110,000 Russian Troops SURROUNDED — Eastern Front Collapse Is INEVITABLE | Ben Hodges

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Something is happening right now on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. And the numbers do not lie.

[00:00:07]1560 Russian soldiers eliminated in a single day. 291 combat engagements recorded in 24 hours. And in the south, a Ukrainian push so unexpected and so ferocious that it has erased over 470 square kilometers of Russian gains and left Moscow's entire 2026 campaign plan in ruins. This is not the war you thought you understood. What is unfolding right now today on May 31st, 2026, is something that military analysts did not predict at the start of this year. Stay with me because what happens in the next few weeks could change the course of this conflict forever. Let's start with the raw reality of what the battlefield looks like this morning. The general staff of Ukraine published its update at 8 in the morning, and the headline figure is staggering. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24th, 2022, total Russian combat losses have now reached approximately 1,364,000 personnel. Think about that number for a moment. Over a million human beings removed from the battlefield dead, wounded, or captured by a country that Western analysts once expected to fold within days. And in just the past 24 hours, another 1,560 Russian troops were eliminated. Not in some massive set peace battle, not in a single catastrophic engagement.

[00:01:32]Steadily, methodically, day by day, the Ukrainian defense machine has been grinding down one of the largest armies on Earth. And now something has shifted.

[00:01:42]Over the past four weeks, from April 28th through May 26th of this year, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War. To put that in perspective, that is the total land area of Nantucket Island gone reversed in one month. And in just the final week of that period, from May 19th to May 26th, Russia lost 38 square miles in a single 7-day stretch. That is the largest weekly territorial reversal Russia has experienced in all of 2026. And then two days ago on May 29th, fresh Ukrainian counterattack activity was confirmed in eastern Denny Propatrok and western Daetsk oblasts with the village of Nova Salivka liberated and new pressure applied across multiple sectors simultaneously. Something has changed and nobody in Moscow is saying publicly what it is. To understand why this matters so deeply, you have to go back to February. In February of 2026, something remarkable happened. Ukrainian air assault and assault forces led by the 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades of the 7th Air Assault Corps exploited a critical vulnerability in Russian command and control. When Starlink satellite communications were temporarily disrupted by Russian electronic warfare efforts, the disruption backfired. Russian units that depended on those same commercial frequencies and that had adapted their own coordination protocols around the digital battlefield suddenly found themselves operating blind. Ukrainian commanders recognized the window. They moved. They pushed forward along a wide front across eastern Zaparisia and into Nippropetk oblast. and within one week they had achieved the largest single territorial gain Ukraine had recorded since June of 2023. President Zalinski confirmed that 300 square kilmters had been recaptured in those first days alone. And the operation kept going. By March 10th, Major General Alexander Kareno, head of the main operational directorate of Ukraine's general staff, reported that total liberated territory had exceeded 400 km. Ukrainian forces had effectively reclaimed nearly the entire Nippropatrof region that had been under Russian occupation. By March 27th, the number had climbed to 470 square kilm and the casualty toll imposed on Russian forces during the counteroffensive had exceeded 11,000 invaders neutralized. These are not small numbers. These are the numbers of an operation that disrupted and dismantled Russia's entire plan for the spring of 2026. But here is what you need to understand about that operation that most coverage has missed entirely.

[00:04:33]It was not just about reclaiming territory. The strategic logic behind what Ukrainian commanders were executing was far deeper. The goal was to expel Russian forces from Nippropatrok Oblast and simultaneously destroy Russia's capacity to launch its own planned spring offensive because Russia had one.

[00:04:52]Moscow had been building toward a major push in 2026, and the intelligence picture showed it clearly. Russia was mobilizing between 40,000 and 43,000 new troops every single month. They were stockpiling equipment. They were repositioning forces. The spring of 2026 was supposed to be Russia's moment to shift the momentum. Instead, Ukraine hit first. And it worked. Here is why it worked in a way that goes beyond the battlefield optics. Commander-in-Chief Alexander Cerski stated in March that Russian battlefield losses had exceeded the number of new recruits for three consecutive months. Read that slowly.

[00:05:31]Russia is losing more soldiers than it can replace every single month. For 3 months running, even at a mobilization rate of 40,000 plus per month, the attrition is outpacing the replenishment. Zalinsky put the number plainly. Russia is losing up to 45,000 troops every four weeks when you account for combat deaths, serious wounds, and desertions. The math is brutal and it runs in one direction. And now the drone war has opened a front that Russia has no answer for. Ukrainian long range drone operations have systematically gone after the economic infrastructure that funds the entire Russian war machine. In late March and early April 2026, Ukraine conducted a sustained campaign against Russia's Baltic oil export hubs at Luga and Primorsque.

[00:06:19]Strikes hit those terminals at least five times in 10 days. The result, according to Bloomberg, was that flows through those two critical ports dropped to roughly onethird of normal weekly levels. Russia's oil income fell by more than $1 billion. And according to an April 7th assessment by the New York Times, Ukrainian drone and sea drone campaigns have now damaged or destroyed approximately 20% of Russia's total refining capacity since early 2024. Oil industry sources estimated that in April 2026 alone, Russia was forced to reduce oil production by somewhere between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day from first quarter levels. That is the sharpest monthly production drop Russia has suffered since the invasion began.

[00:07:07]The economic dimension of this war is no longer a secondary story. It is central to everything. Now, let us bring it back to what is happening in the east right now because the Kark and Daetsk fronts are not standing still while the southern operation unfolds. Yesterday, May 30th, the Ukrainian general staff confirmed 291 combat engagements across the entire front. Russian forces carried out one missile strike using seven missiles. They launched 91 air strikes.

[00:07:34]They dropped 277 guided aerial bombs.

[00:07:38]They deployed 8,549 kamicazi drones. And they conducted 2,87 separate attacks on populated areas and Ukrainian military positions, 53 of which used multiple launch rocket systems. Those are the numbers from a single day from the Russian side. And yet, despite that overwhelming volume of firepower, the territorial picture has been moving against Moscow for four consecutive weeks. In the Kark of direction, the front has settled into a dual axis pressure campaign that Ukrainian defenders have largely contained. The northern sector runs from Vauvchans through Lipy, where Russian held territory extends between 5 and 15 km south of the Russian border.

[00:08:23]Ukrainian positions are holding roughly parallel to that line. Slow Russian attempts to expand their salient have been absorbed and checked. The eastern sector runs along the Kian corridor where Russian forces have maintained pressure on the Oscll river line making incremental advances toward Kupansk from Dvorich and Cucherivka. Overall of 2024 and 2025 that push advanced approximately 5 to 10 km total. The city of Kupansk itself remains under Ukrainian control, though supply routes into the city are under increasing pressure, and Ukrainian defensive planning has specifically accounted for the theoretical encirclement risk that would emerge if Russian forces could link up their Vauvchans and Kansk advances simultaneously. So far, that linkup has not happened. In the Zaparisia region, the past 24 hours saw Russian forces carry out 976 separate attacks on 55 settlements. Two people were killed and seven injured in strikes on the regional center. That intensity of bombardment reflects a Russian force that is probing constantly for weaknesses, testing Ukrainian defensive depth, looking for the seam that will let them push through. But the Ukrainian southern counteroffensive has now imposed a flanking reality on Russian forces in that sector that did not exist at the start of the year. The operational situation for Russian units in the Julipole and Ollexandrik sectors has been complicated by Ukrainian advances to their west and northwest tying down units that Moscow had planned to use offensively. And then there is Pocross. The city of Pocross in the Daetsk region remains one of the most critical logistical nodes on the entire eastern front and it has been under pressure for months. But something interesting happened when the southern counter offensive began. General Kareno noted in March that the number of Russian attacks around Pocrosk and Mnor had actually decreased as Russian forces were redirected toward the Olexandrek axis to respond to Ukraine's push.

[00:10:30]Ukraine's offensive pressure in the south was pulling Russian combat power away from the east. That is operational linkage. That is the kind of battlefield synergy that does not happen by accident. It is the product of planning, of coordination, of an understanding of how to use limited resources against an adversary whose command structure is increasingly struggling to respond on multiple axes simultaneously. And that command struggle is real. Ukrainian military analyst and brigade commander Philatov stated publicly that he understands commander Cerski's operational plan in the south. If it succeeds and the gain since February suggest it is succeeding, Ukraine achieves two objectives at once. First, the full liberation of Dipropatrovsk oblast. Second, the stabilization of the front near Zaparisia city, which sits within potential Russian artillery range and whose security matters both militarily and symbolically. Russian military command, according to Ukrainian military analyst Kevluk, now faces a far more complicated operational situation than it did at the start of 2026.

[00:11:37]Headquarters in Moscow must rapidly adapt to communication disruptions, to unexpected Ukrainian pressure on the southern axis, and to the reality that the consolidation of positions reached in autumn 2025 is no longer possible under the current tempo of Ukrainian operations. Now, here is what nobody is talking about enough, but should be.

[00:11:59]Zalinski has ordered preparations for another two to three years of war. That is not a statement of pessimism. That is a statement of strategic clarity.

[00:12:08]Ukraine is not betting on a quick collapse or a sudden breakthrough.

[00:12:12]Ukraine is building the systems, the logistics, the drone production capacity, the trained personnel pipelines that will sustain a long war at higher and higher operational tempo.

[00:12:22]And that matters because the Russian reserve equation is not improving.

[00:12:27]Russia is recruiting. Russia is mobilizing. But as Cerski confirmed, for three months running, the losses have exceeded the arrivals. That trend does not reverse overnight. It reverses only if Russia makes a fundamental change in how it is prosecuting this war. And there is no sign that such a change is coming. The drone dimension of this conflict has reached a scale that would have seemed impossible to contemplate 2 years ago. In the past 24 hours alone, Russian forces deployed 8,549 kamicazi drones against Ukrainian positions and settlements. That is not a typo. 8 and a half thousand drones in one day from the Russian side, and Ukraine is still responding. Ukrainian long range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have continued through May. Ukrainian drone pilot training centers have become priority targets on both sides. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone pilot training center in Sn in the Daetsk region, killing 65 Russian servicemen in that one strike.

[00:13:29]The drone war is not a sideshow. It is the central engine of attrition in 2026, and Ukraine has been investing in that engine more strategically than any outside assessment fully credited. What does NATO make of all of this? The alliance is watching the battlefield shifts with a combination of cautious optimism and deep strategic calculation.

[00:13:50]The southern counteroffensive demonstrated what trained, welle equipped Ukrainian forces can accomplish when they identify and exploit a genuine operational opportunity. That demonstration matters for the ongoing debate within NATO capitals about the pace and scale of continued military support. The arguments being made in Brussels, in Berlin, in Warsaw, and in Washington have all been recalibrated by what happened in February. Ukraine did not just reclaim territory. Ukraine proved that Russian forces can be surprised, can be overextended, and can be forced into reactive mode rather than offensive mode. That proof of concept matters enormously for the next phase of the conflict. And yet, nobody should allow optimism to cloud the operational reality on the ground. This morning, Russian forces are still attacking across the entire front. The volume of firepower Russia is generating is staggering. 976 attacks in the Zaparisia region alone in 24 hours. 291 combat engagements across all sectors. Russian guided aerial bombs, shahad drones, ballistic missiles, glide bombs, multiple rocket systems. The pressure is constant and it is enormous. Ukrainian defenders are absorbing it, but the cost is real.

[00:15:06]Ukrainian losses over the past 24 hours reached approximately 1,320 troops according to Russian claims.

[00:15:15]Figures that Ukraine does not independently confirm but that reflect the grinding intensity of what is happening. The week of May 12th through 19th saw Russia lose 29 square miles.

[00:15:27]The week of May 19th through 26th saw Russia lose 38 square miles. That acceleration matters. It suggests that the operational gains Ukraine made in February and March have not stalled into a new static line. They are continuing to generate battlefield consequences.

[00:15:44]The units Ukraine disrupted in the south have not fully reconstituted. The logistical corridors Russia was building for its planned spring offensive have not been repaired. and the psychological reality inside Russian formations that have lost ground, that have watched supply routes narrowed, that have seen their expected offensive role turned into a defensive scramble, that reality is harder to measure but impossible to ignore. The next 72 hours on the Daetsk and Zaparisia fronts will tell us something important. The fresh Ukrainian counterattack activity confirmed on May 29th in eastern Nepropatrovsk and western Daetsk is either the beginning of a new operational push or a probing effort designed to fix Russian forces and prevent consolidation. Ukrainian commanders will know which Russian commanders will be trying to figure it out. And the villages being contested right now along that line, settlements whose names most viewers cannot pronounce, are the places where the actual future of this conflict is being decided by soldiers who did not ask to be there but who are there regardless.

[00:16:50]1,364,000 Russian casualties. 470 km reclaimed in the south. 100 square miles of net Russian territorial loss in 4 weeks. 38 square miles in the last week alone.

[00:17:05]Russia losing more troops than it recruits for three consecutive months.

[00:17:09]20% of Russian refining capacity destroyed. 8 12,000 Russian drones deployed in a single day. And still the line is moving the wrong way for Moscow.

[00:17:20]This is where the war stands today. Not at a tipping point, not at a sudden collapse, but at a slow, grinding, mathematically unsustainable trajectory for Russia and a Ukrainian defense structure that has now demonstrated it cannot only hold but push. Watch what happens on the southern axis in the next week. Watch whether the pressure around Nova expands or contracts. Watch whether Russia can redirect forces quickly enough to stabilize a southern front that was not supposed to need stabilizing this spring. Because what happens there in the coming days will shape the entire second half of 2026.

[00:17:57]And we will be here every step of the way to break it down for you as it happens.