Long-term interest rates are determined by bond market supply and demand, where investors demand higher compensation for perceived inflation risk; therefore, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, borrowing costs only fall if investors believe inflation is decreasing, as the market prices in future policy expectations based on inflation trends.
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Kevin Worsh Will Raise Interest Rates, Not Lower Them #Shorts本站添加:
actually impact your daily life. I'm talking savings accounts, mortgage rates, auto loans, investments, and so on, are impacted by something entirely different. The bond market. And right now, that bond market is in shambles.
Why? Well, these long-term rates are completely dictated by market supply and demand. And if investors think there's going to be more inflation and more volatility in the future, they demand higher compensation up front for the additional risk. This means even if the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates tomorrow, your borrowing costs only fall if long-term investors believe that inflation is going down. And right now, they do not. In fact, as of right now, the market's beginning to price in the likelihood that Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates as his first policy move. Mainly because inflation's growing out of control. The stock market is
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