El Nino Watch

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Hi there, I'm meteorologist Chris Larson. I wanted to talk to you for a minute about El Nino. If you spend any time at all online, on social media, on YouTube, you've probably seen the scary headlines. Super El Nino, massive El Nino coming for the 26 27 winter season.

[00:00:19]Major effects across the world climate.

[00:00:21]Well, let's talk about it a little bit.

[00:00:23]Let's talk about the the fact that we are seeing a developing El Nino and the fact that it could or could not have big impacts on our region for Lake Tahoe, for western Nevada. We are now though under an El Nino watch. I mean, conditions are favorable and we're starting to see that trend towards an El Nino phase. So, it's called the ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

[00:00:46]Currently today, as we stand, we're in the neutral conditions. temperatures are just slightly above uh the average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific along the equator and they have to be a certain amount above that for a certain period of time to take us into the El Nino phase. So currently sea surface temperatures are again near or above average along the equatorial Pacific. Now, for the last couple of seasons, we have been in the lania phase. And that typically means cooler than average temperatures up into the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier and warmer than average temperatures from the desert southwest across Texas and into the Gulf Coast states. In terms of precipitation for Reno and Lake Tahoe, it can be right at about average or above average or slightly below average. on that dividing line, but it typically means wetter than normal into the Pacific Northwest, drier than normal into Southern California and across the southern tier. But right now, from the Climate Prediction Center, scientists there seeing the trend, saying there's an 82% chance of El Nino developing here the next couple of months. It may even happen in the next couple of weeks as they update every week those weekly trends. And then a full 96% chance of an El Nino developing for the winter season of 26 and 27. So the upcoming winter, a long ways to go there, but all signs point towards an El Nino phase. And that means warmer than normal temperatures to the north. Cooler temperatures down to the south from Southern California, desert southwest, and across the Gulf Coast states. In terms of precipitation, again, Reno Lake Tahoe is really on that dividing line.

[00:02:32]It can be a major impact. It can be a moderate impact. I'll show you some of the numbers from history, but it typically means wetter than normal into southern California, the southern desert southwest Texas, and along the Gulf Coast states. So, that's what we're looking at as we make our way uh through the summer and into winter. El Nino conditions are determined by sea surface temperatures anomalies. You take an average sea surface temperature over a number of years and you have to have a certain degree above that. So this is based on above average sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific to declare an El Nino event.

[00:03:11]This is what you need. Sea surface temperatures greater than 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive overlapping three month seasons. And that's what we're inching towards here the next couple of weeks or at least in the next month or so. So, sea surface temperatures anomalies, temperatures above average. We're right at about average along the California coast. Some warmer than average temperatures, but what we're watching is further down to the south along the equator. That's where we watch for El Nino. That's where you start to see that warm stretch of of water stretching uh from South America out into the waters of the Pacific. So that is the beginning phases. That's what we're seeing today with uh above average temperatures slightly. Not an El Nino yet, but we're inching into that direction. And just like hurricanes with a category one hurricane, category 2, three, four, five, we have intensity scale for El Nino. It's called the Oni index. Uh and this is looking at weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Nino phases. Weak is 0.5 to 0.9 degrees.

[00:04:19]above that average line. Moderate one degree to 1.4 strong 1.5 to 1.9 and very strong or what some folks term a super El Nino which is which is still very rare uh sea surface temperatures greater than two degrees above that average line and that's what we're looking at. So from the CPC and Noah, we're talking about a developing El Nino as we make our way over the next couple of weeks, next couple of months, and then it's almost a guarantee that we're in the El Nino phase as we go into the fall and into the winter as El Nino strengthens.

[00:04:56]But is it going to be a weak El Nino, a moderate, a a super El Nino? Well, indications now are that as we go from fall into winter, we've got a solid chance of seeing a very strong or what some people call a super El Nino with those sea surface temperatures more than two degrees above average along the equatorial waters of the Pacific. So, that's what we're looking at. So, exactly what does that mean for our area, for Reno, Lake Tahoe, for western Nevada? Well, it can mean a variety of things. Let's look back historically at modern super El Ninos and there are three key ones. 201516 had a peak on only index of 2.6. So well above that twoderee average. Now this ended up being sort of just an average snow year for the Sierra. Wasn't great, wasn't terrible. We were between 95 and 100%. But then you look historically at the other 1997, 1982, and 83. Those were massive snow years for the Sierra. The 1997 Super El Nino came on the heels of the flood of January 97, the year before that flooded downtown Reno and the Sparks area. One of the most devastating floods that Reno has seen, one of the at least the top four floods that Reno has seen. And then you had massive amounts of snow in 82 and 83. So that's what we're looking at. you know, we sit on that dividing line, but certainly all indications are that as we work our way towards fall, fall of 2026 and into the winter of 26 27 that we are looking at what may be a very strong El Nino coming our way. Does that mean an average year for snow in Lake Tahoe uh and precipitation or does it mean a gang buster year? That is yet to be seen. But what it typically means though is you get warm atmospheric river storms that plow that southern branch of the jetream from central California down into Southern California. That is a look at El Nino and where we stand today. We'll keep you posted as we work our way into the summer, fall, and winter. Have a great day. I'll see you again soon.