Has ETH/BTC Bottomed and Who Leads From Here?

[00:00:00]We could go higher even. I always look at the what I call the the traders onchain realized price. So that it's like a realized price but for short-term movements. Right now it's around 72. So you know during the bare market that we have gone up and touched that level three times or two times. So when when there's a rally it goes and touches that that level. Bitcoin has broken 66K. Is the bottom finally in or is this setting us up for another summer drop? What is this telling us about the altcoin markets and what is this telling us about Ethereum here? Hello and welcome to the Milkro Show, the podcast that knows that it's going to be a lot more fun to do these episodes when we can stop asking have we bottomed and start asking where is the top. I'm your host John Gillan. Today is Wednesday, July 22nd and today we are joined by Julio Mareno. Julio is the head of research at CryptoQuant where he leads datadriven onchain analysis and institutional grade research on Bitcoin and digital assets.

[00:00:56]Julio has over 15 years of experience in market intelligence and he's a longtime friend of Milk Road. Julio is going to share a ton of alpha with us today as he always does. So if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.

[00:01:07]Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Today's episode is brought to you by Securitize the regulated rails for tokenization and BitGet stocks 2.0 with real liquidity, real dividends. Without further ado, welcome back to the Milkro Show, our old friend Julio. How are you?

[00:01:21]>> Hello, John. I'm fine. Thanks for having me again.

[00:01:24]>> Glad to have you back on the show.

[00:01:26]Julio, I feel like you and I have been talking about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin bare market on these episodes and these updates for months at this point. So, I was really excited when you sent over a deck on Ethereum and its relationship to Bitcoin and and where it's bottoming.

[00:01:40]Just before we get into this here, I'd like to hear your thoughts. What got you interested in talking about this ETH BTC ratio and and what's gotten your attention about ETH at this moment in the market here?

[00:01:50]>> Well, you know, I I see ETH could be like a like a bail weather or the altcoin space. So, I I I do divide uh you know, Bitcoin on the one side because it's it's you know, as it's a unique asset, the store of value, right?

[00:02:10]and and and so and then the other one is like all the other crypto and all all the other chains that are you know doing different things not not competing with Bitcoin but doing doing other things. Uh and so Ethereum is in in in that in that side Ethereum is the most important um in terms of a v variety of of reasons uh including market cap. So how how it moves uh I think it it it gives you some insight into what to expect for the other coins. So uh as you say we've been talking a lot about Bitcoin about in in this bare market when it's it's bottoming but then looking into the other side I think it's also important and it also gives you insights on what to expect uh for the other side of of of crypto.

[00:03:00]>> Hi everyone this is John. Listen our Milkroad Pro analysts nailed this AI bull market. They we had dozens of calls pay off in a big way for our community.

[00:03:07]If you want to see how our entire team of analysts are positioning for the crypto bull market that's going to come after this bare market finally ends, you can join us now at Milk Road Pro. It's just a dollar. Link is in the description. You'll get access to all of our analyst trades, their watch lists, and see how they're navigating this in their portfolios and get access to ask us questions in Discord anytime, day or night. It's just a dollar. Links in the description. Milk Road Pro. Join now.

[00:03:28]I'll see you there.

[00:03:29]>> Gotcha. Well, I want to come back to Bitcoin at the end of the conversation to get your thoughts on that. But for now, I think it makes sense to just go right into your your presentation. It's titled Cheaper Not Capitulated. Uh take us through this, man. What's What do you got for us today?

[00:03:42]>> Yeah, we're gonna see um mostly a few a few charts and a few metrics about Ethereum. Uh comparing um the goal is to uh valuate Ethereum. You know, is it cheaper? Uh now after this all this bare market, is it bottom? Uh so we're gonna value Ethereum against some of their their own metrics, but also it's really interesting to see Ethereum compared relative to Bitcoin in terms of who is outperforming and then in terms of between those two who is um more undervalued because that really gives you insight into what to to expect ahead. So a lot of the these charts it's it's it's metrics about the the the relative value between uh Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of the price and in terms of some key metrics uh metrics about exchange flows metrics about um ETFs holdings um metrics about the the relative um value between those two. So, you're going to see that and then um so my my goal was to to uh answer the question if Ethereum has bottom relative to Bitcoin because historically when that happens and we form a bottom then you can expect an upward trend and also historically after that Ethereum has overperformed outperformed Bitcoin. So that's uh interesting to to see with this with these metrics. Um, so you >> yeah, >> you're you're valuing ETH, you're valuing ETH on certain metrics relative to ETH and its, you know, its own price action, but also its relative strength to Bitcoin is a big indicator for you.

[00:05:25]So I guess you'll you'll call that out more as we go deeper into this, but yeah, take us through this one.

[00:05:29]>> Yes, correctly. So yeah, just uh the first slide is just a summary, you know, about Ethereum. It has underperformed Bitcoin uh all these in in this entire bare market. uh the price right now the we're going to see price you know uh the age price relative to Bitcoin which is the first the first bucket here uh 028 uh it's around that on on August 2025 was the the previous local top for for that ratio it was at around almost 05 the price of of Ethereum right now around 1,900 17% below its its cost basis which is also an important metric. Uh and we going to see a chart about this uh the realized price of Ethereum. This is the you know the cost basis. This is the cost basis or the fur um value per price for for Ethereum. So it's important to see also the the relation between those those two. And then you know after we see all these charts there are you know some of um which ones are indicating a bottom and which are are not indicating a bottom yet. So right now it's two out of five but we're going to see you know which ones and and the implications and so yeah we're going to assess that you know Ethereum against its own cost basis and then relative to Bitcoin what's what the data is telling us. Just to contextualize that, just so people know, the price of Ethereum today is about $1,940.

[00:07:02]Um, and Julio is saying that that's cheap, but there may be some other things to look for for capitulation. So, yeah, keep us going on this.

[00:07:10]>> Yes, exactly. Uh, so yeah, this is the first one. So, it's this is the price of Ethereum in black here. And then this um purple line uh in the middle is the the real realized price of Ethereum or the average cost basis of of everyone that has Ethereum um called Ethereum. Yep.

[00:07:31]>> So that's the line that you're using as Ethereum's fair value metric. Correct.

[00:07:35]>> Yes. Exactly. So yeah, and you can see that it oscillates around that value, right?

[00:07:40]>> It sure does.

[00:07:41]>> Yeah. when it when it goes to you know too far uh above it's a it has been historically top and then it it goes uh below and it it is right now it's really uh it's below the fair value it's around 17% um and also it's closer to the you know the lower band there um we have a upper band and a lower band so it's it you can say that it's you know it's undervalued against its own cost basis by 70% and historically when you see that you know it has been a a period where Ethereum starts to to form a bottom right so that's where we are right now I think uh you know after one year of or more than one year yeah one year of a bare market going from almost 5,000 uh to to almost yeah like I think 1,00 uh 200 something like that 300 um we are there now in this in this uh undervalued area for for Ethereum so against cost basis Ethereum will be is undervalued and it's it's like forming a bottom around that around that level >> okay so the the lower bound of this is around a little bit under $1,200 and then the upper bound of this I think you're saying is is somewhere around like 4,000.

[00:09:13]>> No, the upper bun is 5,000.

[00:09:15]>> Oh, I see. Okay.

[00:09:16]>> Yeah.

[00:09:17]>> I see. Okay. So, yeah. So, we are definitely much closer to the lower than the upper then.

[00:09:20]>> Mhm. Yeah. So, some some thing that it it also indicates is that you know that riskreward ratio when when you go uh lower and and near to the lower band that riskreward ratio is much greater.

[00:09:35]Now, if you you buy, right? because your upside it's you know 500 um 5,300 and then you your downside is is more limited right so that's that's why you know looking at this metric and and where Ethereum is relative to that metric is is important to to assess you know the valuation yeah so then this is against its own cost basis right so we can say right now against that Ethereum is undervalued so we are approaching that that zone of u bottoming zone right >> so this is one of your five >> sorry I I don't mean to keep interrupting but this is one of your five metrics for finding the bottom this one you're saying is showing it seems to be undervalued and that's a sign that Ethereum is is close to its bottom right >> yes yeah that's correct so that's Ethereum against itself uh in a way and then the next charts are again relative to Bitcoin that's uh one I think it gives you like more insight uh into what to expect for Ethereum. Now the the first one um again the black line is the price of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. So is that ratio of prices uh and the purple line is the ratio but between between um one metric that is the the MBRB ratio of those of the two coins. Uh so it's a ratio of that um and that what it what it's telling you is the relative value of the of the coins right so for example right here when when this when this purple line which is the the ratio between the MBRBs of the two coins it's really high you know at around this red area um that's that tells you when Ethereum is overvalued you know extremely overvalued against Bitcoin. Uh so you can see historically when you you enter that zone historically um the price of Ethereum has picked against Bitcoin right and and the other way is that when when this um when this metric it's it's um below you know below 04 in this green area it tells you that Ethereum is extremely on undervalued relative to Bitcoin. So that's the two you know the two edge cases that we extreme levels that we um see uh in this chart right so um back in August last year you know remember that Ethereum had that you know that rally um between I think uh you know April and August. So that's the price increases against against Bitcoin relative to Bitcoin but also you know the valuation spiked right and and we got this peak when when the when Ethereum was extremely overvalued to Bitcoin. Since then it has declined and and we entered the the bare market and so the price of Ethereum um underperformed and also but at the same time it it it gets less and less overvalued against Bitcoin. right now it's around a neut neutral zone I would say um relative to bitcoin uh according to this to this metric so it came with from an extremely overvalued zone now until um on a a neutral zone and but still still we haven't touched those levels that signal you know the the bottoming of Ethereum relative to bitcoin which would be around this level, right? That so this this um this um purple line has to come down for Ethereum to be extremely undervalued, right? And that's when you know the bottom forms and then outperforms Bitcoin. That's that's the, you know, the insight here. Um so yeah, so um according to this one, I mean, we're not yet at that extreme undervalue level and and not um still not bottoming according to this one, right? Yeah.

[00:13:51]>> So on a relative basis, you're saying in order to get to back to like extreme like undervalued levels for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, we might have some underperformance from Ethereum relative to Bitcoin before we reach that point.

[00:14:04]Is that what you're basically saying here?

[00:14:06]>> Yes. Yes. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah.

[00:14:08]So we still on that neutral zone. Not not as overvalued as we were last year in August, right? we are in the neutral zone, but still have some some route to go. Um, and once if we get there and once we get there, then you could say, you know, it's it's it's historically has been a good indicator for for Ethereum outperforming ahead.

[00:14:31]>> Yep.

[00:14:31]>> Gotcha. And this this could happen with Bitcoin just I mean not that this is going to happen but like if Bitcoin goes to 80K or 100K and Ethereum doesn't move much off of where it is right now then this metric would get to that you know extreme o like uh undervalued level for Ethereum and maybe mean that it was going to go higher right.

[00:14:50]>> Yes. Yes. Exactly. So it it's um yeah it's it couldn't go like both ways. um you know if we are in a bare market so and Bitcoin declines Ethereum can you know decline more and and that will be get this metric to um extremely under value levels or or like you said uh Bitcoin starts to rally but Ethereum um doesn't rally as much and so that also will bring this uh metric to the on extremely undervalued zone so yeah it can be both ways so here we are mostly comparing coins [clears throat] not not their absolute performance but the relative performance of of those coins right so but you know in the past I guess one of the the questions that we tried to to answer is here with with this metric is who's going to outperform next that's that's the question [laughter] >> so so yeah historically when we get to this really extremely undervalued zones for Ethereum in the in uh coming months or you know ahead it it it outperforms a lot.

[00:16:00]>> Gotcha. So you're saying Bitcoin might lead in the short term but there will come a time where you think it's more likely that that Ethereum outperforms and we haven't quite gotten there yet.

[00:16:09]>> Yes. Exactly. Exactly.

[00:16:11]>> Okay.

[00:16:11]>> Yeah. Yeah. So this was, you know, for the relative value between the two coins. And then this next chart, I mean, it's it's the it looks really similar, right? It's is is um you're telling you the under extremely undervalued zones and the extremely overvalued zones, right? But it's this is from the perspective of, you know, the flows that we are seeing into exchanges for both coins. So um similar to the previous chart when we get to to this when this metric which is the ratio between the inflows to exchanges of the two coins so it's that ratio uh when we get really high in this metric uh to to this zone the red zone here here and here in August last year but it indicates that it is the flows of Ethereum to exchanges are much higher than Bitcoin. flows into exchanges. So, what that tells you is that there's going to be more selling pressure for Ethereum than for Bitcoin on a relative basis because there's more inflows into exchanges uh for Ethereum when we get here. And then when we get to this when the ratio, you know, decreases and gets to the this green zone, um it's the opposite. So there's more selling pressure for Bitcoin than forum or you can say there's much less pressure selling pressure for for Ethereum that for Bitcoin right so it's the same principle that you know when there's less selling pressure for Ethereum you can expect that it will you know outperform ahead but then it gets into into um when it gets to the zone extremely um inflows to to exchanges then you can expect that Ethereum you know uh underperforms ahead which is what is what has happened historically.

[00:18:11]So it's the same it's the same or really really similar interpretation right now that we got from a you know a really high uh selling pressure for Ethereum on August last year you know after the rally that Ethereum had outperforming Bitcoin and now again we are in that neutral zone so it's really similar to the interpretation from the previous chart. So but this is for a you know from a exchange flow perspective um of the two coins. So, so again, you know, some uh maybe in the next few months we get to that um extremely low selling pressure for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin and then the expectation will be for it to outperform ahead.

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[00:20:05]>> Gotcha. Okay. So on a relative basis, we're seeing about half the selling pressure we saw from Ethereum relative to Bitcoin when Ethereum was overvalued relative to Bitcoin. And you're expecting another or you're hoping for another basically 50% relative drop in the selling pressure of Ethereum before we get to a place where you're saying like hey the market's showing much stronger support and demand for ETH um in terms of I guess like not lack of sell pressure. Is that is that about what you're saying here?

[00:20:35]>> Yes. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. So uh so if we look at the historical patterns and then we should you know spec this to the climb a little bit more into that into this zone where as you said there's much much less pressure selling pressure for Ethereum than for Bitcoin and then after that is when Ethereum uh outperforms um so yeah you can say like it bottom relative to Bitcoin and then the expectation would be for it to to outperform form ahead. That's that's basically what this analysis is answering you answering. You know, >> all these are trending in the right direction so far, though. So, this is all it's all going the right way.

[00:21:19]>> Yeah. I mean, yeah, exactly. It's it's behaving, you know, really similar to previous cycles, right? So that's why we keep an eye on this when when you if you want to know, you know, what's going to be Ethereum performance against Bitcoin relative to Bitcoin. So that's, you know, the way that we have found that makes more sense to to analyze it uh relative to Bitcoin. Yeah.

[00:21:44]>> So far we've got one of your five that your five signals that you're watching that says Ethereum might have bottomed, two that say it might not have bottomed.

[00:21:52]What's the fourth one?

[00:21:53]>> Yeah. So the next one is looking into to so here we are assessing selling pressure right and the next one we look at the total holdings of uh Ethereum and and of ETFs Ethereum and and Bitcoin ETFs the total holdings right but again the ratio so we are interested to see that that relationship right so this one is assessing demand right previous one was assessing selling pressure. This one is assessing like demand growth, relative demand growth between Ethereum and Bitcoin by looking into ETFs holdings, the ratio of total Ethereum holdings um relative to uh total BTC uh holdings for for ETFs, right? So and you can see that you know there's of course we have less history here because Ethereum ETF was just launched on uh mid 2024 but what we seeing is that you know again when this area the purple area this ratio so when it's decreasing it means that the Bitcoin holdings of ETFs are growing faster than Ethereum. So you can say, oh there's more demand on the at the margin for Bitcoin than for Ethereum. But then this is what we saw um last year uh yeah 2025. Yes. Um it it turned upwards again and then it really rallied this this this metric. It really increased so that in all this period there was more demand for Ethereum than for Bitcoin on a relative basis. And so that coincides with you know Ethere not performing Bitcoin because there's more like institutional demand. Um and now you know we we've been in this this market and then so the the demand for Ethereum decline more than than for Bitcoin. Uh so we we've seen this in trending downwards since you know August probably August September last year. So close to a year of material demand uh being weaker than than Bitcoin and just you know we could be like seeing some of it you know you know bouncing back. So for for me, this one, you know, is telling you that maybe it's starting to improve the relative demand for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, right? It's too soon maybe to to to see to say that it has completely changed the trend, but you know, it it could be, you know, it's worth to to keep an eye on this uh from the demand side for um for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. I was really interested to see how you highlighted that turn at the end. For those who are are listening, this chart shows sort of like a relative downtrend in this ETH BTC um demand um ETF demand. Um but then in the last little part of the chart, the purple starts to go up and it seems like we're starting to see some demand for ETH here. And I've been, you know, Julio, we don't have to get into this a ton, but I've been watching this a lot because just this week, we finally started to seeing some positive flows into Bitcoin, um, Ethereum, Salana, XRP ETFs, and some of the altcoin ETFs in the most recent, um, you know, part of the market here have shown relative strength, um, to Bitcoin, which I've talked about with other guests on the show. So, it does seem like it, you know, just like you said, it's too soon soon to tell for sure, but it does seem like we're starting to see some changes in demand on the ETFs that might indicate we're seeing some more interest in the altcoin space. And I don't know if that's speculation on clarity or maybe it's just a sign the market's starting to bottom or or or whatever, but um it is something that's important and I I I was interested to see that you flagged that too on your slide here and say that, hey, this is improving and it's a trend to watch.

[00:25:48]>> Yes. Yes, that's that's that's correct.

[00:25:50]And um I mean I I I haven't follow too much the you know the clarity maybe you know you and other guests that you have had um are more know more about that but I my impression is that it's more it's better for the altcoins than for bitcoin it's more about that I guess um what's your >> I agree with that for sure. Yes.

[00:26:13]>> Yeah. So maybe that you know also you know the investors start to position uh before that uh and also because we have had you know we could be in the you know late stage of the bird market. So all that starts to position ahead ahead ahead of those of those events, right?

[00:26:32]So yeah. Yeah. So the bottom line is like like you said, we we're seeing you know maybe the start of that um more demand at the margin for Ethereum and maybe all the coins from the ETFs than you know than than for Bitcoin. And that's uh you know that's the or has been in this relatively um uh low history that we have like um has been you know an indication of that when when that happens you know more demand at the margin for other other coins and then outperforming.

[00:27:06]>> Okay. So this one goes in the not uh not flipped to a green bullish signal yet but it is improving as it goes in that bucket.

[00:27:15]>> All right. What's what's the fifth what's the fifth signal you got for us here?

[00:27:18]>> Um yeah and this is the last one. So this is also you know all these charts are um um metrics of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin and this one is for spot trading volumes. So here we are measuring that ratio Ethereum spot trading volume relative to Bitcoin spot trading volumes. Uh so and typically also when when Ethereum outperforms that ratio is increasing right there's more like uh you know trading uh demand or is more there's more uh buying in in the spot markets for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin right so all this is relative always and so the the outperformance of of Ethereum concise with that you know more uh spot volume for for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin we've seen in 2017 and the both at the peaks uh 2021 here and then recently in in the last year also that's that um outperformance of bit of Ethereum against Bitcoin between April and and August also like a spike in in those trading trading volumes um and that in that ratio and since then you know this got has come down and what I see from this chart that we are Now you know at bottom levels for this metric. Uh this this metric really is telling you you know we are really near to to that bottom level in which you know there's much less trading volume for for Ethereum relative to bitcoins.

[00:28:54]Um and so after that it typically has signal uh a recovery of Ethereum and then the outperformance. So this one is, you know, I would say, you know, at bottoming levels of signaling that for for Ethereum.

[00:29:08]>> Yeah. The thing that stood out to me on this slide was the the line you have here in bold. Speculative interest in ETH has been fully washed out. Um, and I thought that that was like a great way of, you know, just saying like, hey, these price levels, this trading volume, people aren't like going super den on these assets right now. And uh I think that's a a a really bullish indicator for uh you know forming a bottom and and starting a new phase of of a bull run and moving back into that oversp speculative market because all that's been washed out of crypto finally after after all these months of of bare market action. Um yeah and I think that that's like what you want to see at a bare market bottom, right? And that's what you're saying here in this slide, right?

[00:29:47]>> Yes. Exactly. Yes. like you said when we are at the peaks you know of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin you know that that is um is showing that in trading volumes uh either spot or futures uh that spike that that really you know the really the marginal buyer going all in right at the top. So uh we we had that last year and then all you know since then it's all you know coming down because there's more like trading activity there's less speculation there's less u yeah u activity on on on that type of activity right so yeah and now we are according to this metric at at the bottom of of of of that of that uh trading trading activity >> okay cool so that's that's Another one in the bullish camp.

[00:30:40]>> Exactly. Yeah. The two the two we've seen the two of the five. Um this is just you know the the summary that we what we have seen Ethereum realized price uh Ethereum against uh you know relative to its own realized price you know it's under it's an undervalued zone you know forming a bottom [clears throat] um of of undervaluation.

[00:31:03]uh the the relative value between Ethereum and and Bitcoin not yet because we are in a you know neutral zone now after being extremely overvalued last year. The same for exchange inflows in neutral zone. So we are not quite there at for the bottom uh ETF holdings improving right we we saw that um and then for you know it and BTC spot volume ratio we can say that we are you know bottoming levels for for that so two out of the five that we saw uh at the beginning so uh I would say you know more constructive but still you know you can't really call call the bottom But uh it's uh you know improving from from where we where we were a few months ago.

[00:31:53]>> Yeah. And I want to just call out for our audience the way Julio approaches this I think is really instructive because uh he's not just using one metric. He's not just looking at you know one price chart or something. He's looking at several ways of evaluating where the market is where the relative valuation of ETH is and just a lot of things here to get a confluence of things to say okay what does the landscape look like and and have we reached a bottom here? And you know, just like you said, it's not quite totally clear yet if we have, but it does look like for the first time in a great while, Ethereum might be showing signs of a bottom and you know, the foundations of the beginning of the next bull run and bull market. And that's a great opportunity, right? Because you want to find great assets that are undervalued and you know, like that's the first green word you've got on this chart is undervalued. Um, so it's a really interesting time in Ethereum and in digital assets overall. Uh, so just wanted to call that out for the audience, but thanks for putting this all together, Julia.

[00:32:45]>> Yeah. Yeah, sure. Uh yes exactly that's what we try to to do when we are analyzing um the market or specific coin like you said uh don't just look one indicator or one model uh trying to you know form a more or have a more informed um way to to assess where where the market is and so that you you can get into the uh to that by looking to more metrics right Um but keeping it simple also I mean not too much metrics right >> the model gets too complicated then maybe you never get you know the the final uh signal from a lot of metrics but yeah I mean the these are like five metrics uh for Bitcoin we have had you know in the in the previous in the previous uh podcast here uh the bull score indicator which is 10 metrics right uh that that tells you where where Bitcoin is. So those type of analysis I I you know really like to do to look at some of the most important or key metrics and and then >> this is why I love crypto so much. So yeah [laughter] you do great data analysis but you keep it just like you said kind of concise and simple and something that everybody can understand. So I yeah I really appreciate your work on this. Uh do you have any other slides here in this tech force? Okay cool.

[00:34:08]>> Um well this is just like a conclusion right? uh is a little bit of the similar to what we what we uh have discussed. Uh some metrics are already there. Some other metrics, you know, still in the the in the neutral and so just what it means you know the final bottom for for it um outperform the bottom and then our performance may you know still stay still take more a little bit more time to form. Uh, but you know, we're we're we're a little bit better than in the previous months.

[00:34:40]>> Okay, great. Julio, thank you so much for going through all of this. I I really appreciate you giving us that detailed outlook there. I want to end with, you know, I I said at the beginning, we'd come back to Bitcoin.

[00:34:50]Bitcoin has been kind of ranging around 64K for about a week. You know, it's gone up and down a little bit, but just recently today, it it's broken 66K, and I'm really curious your thoughts. Have you seen any updated confirmations in terms of a bottoming process on Bitcoin or just any updated outlook for for you on on Bitcoin and and the price action we've seen here?

[00:35:10]>> So I mean actually we I did a report I think two weeks ago. um yeah the at the start of July maybe the first uh week of July but typically you know July and typically in bare market it's a good month you know bitcoin performs well um so you know with this you know with this rally so far July uh I still see it as a you know a bare market rally so we're still in a bare market and the fact that it's July is typically a good month. I don't want to, you know, uh just think that we are, you know, we already bottom and and it's uh we're rallying after this because uh because of that seasonality, right? So, it could be like just seasonality. Uh that's where what I see right now. So, overall, we're still in the in the in in in the bare market. Um I think there maybe you know a few months more. Uh but I do see some signals of of that we are in the late stage of the bare market especially with uh you know uh they realized losses that we see on chain uh from holders. Um through through all last year the average holder was still realizing profits right less and less and less as prices declined.

[00:36:41]But now it's it's mostly realizing losses. So that's one of the first um signals that I see when when we're starting to you know the late stage of of our market. So that's something that uh I recently noticed uh for for in terms of the realized losses from holders but that takes you know a few months more. Uh, and so with this rally, I'm I'm still seeing it as a bare market rally and because of the seasonality can can, you know, misguide you. But but yeah, I I'll wait a little a little bit more.

[00:37:18]>> I think your suspicious facial expressions say everything. You know, there's a little bit of like a I don't trust this rally kind of vibe, but I agree with you. I think there's a lot of um resistance and sell pressure at 68K and again at 71 and 74K. So, I think there's a lot of reason to still kind of be hesitant about whether or not this holds, but you know, I think, you know, like you said, you haven't been watching the Clary so much. There's a lot of speculation it might pass in August, and I think maybe that could start off the bull run sooner than people expect. So, it is really one of these things where it's a great time to pay attention and watch because we could see the beginning of a new bull market, you know, with some fundamental changes like the Clarity Act happening. could catch a lot of people off guards, but just like you said, for the time being, it looks like, you know, this this rally, it's it's good to see some positive price action.

[00:38:03]I'm glad we're not just going straight to 30K or something. Um, but I'm still watching in kind of a little suspicious here, too.

[00:38:08]>> Yeah.

[00:38:08]>> Yeah.

[00:38:09]>> Yes, exactly. But also, we could, you know, during July or maybe we could go higher even. I always look at the what I call the the traders onchain realized price. So that is it's like a realized price but for shortterm movements right now it's around 72. So you know during the bare market we have gone up and touched that level three times or two times. So when when there's a rally it goes and touches that that level uh as a as a resistance. So right now that's at around 72k. So we could see that and still be uh the market rally. Uh so yeah >> this is some good alpha. Okay. All right. I'll keep my eye out for 72K.

[00:38:52]Julio, thank you so much for being on the Milk Road Show. I always enjoy these episodes. I know our audience does too.

[00:38:56]We always learn a lot from you. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?

[00:39:00]>> Yeah. So, uh you can go to cryptoquan.com. Um it's our web platform. Uh we also have an API. Uh and you can get all you know all these metrics and more that that you uh that I have shown here. And if you want to see what I publish uh it's uh on X my handle JJC Morin.

[00:39:20]>> Thank you so much for being on the Milkard show. I'm looking forward to the next episode.

[00:39:24]>> Yep. Thank you, John.

[00:39:25]>> Thank you all for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milkro Show.

[00:39:33]Thanks for being here, everyone. Bye.

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