrap up with my summary. So, what I think is likely to happen here over the course of the next month or so, what the implications of this are for the war as a whole, and what the implications are for the global economy. So, before we get started on all of that, if I could ask you to give me a thumbs up at some point during this video if you're enjoying the content. Please subscribe if you haven't done so already. I'm on that push for 200,000 subscribers. So, if you can help out, that would be great. Don't forget I always include chapters in these videos. So, if there's a section you're not that interested in or you haven't got chance to watch the entire video, you can skip over stuff.

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[00:02:00]Russian-installed officials in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson have all announced that they will be holding a referendum to decide on whether or not they become part of an enlarged Russia. And at the time of filming this video, Zaporizhzhia had also announced its intention to officially launch a referendum. Now, the announcements of these referendums has come at a really interesting time in the war because Russia has been losing ground. Ukrainian troops have taken back over 6,000 square kilometers in recent weeks. And as we head towards winter in Ukraine, it's expected that Ukraine will step up its offensive and put more pressure on the Russian-occupied forces.

[00:02:38]The areas of Luhansk and Donetsk both declared Russian-backed people's republics back in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. However, these republics are not recognized by Ukraine or the West. The Russian-backed officials that have been appointed since the invasion have announced that the planned referendums will take place between September the 23rd and 27th.

[00:02:59]Recently appointed Russian officials in the Kherson region have also announced that a referendum will take place on the same dates. The former president of Russia and current deputy chairman of the Security Council stated that the outcome of the votes would be irreversible and give Moscow carte blanche to defend what it would regard as legally its own territory.

[00:03:18]Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime, which allows you to use all the forces of self-defense, he said in a Telegram post. This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West. No future Russian leader would be able to constitutionally reverse their outcome, he added. The head of Russia's State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said that the chamber would support the regions joining Russia if they voted to do so, and that they would completely change the vector of Russia's development for decades, and not just for our country. The geopolitical transformation of the world would be irreversible once the new territories were incorporated into Russia. At this stage, it's unclear how the referendums will be held in view of the fact that Russian-backed forces only control around 60% of the Donetsk region, and Ukrainian forces are actively trying to retake Luhansk. Pro-Russian officials previously said that the referendums could be held electronically.

[00:04:15]So, what's going on in Ukraine, and why have Russia invaded the country, and why are they trying to annex large parts?

[00:04:21]Well, all of this really dates back to the history of the Soviet Union. When Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, there was an active policy to move Russians into the area and move Ukrainians out of the country. And between 1959 and independence in 1991, the percentage of Ukrainians in Ukraine reduced from around 77% to 73%. And during that period, because it was under Russian control, the official language that was used in government and public life was Russian. And if we look at this language map of Ukraine, it plots the first language spoken by all of the people in Ukraine in the whole of the country. Now, Ukrainian is depicted in brown here, and Russian is depicted in blue. And you can see that there are pockets of Russian-speaking areas. The largest and most significant of these is the Crimea, which is the section at the bottom. And as I'm sure you'll be aware by now, that area was invaded by Russia in 2014, a referendum was held, and 97% of all of the people voted that they wanted to rejoin Russia, and that has now been annexed. But, if we look at the other areas on this map, you can see that the areas that are predominantly Russian-speaking are the areas that are currently occupied by Russian forces.

[00:05:33]So, what Russia is proposing to do here is exactly the same as they did with Crimea. They're looking to have a referendum for the people of these areas to vote that they want to join Russia, and this whole area across the eastern coast of Ukraine will then become part of Russia. So, this map gives you a good visual representation as to why Russia is trying to take this land. It sees these people as predominantly Russian, even though they are actually living in Ukraine, and they are officially Ukrainians. And effectively, Russia wants to move the boundary to take back all of this area. Now, obviously, when you're looking at a map of the country, it's difficult to dig down into the detail because we're just looking at percentages. We're just saying, is this area predominantly Ukrainian-speaking or Russian-speaking? So, let's have a look in a bit more detail at the four regions that have proposed a referendum to decide whether or not they would like to join Russia.

[00:06:28]Donetsk is the largest of the four regions with a population of 4.1 million. And following the independence of Ukraine in 1991, it became the industrial heartland of the country. The city was the political stronghold of pro-Russian politician Viktor Yanukovych, who with the support of local businessman, was elected as the president of Ukraine in 2010. However, widespread corruption and his heavy-handed response to the Maidan protest movement led to his removal from power in February 2014. In April 2014, Russian-backed militants and Russian troops in uniforms that lacked insignia seized control of a broad swathe of Ukrainian territory in the Donetsk Basin. The rebels declared Donetsk to be the capital of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, and fighting continued throughout the region. By the start of 2022, fighting in the region had claimed more than 14,000 lives. The 2001 census that was held in Ukraine, which is the last official on record, showed that 65% of the population of Donetsk had Russian ethnicity, and that around 90% of all of the citizens spoke Russian as their first language. So, this is a real stronghold for Russia in terms of having people who speak Russian and who see themselves as being Russian.

[00:07:46]Luhansk is the second largest region with a population of 2.1 million and also has an industrial background using the coal that's found in the local area.

[00:07:55]Alongside Donetsk, Luhansk was also subject to an uprising of Russian support and also declared itself as a republic independent from Ukraine in 2014. Russia officially recognized the sovereignty of the Luhansk People's Republic. However, this has been widely condemned by Ukraine and the rest of the world. Now, the balance of the population in Luhansk is much more even than it is in Donetsk. In the 2001 census, 50% of the population saw themselves as Ukrainian heritage and 47% as Russian. In the same census, 85% of the locals stated that they spoke Russian as their first language.

[00:08:32]However, this has been heavily influenced by the control of Russia during the Soviet Union era.

[00:08:40]Zaporizhzhia is the third largest region with a population of 1.7 million. In 1932, the largest hydroelectricity station in the world at that time was constructed and because of the power that this generates, the area has grown up to be a big steel manufacturing region and includes major iron and steel plants including one of the largest strip rolling mills in Ukraine. Other economic activities in the city include the manufacture of cars, electrical apparatus and the chemical industry which is supplied by coke byproducts.

[00:09:12]This region predominantly sees itself as Ukrainian with the census in 2001 showing that around 25% of inhabitants see themselves as having Russian heritage. Although despite that, around 60% of all the population do speak Russian as their first language. But again, this is a legacy as a result of the policies introduced during the Soviet Union era.

[00:09:35]Kherson is the smallest of the four regions with a population of 1 million, but is an important region as it has direct access to the Black Sea. As a result of this, the city has a heritage of shipping and shipbuilding and has developed other industries such as engineering, oil refining, and cotton textile manufacturing. Kherson was the first major city to come under Russian occupation in the recent invasion. And interestingly, in March, the Russian military called on local Ukrainian authorities to cooperate with them and announced their intentions to hold a referendum on the proclamation of the Kherson People's Republic. Residents of Kherson and the surrounding towns responded with civil disobedience and organized peaceful protests of many thousands through social networks under the slogan, "My city is Ukrainian." On the 12th of March 2022, the democratically elected Kherson Regional Council adopted a resolution proclaiming the planned referendum illegal, which is obviously very interesting in light of the latest referendum that's been called by the Russian authorities.

[00:10:38]As I mentioned at the start of the video, back in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and after a period of occupation, a referendum was held to decide whether or not the area wanted to revert back to Russian control.

[00:10:52]>> During the day, the few Russian troops in the streets weren't coercing the locals. They were besieging the remaining Ukrainian soldiers inside their barracks.

[00:11:04]The West maintains the referendum is illegal since Russia signed an international agreement to guarantee Ukraine's borders.

[00:11:13]The flags on the voting booths may look like Russian colors, but in fact, they're Crimea's colors, too.

[00:11:20]There were only two choices on the ballot paper. One simple, do you want to be part of Russia? And one complicated, do you want to go back to the 1992 relationship between Crimea and Ukraine?

[00:11:32]You couldn't just say you wanted things to stay as they were.

[00:11:36]And because the boxes were transparent, it was easy to see how people had voted.

[00:11:42]I could only spot two anti papers.

[00:11:46]"Everything is okay and calm and friendly." says the woman in charge.

[00:11:52]But not everyone's so happy. In the rain and cold this morning, we went to the town of Bakhchisaray, where a sizable majority of people are Tatars, Muslims who once owned the Crimea and were brutally uprooted under Stalin. Most are deeply unwilling to join Russia. And today, they were staying indoors.

[00:12:13]We've spoken to various Tatar people here. No one wants to talk on camera. No one's going out to vote. They're scared.

[00:12:23]But at another Tatar village, they were much more outspoken. There is no way to vote here because the locals wouldn't let their buildings be used for it.

[00:12:34]Amir says, "We're not afraid. Only the women are afraid for the children. This is our land. We're not going to become Russians."

[00:12:45]But the rest of Crimea clearly is. And tonight, the crowds were out in force celebrating the foregone conclusion.

[00:12:54]>> So, what Russia is trying to do at the moment is effect exactly the same process that it completed in Crimea in 2014. However, there's a big difference between the two. In Crimea, there was much less military conflict. The Russians came in on their tanks. There was no outright war as such. And after a short period of occupation, the vote was held and the vast majority of the people who voted decided that they wanted to revert back to Russian control. Now, that has never been formally agreed in an international forum. But since 2014, Crimea has been annexed by Russia.

[00:13:31]So, what's the summary and conclusion today? Well, since the invasion of Ukraine started, it's been inevitable that these referendums would be coming.

[00:13:39]At some point, Russian-installed officials were going to declare a vote to decide whether or not these regions wanted to move back to Russian ownership. But, the timing of these declarations is really interesting because up until a month ago, Russia was winning the war. It had taken occupation of 20% of Ukraine, and it was holding tight. But, over the last few weeks, Ukrainian forces have started reversing that process. They've been taking back large swaths of land, around 6,000 square kilometers at the last count. And Russia is now retreating, and it's running short of people and equipment.

[00:14:17]And recently, we've seen Russia recruiting on the streets. They've been trying to get people to join up to the conflict, but they've also been using mercenaries. And they've been recruiting additional people out of prison. So, they've been hiring convicts directly to go in and fight this war. So, Russia is becoming stretched, and it's becoming more desperate. And it may well lose its grip on some of these areas. So, the timing of these referendums is really interesting. It looks like Russia is trying to have these referendums quickly, make the vote, declare that everybody then wants to move under Russian ownership, and start a negotiation process from a position of strength. If they can say that everybody in those regions has voted in favor, then politically, they've got an argument to try to take these areas.

[00:15:04]Now, obviously, Ukraine is going to push back against that. And in the Donetsk region, as an example, Russia is only controlling around 60%. So, it doesn't actually have any foothold in the other 40%. So, it's a big stretch to ask all of the people in that region to vote in favor of Ukraine because 40% of them are actually sitting outside of the occupied territory. And the other factor that we have to bear in mind is that winter is coming in Ukraine, and that period is going to represent a really difficult spell for Russia to keep the supplies going and to keep hold of the ground that it's occupying. It's likely that the Ukrainian forces supported by all of the financial backing from NATO and the West will make a concerted effort to push Russia back over the next few months. And it's quite likely that Russia could lose even more ground than it's lost over the last few weeks. So, we're at a real turning point in the conflict here. So, I can see exactly why Russia is trying to rush through these referendums because this might be the last chance that it gets before it starts losing more territory. Now, from Ukraine and the West's point of view, it's very unlikely that they will recognize these referendums. Russia has invaded the country and is forcibly occupying large parts of Ukraine. Now, that position has not been accepted by Ukraine. They are in a war. They're trying to force Russia back. So, they won't be happy to agree to any referendum despite what Russia say, despite any of the politicians coming out and saying that this is legally binding and now it's part of Russia, we will bring the full force of Russia against you. Well, they're doing that anyway. Russia is in a war here. They may call it a special military operation, but let's face it, it's a war. They've sent all of their tanks and bombs and everything else. So, if it looks like a war and smells like a war, then it is a war. So, I don't think there's really any difference from a political perspective whether or not these areas vote in favor of this referendum. And of course, there's a big question mark as to the validity of this vote because if you're being asked to make a vote at a time when there are lots of Russian soldiers with tanks and machine guns and grenades sitting outside your house, then that's going to influence your decision. You're going to be under a lot of pressure to vote in favor of that Russian ownership. So, I don't really think that this is a fair playing field. It's not a democratic process. It's likely that anybody who votes in this referendum is going to be coerced either physically, mentally, or just generally in terms of the environment that they're living in right now. So, what's the potential outcome here? Well, I think it's likely that these referendums will go ahead, and it's highly likely that the vote will come out in favor of rejoining Russia because of the situation. These people are voting in a war zone. And as we saw in 2014 in Crimea, the people who wanted to vote against Russia just didn't come out and vote. They didn't have polling booths in those areas, and they didn't cast a vote. So, all of the votes that were put forward were in favor of the Russian proposal. So, in all likelihood, these areas will vote in favor of rejoining Russia. However, that vote will not be recognized by Ukraine or the West. So, this is an entirely academic exercise. And as I've just mentioned, the fact that Russia then claims that these areas as part of Russia, and therefore will defend its territory, is pretty much the same situation as we've got right now, because Russia is already defending those areas. So, it's trying to take this forcibly. Now, in terms of my overall assessment of the war, I think Russia has potentially brought forward these referendums because of the loss of ground that it's had over the last few weeks. I think Russia is losing its grip on these areas, and potentially it may need to make further retreats over the next few weeks. We could possibly see Russia losing this war before the end of 2022. Now, overall, if Russia was to concede the war and retreat and actually leave Ukraine, then obviously that would be a good outcome for the global economy, which is my main focus for these videos. However, when you look at what President Putin has done historically, it would seem unlikely that he will actually abandon the war and go back to Russia. If If at what happened in Chechnya back in 2000, Russia came up against fierce fighting from the locals, and Russia dug in, and that war lasted for almost 9 years. Now, hopefully, that's not going to be the situation in Ukraine, but I think what could happen over the next few months is that we may see Russia losing ground. We may see Ukraine making a big effort to close down the war, but I think they will retreat back to their strongholds, and then we may well see a long-drawn-out fight. So, if this war doesn't conclude within the next 6 to 8 weeks, then I think it's likely that it will go on into 2023 and beyond. And of course, the implications of that for the global economy are really bad news, because the longer this war goes on, the more uncertainty we'll have with regards to oil prices and gas prices and food prices, commodity prices, and the more uncertainty we'll have with regards to financial markets, and we're already on the precipice of a global recession.

[00:20:08]Inflation is at really high levels all around the world. We're seeing interest rates being brought up. That's causing pain for a lot of people who've got debt. So, it's likely that we're going to see a contraction of GDP globally over the next 6 months, but if this war does carry on for the next 6 to 12 months, then that contraction could continue all the way through 2023. So, a peaceful resolution would be the best possible outcome for everybody. However, Ukraine is not going to concede these areas to Russia, even if these referendums vote in favor of joining Russia, Ukraine won't agree to that. And Ukraine is being fully supported by the West. So, you've got a large chunk of the world who won't agree to Russia's demands. And because of what's happened in Crimea, I think Russia will look to these votes as being legally binding, and so we may well have a Mexican standoff, and this war could easily carry on for the next 6 to 12 months.

[00:21:03]So, I'll keep you posted on any further news and developments as and when they happen. Hopefully, you've found today's episode interesting, informative, and thought-provoking. If you've liked what I've said, please give me a thumbs-up and don't forget to subscribe if you haven't done so already.