Live Coverage Of The July 21, 2026 Tornado Outbreak

[00:04:43]usual places.

[00:04:52]Okay, we are live and uh well, we skipped last Wednesday and now we've gotten two new ones, right? Uh so we had the severe threat on uh Saturday that uh we were watching for the potential for tornadoes, didn't verify. This time we actually got the tornadoes and um they've already been verified. We've already seen them. So we're going live and I'm going to show you when I'm expecting this threat to end. It's going to be before the watch actually expires.

[00:05:23]So, let me show you the details. Uh, just so we know and just so everyone understands. Uh, of course, we have our live chat here, premium live chat. This is where I'll answer all the questions.

[00:05:35]Also, check out on social media on YouTube X. I think Facebook might be working, who knows these days. Uh, and also on Twitch. Uh so definitely check out those areas along with you know the premium uh chat room and of course if we have any client requests or whatever that might like some client calls might come in I'll put it on I'll put a um screen up and we'll take a pause until I get done with the phone calls because we don't want to do that on public because that's that's a no no.

[00:06:09]So, uh, we'll go over everything. And first things first, here is our thunderstorm threat. We've seen plenty of severe thunderstorms, but we've seen an outbreak of tornado warnings over northern New Jersey. Now, you might be wondering, hey, why are we seeing all these tornado warnings in this area? And the reason why is that the warm front is literally right here. So when we take a skew t a sounding of this area here, you could see the winds here. You see this? This is a very strong vertical wind shear here going from the southeast to the south to the southwest and then up to the west here. So when you have winds like this in a cyclonic circulation, this enhances the potential for tornadoes. Now for our neck of the woods, usually a southeasterly wind is a stable wind. Okay. But because of the rest of the atmosphere is pretty much featuring the southerntherly wind, we really don't get that uh marine air mass influence in northern New Jersey this time. What you can see here is that plenty of the atmosphere has become saturated, but we have these these dry pockets here that support the potential for downburst wind gusts. Of course, the tornadoes and of course the cape values have been well pretty high, well over 2,000 jewels per kilogram. So, we have the warm front here.

[00:07:32]Then we step back and you can see other thunderstorms here. Now, we're going to be watching this area here as we go on through the evening. But when does this threat end here? See this right here?

[00:07:46]This is after the prefrontal trough. In fact, let me show you the observations.

[00:07:51]We'll go to 10 meters and surface.

[00:07:55]And your warm front is here. lifting northward right along where we've seen those severe thunderstorms. This is the prefrontal trough here and back here is the cold front. So this trough here has ignited several thunderstorms. It also uh basically set up what we call stratform rain. So when we take a look at the radar and then go look at the skew t here for these areas, you could see as it's generating a more stable environment. the sin value is is a little bit stronger. You're getting more of a rain signal here rather than a thunderstorm signal. And look at the winds. They all become uniform. So you lose your tornado threat, you lose your your severe threat potential, but you have very heavy rainfall potential. So this is basically where our watch really comes to an end. Now, if this was igniting, let's say in the morning hours, let's say like 8:00 a.m., then what we would say is that this comes through and then this feature, this area would be at threat for severe weather because we have our cold front here. But this whole threat, this whole area here doesn't reach us until basically towards midnight. And by then, the severe threat is pretty much significantly reduced. We don't have any instability, the vertical windshare declines. So, pretty much now through roughly 6 pm, we're at the threat here for some severe thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes. And you can see, let me zoom in here on a sounding, let's say, towards southern New Jersey here.

[00:09:36]There is our vertical wind shear perfectly from the south to the west.

[00:09:41]Perfect setup here. Uh, set up for definitely for severe thunderstorms. Our cape value is through the roof. 3,348 jewels per kilogram. Uh, and it's all set up here. Your downburst wind gusts 650, precipitable water values 2.15.

[00:09:58]Now, what that means is that there's a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. So, this opens up the potential for intense heavy rainfall, uh, which can lead to flash flooding, which we've already seen in several locations along the warm front here with plenty of lifting. We've had rainfall rates pushing 2, 3, 4 in already today. And uh don't be surprised we see that again around southeastern Pennsylvania and uh central and southern New Jersey and the New York City metro.

[00:10:28]So here's our warmfront and you can see the thunderstorms here. Let's zoom in on this and let's pull up the radar here.

[00:10:36]We'll do New York first.

[00:10:39]So, let me just go and find that New York radar real fast.

[00:10:45]They have so many radars on this app, which by the way is Weatherfront that uh sometimes it can be a little overwhelming looking at all the radar options that you have, but uh it's very very well put together. I will say that.

[00:10:58]Okay, so here's Upton, should I say, and you could see the thunderstorm potential obviously, but let's take a look at the velocity here. Look at this.

[00:11:13]And we could see that tornado signal that was showing up around West Codwell.

[00:11:19]Um, again, very, very strong, very impressive. And now it's starting to weaken. So that influence as it's heading towards Patterson and Clifton in this area here is slowly starting to weaken. Doesn't look like it's pulsing back. So that's certainly some good news. But still a threat of a tornado still marching through this region heading towards Garfield. So anyone in this area here just south of Patterson towards Clifton, Garfield, Hackin Sack, you got to be just aware that hey tornado potential is there.

[00:11:54]We have the circulation. It's very clear. It was very strong. I mean, again, this is something that we typically see this type of strong signal that we typically see more towards the planes. So, it's pretty impressive that we've seen this type of signal. And with it, again, a lot of lightning, which is typical with with high precipitable water values. Uh, very heavy rainfall.

[00:12:15]Haven't seen a lot of reports of hail just yet. But you could see here uh we have video sent in of tornado underground sent for driving range in Paripony uh time estimated from the radar and of course we still also have our flash flood warning in this area as these thunderstorms have trained over the region and this is going to be passing to north of Manhattan. So again those of you in New York City you might actually see if you look out towards New Jersey this thunderstorm. Don't be surprised to see a tornado out of it. I mean, that's what a summer, right?

[00:12:52]We've had everything. We've had smoke, we've had rain. The only thing we haven't had is enough hail to make it look like snow, but hopefully we never have to deal with that.

[00:13:03]Zoomed out a little bit. You see, there's no other signs here of anything that type of intensity showing up um in in any of the signals here. Okay. So, it's pretty much quiet for the rest of this thunderstorm complex. Now, let's jump to the Philadelphia radar because what we want to do is take a look and see if there's anything popping off around southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. And thus far, we don't see any signals. So, that's great. That is some great news here. Uh the thunderstorms though are getting more intense. just not seeing any type of circulation just yet. But we probably have to watch out for these cells. If we're going to see tornado again, it's going to come out of these cells here as we move on through the afternoon and evening hours. Uh again, I would not expect much as far as tornado threats for New England, for Connecticut. Connecticut, we're more concerned about the heavy rainfall potential. uh Hudson River Valley, not as much vertical wind shear. Now, what has caused this whole event? Well, first of all, in fact, let me step back here.

[00:14:23]The reason why we're seeing a better tornado threat out of all this is because of all the divergence and dluence that is setting up here at 250 millibars. So, what this does is it allows for a lot of rising motion. So even though we had a lot of ground clutter uh in other words a lot of low clouds like this, this would typically uh limit your thunderstorm potential that this is what we had earlier this morning. Uh we have some gradual clearing as we moved on through the rest of the of the afternoon in some spots, but this environment typically doesn't support a lot of of convective in uh inhibition.

[00:15:05]But because of this divergence and defluence, which we were pointing out this morning in the premium discussions, this right here allows for a lot of rising motion. And that rising motion basically broke any cap that we had on the atmosphere.

[00:15:21]Now, you combine that with the potential for a vertical wind setting up here from 850 millibars and at the surface.

[00:15:33]and you open up the potential for a lot of bulk windshar. So that is why we're dealing with this environment here. Uh you can also see the parameters here for tornadoes remains pretty well again right where we're seeing all the tornado warnings right now and then more potential down towards southern New Jersey and most likely towards southeastern Pennsylvania. So we have all of the keys there, all the potential there. This is what we're going to be watching for as we move on for the next couple of hours. And then once this area reaches us, that pretty much puts an end to the severe threat. So once this reaches, let's say, uh, southeastern Pennsylvania, then like let's say it reaches Lancaster, then you're done. You have the coldront that follows, still the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms, but you lose the severe threat.

[00:16:27]So with that analysis and we'll be following these thunderstorms as we go on through the afternoon.

[00:16:34]Let's answer some questions from uh premium members here.

[00:16:40]And I also have X up in case anyone wants to share any observations.

[00:16:45]Uh which has you guys are doing an outstanding job here. Uh this one right here, some very heavy rainfall.

[00:16:58]So that's very cool. But let's see here.

[00:17:01]So let's thunderstorms.

[00:17:05]Is Jersey City in trouble? Definitely for the potential for thunderstorms uh and heavy rainfall. I think that the tornado threat is going to pass through north of Jersey City for right now.

[00:17:16]Uh it's not nonsense. The reason why we have a tornado watch for New York City is that you're close enough to the warm front to allow for that vertical windshield here. Let me show you what that means here. So, let's zoom into Manhattan here.

[00:17:34]Very nicely done, by the way, with all the streets and everything. But let's take a look at the sounding of Manhattan >> most likely. Um, you see this wind alignment here from the southeast to the southwest and the west? This is why you have a tornado watch in Manhattan. Now, why don't you have it in Long Island?

[00:17:57]Well, let's go jump to Brentwood.

[00:18:01]And we generate that sounding. And what you have here is a much more stable environment. Yes, you have winds that are veering, definitely vertical wind shear, but this is a much more stable environment and so your thunderstorms are less likely to support that that base. The base would be much higher. So that's why you're seeing what you're seeing with New York City and Queens uh featuring that tornado warning. Now, another thing to also note here is that as this thunderstorm complex is dropping through, notice you're starting to get showers and thunderstorms breaking out around Manhattan Island, around uh northeastern New Jersey as this comes through. This is all your outflow boundaries interacting with all the other boundaries like the Seabbze effect. So, that is all combined with the urban heat effect. you're getting all these clashes of boundaries in the micro scale and mess scale uh down to literally street level. So, this is fascinating to watch. You could see the cells, let's zoom in on this. You can see the cells lining up with the urban heat island effect lining right up and forming. And you can see that here around northeast New Jersey, around Karnney and and Newark, that whole alignment. So, you're about to get some very heavy rainfall. Do not be surprised if there is some flash flooding around the Bronx, around Manhattan, Union City, uh expanding down towards Newark, Elizabeth, Bayon. Watch this whole area just kind of light up with very heavy rainfall. While this severe cluster in this potential tornado area, which we continue to feature here, still very nicely featured. It's more broad though, so with it being more broad, it's more likely to probably not reach the ground.

[00:19:48]Okay. So, it's weakening, but the circulation's still there with the thunderstorm, but we're seeing an expansion of the potential for heavy rainfall here right on the warmfront boundary.

[00:20:04]Very impressive stuff. Very, very impressive.

[00:20:08]Uh, we're seeing some people on YouTube acting up a bit. Don't tick off my wife.

[00:20:13]She will boo you.

[00:20:17]you know, summer vacation. Children are unsupervised.

[00:20:20]>> Yeah. Let's see here.

[00:20:25]So, that's where we're at. And of course, I just want to say hi to everyone that is on Twitch right now.

[00:20:31]Thank you for watching. Of course, on YouTube and on X. Um, getting a lot of requests here on X here. Um, rotation near Morristown.

[00:20:44]Uh let's see here.

[00:20:48]That's what we were looking at beforehand. That has now cleared.

[00:20:53]Right now that the focus is towards northern New Jersey. But as we go on through the evening, we have to watch out for all these individual storms. We have one severe storm that's approaching Westchester right in here in Pennsylvania.

[00:21:09]Okay, so this one looks pretty impressive. This is the type of storm here that could instigate the potential for tornadoes. Um, but we don't we're not seeing anything just yet.

[00:21:22]Keeping an eye on this storm. This one might be something to watch here. We're starting to get just a little bit. It's not It's not strong enough yet. It's faint, but it is starting to get a little bit more red here. A little bit more sign maybe of a circulation here.

[00:21:38]We've really have to watch out for this one around Westchester as it's approaching the Philadelphia metro. Keep an eye on this storm.

[00:21:47]It even has a little bit of that look too, a little bit structure.

[00:21:54]So, zoom out a little bit. This these storms that are clustering, these are the storms we're going to have to watch out for for tornado development. And don't be surprised as this is approaching that we start to see other boundaries start to ignite. You could start to see some of these boundaries here setting up right along the coast.

[00:22:14]Some of that some of that seabbze gradient here. You can see the alignment uh of some of these showers here. You can see other outflow boundaries here playing out and this storm coming in.

[00:22:26]All these boundaries are going to interact making for a very interesting period for us for this evening. And then again, this is the kill zone. This right here basically ends the severe threat because this steady heavy rainfall that's approaching basically kills off the instability in the atmosphere and shuts down the thunderstorm development. Now, like I said, this isn't um this isn't some this isn't a rule that's always 100%. If this was all happening this morning and then this came through, let's say around 2:00, you still have 3 4 5:00 in the afternoon to dabilize the atmosphere after this leaves. But because this is coming through in the evening hours, by the time that the cold front influence comes through around midnight, the thunderstorm potential is pretty much killed at that point. So that's why this right here is going to be the marker of ending our severe threat as this is marching towards the east.

[00:23:30]Let's see here. We got some more signals here.

[00:23:36]Very very very impressive structure for this time. And again here's more thunderstorms starting to fire here around new New York right right on the border of Queens here. just getting ready to fire, interacting with this thunderstorm cluster as the warmf frontont lifts northward.

[00:23:55]I'm just waiting to see whether or not we actually get a tornado warning out of this one. Just passing to the south of Coatsville.

[00:24:08]Keep an eye on this area right here, south of Coltsville, approaching to the north of Kenneth Square.

[00:24:18]Zoom in a little bit more.

[00:24:23]Very faint signal trying to develop here, but you can start to see it. It's very faint. We don't have a full circulation yet, but if I was going to pick the next storm to produce a potential tornado, it'd probably be in this cluster. Not seeing it just yet in this one. But, you know, there is potential here. There is definitely some potential here with these two cells. And that's what we're going to be watching for. And that's what we continue to watch for as our thunderstorms continue to blossom. Nothing yet in central and southern New Jersey, but the environment is prime. See the soundings here for this.

[00:25:05]We have cape values through the roof, 3,390 jewels per kilogram. We have winds veering. So, this is certainly supportive for the potential for maybe an F-Zero tornado. Uh, this right here, again, this is in South Central New Jersey. This signal right here is very strongly supportive for downburst wind gusts because what we're doing is that we're taking all this deep moisture again precipal water values 2.15 in and we're throwing it into this drier colder atmospheric environment and when that happens you are allowing for condensation in that that colder denser air to slam door down towards the surface. So don't be surprised when you get some bow echo showing up uh in this environment as well as these thunderstorms consolidate into one line.

[00:25:56]Now when do we break out of this tornado threat and moves more towards a straight line wind threat? When we start to see this line consolidate into one solid line and we lose the independent cells, then we start to see a decline in the tornado threat and an increase in the straight line wind threat. Uh right now we're kind of in between that threat right now. We're not there yet.

[00:26:26]Let me jump to here.

[00:26:31]Not high. NWS indicated a train light spir tornado at Route 80 and 206 in Morris County. Yep, that's true. Uh starting to rain upper Manhattan Pocono 75°.

[00:26:43]Uh, haven't seen it yet, but apparently there's a video in Morristown. I saw the video, too. I shared it on the feed. A flash flood warning Laguia and Manhattan. Perfect. Uh, flooding also an issue. The route the tornado warrant storm two had spots of two to three inches. Back in Bogat. Well, let's see.

[00:27:05]We got more questions here. Uh, rain for storms across the river in my neighborhood. I'm in Patterson. How's it looking? Very stormy. Very stormy in Patterson. Some came out at a brief after a brief shower. It could be cloudy. Dawson in Union County around 4:30 to 7 p.m. Uh, basically we're looking at waves of showers and thunderstorms from 4:30 to 7. In fact, let's take a look at the latest HRR guidance here. Pull this, refresh this, and just take a look.

[00:27:43]And you could see during the evening rush hour, lines of thunderstorms, and then we kind of get this break. And by the time we get our next wave of thunderstorms, which is with our cold front, by that time we're heading towards midnight and the primary threat will be very heavy rainfall. And it looks like there's more of a focus down towards the Washington DC metro with very heavy rainfall. And also notice up here towards the St. Lawrence River Valley, which kind of robs us of our thunderstorms, which I've been warning about as being a threat. So I would say up till about 6:30, we got to really keep an eye on this.

[00:28:26]And then after that, the focus is still present for thunderstorms, but I think we see a decline in the intensity and more of a focus shifting down towards Washington DC with heavy rainfall and up towards Sarinac Lake with the upper level low.

[00:28:45]But unfortunately, evening rush hour is not looking pretty at all. Using the weather tap radar here. Just want to refresh this here for a second.

[00:28:55]And you could see what I was talking about. Warm front lifting northward just to the south of the warm front is where you get a lot of your veering winds. And then here's your prefrontal trough back here. Now you see this high right here.

[00:29:09]This high is due to rain cooled air. Now cooler air is denser. So the reason why you have this high showing up on the map is that this is raincooled dense air, stable air. This is why after this the thunderstorm threat for us in terms of severe potential comes to an end because you get this steady rainfall and this cool pool at the surface. When you have a cold pool in the mid and upper levels that enhances your severe thunderstorm threat because you can create downburst wind gust turning thunderstorms rapidly rising cumulus clouds. when you have a raincooled uh surface environment that stabilizes because stops rising motion and just leads to heavy rainfall. So that's what this signal is. And then here's your coldfront back here that is trying to catch up to all this and clears it out for tomorrow with additional lingering showers tomorrow morning and maybe even into tomorrow afternoon, but nothing like what we're seeing now.

[00:30:13]So that's a that's basically where we're at right now in this event where now we're just watching to see well hold it.

[00:30:20]We might actually be getting indications of a large lowering due two miles west of my location with a slowly but defined area rotation.

[00:30:34]Just got that coming in around Quakerville. So let's take a look at this thunderstorm here. Again, same area. We're seeing one potential circulation trying to get itself organized. Here's a second circulation right here that that was uh reporting the lowering that is showing up.

[00:30:54]There it is. There it is starting to take shape.

[00:30:59]So, we're starting to see potential for two uh potential rotations.

[00:31:04]We'll see if they get to the point where we actually get to a tornado warning on it, but certainly it's pretty close.

[00:31:15]So, we have one storm here that's kind of merging with this storm. And we have this storm here. And so, when you're going through this merging process, this is when we start to see that potential for those tornadoes. And look at the frequent lightning with this. Plenty of lightning, plenty of strong downburst wind gust with it. Uh very impressive setup here.

[00:31:38]This uh severe thunderstorm warning, it's featuring wind gusts 60 miles per hour.

[00:31:44]So certainly uh plenty of potential there for uh maybe even some hail, potentially a tornado showing up out of this.

[00:31:54]The tornado warning for northern New Jersey is pretty much done. And you can see the circulation is pretty much gone at this point. It has completely faded apart. So now we're just dealing with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding here.

[00:32:13]And when we take a look at the hourly rainfall rates, that's that's starting to pile up here.

[00:32:21]Talking about one and a half storm accumulation thus far. Very West. Look, I mean, look at Westwood. Holy smokes.

[00:32:29]You're talking about five, six inches of rain setting up in northern New Jersey right around Yoner to north of Yoners up towards White Plains.

[00:32:39]So there's definitely potential here for some flooding out of this.

[00:32:45]So that's our one thunderstorm cluster and then we have additional down here.

[00:32:53]See if we have any observations and we have plenty. Let's see what we got here.

[00:33:04]Shelf cloud. Wow, that's beautiful.

[00:33:08]That's a great shot. Look at that, man.

[00:33:11]That gives me memories of when I was in Oklahoma. That's a beautiful thing. Let me make sure I share that. That's from uh Tony Tori, should I say?

[00:33:26]And here we have another one from Tori.

[00:33:29]Uh view from the West Side Highway.

[00:33:36]Classic.

[00:33:38]Very classic. Dark for booding trouble.

[00:33:43]And then here's a great depiction of the uh heavy rainfall.

[00:33:50]Let's zoom in on this. Look at that.

[00:33:53]Now, when you're stuck in a storm like this, I strongly suggest that if you're having a difficult time seeing, please pull over uh and wait for the storm to pass. And definitely do not try to drive through any submerged roadways as uh that could be a lot of trouble for you.

[00:34:22]Um, it's night time here now. Uh, let's see here. New York Harbor Special Marine, Queens. You're It's coming in Queens.

[00:34:32]Don't worry. We all I think the worst of this is going to pass to the north of Queens, but don't be surprised to get some heavier downpours here. Here's your next round coming through northern New Jersey. And then here's the final round back here.

[00:34:50]So, you have like basically one, two, three, and then we're done.

[00:34:57]And you know one thing's for sure, this is all moving pretty quickly at a pretty steady pace. Um, so that's definitely uh very active, very fast moving, very very progressive moving. So that's certainly good that we're not seeing any of these thunderstorms train for too long.

[00:35:20]Just checking to see what we got on X located Danville, New Jersey. Danville, New Jersey. At one point we were getting 5.1 in per hour. Holy smokes.

[00:35:32]Um, sun keeps coming out in central New Jersey. Uh, basically what that means is that the atmosphere remains uh unstable in central New Jersey.

[00:35:46]Um, so far Jersey Shore is itself is being spared, but we still got to get through that line that's coming through.

[00:35:55]Uh, and the way that we tell a tornado on on the radar, we're looking at the vert at the winds. When we see winds coming in at different directions, right, it can create a circulation. So, basically, it's when you see Christmas colors. When you see red and green together next to each other, that's a sign of a circulation.

[00:36:17]And I see that Ford is here. Hello, Ford. How you doing on Twitch?

[00:36:26]YouTube.

[00:36:27]>> Yeah. And see, let me jump to YouTube as well. A lot going on here. Let me check out see if there's anything. Uh Yoner's White Plains right now. I'm more concerned about heavy rainfall. Uh I definitely think that thunderstorms make it to Philadelphia. It's right on the doorstep. Uh heavy rain, frequent lightning, which with a severe warn storm, but winds are weak in my area. The reason why you're in the heavy rainfall shaft, so you're out, you're outside of the strong winds, usually comes out out ahead of the storm.

[00:37:04]Can confirm a tornado?

[00:37:07]So far, yeah, the National Weather Service is containing it right now. Mammoth County is in a tornado risk.

[00:37:19]And so everything else is pretty much straightforward.

[00:37:25]Will that second storm that is trailing southwest of the tornado producing cell come through northern union? Uh let's take a look.

[00:37:34]And looks like it uh it'll clip. It looks like it's expanding. And then this cell, this is coming in more showers. Um watch out for this cell around Raritin.

[00:37:47]This is starting to get fired up again.

[00:37:49]That could be a threat heading towards, let's say, Edison and maybe Staten Island. So, definitely watch out for this Raritton cell.

[00:38:01]And again, we haven't gotten a tornado warning yet, but we certainly have had indications of potential circulation.

[00:38:10]So, let me just go back here. You see how we don't have any more greens anymore, whereas beforehand we had the reds and the greens next to it. Uh could be trying to redevelop out here around Yoners. Don't be surprised if you get some observations of lowering of the clouds around Yoners. See that that signal right there? That could be something worth watching.

[00:38:38]and further south.

[00:38:41]We're waiting to see if we get any actual There's this signal here that they were talking about. You see how they made this observation? That's with this right here.

[00:38:53]So hopefully we don't get any further rotation out of that. But these storms as they march into central New Jersey and southern New Jersey and into the Philadelphia metro really have to be watched. This is going to be something that if you're going to see another tornado warning, it's going to come out of these storms here. Um, keep an eye on these storms up here to see if there's any type of rotation or anything. Uh, right now it just looks like straight line wind gusts out of these cells.

[00:39:25]No sign of any type of rotation, but some pretty good lightning. Very heavy rainfall, 60 mile per hour winds, one inch size hail.

[00:39:42]Let's see here. I'm using Dix right now.

[00:39:47]Uh, it actually is actually up and working, believe it or not. Hopefully not no lightning hits it or anything this time.

[00:40:03]Okay, there is a lot of activity here.

[00:40:13]One second.

[00:40:22]Okay, just checking on some clients here.

[00:40:39]Okay, so far so good.

[00:40:47]So, we got more lightning firing up around Western. This storm is really intensifying.

[00:40:54]I'm going to shift to the other radar so we can take a look at the whole northeast here. And again, there's your heavy rainfall. This is your warm front.

[00:41:06]Here's your thunderstorms, intense rainfall. All that's lining up with the warm front lifting northward. Then here's our prefrontal trough. And this is where we're going to have our severe threat.

[00:41:18]This is just steady heavy rain that will kill any of the severe threat. And then the cold front is back here where you can see the thunderstorms are starting to light up here. This is what's going to be moving through Baltimore and Washington DC later on tonight. And you can see already tornado warning showing up here as well uh around Ohio. this line here as it intensifies is going to basically limit any further development for anywhere to the north of this line.

[00:41:50]So, as this approaches tonight for Baltimore and and Washington uh behind this stabilizing layer, that's basically going to kill the thunderstorm threat here for later on tonight. And that's why our focus is pretty much for the next two hours. And after that, we're pretty much uh in the clear for tornadoes. Still, you could get an isolated severe thunderstorm through midnight, but not to the point where we need to do live coverage and watch, you know, each one of these storms develop.

[00:42:21]So, looks like we'll be coming to an end on the live chat around 6:00 based on the timing of this rainfall coming in and these cells, the way that they're evolving here. Now, what will kill this tornado threat, and I've said this before, is that if we start getting more of a linear structure to these thunderstorms, then the potential for tornadoes really slacks off and we end up with just straight line wind gusts.

[00:42:48]Flash flood warning in Queens makes a lot of sense.

[00:42:55]And oh, we got more images. Let's see what we got here.

[00:43:01]All right. So, definitely flooding.

[00:43:04]Okay. So, let's take a look at this.

[00:43:08]Let's see what this looks like.

[00:43:10]It's a little sideways, but we'll make it work.

[00:43:14]Very impressive. Wow. Yeah. Look at the water piling up here. So, be careful. Do not try to drive through this. This is a cuz the reason why is now look at all that water that gets thrown up onto you onto everyone else which makes everyone else visibility just go almost to zero.

[00:43:35]So it's it's rough out there. Use caution.

[00:43:43]Let's see here. This isn't just about five minutes. Look at that.

[00:43:49]Look at that. That might be the tornado.

[00:43:52]That might be it.

[00:43:58]Hard to say without any type of uh video of it, but it's pretty close to where we had the warning.

[00:44:07]Not bad.

[00:44:09]What a summer.

[00:44:12]Poconos right now is missing out on a lot of this. There isn't a lot going on the Poconos. You had your one line here that is just clipping. Now that that's gone through, it's pretty quiet and I expect that to remain the case for the rest of the evening. If anything, I would say that the warning here, I'm not seeing anything firing up here and your cold front is so far to the west that by the time this reaches this area. It's after the warning. So, I think that you're pretty much out of the worst of this if you're up towards, let's say, uh, Scratton. Uh, let's see where else.

[00:44:51]Harford, Montrose, Lansboro. I'm probably butchering these names as always. Thompson, Hol.

[00:45:01]So, if you're still in Mount Pocono, you got one more line to go through, but it's it's looking more severe, but not so much any there's no sign here of any tornado showing up here. Um, let's take a look at the potential for a rotation here.

[00:45:19]Not much really showing up. We'll jump to the Philadelphia radar, New York, Pennsylvania.

[00:45:38]And you can see not much sign of any type of rotation either further south. Thus far, this is all linear winds, which is great news.

[00:45:52]Again, um we're talking about 40 knot winds, no sign of any type of tornado. So, when you see this signal and this signal next to each other and then just intensifying, so blues and dark reds, that's more like in the planes. Uh that's when we have a real strong signal for a tornado. It's a cyclonic circulation. Right now, we had a hint earlier with this cell, but that has since backed off and hopefully that remains the case as we go on through the evening. Uh but the one thing with these tornadoes is that they can spin down and then spin right back up and intensify pretty quickly.

[00:46:47]Let's see.

[00:46:58]Okay, I'm just going through everything real fast.

[00:47:05]Let's see if we got any more observations. Okay, so far so good on that.

[00:47:16]So now we're pretty much waiting for this line, this line and this line. This line is more of a threat for northern New Jersey uh and the New York City metro as your final line. And then this line for the Philadelphia metro, central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. And you know, you could probably add to Del Marva to Del northern Delaware at the very least as your final line. Then this comes through, kills everything, and then back further west is pretty much where uh our cold front is. And that's going to be passing through late later tonight around midnight when I will be sleeping >> soundly out in the field spraying weeds, watching the clouds roll in. We'll be careful. Don't If you hear If you guys hear light If you guys hear lightning, well, if you hear lightning, it might be done already. Uh, if you if you hear thunder, I hear the lightning.

[00:48:19]>> Right. Right. Um, if you hear thunder, get indoors because you may not see the lightning, but it could be a couple miles away from you and that lightning strike could still hit you. So, if you hear thunder, get indoors. Don't play around with that.

[00:48:36]We got a new severe thunderstorm warning just showed up around Westchester.

[00:48:42]Let's see here. Radar indicated 60 mile per hour winds about quarter inch 3/4 of an inch hail potential.

[00:48:52]Um, let's see here. Damage to no sign of any tornado threat yet from that storm.

[00:48:59]So, that's good. And by the way, I learned my lesson. I always check this screen over here just to make sure that you guys can see everything.

[00:49:11]Wow, look at the impressive. Let's jump to the radar for New York City. Me jump back to Upton real fast.

[00:49:20]Come on. North Carolina, New York. Here we are.

[00:49:25]That This is impressive. Up towards Connecticut. Very heavy rainfall lining up here.

[00:49:31]Strong thunderstorms, a severe thunderstorm around Milbrook and lifting northward very quickly. Bristol's lining up for some very heavy rainfall. Let's take a look at the rainfall rates out of this uh hourly rainfall rates. Look at this. One over an inch per hour. Look at this. Diving into Patterson, Yonkers, New Rochelle, Westwood. Intense heavy rainfall. Uh definitely potential for urban flooding, uh small stream flooding, not so river flooding. We are it's it's a weird dynamic here because we are we have trying to climb out of a drought, right? So this is clearly going to help those drought conditions, but we're going to have a lot of runoff with this rainfall. So the rivers might see a boost, but most likely not over the banks, but it's going to be a pretty rapid rise. So if you are on the riverbank and you're not prepared for that, you can get definitely be caught.

[00:50:30]Especially if you're in the river bank, some people doing whatever uh maybe work on your house or whatever.

[00:50:39]This could lead to some uh minor flooding there. Primary threat here is going to be the urban flooding especially around Yoners uh New Rochelle. Very impressive heavy rainfall setting up. Uh and you can see the storm total. Look at this. I mean, you're you're pushing into the six inch range here. I mean, this is not just a day's worth of rain. This is like a month's worth of rain. This is like two months worth of rain uh for the summer around Whites Plains uh Westwood, Terry Town, uh getting closer up to Yoners. Uh so up through uh southern Connecticut through mil I mean this is just very impressive.

[00:51:23]Uh so again, if you're caught out in this, do not drive through any submerged roadways. Uh if you're approaching any river banks that are starting to rise, I would back away from them. Uh because this is going to be some very impressive heavy rainfall. This also means that you can back off on the severe threat here.

[00:51:43]It starts to decline as these thunderstorms lift northward. Uh, you're wondering about Queens, you're about to get, if you're in northern Queens, Glen Cove, Oyster, uh, Oyster Bay, Great Neck, Northern Queens right here around Laguardia, very heavy rain. But this whole area here is just getting clipped further south because of the outflow boundary from these storms. You're getting additional storms starting to fire here. No sign of any type of tornatic development. Notice everything here is this color here, green color.

[00:52:18]We're not seeing any reds here. So it's all straight line winds, all downburst winds. So no rotation. But when we take a look at the precipit rates here starting to jump up, you know, with some of these cells.

[00:52:35]So seeing everything starting to get more active here, that is for sure.

[00:52:42]And as we jump back towards the Philadelphia radar, our next line's coming through. And I'll be curious to see if any of these this area starts to fire up or if areas like Trenton starts to miss out on the brunt of these storms this time. And it's pretty much focused around Philadelphia and then let's say from Burlington Ocean on southward. Maybe maybe this time Middle Sex Mercer and Mammoth County kind of dodges the bullet on this one.

[00:53:17]The way that this is starting to line up.

[00:53:24]Zoom out a little bit. And there is our clusters of storms.

[00:53:35]Wow.

[00:53:36]>> You've been busy on YouTube.

[00:53:40]>> Oh, hobby.

[00:53:41]>> Yeah, right. Uh, we just had a heavy thunderstorm here in Manhattan. Uh, we're clear in Essex County for the most part. I'm in Bloomfield right now. Yeah.

[00:53:53]Yeah, definitely. You're about to get another line that's just about to come through, but nowhere near as intense.

[00:54:03]Let's see. How's Bear Haven?

[00:54:08]Not sure where Bear Haven is.

[00:54:14]Canada. Yeah, I don't do Canada.

[00:54:20]Canadia.

[00:54:22]Why would That's wild.

[00:54:34]Oh jeez.

[00:54:40]>> Right. Oh well, what are you going to do?

[00:54:46]So let's see now.

[00:54:52]Is the sound of lightning like a gigantic bug zapper? Yes, I would say so. Yeah, probably a good indication. Severe thunderstorm warning my location. Yep.

[00:55:04]Enjoy, Thomas.

[00:55:09]I got my preworkout going. Figure I could use it.

[00:55:20]Uh, let's see.

[00:55:22]I'm just kind of seeing the trends here.

[00:55:25]I'm going to zoom out. I'm going to jump to the weather tap radar for a minute.

[00:55:30]And what I just want to see is is there any indication now? You got the obviously the warm front lifting north here. You got this prefernal trough here. This one's lining up for everything to the south.

[00:55:46]Yeah. I mean, the more I'm looking at this this environment, the more I'm thinking that once this goes through over the next 90 to 120 minutes after that, we're done. Uh, way too stable under this rainfall. Let's see what the new HRR is doing here with this. Let's update this and see if it agrees with basically what I am seeing here. This is the 19Z uh out to 14 hours, more than long enough for us. And you can see again, it drives through this line at 6:30. By that point, the line's right on the coast. And then after that, it's pretty much dead.

[00:56:30]You get some isolated cells here.

[00:56:34]So, we have to watch out for that around 9:30. maybe some maybe an isolated severe thunderstorm here and there, but after that it's pretty much heavy rainfall.

[00:56:46]And again, if you're down towards Washington DC overnight tonight, 1000 p.m., 11:00 p.m., you're in for some very heavy rainfall around Baltimore, Washington DC.

[00:56:58]Don't be surprised we get some really powerful down downburst wind gusts taking uh taking shape around Baltimore and Washington, Maryland. But for us, this is it.

[00:57:12]This is pretty much our time period if we're going to uh set up any more additional tornadoes. Of course, the tornado watch is already verified with the tornadoes, you know, lining up in northern New Jersey. Now, the only question for southeastern Pennsylvania, if you're going to get something else, it's going to be now.

[00:57:31]For Philadelphia, if you're going to get something, it's going to be the next 90 minutes. And for central and southern New Jersey, if you're going to line up with heavy rainfall and and tornadoes and and downburst wind gusts is going to happen in the next 120 minutes. All lining up here. And one of the good signs here against tornadoes and more towards downburst wind gusts is that you're starting to get that linear structure starting to show up with these lines and thunderstorms. And the other thing we're starting to see is possibly a little bit of a bow echo structure trying to organize here. We're not there yet, but we're starting to gain that uh on the uh radar on said just a newborn just came out 60 mile per hour wind gust 3/4 size hail for uh locations just south of Philadelphia.

[00:58:35]So that line is starting to come in towards the Philadelphia metro, towards Wilmington and Delaware, Chester, Chad's Forge Township. I like that.

[00:58:48]New York City is not a bust. I I don't know. Here's the thing. Like I I'm not sure. You just had in the New York City metro a tornado warning and flash flooding and heavy rain and someone still calls it a bust. That's insane.

[00:59:03]That's literally insane, man. Glen Cove is just getting absolutely clocked right now. Mean more showers and thunderstorms approaching. I mean, is it not a bus only if a tornado lands up in your in your your living room? That's just wild to me. That's insane.

[00:59:23]Uh, let's see here.

[00:59:31]I do not cover Canada yet. That is true.

[00:59:34]Uh let's see here. I don't plan to either. Uh let's see here.

[00:59:43]>> Absolutely certain.

[00:59:45]You're not sure. Why are you here?

[00:59:47]>> Well, good pre-workout to get ready to fight off the tornado. Uh hopefully misses everywhere else. Lightning sounds.

[00:59:59]Lancaster County utter devastation all around us, but we don't get any wind so much as a rain. Same with snow in the winter. Oh, I mean that's good. You still have a house. New York City might had an impressive looking shelf cloud watching on WABC. Yeah, we I saw that image myself. Yeah. Uh you're able can you check the Bronx? Uh well, right now the Bronx, you're clearing out. Um there are some storms forming to your south, but nothing immediate. Uh for right now, you got one more line coming through. I think the most intense thunderstorms are over for New York City itself. This line will come through and then you got this line here. So, you got two more lines to go through in the New York City metro.

[01:00:47]But I think the most intense as far as the tornado producing, I think that one has passed. That has passed. But you still have two other lines to create plenty of havoc for you for the evening rush hour. Your primary concern around the New York City metro is quickly becoming the heavy rainfall and the flash flooding.

[01:01:10]Let's see. Do we have a new message scale discussion?

[01:01:17]Nope.

[01:01:19]Just making sure we got a new mess scale discussion, but we don't. But we do have a new severe thunderstorm warning now issued for the for Philadelphia itself right in the heart of it. 60 mile per hour winds, 3/4 size hail. Um, includes basically I 95 corridor right into Philadelphia. Very nasty. Uh it's moving to the east at 25 miles per hour. No sign of any type of rotation.

[01:01:49]So that's great news. Let's take a look at the wind pattern here again. So when we're looking for we're looking for a solid rotation of red and green, right?

[01:01:59]So Christmas colors. Okay. So if you see Santa Claus, that's some bad news. So what we see here is everything moving in the same direction, right? So when you have the same direction that means it's straight line winds which means we're not seeing any rotation. So thus far this line whole line isn't producing any sign of any type of tornado at this time which is great news. What it is producing is some very heavy uh rainfall and some frequent vivid lightning. Uh let's take a look at the precipitation rate, the hourly rate here. And look at this hourly rate.

[01:02:41]You're easily pushing over an inch per hour, and this is driving right into the suburbs of of Philadelphia and eventually heading towards Philadelphia.

[01:02:51]So you have an inch per hour rainfall rate at the heart of rush hour.

[01:02:58]That's trouble. Okay. So, if you are getting ready to leave for work, please give yourself some extra time. If you can't see, pull over uh on the side of the road. Do not try to drive through submerged roadways cuz that water might be deeper than you think.

[01:03:27]>> What are they claiming? Uh Tornado confirmed. That doesn't based on the observations. Yeah, I mean very impressive uh uh images coming through. Radar was probably one of the most impressive I've seen around the New York City metro in some time. I mean that was just that was that was clear as day.

[01:03:50]Here's another.

[01:04:01]So, you can see the result here of the heavy rainfall. Look at all the submerged roadways here. This is a little bit doable. Thankfully, the police are out making sure everybody is safe.

[01:04:14]>> Utilities is going to be a mess, unfortunately.

[01:04:23]Let's see here. Let me jump back into the premium section here. Uh 2 in per hour flash flooding in Queens.

[01:04:32]New York's still standing.

[01:04:35]Thus, why do people vote for New York is still Well, New York City was not going to be knocked down. Does any did anyone think that was going to happen? This isn't a sci-fi channel, ladies and gentlemen. Uh, but even though you don't cover Canada, Canada is still insist on setting the areas you do cover lots of wildfire smoke. I know, I know. Believe me. Hopefully, we're done with that. Uh, do the Yankees get their game in tonight? That's a good question.

[01:05:04]Um, I I mean I mean, if I was running things, I would have postponed it. I think they'll probably they'll probably do delays until they clear out at nine.

[01:05:14]Um, Based on the HRR guidance, they got an open window after 7:30.

[01:05:22]So, I could see them trying to play through and try to get done by 9:30. I So, I could see them maybe playing, but it might be might be a tough cell.

[01:05:35]We'll see. But they have a window. So, I'll put it that way. They definitely have a window to play.

[01:05:47]H.

[01:05:51]Let's see here.

[01:05:53]Go back to the radar.

[01:05:56]So, someone was asking, "Hey, where's the one to two inch?" I mean, maybe you're in the southern side of Queens.

[01:06:03]This Anthony Ferry, I'm just going to put it this way. You're probably on the south side of Queens, which means you missed the worst. See, the whole thing is that Queens, if you're if you're new to to geography in New York, New York is actually pretty big. Okay? So, if you in your backyard did not get the flooding rains, that doesn't mean that parts of northern Queens didn't. You could just be in southern Queens or you may not even be in Queens. You may not know where you live. I don't know. But as you can see here up towards Great Neck, we definitely had some very heavy rainfall and uh that has unfortunately panned out in other locations as well leading to flash flood warnings.

[01:06:53]Now we're getting this line that's uh moving through uh towards Frank Township. It is starting to intensify a bit. Still below severe levels. This one's heading right towards uh Morris County and and Middle Sex in our line around Philadelphia. No sign of any tornadoes yet, thankfully. Still some very strong winds, very heavy rainfall, damaging winds possible.

[01:07:24]And up towards northeastern Pennsylvania, the last line is passing through the Poconos. After this, you're pretty much done.

[01:07:34]So, if you're in Mount Pocono, you're getting some very heavy rainfall right now. After that, you're pretty much done for the evening, aside from a few thunderstorms with the cold front towards uh 1000 p.m. to midnight.

[01:07:48]Look at the lightning result. Look at the lightning out of this storm that's marching to the south of Stanford right around Oyster Bay. There is a ton of lightning showing up here. So again, with all this lightning, please use caution because, you know, it's easy to get struck by lightning, unfortunately.

[01:08:06]Um, so please use some caution in that respect.

[01:08:14]We're seeing more lines starting to set up around um Hemstead and Freeport. This will likely stay below severe levels.

[01:08:22]And then for the rest of Long Island, I don't really see much in way. I I could see it barely staying under severe level on the wind gust side, but there is no other threat besides that. But there will be some very heavy rainfall.

[01:08:38]Yankees game got postponed already.

[01:08:40]Well, then there you go.

[01:08:52]See around Bayville, Glen, Rosal Heights, Great Neck. They're all getting pretty heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, strong wind gusts.

[01:09:01]Thankfully, no turning of these thunderstorms down towards the southern parts of Long Island towards Valley Stream. You got some strong thunderstorms, but nothing really severe. pretty much missed out on that threat. So, that's great. Then, as you head down towards Brooklyn, it is pretty quiet. Same thing around Staten Island. Here's our next line that's going to be impacting New York City metro. You can see the intensity is much, much lower.

[01:09:31]And then here's the Philadelphia Metro in our line here.

[01:09:40]So, did they actually get the Did they actually postpone the Yankees game?

[01:09:43]Let's take a look.

[01:09:47]Uh, we'll pull it up and see. And yes, they did. They postponed it with a makeup for tomorrow.

[01:09:54]So, there you go. There's your Yankee question. Do I have to worry about them getting it in tonight? because they postponed it, which is actually pretty nice of them as far as like the fans cuz at least now you don't have to wait at the stadium and wonder whether or not you're going to be able to go to the game or not, you know, and that's like at 4:30. So that means you don't have to drive there and then find out it got cancelled. So that's actually that's actually really good of them. Good on the Yankees organization for doing that.

[01:10:35]go back to the zoomed out. Radar and see where we're at with our structure here.

[01:10:45]Okay, so we are starting to consolidate line three and two into one line here.

[01:10:54]So once this goes through, if you're like in in Pottsville, Lebanon, I think you're done. Lancaster, I think you're done.

[01:11:05]Scranton, you're done.

[01:11:08]Uh up towards Sydney, Anu, Anueta, Roxberry, New York.

[01:11:15]Bennington, New York. You're pretty much done because this isn't going to reach you till later on tonight.

[01:11:22]So, right now we're starting to consolidate and break down our zones.

[01:11:26]This is pretty much starting to come to an end and the focus now shifts towards central and southern New Jersey to see if anything takes off. And the way this is lining up, it looks like this time uh Middle Sex, Morris, and uh Mammoth counties are going to miss out on the brunt of this. It looks like the focus is going to be towards uh Burlington County down through southern New Jersey, uh Vinland, uh Atlantic City, Wildwood.

[01:11:57]Right now, Philadelphia itself is getting uh thunderstorms getting ready to come in.

[01:12:03]No sign though of any rotation, which is great news again.

[01:12:09]So, we're not seeing any indication. Oh, hold it.

[01:12:13]What is this? Maybe maybe a small sign here. This could just be a mess low though.

[01:12:25]Let's see what the hail potential looks like.

[01:12:28]Not that impressive.

[01:12:34]It was producing hail, but not so much anymore.

[01:12:42]See if there's anything showing up in the base reflective. Nope. No.

[01:12:50]So, this might be developing a mess low, but not a tornado. Just so the difference is is the broadness of the low and where it is in the structure of the thunderstorm.

[01:13:02]Now, a messo can cause a tornado, but that's pretty rare around here. Not so much in the planes.

[01:13:19]Portchester.

[01:13:20]>> Portchester. What about Portchester?

[01:13:29]>> Oh, out here in Portchester, Long Island. No, you don't have to worry about a tornado out here. You want to know why? Take a look at this sounding here. Okay. So, in Portchester, right, you have a environment here that is more moisture saturated because of your marine air environment than it is um for a tornado. So, I wouldn't really wor worry about that.

[01:14:01]Pretty good lightning out here towards Glen Cove though. Oyster Bay, Great Neck.

[01:14:07]But there's no sign of any type of rotation out here.

[01:14:12]Again, let me just zoom out here.

[01:14:17]Take a look at the rotation potential and over right over Long Island. Strong sign of a mezol.

[01:14:27]So, let's pull up the local radar here.

[01:14:31]New York. Come on. Where are we?

[01:14:40]New York update. Here we are. Okay, let's take a look.

[01:14:46]And thus far, yeah, strong signal for very strong straight line winds. Um, definitely a potential here for some wind damage. You're talking about 42, 50 mileph wind, wind gusts pushing into the 60 range. Um, so definitely some very strong signal for straight line wind gusts. Uh, this is definitely more of a signal of a mess low. Way too broad.

[01:15:12]Typically what you want for a tornado, it's very, very tight, right? This is very broad. So, this storm is definitely packing some very strong winds in Oyster Bay heading towards Huntington. Um, I'd probably watch out for Karmac, Smithtown, possibly if this doesn't weaken Eaton's Neck, Lloyd, Lloyd, uh, Harbor.

[01:15:41]These locations here are in for some very strong winds as this thunderstorm comes through, but no sign of any rotation.

[01:15:51]As far as precipitation, as far as the rainfall rates, again, you're talking about rainfall rates going through the roof here. Glen Cove is pushing over one inch and that's marching right across the north side of Long Island here.

[01:16:10]Let's see here.

[01:16:20]Someone is worried about tornadoes in New Jersey. Right now, we don't have anything to worry about right now.

[01:16:31]It's pretty quiet right now.

[01:16:34]Maybe look at the uh wind circulation here.

[01:16:41]There we go. And again, there's no sign of any tornatic structure right now.

[01:16:47]This is all straight line wind gusts.

[01:16:50]All of it, which again is great news.

[01:16:55]Is absolutely great news. No sign of any tornatic thunderstorms. Everything straight line winds um showing up here on all the guidance here. Now, you see how this is all red? This is because it's further away from the base of the radar in Philadelphia. But notice everything here is the same color red moving away.

[01:17:17]So right now um it looks like we just have some very strong thunderstorms, but we've kind of moved away over the past couple hours from the tornado from the tornado aspect here. Still with our sounding in southern New Jersey again, decayed values through the roof. There's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere over 2 in and you still have winds that still would support the photograph still supports the potential for a tornado in southern New Jersey and central New Jersey um until this line moves through.

[01:17:59]So that's why we still have that threat here. And that's why we have to watch out for this line.

[01:18:09]And then after that, we're done.

[01:18:12]So I think this right here, uh, as this is coming through southeastern Pennsylvania, Lancaster, you're pretty much done. Aside from heavy rainfall, uh, but as far as the severe threat, pretty much done.

[01:18:29]See if we have any additional observations here.

[01:18:38]So this is from New Jersey.

[01:18:43]And you can see the clouds. What you have here is a lot of sinking cool air. That's what you see in these clouds here.

[01:19:02]Let's see here.

[01:19:06]Still nothing in flushing. Just light rain and a little thunder. Well, that's good, right?

[01:19:12]Uh how about Long Beach Island? Seems like those storms are still way off.

[01:19:18]Yeah, I would say that by the time the storms reach Long Beach, they're going to be significantly weakening. Um, still you got to be care mindful of it. Again, I think that this is pretty much done in probably another hour and 20 minutes that this pretty much this whole threat comes to an end.

[01:19:47]One second. Just getting Okay, good.

[01:19:59]So, the flash flood warnings, they're pretty much done. This is our two tornado. Let's pull in the two spotters are in here.

[01:20:08]Northern New Jersey train spire witness tornado touching down interstate intersection of interstate 80 and route 206.

[01:20:17]So that's going to get that that got sent to SPC. Uh radio sent radio video sent in of a tornado on the ground from a driving range in Pipony uh time estimated from radar.

[01:20:34]So there is our two when you're looking on the SPC there is our two indications and verifications of the tornado that moved through northern New Jersey.

[01:20:49]Next lines, Edison, Franklin Township.

[01:20:52]Uh, watch out Old Bridge, Morris, more Monroe Township, just to north of Princeton. We're getting a nurse cell here. Looks like it's still below severe levels, but it's still packing good punch with heavy rainfall. Uh, Queens are getting a bit of a break now.

[01:21:08]Everything's starting to clear out. Uh this thunderstorm, you can already see it's starting to lose some of its punch as it's moving out towards the rest of Long Island. Uh down towards Connecticut again, we still have some heavy rainfall.

[01:21:23]Let's go jump back to the national view here.

[01:21:30]You can see out in Connecticut, not much away of severe thunderstorms, some stronger thunderstorms, certainly some heavier rainfall. There's our warm front continuing to drive northward.

[01:21:41]Prefrontal trough is marching its way through.

[01:21:49]And look at the what's setting up here with our cold front here. Very impressive line here dropping through West Virginia. The reason why I'm keeping an eye on this is that the stronger that this line gets, which by the way is already producing a tornado, uh the stronger this part of the line gets, the more likely that anything to the north of it after this influence of a stable atmosphere basically kills off the thunderstorm threat. So basically, this is verifying the idea that pretty much after 6, we're done. you know, you don't have to go to 900 pm with this warning with this watch because then all your convective ability is basically crushed because what's happening is that you're getting a lot of rising motion.

[01:22:34]In fact, I bet you we could see this with a satellite picture. Let's see here. Um, I want to do all channels plain.

[01:22:50]And of course, I don't want that. I want continuous. There we go. Okay. So, what's happening here? This is our severe event right now. Right with the tornado and all that good stuff. Right down here is another line that's pushing off the coast. This right here, the stronger you see rising motion here. The more notice that the cloud cold cloud tops are kind of warming here because of sinking air. You might be able to see it on the water vapor satellite picture.

[01:23:20]Yeah. even more so. So there's our trough coming in and our cold front.

[01:23:25]This is intense rising motion. Now that rising motion, it has to sink somewhere.

[01:23:30]What goes up must come down. So what happens much like when we're in when we're talking about a winter storm and we're talking about meascale banding and how some people get quotequote trilided.

[01:23:42]Well, the same thing could happen in this type of convective environment with thunderstorms. what you get is this strong rising motion here which basically leads to sinking motion here.

[01:23:53]So you don't have as intensive lifting.

[01:23:56]So as a result that's why this is it for us after this line comes through and then after that you get a lot of substance and the coldront follows with some showers and thunderstorms but nowhere near the intensity because this feature is suppressing the development.

[01:24:13]Combined with that, zoomed out even more. You see this feature right here lifting to the northeast. This is the upper level low. So you get stronger forcing here, stronger lifting here, stronger lifting here. We're caught in between. And that's how we get shut down for the rest of the evening. Still a threat for showers and a few thunderstorms, but nowhere near as intense as what we see down here and up here. So that's where we're at right now. And then when we take a look at the radar, uh, let me get rid of some. This is a little bit busy. So, I'll take off the mears and I'll take off some of the warnings for now.

[01:24:54]Lightning alerts. So, when we look at the radar here out once this comes through, everything gets a lot more quiet. This is with the upper level low.

[01:25:08]That's the warm front. That's the prefrontal trough coldfront here. Your focus gets focused down towards Washington and Virginia and we end up with pretty much quiet.

[01:25:21]So now let's go back to the alerts. We just got a new severe thunderstorm warning for uh central New Jersey.

[01:25:30]That's 60 mile per hour winds, one inch radar indication.

[01:25:35]That's also possible. Tornadoes is possible with this cell.

[01:25:39]Uh let's see here. Uh severe thunderstorm is located over Kendell Park or 8 miles west of New New Brunswick moving east at 25 miles per hour. It's featuring 60 mile per hour winds and quarter size hail. Um it's driven by radar indication.

[01:26:01]So let's see what the circulation looks like on this.

[01:26:06]Let's see. Uh, spiders.

[01:26:09]Put back on the spotter. See if there's anything new there.

[01:26:13]And let's go back the potential for rotation.

[01:26:23]So, we're definitely starting to see this light up. So, let's go and jump to the Philadelphia radar. Get a better look at that.

[01:26:38]Carolina.

[01:26:39]Here we are.

[01:26:42]Okay. So, very strong straight line winds.

[01:26:48]Now, what we're going to be watching with this thunderstorm is you see this red right here that's starting to pop up here. We'll see if whether or not this gets a little bit tighter as this storm marches through right here.

[01:27:04]So, we got a very faint circulation potential right around Black Mills, Blackwells Mills, Franklin Township right in here just to north of uh Montgomery Township.

[01:27:20]So, watching this very carefully to see if this intensifies.

[01:27:26]This is heading just to uh just to north of uh North Brunswick and heading right into New Brunswick.

[01:27:48]Okay.

[01:27:55]So, this is something that we're going to have to watch out for. This could actually lead to um a tornado warning being issued because this is very this is getting starting to organize a little bit more.

[01:28:06]And when you look at the sounding here, generate the sounding again. Not as not as extreme as as other locations, but just enough.

[01:28:19]Just enough. And certainly a cape 3,300 jewels per kilogram.

[01:28:25]More than supportive for severe thunderstorms.

[01:28:30]We'll have to watch this very carefully over the next couple of minutes.

[01:28:36]Once it gets to about this area right here, then it should start to subside because then it moves into a more stable environment. So, take a look at the sounding over the water here. I'll show you what I mean. You see this right here? See that little signal right here?

[01:28:51]That that sets up stable. That means your sin is about minus 27. So, what that does is that it kills your thunderstorms and leads to more of a heavy rainfall when you got that signal.

[01:29:03]So that's why when these thunderstorms approach, they weaken and they lose that signal. Right now, we're keeping a very careful eye to see if anything tries to organize out of that thunderstorm. But very, very impressive. Uh very heavy rainfall. Not as much lightning showing up, but that's going to be clipping normally moving through uh Morris.

[01:29:35]heading towards Edison probably clip Long Island before weakening further south. So my focus is starting to end up right in here for the rest of the evening for the next hour or so before we be pretty much put an end to this.

[01:29:53]And thus far this line is definitely becoming more linear. No sign of any type of circulation whatsoever.

[01:30:03]So that's great. Still intense rainfall, still strong wind gusts, but not tornatic. If there's going to be one, it possibly could be this one out here. The storms further north, just your run-in-the-mill thunderstorms, not even severe level. So that's great news.

[01:30:20]Again, Scranton, you're done. Hazelton, you're done. Pottsville, done. Lebanon, uh, Harrisburg, you're getting some heavier rainfall that's going to move into York as well.

[01:30:34]So, we'll pretty much come to an end on this area right here. Obviously, with the up with the live coverage, uh, we won't be having afternoon updates because we're doing it right now.

[01:30:49]By the way, while we're doing that, might as well check in on our tropical storm since we probably got new update. Uh 60 mile per hour winds moving to the northwest is expected to make landfall towards Louisiana.

[01:31:07]Uh let's see the latest graphics.

[01:31:14]expected to track along Louisiana's coast and it is still a severely sheared tropical system. So you have your exposed center here. I wouldn't be surprised if it kind of skirts along the Gulf Coast a little bit sooner than what's being uh forecasted, but once it hits Louisiana, it'll steadily weaken. Not expected to become a hurricane. And the fact that the northwesterly shears in place means that the brunt of your heavy rainfall is going to remain off the coast. So, that's good news for flooding. Um, but a nice little tropical system nonetheless.

[01:31:49]So, I just wanted to touch on that. We have a little bit of time.

[01:32:02]>> Okay, enjoy.

[01:32:05]Uh, still nothing. Flushing, Long Beach Island. Uh, looks like run of mill thunderstorms so far, Joe. I'm I'm not expecting anything uh severe.

[01:32:18]Uh, basement was flooded on Saturday.

[01:32:20]That's not good.

[01:32:26]More new observations. Let's see here.

[01:32:30]Stanford, Connecticut.

[01:32:32]Man, they they're getting plowed out there. But again, it's like it's like a catch 22. you need the rainfall, but then you get it all at once, so it's hard to really um take advantage of that.

[01:32:50]We just got a new severe thunderstorm warning in central Long Island. Uh as the storm is weakening, we're seeing wind gust of 60 miles per hour. Still hail threat, but the storm is definitely weakening.

[01:33:10]No more circulation showing up, so that's great.

[01:33:17]Further south.

[01:33:24]Still impressive storm.

[01:33:27]See if we get any. So far, it looks like we backed off on this circulation potential.

[01:33:33]Still a little bit of a little bit of a signal here. Okay, let's pause this for a second. So, zoomed in to the south of Blackwells Mills. In fact, we just got a new we just got updated right now uh to south of Franklin. Very, very weak circulation. So, we're going to watch see whether or not this could actually intensify or or um strengthen a little bit. Um when you see this signal here, it it's a starting stage for possibly uh of a mess scale lowle mess scale low, possibly even a tornado. Um but thus far, we're not there yet. Close, but not there yet.

[01:34:23]So that's what we're watching for right now, right in the heart of that thunderstorm.

[01:34:29]Now again, the one of the things that's really really uh good to see is that we're seeing everything being very progressive, very fast moving. So, the flash flooding that we saw on uh Saturday on uh Mammoth County, northern Mammoth County uh is not setting up where we get this training effect. All the thunderstorms now are moving at a steady pace here.

[01:34:56]And now we're finally getting those thunderstorms moving through Philadelphia. Pretty much running uh severe thunderstorm. Uh Bloomington seeing a lot of lightning. And now we enter the final period, the final hour in my opinion for this for this severe threat with this thunderstorms here. Again, when we take a look at the sounding in c in south central New Jersey right around Burlington County, you have a favorable environment here. Winds veering a loft is supported for a tornado and also severe thunderstorms. There's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. Your cape is through the roof. So this line is going to be interacting with a very favorable environment for turning in the atmosphere. So if we get our severe if we get a tornado another tornado warning is going to happen when it come when it comes through this area.

[01:35:52]Once this line comes through then we're done. So we're pretty much coming up to the final hour here of the live coverage in my in my opinion. Um because then again after that we pretty much move to an environment where uh our thunderstorm threat gets focus more down towards Baltimore and Washington south of the forecast area.

[01:36:21]Okay, let's see here.

[01:36:28]Right, I'm just making sure we have all of North Philly. It's been cloudy all day.

[01:36:35]Has that hindered severe development in some areas? Yes. Because of the divergence and defluence of law, rising air, uh that has been overcome in many locations.

[01:36:50]You see this cell here, very strong, is putting pretty much crushing anything for Trenton. And then this cell here is going to set up for this area here. So it's looking like um in between that portions of Mammoth and Ocean County might miss out on the worst of this. Uh the thunderstorms are below severe levels here in northeastern Pennsylvania. Um Mount Pocono, you're done. Like I said, Hazelton, Straburg, you're pretty much almost done. um northern New Jersey, like this whole line here is staying below severe levels and we're starting to lose that severe punch here also on Long Island. Uh the thunderstorm has fallen below severe levels. Uh but still potential for some very heavy rainfall. Notice the lightning is starting to subside as well as we lose the intensity of that those thunderstorms and the bulkier lightning is all focused here. So, at this point, we could say that uh pretty much our focus for our line is right here back towards central and southern New Jersey. A lot of southeastern Pennsylvania. Notice the lightning, the frequency of lightning has dropped off significantly.

[01:38:12]Same thing out here throughout South Central Pennsylvania.

[01:38:16]It's just moderate to heavy rainfall.

[01:38:19]on the radar.

[01:38:22]Let's see what the skew what the observations are saying out here.

[01:38:27]Yep, just pretty much heavy rain.

[01:38:30]No sign of any thunderstorm signal.

[01:38:32]There's a lot of heavy rainfall out there.

[01:38:37]And again, here's your warm front.

[01:38:38]There's your prefrontal trough and your cold friends off to the west out here in the Ohio River Valley. And that will move through tonight through tomorrow morning.

[01:39:01]Let's see.

[01:39:03]Just checking on X. See if there's anything new here.

[01:39:10]Maybe we got some more pictures here.

[01:39:12]So, let's see what we got.

[01:39:17]Let's see here. This is from the storm with the potential for a tornado in it. See the cloud cover. Lot of sinking air with this.

[01:39:46]Yep, that's the live and mad is clouds.

[01:39:48]Which uh platform is that?

[01:39:53]>> H >> must Oh, under the live. Let me go take a look.

[01:40:01]>> Okay, I see it. Yeah, that's definitely my mattis cloud. Nice. That means there's a lot of lifting involved.

[01:40:09]Uh yeah, there's still going to be a potential for flash flooding with with some of this rainfall until we get the cold front to clear out because the precipit values are so high and this environment right here.

[01:40:23]So you're seeing a lot of this spread right here. But this is what I want to show you. Okay, so you see how you kind of have this spreading motion here. This is called divergence and dluence. So you're getting a lot of air rapidly exit and you're getting this spread, right? So what this allows to happen at the upper levels is you get a lot of air rising from the surface. So when you have a lot of this moisture hanging around, even though it's not necessarily severe thunderstorms, you still have the potential for uh very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.

[01:41:05]Let's see.

[01:41:10]>> YouTube was asking if you could explain divergence and dip.

[01:41:15]>> Oh, wow. Okay, that's a long one. Okay.

[01:41:20]All right. So, oh, I wish I had some silly putty, but Okay. So when you're talking about divergence and dluence okay so divergence is that the air in the upper levels is diverging right so remember the atmosphere is always looking for a balance okay that's what why we have storms that's why you have hurricanes winter storms it's simply a physical process of transporting and balancing out heat now when you're stretching the atmosphere like What we have here with these winds here, what you're doing is that you're basically taking a part of the atmosphere, 250 mibars, and you're stretching it and you're you're you're expelling air rapidly out towards the ridge where you're seeing a buildup of mass. So in order to counteract that in order to find a balance what happens is that that divergence and dluence at the upper levels leads to rapidly rising air from the surface. So whenever you have this signal here what you're opening up is the potential for air to rapidly rise to fill the void caused by this process of divergence and dluence. Dluence where air is rapidly exiting. Divergence where you're seeing the heights spread out. So the same the process here basically stretches the atmosphere at in this in these areas and you have to have rising motion to fill that that void which leads to the development of showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall and snow and all that other good stuff. So when we talk about divergence and dluence, we're talking about the process of the atmosphere balancing itself out.

[01:43:15]We have more mass at the surface, less mass in the upper levels. So the mass at the surface is lifted and rises to fill the void of mass in the upper levels caused by this process.

[01:43:30]Hopefully I answer that properly.

[01:43:36]Let's see here.

[01:43:48]Okay.

[01:44:01]Let's see. Let's go back to the radar here. Um, thus far this the line here around Philadelphia is losing a little bit of its punch.

[01:44:16]H, interesting.

[01:44:18]The Edison one thus far, no circulation.

[01:44:22]Certainly a very strong storm.

[01:44:26]We're getting more showers setting up around New York City, but nothing severe.

[01:44:31]um the line out towards that's approaching the New Jersey border here and pushing out of eastern Pennsylvania.

[01:44:38]No sign of it becoming severe thus far.

[01:44:41]So that's good news.

[01:44:44]So while the watch is going to be going on till 9:00, I don't think that the conditions uh to warrant the watch till 9:00 is going to exist. I think that once this comes through, I think we're pretty much done.

[01:45:00]based on on the whole structure here.

[01:45:02]Once this comes through, you have nothing here in central Pennsylvania.

[01:45:06]Absolutely nothing uh is firing.

[01:45:08]Nothing's trying to develop. Let's take a look at the visible satellite picture.

[01:45:13]One minute.

[01:45:16]Okay. So, I'm going to refresh this real fast.

[01:45:21]And notice you're getting a lot overcast cloud cover over central Pennsylvania.

[01:45:25]It's 5:00 right now. So in order to stabilize the atmosphere, you just don't have the support for it. And this right here is a hu the most significant signal right here. Let's look at the surface base index right here. So this is the instability in the atmosphere.

[01:45:43]Obviously, we have a lot of instability here. This is from the Atlantic. This is a stable environment. Here is where we're watching right now for our next round of severe thunderstorms. Then the thunderstorms kind of declined here.

[01:45:56]Right now, remember what I said about central Pennsylvania? This is all stable air now with steady rain. This is a cap.

[01:46:05]And then here's our thunderstorm line further south here that's heading towards Washington DC and Baltimore. So this right here inhibits thunderstorm development. Okay, you can still have showers, but the fact that it's very sta that it's becoming more stable compared to the rest of the environment tells me that after this line comes through that's currently over eastern Pennsylvania, that's it. It's done because you don't have an environment to get another line to fire up. So, let's see if the HRR This is a mess scale model. Let's see what the new uh alignment says. This is now updated out to about four hours, which is perfect for us.

[01:46:50]And you can see there's our line moving through New Jersey and the Philadelphia metro. And then after that, showers and thunderstorms, but nothing severe.

[01:47:06]So, we'll go to the 19 hour. But we're still waiting for the 20 hour to come through.

[01:47:12]But yeah, after that we lose our severe threat.

[01:47:18]You still have showers and thunderstorms with the cold front, but the tornado threat's gone. The severe threat is limited. Let's take a look at the cape values on this.

[01:47:32]And so you can see what I'm talking about.

[01:47:37]Strong enough for thunderstorms, but not strong enough for severe levels. Here's here's where we're at right now.

[01:47:46]By 6 PM, it's focused right on the Jersey Shore. Everything else is degraded back here. And then 7 8 9 very strong enough again for showers and thunderstorms. This cape value is not strong enough at night for severe thunderstorms in terms of a turning motion.

[01:48:11]Let's see here.

[01:48:14]Not sure. Here we are.

[01:48:16]So again, you have that potential tornado potential and again down towards West Virginia as well.

[01:48:24]By 6 pm that starts to decline and we lose our punch and it's focused more towards the southern mid-Atlantic.

[01:48:34]So again, it looks like we're lining up where pretty much we're just dealing with we'll still have the potential for very heavy rainfall, still the potential for some rumbles of thunder, some lightning.

[01:48:50]Uh but I think that we lose our severe thr tornado potential uh with this line that's coming through right now. We just got a new severe thunderstorm warning uh issued for uh southern New Jersey and northern Delaware. Uh so southern central Chester County is cancelled. Uh severe thunderstorm effect remains in effect for north Newcastle, northwest Salem, northwestern Gloucester and southeastern Delaware counties.

[01:49:20]So that's this one right here. This cell right here marching into southern New Jersey. Again, this whole line is moving into an environment where again it's supportive for the potential for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.

[01:49:42]Let's look behind this line.

[01:49:45]What does the sounding look like?

[01:49:49]much more stable.

[01:49:53]We lose our tornado potential, marginal severe potential, far less supportive for severe thunderstorms.

[01:50:08]Same thing as you head out towards northeastern Pennsylvania.

[01:50:14]Again, you lose your tornado. It's marginally severe. So, you might get an isolated severe thunderstorm, but you have a lot of stabilization factors here limiting your showers and thunderstorms, which is why after this line, we're pretty much done for the tornado threat at least. That new severe thunderstorm warning just came out just to the east of Philadelphia for northwestern Camden County and southern New Jersey, central Burlington County and southern New Jersey. This is until 6:00 p.m.

[01:50:51]Pretty much looking at 60 mph winds, quarter size hail.

[01:51:00]This one does not support any type of indication for a tornado.

[01:51:05]This one still opens up the potential.

[01:51:08]Let's see if we have any circulation showing up here.

[01:51:15]Still a potential hint. Let's take a look at the Philadelphia radar for around Old Bridge.

[01:51:25]Long Island, you're pretty much done by the way, aside from heavy rainfall, tornado threats pretty much an end.

[01:51:34]Let's see here.

[01:51:41]So again, we are watching this very broad circulation here to see if this intensifies.

[01:51:51]Primary threat here looks like to be straight line wind gusts heading right into Oldbridge Township heading towards Aberdine, Kingsburg, Northern Homedale Township.

[01:52:19]See? Okay.

[01:52:28]So, I hope you guys have enjoyed the live coverage. Um, kind of not used to doing, you know, how I do the winter storms, all that stuff. Uh, severe thunderstorms.

[01:52:42]decided to take up a little bit more of aggressive uh live coverage approach to it this year. Hope you guys enjoy it. Um because you know when it comes to severe thunderstorms around here in the planes, especially with the stormchasers, you can go for hours because you just get repeat repeat. But the northern Atlantic is a different beast. And uh let me show you why.

[01:53:04]You see we have three factors here.

[01:53:06]Three type of atmospheric three type of geographical uh inhibitor factors here for severe thunderstorms especially long track tornadoes. One the ocean which sets up more stable environment. Two the Appalachian Mountains which leads to a uh more of a substant zone over the coastal plane typically. and three, usually a limited transport of moisture at the lower levels between the uh Appalachian Mountains and the I 95 corridor. Now, the reason why we see more severe thunderstorms, more dynamic thunderstorms, and more tornadoes of late, especially over the past decade, is because our urban heat island effect, especially on the I95 corridor, has enhanced our thunderstorm potential and enhanced the potential for me lows to develop, and that's why we're seeing more uh severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes more frequently. Aside from that, we also have better technology.

[01:54:08]So, I think we're seeing the mess scale lows a lot better. And so, we're getting a lot more warnings. They don't always verify, but we definitely get more warnings showing up. Now, zoomed out a bit, we're pretty much done with severe thunderstorm warnings to our north, right? They're not really showing up anymore. Um, we're seeing more of a focus from essentially central New Jersey down through southern New Jersey right on the Delaware River. Nothing off to our west. Everything's to either over central New Jersey on southward. So, our focus, as I've been expecting for the past two hours, is pretty much shifting towards central and southern New Jersey for the rest of the evening. Uh, no sign yet of any tornatic thunderstorms.

[01:54:54]Again, when we take a look at the velocity here, uh, this line is featuring all straight line winds. This one is the only one that thus far is even hinting at a potential for a rotation. and thus far has not. Um, but this is also capable. We take a look at a 1 hour precipitation. Let's see what we're doing here. Uh, still some very heavy rainfall with both of these thunder with both of these lines of thunderstorms.

[01:55:22]So, this is happening right at the heart of rush hour when everyone's traveling, which is a major concern um that hopefully hopefully doesn't cause too much in way of uh accidents. We have another line coming through over northern New Jersey, Spartan around Spartan Township, north of Spartan Township, up through Sussex County. None of these storms though are being warned as as of this time and they're not really producing much in the way of lightning either um thus far which is uh pretty uh surprising.

[01:56:00]So it kind of tells you the intensity here starting to back off a bit.

[01:56:07]We have uh one uh wind report here down trees US 322 both directions between North Creek Road and Copeland School Road uh lane restrictions. So we actually see the influence of those straight line winds creating some wind damage, creating some down trees, uh lines pushing out of Wilmington, Delaware and heading into southern New Jersey. Again, we're going to keep an eye on this line because of the environment that's in place here. Uh that is very favorable for the potential for tornadoes. After this one, we're going to shut down because after that, pretty much run the mill showers and thunderstorms and that's pretty much it. So, uh the rest of the evening, let's take a look at the um new European guidance here.

[01:56:59]So you get your showers and thunderstorms moving through tonight with the cold front into tomorrow morning. Lingering showers tomorrow. Not much in the way of thunderstorms, but still lingering showers. And then after that, you want some good news. Let's look at some good news. Thursday all the way on into the weekend into Sunday, beautiful weather conditions. So if you have any outdoor plans, I got some good news for you. We're talking about 70s, 80s, low humidity, very enjoyable conditions. So once we get through these thunderstorms, we start to trend towards excellent weather conditions for the rest of the week. And hey, live chat tomorrow is going to be interesting. May only be an hour long. Hopefully my voice holds up. Uh but um probably focus more on El Nino than anything else. I know I'm going to get questions about the winter. It's going to happen. It it always does. Um but uh okay, serious question. Uh let's see here.

[01:58:04]New word. Let me just check to see life go great heavy raining queens.

[01:58:14]Let's see.

[01:58:17]It's got some stuff here on YouTube. Let me just check it out.

[01:58:21]Um, and thank you to the viewers that are on Twitch as well. I appreciate it.

[01:58:29]Uh, so far the cell around Morstown is not has not reached the ability to spit up, which is great news. Um, thank you for this. It's like holding our hands through this, which I needed.

[01:58:50]Well, you're welcome. Uh, Newark, Delaware is getting slammed. Yeah, they are. Very heavy rainfall. Um, I'm near one of the formed one that formed in Calwell, New Jersey.

[01:59:03]I'm a few towns over. Uh, do I Let's see. What do I do if another one forms near me?

[01:59:14]You'll be all right. Uh, don't worry.

[01:59:18]and just, you know, if you if you don't want to drive in those storms, don't drive in them. Connecticut, though, is looking pretty dead. Um, Connecticut right now is as is is not a concern. In fact, I could probably take them out of this warning to be honest with you. Um, let me go back to the radar here. Let me see if I got a Connecticut radar here. One second.

[01:59:43]Let's see.

[01:59:48]I just go down to New York, Jersey.

[02:00:01]Here we go.

[02:00:03]So, right now, no sign of any type of tornadic thunderstorms anywhere. Um, this is all straight line winds.

[02:00:13]Take a look at the soundings here in western Connecticut and you have winds that are veering but your cape value is getting killed here.

[02:00:28]Okay. So this is why the warm front's lifting through. Uh very marginal severe potential here and your your this part right here. You see this right here? This is limiting your thunderstorm development because this is a stable layer in the lower parts of the atmosphere. So, anytime you have a stable environment in place around uh uh basically anywhere like in Connecticut like that, it pretty much kills your thunderstorm potential. Still heavy rainfall potential. This line's going to produce some very heavy rainfall. Notice though, we're not seeing a lot of lightning with these thunderstorms now. So, we're seeing everything kind of back off in terms of focus.

[02:01:11]And the reason why when we take a look at the water vapor satellite picture, in fact, hold it. This, let me go to satellite on this.

[02:01:22]Okay. So, this is called the water vapor satellite picture. So, it allows me to see the upper level winds. And we'll look at a couple of different uh observations with this. So when you see this signal here, this means that all your strongest lifting with the upper level low is all focused towards Syracuse and heading up towards Burlington. So it kind of pushes your best lifting and dynamics away from Connecticut. So again, we have our line here. This focuses everything towards the southern Mid-Atlantic and we're caught in between.

[02:01:59]So, let's take a look at observations and we'll do upper level and do 300 mibar winds.

[02:02:09]And you can see that focus here. See how the jet streak it gets enhanced up here and we're kind of caught in between 500 millibars. We do vorticity 500 millibars. You can see that everything's swinging in towards us and then we get that separation.

[02:02:27]Let's see at uh 700 millibars cyclonic vorticity it's all lifting away from us. So these are all signs that hey we're shifting away from the severe potential and we're shifting more towards a heavy rain potential and our severe potential is pretty much focused now down here.

[02:02:53]Notice now Pennsylvania, we no longer have We had a severe thunderstorm watch here. This is dead now. Severe thunderstorm watch is dead here. It's been taken out of northeastern Pennsylvania. Scranton, you're done.

[02:03:09]This is pretty much going to get cut out. So, you can see everything kind of getting cut down. Don't be surprised if this whole whole area gets cut down from this from the tornado watch as well, especially once this line goes through.

[02:03:22]It's kind of the all clear, but look at this. It's all getting it's all getting uh reduced the coverage zone.

[02:03:33]So, I'm willing to bet probably in the next 45 minutes to an hour the tornado watching get cut down for Reading.

[02:03:41]It's already done for Lancaster.

[02:03:44]We'll see that in Philadelphia. The primary lines moving through again.

[02:03:48]We're seeing some intensification with this line, but no signs of any type of turning in the winds at all.

[02:03:57]But if you're in central New Jersey and southern New Jersey, this line is producing very strong straight line winds. So that certainly is potential in that respect.

[02:04:12]Um, let's see here.

[02:04:22]Let me go back to relative and let me zoom in on this around Philadelphia.

[02:04:32]Moving in towards Tabernacle, Vorhees Township. Very impressive storm here.

[02:04:39]One inch size hail is being record being reported via the radar. 60 mph winds.

[02:04:47]No turning though. So not tornatic.

[02:04:50]Not a lot of lightning with this too.

[02:04:52]That's kind of surprising.

[02:04:55]So if you are around Cherry Hill, let me know if this cell produced any lightning for you.

[02:05:10]So far, not much.

[02:05:16]Got the rain in Queens.

[02:05:19]See if there's any observations here.

[02:05:24]Second thunderstorm Stanford. 1.2 inches of rain.

[02:05:30]Impressive. Just under five and a half inches for the day.

[02:05:36]and some basement flooding unfortunately.

[02:05:39]Man, that's rough.

[02:05:42]That is that that could be a real annoyance. You know what I mean?

[02:05:46]Remember we had some water down the basement?

[02:05:49]Not fun.

[02:05:51]Go. So, we zoom out. The thunderstorm that we were watching around Oldbridge didn't have any circulation to it.

[02:06:00]Didn't uh progress any further. is now moving in a far more stable environment.

[02:06:05]Um, pretty much producing heavy rainfall for Manhattan down through Staten Island, uh, towards northern Mammoth County that will continue to march through, uh, Long Island with some thunderstorms, but doesn't look like anything turning. Uh, let's take a look at the sounding for Queens.

[02:06:26]See what that looks like here. Okay, so this is a huge signal here. You see this right here? That is a huge sign of a stable environment. This is going to kill your thunderstorm potential. You still have veering winds absolutely, but that's and you know, if you can get enough lifting, you could still support a tornado out of this, but that's really going to limit your threat here. But again, this line coming through after this comes through, you're done. You're done in eastern Pennsylvania. You're done in Straburg. You're almost done in northern New Jersey. Um towards the Hudson River Valley. After this, you're pretty much done.

[02:07:11]Same thing for western Connecticut.

[02:07:14]We'll watch this line very carefully.

[02:07:17]This is pretty much the final thing. I would say southeastern Pennsylvania, Reading, Philadelphia. Now you're pretty much dealing with heavy rainfall. That's it. Same thing for the suburbs west of Philadelphia.

[02:07:32]So, it's all pretty much coming to an end. We did verify the watch this time.

[02:07:38]That is for sure.

[02:07:44]We just got a new window alert. Let's see what this said. Philadelphia SPC.

[02:07:49]Multiple reports of wires down around Maple Shade around Philadelphia, the western suburbs of Philadelphia, New Jersey, just to north of Cherry Hill with this cell that is now marching through Lim Lumberton.

[02:08:07]There's our thunderstorm rumbling. It's finally getting here. But pretty much around Trenton, it's just heavy rainfall. I mean, not the best for rush hour traffic, but still just pretty much heavy rainfall.

[02:08:21]>> Things seem to stop, but still our internet went off.

[02:08:24]>> That is true. It doesn't take much to lose the internet. Real more like the power around here.

[02:08:30]>> Yes.

[02:08:34]>> Yeah. Here's the thing around Freehold, right? Is that this is why we had the generator. we'll get the power back, but that still doesn't mean we'll always get the internet back. So, it can it's kind of hit or miss.

[02:08:50]I'm thinking about investing in uh in that the what's it called? The internet from Tesla in a couple years just to have just to have another option as far as like if we lose internet for like days like with a hurricane or whatever, you know, that could definitely be something to consider.

[02:09:15]That could be a business investment write off in taxes.

[02:09:22]>> Uh 60 mph winds uh with this cell. So now we're moving into central and southern New Jersey.

[02:09:32]And we have um again, you know, we're starting to see uptick in the lightning here around southern New Jersey. So, I think now we're going to be focusing on this line here.

[02:09:44]This one right here. Let me see if I can draw that.

[02:09:49]So, this is the line we're going to be watching here as it's heading towards the Jersey Shore.

[02:10:00]And the reason why is that we're seeing clearly a reintensification of this line. We're not really seeing that anywhere else.

[02:10:09]on here. You're seeing some thunderstorms, but nothing that's reaching severe level all around New York City. This is all just heavy rainfall, some rumbles of thunder.

[02:10:18]That's about it. Long Island, you're pretty much done. Just your running thunderstorm. Same thing for around uh Connecticut.

[02:10:29]No sign of any severe thunderstorm warnings. Straburg, you're done. Just rain, that's it.

[02:10:35]So, we could probably see this get cut down. This whole uh area being warned.

[02:10:41]I mean, should I say watched like Allentown, Reading pretty much done with that watch at this point. Probably see that get cut down.

[02:10:52]So, now we're just dealing with these this cluster right here. If we see a another tornado, it's going to be coming out of this. Now, what's interesting now we're watching this, seeing another line of thunderstorms here. Now, sometimes when you get thunderstorms here starting to lift north and this line coming in from the west, sometimes that could create turning on its own. So, we're going to be watching this interaction very carefully over the next 20 minutes or so to see whether or not this takes shape.

[02:11:28]You see definitely signs of a bow echo sign here.

[02:11:35]You also see that right here. Very nicely done.

[02:11:43]Very nice line here.

[02:11:52]So now it's just a matter of seeing this part through.

[02:12:00]So essentially once this line hits the Jersey Shore, we're going to be coming to an end with the live coverage because even with that, the biggest tell that you could have that that my idea is working out that this is it is the fact that they cancelled the watch out here in State College. Done. You know, that in itself tells you everything you need to know about uh where we're at now. And again, we just step back here.

[02:12:32]Take a look at the duration the past three hours.

[02:12:40]You can see this whole process.

[02:12:43]Step on through.

[02:13:02]So you can see the thunderstorms as they come through. Now it's getting a little bit weaker.

[02:13:19]back to 30 minutes again.

[02:13:26]Now we're pretty much down to here. This thunderstorm complex moves into Reton Bay. It should weaken pretty quickly.

[02:13:35]No longer a warn thunderstorm out here, but some very heavy downpours heading through northern parts of Long Island.

[02:13:42]Nothing out in Connecticut.

[02:13:46]Nothing out here either. Nothing warned, just very heavy rainfall. Not much lightning either.

[02:13:53]So now we're pretty much down to here.

[02:13:55]And notice as we look at the southern Mid-Atlantic, look at the intensity of the thunderstorms through central Delaware, through Maryland, down towards Virginia.

[02:14:08]And then here's our real cluster that we were watching originally uh around West Virginia diving towards Virginia here.

[02:14:16]Look at all the lightning associated with it. Several tornadoes associated with this cluster. This is all was focusing towards Washington.

[02:14:25]And that's what pretty much kills our severe thunderstorm threat.

[02:14:31]And then here comes our cold front.

[02:14:33]Again, some severe thunderstorms during the uh early evening hours, but we've lost our potential out here.

[02:14:43]So, in our sounding out here in central Pennsylvania, our cape is only at 484, right? So that means anything that marches through it's pretty much dead.

[02:15:01]Let's see here. Got some more stuff here on YouTube.

[02:15:07]So far there's no spin. There's no spin.

[02:15:17]Let's see here.

[02:15:19]Uh, I wouldn't be outside New York City right now with the heavy rainfall. Yep.

[02:15:23]Starling. Uh, I'm in far northwestern Burlington County adjacent to Trenton. Are we getting just rain because substance? No, you you're actually getting a strong thunderstorm literally marching in right now. Uh, some lightning thunder, but mostly rain and lighter winds.

[02:15:44]Tornado was confirmed. Uh, now I'm not Fort Knox. I no idea, but a tornado was confirmed in the area.

[02:15:56]All right, so let's again go back to the Philadelphia radar.

[02:16:02]Pretty much that's what we're going to be focusing on until we end because all the other areas pretty much are done with severe threat with tornado threat especially.

[02:16:17]And we'll go to DIIX, which is actually working. Fingers crossed.

[02:16:22]And so this whole structure is taking on more of a bow structure here than anything turnic.

[02:16:29]In case anyone thinks that there's any turning, there is not. There is no sign of turning. You don't have any of the red and green. No Christmas colors. This is all green, which means it's all one direction, which means it's all straight line winds. very strong winds. You're pushing close to 50 miles per hour on the radar. Uh so you could be dealing with 60 mile per hour wind gusts here with some with these thunderstorms, which is why it's warned as severe, but uh any wind damage you get is going to be via straight line winds, not anything tornatic. Uh definitely downburst wind gusts definitely a possibility here. Um but no sign of any type of uh circulation at all. Just taking a look at the uh uh storm relative velocity. No sign there. Definitely an outflow boundary right here. So don't be surprised ahead of these thunderstorms towards like Winslow Township, Elmer, Deerfield, Newfield, uh Vinland, Vinland. Um uh that you get some strong wind gusts here out ahead of this thunderstorm.

[02:17:39]Some winds picking up here offshore Mammoth County and uh Ocean counties.

[02:17:45]Pretty much looking like it's lining up for heavy rainfall. Looks like we're going to miss the brunt in Mammoth County. Ocean County, watch out for this storm heading towards central Ocean County after it's marching through Burlington County. Uh if you're in Philadelphia, pretty much just rain.

[02:18:00]You're done. Southeastern Pennsylvania, just rain, you're done. No more severe thunderstorms showing up. Same thing for northern New Jersey. Same thing from the New York City metro. Just some heavier rainfall. Same thing out in Long Island.

[02:18:14]So now we're down to the very end here where we're focusing in on central and southern New Jersey, especially from basically southern Mammoth County all the way down through Kate May County.

[02:18:28]Some pretty strong cells here down towards Kate May County. Lightning showing up here. Not severe yet, but you have when you have these individual cells. Again, let's take a look at the sounding here in southern New Jersey in Kate May County. And you see the potential here for tornado and severe thunderstorms. Plenty of vertical wind shear, winds coming from the south. A little bit of inhibition here, a little bit of limitation in your severe threat because of the stable environment because you have winds coming right off of the cape off of Cape May. But still, look at your cape. Once you break that, you're talking about 4,214 jewels per kilogram, which means that it's loaded with energy. When we're talking about cape, think of it like um the amount of gas in your in your in your gas tank, right? When you're talking about 4,000 jewels per kilogram, you basically have a tank full of nitroglycerin. Okay? And now it's just a matter of whether or not you like the match. So, that's what we're watching here with some of these thunderstorms uh as they're approaching. So again, we have to watch out for these thunderstorms in in this area here especially, okay? Because you have thunderstorms lifting northward, some moving due west. And when you get that interaction and you have that outflow boundary right here, watch out for the interaction in here. It could get very, very active very quickly over the next 15 minutes here. So we're going to be watching this very carefully. If you're in Burlington, Ocean, Atlantic, Kate May, Cumberland, Salem, um this whole area, Gloucester, you talk about Winsow Township, Washington Township getting some very heavy rain now. Most hill again, Salem's just getting clipped.

[02:20:27]Let's see. Just checking to see if there's anything else.

[02:20:34]I would say that the National Weather Service will probably cut down the watch uh for Eastern Pennsylvania relatively soon.

[02:20:42]They probably want to get this whole thing cleared out before they even do that. But I would expect them to probably cut that down soon.

[02:20:52]Well, we just got a new message scale discussion. So, let's check this out.

[02:20:58]So, this just came out. Let's see what we got here.

[02:21:03]Summary. Uh, locally f we've been talking about this. Locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts is evident in southern New Jersey for next hour or two. Uh, so we've been focusing on this. So, now the SPC it does as well. Uh cluster thunderstorms are tracking eastward across far southwestern New Jersey with some low mid-level rotation evident in the last 15 minutes or so. These storms are moving into a quarter of strong heating destabilization of a very moist uh PBP which is basically the boundary layer. Um this is which basically the surface. Okay. So they're saying the surface is very warm, moist and unstable. This combined with long mostly straight photograph which we've been showing uh will favor a continued risk of organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts uh and possibly even a tornado here. So definitely some supercell structures showing up very nicely here. And now that has been updated that the basically the SPC out in Oklahoma is seeing the same threat I've been detailing for the past hour that hey if we're going to get something something additional is going to be in this area here again just extreme southern Mammoth County down through Kate May uh county and off towards the Delaware River in this area here. And also that area also lines up perfectly with the confluence here at 850 millib bar. So confluence at the lower levels means rising motion.

[02:22:40]Combine that with the upper level. Look at this. This just got updated.

[02:22:45]Okay. So look at the spread here being enhanced at the upper levels. Let's really zoom in. Okay. You see how it's kind of diverged out here? You see this here kind of like spreading here? That's all setting up over southern New Jersey.

[02:23:00]So this is setting up significant rising motion over southern New Jersey right where we've been highlighting and this is supporting see how this is enhanced this little speed here rapid exit of air rapid rising of air then we go into the lower levels at 850 millibars and you can see here confluence okay let's zoom in You can see the confluence here coming together.

[02:23:33]And let's zoom in even more down to the surface. And you can see that as well. Look at this. This is impressive. You're seeing all these areas of rising and sinking motion.

[02:23:47]You're getting this setup right here all lining together. So you have your your cold pool from your thunderstorms pushing southward. warm air moving in all various outflow boundaries all interacting. So you're getting all these boundaries interacting and then you step back and here comes the thunderstorms blossoming under this environment. So you got outflow boundary, seabbze front, outflow boundary from these thunderstorms, cold pool pushing southward, everything coming together, all lining up again.

[02:24:25]And if you're in Mammoth County, really anywhere north of Mammoth County, you're pretty much done with this severe threat. Heavy rainfall, yes. Flooding potential, yes, still there. Um, but as far as the severe thunderstorm threat, tornado threat, you're done. The focus is now here.

[02:24:46]And the question is as we go forward, excuse me, is whether or not we see any turning here. Now again, thus far, no sign at all of any rotation at all.

[02:25:03]So far, everything here is straight line wind gusts. Everything here is downburst wind gusts. So, we don't have any sign here of any tornatic turning. But what we have to watch out for is when this cell interacts with this cell, whether or not that leads to a turning motion in the atmosphere and thus the thunderstorm potential.

[02:25:32]And we'll know if we see more intensification if we start to see a lot more lightning firing up here.

[02:25:39]So, we'll probably get some rumbling and thunder and some heavy rainfall here.

[02:25:44]Uh Trenton, you're pretty much done.

[02:25:46]Just heavy rainfall. Philadelphia, you're done. Philadelphia, if you're going to the Phillies game, there'll probably be maybe a delay, but you you'll play that the game will be played. Um again, the Yankees, I mean, it's good that they probably, you know, postponed it rather than put them at risk, you know, but uh you could have probably played that game tonight. Just saying.

[02:26:15]Let's see.

[02:26:18]So, we should see another warning get extended over Ocean County, the rest of Burlington and Ocean County shortly.

[02:26:29]Probably stay south of Mammoth. It might do it like something like this. But this cell's definitely definitely more of a bow structure signal. And again, you could see the outflow boundary here. So, what's going to be interesting with this outflow boundary when it interacts with the these this line of thunderstorms here uh to see if it creates any turning motion.

[02:26:55]Uh let's see here. There you are showing the sun came out since you started live coverage and just cloud it up on Saturday. You explained the sun out causes instability. Is that the same case? Yes. Yes, there's definitely that aspect to it. Absolutely, John.

[02:27:15]There's definitely that aspect to it.

[02:27:17]Uh, let me see.

[02:27:21]Short range models did do pretty good job on this. Hey, even the RRFS did pretty good, at least on detailing the timing of this.

[02:27:31]And uh, just to go back, where is my HR?

[02:27:35]Here we are.

[02:27:38]Again, this lines up nicely with after this comes through, we still have some scy showers and thunderstorms, but the worst is pretty much over.

[02:27:54]I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to a very quiet weekend.

[02:28:02]Oh, by the way, if you're going to the Mammoth County uh fair, excellent weekend for the entire fair.

[02:28:07]Temperatures comfortable in the 70s and 80s.

[02:28:11]So, that's going to be great, right?

[02:28:17]What do you think?

[02:28:21]I don't know.

[02:28:29]Yep. So far, no sign of any tornadoes.

[02:28:33]So, that's good.

[02:28:39]Now, we just pretty much wait to see if this actually pans out at all over southern New Jersey.

[02:28:46]The line is moving pretty fast. You're pretty much, if you're along the Delaware River, you're pretty much done now. We're pretty much focused right here, right in Ocean, Ocean County, Burlington County, Atlantic County, Kate May County, uh Salem, Cumberland, this whole area right here is at the final end of this severe threat.

[02:29:15]Oh, hold it. We just got a tornado warning just issued around Wildwood.

[02:29:21]Let's zoom in again. This is the problem with some of these.

[02:29:26]Um, let's see here. Southwestern Kate May County in southern New Jersey.

[02:29:31]Tornado warning. A severe thunderstorm capable of producing tornado was located over Scotch Bonnet over or 9 miles northeast of Cape May moving to the east at 25 miles per hour. It's producing tornado quarter size hail. Let's take a look at the vertical winds here and uh the velocity. And you're seeing a slight indication here, right here, trying to spin up here.

[02:30:00]Not very impressive, but apparently strong enough for a warning.

[02:30:07]That's heading towards Avalon, by the way, and lifting to the northeast.

[02:30:12]that's riding right along the seabbze front that we that's typical around here and still the outflow boundary still out here not interacting yet. Again, we're watching how these thunderstorms out here could potentially interact and set up another tornado warning, but we're pretty much So, we had our third tornado warning now down towards Kate May County, uh just around the Kate May Courthouse, lifting up towards uh Avalon and uh to the west of Stone Harbor.

[02:30:47]And take a look at the radar on that.

[02:30:49]Very intense thunderstorm. Notice how the lightning really picked up as well with this.

[02:30:55]The good news that that looks like it's rapidly pushing off the coast. We got other thunderstorms here. So again, we're seeing that focus here over southern New Jersey.

[02:31:08]Mammoth County, you're done. So I'm going to say Mammoth County done. Middle Sex Morris, you're done.

[02:31:15]Now we're pretty much talking about central Ocean County, Burlington County on southward Phil immediate Philadelphia metro.

[02:31:25]You're pretty much done aside from heavy rainfall.

[02:31:31]Then we take a step back, see not much else going on to the west of us. The thunderstorms that were moving into northern New Jersey have pretty much started to collapse.

[02:31:43]We're seeing flash flood warnings up towards uh Queens and northern Long Island with another round of heavy rainfall, but no severe thunderstorms.

[02:32:04]Oh, this time it is not Candace's fault, believe it or not.

[02:32:16]But here we go. This is it. This is pretty much this is pretty much going to set up the end of this live coverage with this line. Once this line here reaches the coast, we'll come to an end and we'll finish uh because then our severe threat's done. So again, uh, looks like we started at 3:30. Probably 6:30 is probably going to be the end of this.

[02:32:47]>> Uhoh.

[02:32:51]Okay.

[02:32:54]Um, let's see here.

[02:33:00]More thunderstorms come through here.

[02:33:05]H I'm surprised they haven't extended the warning out over eastern Burlington County or Ocean County yet with this line.

[02:33:15]I wonder if it's fallen below severe levels. It's not producing as much lightning.

[02:33:24]Let's see if there's any change in the velocity here.

[02:33:28]So, we still have that very weak tornado signal out here.

[02:33:36]Honestly, I'm a little surprised it was warm, but there it is.

[02:33:41]So, if we pause it right there, that's what they're picking up right here.

[02:33:52]heading right towards it's just to the north west of uh Stone Stone Harbor and it's moving towards Avalon.

[02:34:06]So, right right in here, but I can see it collapsing just as easily.

[02:34:15]And then the other thunderstorms right now, everything's just straight line wind gusts. No sign of any type of t turning at all.

[02:34:31]Central northeast and we got some heavy rainfall in short but no wind. Yeah. I mean honestly they weren't seeing the uh much in way of any type of significant uh impacts.

[02:34:57]Go back here.

[02:35:01]So, yeah. Oh, wow. It's actually falling below severe levels. So, the storm that's moving through Burlington County is just your run in the middle thunderstorm now. Still some strong winds, but it's falling below severe levels. So, that's great news. We'll see if it gets reworned. Um, we still got a severe thunderstorm warning around uh around Woodston Town. Woodstown. God, I'm doing good. Uh, Washington Township heading towards Elmer, but that that storm, this one, this looks more like a heavy rainfall threat now falling below severe levels. That's great news.

[02:35:40]Here's the outflow boundary from that storm.

[02:35:44]more showers and thunderstorms here. The thunderstorms are over Delaware. They're like they're going to be pushing into southern New Jersey, opening up the potential for more severe thunderstorms.

[02:35:55]But again, once this part blows through, it's done.

[02:36:02]So now you can again and Philadelphia if you're in northwestern Burlington County all the counties right on the immediate Delaware River everywhere around here like uh Deppford Township, Vorhees Township, uh Will William Burough Township, these areas you still got a heavy rainfall threat but your severe threat is done.

[02:36:30]We'll wait and see if this gets reworned as it's moving into Ocean County, but right now this thunderstorm's below severe levels. We got heavy rain moving into Mammoth County, possibly maybe uh some flooding, but nothing severe.

[02:36:48]And then we got Hamilton Township and our lone tornado warning in the area down towards Cape Bay County, which again, this we have to zoom in all the way.

[02:37:03]This is our circulation.

[02:37:05]It looks like it's already reaching the coast as it's approaching. It looks like it's already uh reaching the coast here. So, it might actually uh push off over the ocean as a water spout next.

[02:37:20]It's definitely clearing the region.

[02:37:24]So, probably in about another 15 minutes, it'll be pushing off the coast.

[02:37:30]And again, no sign of any other type of tornatic turning at all in any of these thunderstorms so far.

[02:37:41]There's some thunder around us.

[02:37:46]should see some heavy rainfall pick up around Freehold around our neck of the woods.

[02:37:53]>> Atlantic City is quiet. Not much going on. You have a tornado warning to the south of you, well to the south of you. Um, you have thunderstorms off to the west of you, but Atlantic City itself, there is nothing going on.

[02:38:15]nothing uh significant yet.

[02:38:24]So, as far as answering, I primary I just so everyone understands I answer all the questions for premium members and I answer the best questions in the live chat in the public. So if I've already answered something or someone asks something repeatedly, I don't, you know, I focus I don't really focus on it.

[02:38:47]>> Someone on YouTube said they just heard first round of thunder.

[02:38:52]>> Yes, definitely. Uh you're probably hearing some of the the thunder that's approaching uh the coast here in southern New Jersey. No severe, nothing severe at all. The thunderstorm we were watching that was moving through Burlington County has fallen below severe levels.

[02:39:13]We have one lone severe thunderstorm warning out in southwest New Jersey and our tornado warning down towards uh Kate May County.

[02:39:29]Let's see here.

[02:39:40]I'm just checking to see if there's anything.

[02:39:50]And hey, another good news is that this is all this rain is going to clear clean out the atmosphere, which is great.

[02:39:57]So, improving air quality, that's for sure.

[02:40:02]So now the line has reached northeastern Mammoth County. So you're pretty much done in northeastern Mammoth County.

[02:40:10]Just rain. New York City, you're done.

[02:40:13]Northern New Jersey, done. Long Island, you're done.

[02:40:18]Uh just eastern Long Island, just some heavier rainfall, some lightning. Um heavy rainfall starting to move into central Mammoth County. Looks like the clouds are lowering. So, expect some heavy rainfall as we go through the rush hour. Uh, let's see. The severe line is now approaching uh Ocean County now. Well, not severe, just a thunderstorm line itself.

[02:40:54]Let's see.

[02:40:58]Let me just check around on observations. I'm going to jump on X real fast.

[02:41:05]See if there's any new observations here.

[02:41:09]And nope. Okay, good.

[02:41:16]We got the warning here.

[02:41:20]So, we got the questions. Twitch. Oh, let me just >> Oh, okay. I haven't seen the line in that radar before and always wonder what it meant. That's the outflow boundary, meaning cold air leaving the circulation or it's the outflow boundary is rain cooled air racing out ahead of the thunderstorm. Um because what happens that the raincooled air crashes to the surface and expands outward. So this this line here is basically cooler air racing out. And usually what happens is that it gets very windy when you when this line passes through. Uh as we can see, oh, we just got a new severe thunderstorm warning for basically that line moving into uh Ocean County. 60 mile per hour winds. Uh hail. No sign of any type of tornado though. So that's great, great news.

[02:42:17]So here is the straight line winds with that thunderstorm heading towards Manchester Township, Tom's River, and eventually Seaside Heights.

[02:42:29]Here's the outflow boundary.

[02:42:34]Rain cooled air.

[02:42:42]Let's see here.

[02:42:44]I'm working on the pronunciations is I'm also a little I gotta get something to drink again. I ran out of something to drink.

[02:42:51]>> What do you >> um I I'll do an energy drink.

[02:42:57]>> Yeah.

[02:43:00]>> Thank you.

[02:43:04]So, this is heading through. Once this passes through Ocean County, you're done. Like I said, Mammoth County, you're done. And so now we're pretty much focused here.

[02:43:16]Uh let's see here.

[02:43:22]We still have the tornado warning around Kate May County. Uh looks like the circulation though is moving off the coast. It's moving over Avalon right now.

[02:43:33]Thank you.

[02:43:36]So let me just pop this open. Get something to drink.

[02:43:44]We're starting to see rain. Probably get some heavy rain moving in any second now around here.

[02:43:48]>> Just started.

[02:43:50]>> Yeah. And we're starting to see um so basically south of Ocean View, Sevalon right in here is where that circulation starting to pass off the coast. I haven't seen any observations at the surface, like any any videos or anything uh to confirm it yet, but this is all driven by radar.

[02:44:14]So, this should be cancelled pretty soon once this pushes off the coast. So, this should be done pretty soon.

[02:44:23]And again, we're not seeing anything now. We're about to see the interaction between this outflow boundary and this thunderstorm cluster. And now we just got a new severe thunderstorm warning.

[02:44:36]Uh, actually, I'm sorry, this one's about to go. The new one's out here.

[02:44:41]Basically driving right into Manchester Township with this thunderstorm line.

[02:44:48]Lightning is definitely picking up with this. So, it looks like it's pulsing up just as it's heading towards uh, central Ocean County. So, if you're in Manchester, Tom's River, let's zoom in.

[02:45:00]Lake Hurst. Hopefully the radar will be okay again.

[02:45:05]Uh Presidential Lake Estates, you're seeing the thunderstorm now. And once this goes through again, you're done. So much of northern Burlington County, done. Just rainfall. Uh Fores, Cherry Hill, you're done. Philadelphia, done.

[02:45:24]We're starting to see his rain now starting to pick up here.

[02:45:29]And this is where we come to an end for this. This is where we start to end this. Uh oh, we just got a new tornado warning down towards Wildwood. New cell that just moved off of the Delaware Bay.

[02:45:44]Let's take a look at this.

[02:45:47]And there it looks like they're pointing in on this circulation right here.

[02:45:56]Interesting.

[02:45:59]Let's see what they're saying here.

[02:46:01]Radar indicated uh severe thunderstorm cable producing a tornadoes located near west Cape May or near Kate May moving northeast at 15 milesPH.

[02:46:14]Uh let's see here. flying debris dangerous location Kate May near North Wildwood.

[02:46:24]So, it's capable of producing a tornado, but again, we haven't gotten any we have not gotten any actual uh observations or any uh verification of any tornado. So, if anyone's around Wildwood, right, and they could see anything, let us know.

[02:46:44]But right now, you know, we got this circulation right here. We got this circulation that's moving off. So now this circulation is again going have to lift up towards Avalon and it's going to be basically track making the same track as the previous thunderstorm.

[02:47:00]So this is all going to continue to lift northward until this line and this trough reaches the coast. Once this reaches the coast, then everything that is blossoming over southern New Jersey pretty much comes to an end.

[02:47:26]Drought is not over yet. I wish, but we're getting there. Definitely moving in the right direction.

[02:47:35]Heavy rainfall now in freehold. That marks the end of a severe threat here.

[02:47:44]And again, just noting the line here is moving at a pretty quick pace here. So, we're done in in extreme western New Jersey. Extreme southwest New Jersey pretty much done. Everything else moving through is dead. Um, so now we're pretty much right in here.

[02:48:10]We'll see if we get another tornado try to take shape around here. If there's going to be something additional with this line, it's going to be as this interacts with this line here. So, we're going to be watching.

[02:48:24]Let me zoom in here.

[02:48:27]Okay. right in this area north of Washington Township, south of Tabernacle Township. Right in here could be some interactions, possibly some turning here. Looking at the velocity, keep an eye right here.

[02:48:49]This right here, the northern edge of this cell here, interacting with this cell here.

[02:48:58]We could actually get something blossoming here over the next 10 minutes or so.

[02:49:06]Now, sometimes when you get this clash, sometimes they cancel each other out and they collapse and then sometimes when they interact, they can intensify. It's just a matter of how they interact.

[02:49:17]Think of it like uh like when you're watching ice skating, right? When the two ice skaters, they move move together just right. They do this lift in the air and they get tens and even the West German judge gives you a 10. However, sometimes it doesn't line up just right and they cancel each other out. So, we'll watch that very carefully.

[02:49:37]Clearly, a little bit of a bow echo here trying to show up here. Some notches here showing up here with this line as it's intensifying.

[02:49:50]Northern Ocean County, you're done.

[02:49:53]Northern Burlington County is done. Now we're just focused in here.

[02:50:00]The tornado warning, the the initial tornado warning in Kate May County has been cancelled, but we have this one still that we're dealing with over lower. And don't be surprised if this warning gets extended back into Avalon again.

[02:50:21]So, Kate May County is having a very, very busy uh evening, right in the middle of rush hour, wouldn't you know it, line of thunderstorms here. So, uh let's see.

[02:50:39]Let's see what this looks like. A loft here.

[02:50:49]Yeah. Yeah. you we're losing all of our support going forward.

[02:50:58]So we're seeing again all your lifting out here substance here your lifting is getting refocus down towards the southern mid-Atlantic. So southern mid-Atlantic and the St. Lawrence River Valley and we're going to miss out in the rest of this. So, we're all pretty much the idea is starting to really really unfold very nicely. Expect for this watch to get cancelled and cut down um probably in the next 30 to 60 minutes once this clears off.

[02:51:34]Nice rainfall here.

[02:51:54]But this is not going to go to 900 p.m.

[02:51:56]This is pretty much near an end here.

[02:52:00]So now we are seeing the thunderstorms marching through Ocean County now and they're halfway through Burlington County.

[02:52:13]And again, I'm watching this one right here. Take a look at this.

[02:52:24]Yeah, take a look at this right here.

[02:52:27]Don't be surprised if we get a tornado warning out of this because this is starting getting very close. Now you have it's it's interacting with multiple boundaries here.

[02:52:45]Hopefully it just cancels each other out. But this is looking very healthy moving out of Atlantic count uh township over southern Burlington County and heading towards Ocean County. So now we're starting to see this convergence here starting to take shape.

[02:53:15]Meanwhile, our tornado warning down here.

[02:53:20]See the lifting coming through.

[02:53:24]And this is what they're watching out here. It's moving into Kate Bay and lifting northward.

[02:53:36]And that is probably going to lose some of its punch because this atmosphere after this rain, after this thunderstorm, a little bit more stable atmosphere lifting into well. Notice it goes north and now it's starting to shift more to the northeast.

[02:54:00]So now it's it's we're about a couple minutes from seeing this cell merge with this thunderstorm line. Sometimes it cancels them out and you just end up with heavy rainfall and then sometimes it enhances one of the cells and you end up with a very powerful thunderstorm with the potential for tornadoes.

[02:54:23]So we're going to watch this very carefully over southern New Jersey. Most of central New Jersey is done. Uh we're just watching this one cell moving through Ocean County.

[02:54:36]And hopefully with lightning, the radar is centered here. That's why you're seeing this circle here, right?

[02:54:44]Hopefully the lightning doesn't hit the radar this time.

[02:54:59]Oh boy.

[02:55:04]And here we go. Very, very close.

[02:55:10]By the way, this thunderstorm is starting to collapse. So, this is an indication where this thunderstorm starts to interact with this thunderstorm and they start to cancel each other out.

[02:55:21]So, don't be surprised this warning gets dropped as the storm lifts northward.

[02:55:26]Here we have this line and we'll see whether or not we get that same thing that's happening down here.

[02:55:36]We're starting to see a degrading of the structure of the thunderstorm line and now we just deal with heavy rainfall. No severe uh should I say wind severe thunderstorm warning down towards Delaware. Nothing else over eastern Pennsylvania. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Devo void. Just some showers.

[02:55:55]That's about it.

[02:55:58]So, this is pretty much it. Once this goes through, once this reached the coastline, we're done.

[02:56:08]Now, we got the outflow boundary.

[02:56:13]Right. Exactly, Ford. You're absolutely right.

[02:56:18]Uh, let me jump back.

[02:56:21]Okay, so we're good here.

[02:56:25]X.

[02:56:33]Okay, we are coming to an end here.

[02:56:37]Almost there.

[02:56:46]Should be about 2 minutes old. And you can see we're the next the next radar update. We should see this interaction here. And what this looks like, which right now looks like good potential here that we don't see any further intensification.

[02:57:07]Now what could happen here is that as this interacts that it cancels each other out and then we just deal with heavy rainfall and that's it.

[02:57:17]So we will know very very shortly exactly what we have going on moving forward.

[02:57:30]Just updated. No sign of any turning at all. Great news.

[02:57:37]So it looks like this is starting to weaken. This is straight line winds.

[02:57:41]Live lightning in central Ocean County.

[02:57:44]Uh heading towards Tom's River.

[02:57:49]Looks like it'll stay south of Lakewood Township, south of Jackson Township, rapidly heading towards the coast.

[02:58:04]The thunderstorms now interacting over southern Burlington. No sign of any further intensification. Note the lightning is really starting to fall off. Pretty much dealing with just heavy rainfall.

[02:58:17]Still have pretty good severe thunderstorms down around Delaware. And that's still until this this whole section pushes east, you're still going to have that threat around Ocean County, should I say around southern New Jersey, uh especially around Kate May County.

[02:58:35]Southern Delaware has cleared out though, mostly because this line was so strong around o to south of Ocean City, it pretty much has crushed any development over southern uh Delaware. So what that means is that once this lifts northward for Kate May, this right here is your end of your severe threat. this setup with this turning motion right here.

[02:59:05]This is what we're watching. It's moving through Lower Township right now. So, Kate May Point, you're done. Kate May proper, you're done. Wildwood, you still got a little bit of weight through. This is now lifting through Lower Township, lifting northward towards the Villas, re Rio Grande, Whitesboro cuz there's nothing to your southwest, there's nothing to your west.

[02:59:37]It is done.

[02:59:41]And let's see here.

[02:59:44]So, a lot of southwestern New Jersey, your severe threat is pretty much done.

[02:59:48]We're watching a couple of these storms over northern Delaware that can still produce some severe thunderstorms heading towards, let's say, Hopewell Township. This one around Middleton around Delaware.

[03:00:04]And when we look at the sounding for Hamilton Township, again, still supportive, still got that wind shear, still have a very impressive cape. So, it still has a lot to work with until that line pulls out. Now, look to the west.

[03:00:25]Let's see if this is updated. 2000 less in Cape.

[03:00:30]You have a stable environment down at the coast. So, this kills your thunderstorm threat. And now your winds are all universally aligned. They're all uh unidirectional, one direction, west, southwest.

[03:00:47]West at the surface, southwest, everywhere else. That's why your tornado threat is dead.

[03:00:55]So that's what pretty much just kills this at the end.

[03:01:03]And right now we have one tornado warning and one severe thunderstorm warning and that's it around New Jersey.

[03:01:11]And we're watching the severe thunderstorm warning over northern Delaware to see if that gets extended into uh Vinland and Hopewell Township and Commercial Township and Millville.

[03:01:41]the map. So far, nothing. There's clouds, thunder in the distance. Okay, so so far so good. Just reading John Vento Vento, I'll let you know. Oh, I'm right in that spot between Tom's River and Stanford on the map. Okay, so he's pretty much in this area here.

[03:02:08]See if he gets anything. This line's still producing looks like it's going to produce some pretty strong straight line winds. Now, since the thunderstorm's passing to uh the east of the radar, what happens is that the winds are all moving away from the radar. So, now you're just looking for solid red. So, if you have all solid red here and no signs of green, that means it's just all straight line winds with this cell and the thunderstorm complex. merger has uh unfolded over southern Burlington County to no development of any type of severe thunderstorms, but very heavy rainfall.

[03:02:58]So, let's take a look at what the hourly rainfall rate looks like on this.

[03:03:04]You can see starting to see the enhancement here.

[03:03:17]Meanwhile, our tornado thunderstorm, tornado warn thunderstorm rapidly lifting northward.

[03:03:25]And let's see if it still has any type of circulation. There's still a sign here right here. Probably the best circulation so far from this storm approaching the Villas.

[03:03:43]It is.

[03:03:45]Let's see if we can zoom in on this. Is right around Beayshore Road and rapidly lifting northward.

[03:04:02]But again, the good news that this thunderstorm is really, really bulky, really moving fast and it's starting to degrade.

[03:04:09]So that's that's a good sign there right here.

[03:04:19]Rapidly lifting northward.

[03:04:22]I would not be surprised if they dropped the tornado warning once it gets to about White uh Whitesboro.

[03:04:32]The thunderstorms further north are remaining below severe levels.

[03:04:40]And let's see here. Northern Delaware, Wilmington, you're done.

[03:04:48]And now we're just waiting for this line to get in get towards the Jersey Shore.

[03:04:56]I don't want to end it until I get this cleared out because this tornado warning, obviously, we don't want to end on a tornado warning still issued.

[03:05:11]But we got like 90% of the region cleared out. Now we just got this area right here basically right along the Jersey Shore.

[03:05:26]Let's see what's the question.

[03:05:29]Um, which one?

[03:05:41]>> Okay, let me go look for >> Oh, maybe I didn't get it yet.

[03:05:48]Let me refresh it. Should I refresh it?

[03:05:51]Oh, wait a minute. There it is. Okay, got it. Um, is what those heavyduty bands of lake effect snow look like on the radar in the winter?

[03:06:03]No, it's it's not. Um, lake effect snow bands typically are more linear. Uh, they're very much focused and they tend not to move all that much. Um, they have low-level convergent winds. Um, as far as like let's say it might look like something like this.

[03:06:25]Probably not as intense a precipitation rate.

[03:06:36]This is the weather top radar presentation. I just want to show this real fast just to kind of get a zoomed out look of this that um basically after this you're pretty much done at this point.

[03:06:54]So that pretty much locks that in. Now it's just a matter of just getting this line through.

[03:07:02]They cut down the tornado warning a bit.

[03:07:05]No longer in place in around Cape May.

[03:07:09]It probably be canled around Wildwood shortly considering the storm is lifting to the north of you. We'll see if they expand it into Middle Township in Avalon.

[03:07:20]But no, this is not how lake effect snow bands look. Um, lake effect snow bands typically are more like west to east.

[03:07:28]They tend to stay in the same location on the Great Lakes. Uh, and then they they pretty much push off and not push off, but they remain in place along the Great Lakes.

[03:07:50]Okay, so fire thunderstorm complex.

[03:07:55]This is probably going to get dropped as far as severe thunderstorm warning over Ocean County. It looks like it's losing its uh strength. The lightning starting to back off a bit. Probably once it reach Tom's River, it'll probably uh fall apart.

[03:08:10]No sign of any type of severe thunderstorm around uh southern uh Burlington County. Looks like that's losing its intensity.

[03:08:21]And we're just waiting to see whether this gets extended around northern Delaware to southern New Jersey, but looks like that's come to an end as well. So, this all should be coming to a close pretty soon.

[03:08:41]flights inbound to JFK area. So, increasingly getting diverted. That makes sense. You don't want to have thunderstorms fly into any of this turbulence here. LaGuardia is probably fine. Newark is probably fine. You could work your way around that, but JFK, not so much. At least not yet. Give it about 40 minutes.

[03:09:08]Let's see.

[03:09:21]Let's see. There's any other I'm just going to check to see on X there's any other watches or anything or or observations thus far. No, I just got I got nothing. Just some rain. very happy with this. I agree. Uh no, I will take rain any day. No, I don't need any tornadoes or wind gusts over 60 miles per hour or anything. Just give me rain. Uh we got a new severe thunderstorm warning now with our line that we saw emerge. Uh just 60 mile per hour winds. No sign of any type of turning with the thunderstorm. Radar indicated hail.

[03:10:12]Taking a look at this and it's all straight line winds.

[03:10:17]Now again with the radar centered here, what you'll see is this turn all red.

[03:10:24]That means the winds are all moving in one direction away from the radar. So when you get into here, what we look for is red and green together.

[03:10:34]And thus far, we're not seeing that. Um, yeah, no sign of a tornado there. The tornado signal that we saw down around Kate May, that is disappearing. So, I'm expecting this warning to be dropped pretty soon around Kate May. And I don't see any sign of that structure holding together uh lifting up towards Stone Harbor.

[03:10:59]So, that has come to an end.

[03:11:09]So, it looks like we're getting very >> covered here. You cover >> Yeah. Pennsylvania, >> just a little bit outside of that, but you know, >> don't do Kentucky. Not my thing. There are people who do national. I think that's too broad because they don't really understand the thes >> Well, yeah. You don't understand the the localized climate factors involved.

[03:11:51]Yeah. So, you really don't want I'm not I'm not I never was interested in doing national because national you kind of put you you end up putting it's like being a national sports cer. This is the best way of putting it. You know, like when you watch your team and you have your sports casters and they understand your team, especially with baseball. So, when the Yankees or the Mets are on and they you're the the announcers that are with your team, they understand your team, right? Then they get put on ESPN and the announcer says some ridiculous nonsense that you know isn't true about your team because you know that your bench player is hurt with a with a injury but they don't need to go into disableist. Meanwhile, some guy on the national telecast says, "Well, they'll probably go on to disable because they don't understand the inner parts of their of your team." It's the same thing with national forecasting. If you don't understand the fine little details in a region, you end up saying a lot of things that will end up being not true because you don't understand the climatology of that region. That's why I tend to stay away from national forecast outside of maybe like, you know, tracking like a hurricane or something of that nature.

[03:13:05]Um, but especially >> elsewhere and you're tuning in because curious and trying to learn or whatever, fine. But if you're expecting a forecast, >> nope, not gonna happen.

[03:13:17]>> Different country even like no.

[03:13:21]>> So, by the way, they just cut down the tornado watch. Uh they're basically lingering here because this line has to come through and they basically cut out all of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. So, now we're down to here and here. And if you're wondering, why are they keeping it here? They probably want to get this through. They don't want to cancel the watch and then have this come through and then have some rogue thunderstorm spin up. So once this clears, once this clears up here, you're pretty much going to be done. You got like one stronger storm around Pikipsy, so they're probably going to keep that in place until that clears out of of uh Connecticut, but you're essentially done here. Okay. I mean, we just look at the sounding up in Connecticut.

[03:14:12]You generate it and it's pretty much dead. Marginal severe at most. You don't even have the proper veing winds for it.

[03:14:20]Okay. You pretty much have unidirectional. So, you're pretty much done in Connecticut, but they're waiting for this to clear out.

[03:14:28]Same thing for the New York City metro.

[03:14:30]They'll probably be next to cut out.

[03:14:32]They cut out Mammoth. They cut out the rest of Northern New Jersey. And now we're pretty much down here with this final line. And once this clears out, we're pretty much done with this.

[03:14:46]So, uh, I'm still surprised that the warning here is still out here for around Wildwood, especially considering the storm is gone. It's to the north of you. Um, so that probably disappear pretty soon.

[03:15:06]I agree with you. I just I just moved here from South Texas. Wow. Welcome.

[03:15:12]You're going to enjoy the winters, that's for sure. And I would say the same exact thing, but I would see national forecasters about hurricanes versus our own local weather guy. Yep.

[03:15:22]See, like hurricanes, I can discuss like, hey, the storms intensifying this and that, but I don't understand like if it was hitting southern Texas, I don't I don't understand the river basins, how they flood, what type of rainfall is needed, uh whether there's any upslope factors, anything like that. Wouldn't know it. There's no way I would know it because that takes years to learn.

[03:15:47]I do want to say like for anybody who's like it's a bust >> again tornado watches and stuff being a bust is is is a good thing.

[03:15:58]>> Yes, >> that's a good thing. If you want that to verify, I strongly suggest you seek therapy.

[03:16:04]>> Yeah. Well, here's the thing, right?

[03:16:07]When you get a tornado watch, it doesn't mean every location in that watch is going to have a tornado, >> tornado risk, anything. Like, you shouldn't be wanting that to memorable, >> you would think. I mean, who the hell wants a tornado? I mean, are you sick?

[03:16:22]>> Oh, yeah. Probably a psychopath. Um, I get that there's chasers out there, but you don't want it to hit your house.

[03:16:29]Hello. Like, unless you don't pay for your house. I don't know. I don't know what that that line of thinking is.

[03:16:37]It's weird. That's what that line of thinking is. Okay, let's just put it what it is. It's weird. So, our final severe thunderstorm warning for Ocean County is now in place. Once this clears through, you're done. I'm waiting to get this to clear out. This tornado warning.

[03:16:56]Once that clears out, I think we'll pretty much end this because the velocity here, all the winds are all lining here to be straight line winds.

[03:17:08]>> Okay.

[03:17:11]You mention another state, another country.

[03:17:15]>> You know what? I go for Kentucky Fried Chicken.

[03:17:19]Uh, how about no one? How come no one talks about This is a good one. How come no one talks about climate change anymore? Are you serious? Yeah, plenty of people do when the weather has been more chaotic than ever. I don't know. I We certainly do. We certainly talk about climate change. It has nothing to do with this.

[03:17:40]This is just a severe thunderstorm event, right? This is mess scale. It's small scale. If you want to talk, we will talk about climate and uh and El Nino tomorrow with the live chat. We'll definitely talk about that. Um I don't think Fed understands uh probability.

[03:18:03]I Yeah, I think you severely do not understand probability. But anyway, we will talk about climate and the El Nino uh development tomorrow. So if you're interested in that, definitely join the live chat for tomorrow at 8:00 PM. We're going to be covering a lot about El Nino, but uh you know, we'll talk about all that stuff and answer your questions.

[03:18:26]I've never when it comes to climate, I've never been one to go with the worst case scenarios because um I'm not seeing us build a whole bunch of coal plants everywhere. If we were, definitely we would be dealing with the worst case scenario. Um, but I don't believe in scaring people to advance technology and science. Um, but is there climate change? Absolutely. You know, but uh we could talk about that tomorrow. Chasers and those kids who have YouTube channels preserve weather or psychos. They're literally cheering for tornadoes to develop. Yeah, I know.

[03:19:05]I mean, there's definitely indiv.

[03:19:08]Yes, there's certainly individuals out there that um their base their whole See, here's the difference between me and a lot of people is that my base is all about localized like getting my clients and my subscribers. I don't need a million people, right? I don't need I don't need to have the largest YouTube channel and I certainly don't need to have the most views. What I need to do is be able to basically provide competent weather information to my subscriber base, which supports everything I have here. And you don't need a million people and you don't need to scare people. There are people here that base their whole business off of YouTube algorithms. And so their whole job is to scare the hell out of you. So that way you watch their videos and then you have a million followers or 10 million followers and you have to make money off that advertisement. Only problem with that basis of building a business.

[03:20:12]>> Yeah, their business model is is is based on whether or not YouTube is going to pay them or not. So, yeah, it's not sustainable at all because I've seen this. I've done this. I've been doing this for 20 years. And if you do it based off of YouTube or X uh uh advertisement dollars, you're at the whim of whatever they want to do with changing their algorithm. So, >> we've seen the beginning of social media changes.

[03:20:41]>> Yes. Yes. We have I've seen it all. I mean, and you know, a lot of the people out there, yeah, they will give you a lot of flashy stuff and a lot of flashy uh uh videos and scare the hell out of you, but they won't be there for long. Hell, they might change their whole channel based on the algorithm and start talking about, I don't know, baking or something. But someone who's a meteorologist is not going to want to do that.

[03:21:13]So, let them get their money. They'll be out of my my industry before you blink.

[03:21:20]Uh, our tornado warning has been dropped in Kate May County. Now, we just got regular old run-of-the-mill thunderstorms over southern New Jersey.

[03:21:28]Central New Jersey around um Burlington and Ocean County. We have our last severe thunderstorm warning. Uh the thunderstorm heading towards Tom River is below severe levels and that's about to hit the coast. So now any type of potential tornado is focused right here.

[03:21:46]In fact, let me let me circle it. Basically here.

[03:21:56]If there's going to be anything, it's going to be in this zone right here.

[03:22:03]And then once these storms hit this zone, once they clear this area, we're done.

[03:22:10]And I am going to get a loss in because my throat's starting to hurt because I've been talking for almost three and a half hours.

[03:22:20]So the live chat tomorrow might be a little short because I might not have a voice.

[03:22:26]Uh let's see here. Let me All right. Clear this out.

[03:22:36]That out.

[03:22:39]And let me just check here.

[03:22:42]So far, nothing big. Just light rain and thunder. I did get a severe thunderstorm warning alert. Yep.

[03:22:49]So, we're coming to an end on this. Just in time for the Metscape. Just kidding.

[03:22:54]I'm not I might check in on it. Uh, no new updates here on the observation front.

[03:23:05]So, if you're if you're in southwestern New Jersey, you're pretty much done. The severe thunderstorm warning over northern Delaware did not get advanced into southwest New Jersey. It looks like it's just heavy rainfall.

[03:23:18]Um, Kate May down towards Wildwood.

[03:23:23]Basically, uh, basically from Stone Harbor southward through Cape May and the Villas southward, you're done. The thunderstorms have left northward.

[03:23:32]There's nothing to the south and west of you. Uh, this thunderstorm complex basically killed the thunderstorms over the rest of Delaware.

[03:23:43]And as you can see, there is literally nothing off to our west. It's going to be a very quiet evening after this. Uh, again, you could pretty much put an end to Connecticut. This is all going to get cut out pretty soon. I wonder if they adjusted the timing. They still got it through 900 PM. I don't buy it. Uh I think you're done. You're just done.

[03:24:04]Kill it. That's it. New York City. Kill it. Um and then right here, let's say Northern Ocean County, you're done. You're about to be done in central Ocean County. So we got southern Ocean County, south southern extreme southern Burlington County, then down through Atlantic and Kate May. After that, everything to the west is pretty much on the end. So, I think once this line here gets to Ocean County, we'll probably come to an end on this and put a pin on this. Light rain and Redbank.

[03:24:43]Wow, we have 6,000 viewers here on X.

[03:24:47]But, thank you very much on X for jumping in. I do appreciate that. That is awesome.

[03:24:54]Uh, let's see. 112 watching on YouTube, which is awesome.

[03:25:05]So, yes, there have been tornadoes. Yes, there have been several. We've had We had one tornado with two tornado warnings in northern New Jersey. We had two tornado warnings in Kate May County.

[03:25:21]I don't know why the Yankee game was cancelled. Whoever told them that probably wasn't watching the HRR or the radar itself. I'm not sure why, but then again, hey, look, if you don't want them out in those conditions, I get it.

[03:25:35]Uh, we could talk about the grading of the Mansions for the past winter tomorrow.

[03:25:41]We'll definitely focus on that. So, come back to the live chat tomorrow. We'll definitely talk about that.

[03:25:48]Uh so the weather is going to be improving tomorrow by the way. Um just some showers and weak thunderstorms tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

[03:25:59]By this time tomorrow evening you'll have like clear skies, low humidity.

[03:26:04]It's going to be absolutely beautiful.

[03:26:08]So I think the Yankees are going to have a double header. So they should be fine.

[03:26:14]So now we're done in Central Ocean County pretty much done now. It's just southern Ocean County, Southern Burlington County. We're pretty much coming to an end here.

[03:26:29]Just got to get I just want to get this line here to the coast.

[03:26:38]See if there's any sign of any type of turning here.

[03:26:43]Yeah, let me just get this line to the coast and we'll come to an end because there's nothing else forming out here.

[03:26:57]And once that happens, it's time to have some Greek yogurt.

[03:27:02]That's I think that's a good idea. What do you think, honey? Greek yogurt and some uh cartoons and you're going to warm up your dinner.

[03:27:14]Do you want me to grill for you for anything?

[03:27:17]No, you good. Okay.

[03:27:21]>> Sure.

[03:27:22]>> I like grilling.

[03:27:26]>> Yeah, but I don't mind grilling. I don't mind grilling in the rain. I'm going to put a big white hat on. We'll go out.

[03:27:33]We'll wave around a big metal claw and just like grill and see if I can catch a lightning bolt.

[03:27:45]So, this line right here, let's see here. Some very strong straight line winds heading towards Lil Egg Harbor Township, Stanford Township, just passing through Washington Township. Uh, look at this line. It's passing to the south of Tom's River. Uh, and probably to south of Seaside Heights, this is going to be some very windy conditions, uh, heading right towards the Jersey Shore. Look at this. just marching right again. No sign of any type of turning here. This is all straight line wind gusts marching right in heading right towards the towards the coast. So Tom's River, you're done with the severe threat as this is coming in. Seaside Heights is still got a threat here as it's coming in. Burning at Light, Surf City, Stanford Township, Mil Harbor Township.

[03:28:38]This is all marching in. Washington Township is just getting whacked right now. Um, it's heading probably to the north of Bass River Township.

[03:28:52]Nice little alpha, nice little bow echo here marching through southern Ocean County or should I say southern Burlington County, sorry. And heading towards southern Ocean County. So, right in here.

[03:29:09]right here. It's pretty much the end.

[03:29:12]So, your severe threat is ending from south to north here over Kate May County and from west to east over Burlington, Ocean, and Atlantic County. So, pretty much we are down to this zone right here.

[03:29:32]That's pretty much it. So right in here is where you still can set up an environment where you can end up maybe with some turning if it's going to happen. And so the way that it looks in terms of our sounding probably a little bit more stable but still present with that silverly wind. You see how the winds turn from south to west here? Wests southwest. That's called cyclonic. So, this s this setup here, despite this slight stable layer, is strong enough to where you could set up a potential tornado or severe thunderstorm. But that's pretty much down to that little zone right in here, right here. So, we're just waiting for this to clear out.

[03:30:36]So, we're done. So, everything's done around Kate May, Wildwood. Actually, Kate May County, you could pretty much put an end to it. Um, the rest of southwest New Jersey is just rain, heavy rain. And now we're pretty much down to here. And so, once this and this keeps on lifting. So this line's lifting north and this line's lifting east. And so that's where we're pretty much uh set up. So this keeps on pushing northward along the seabbze front. And this is pushing to the uh east with the the prefrontal trough.

[03:31:24]So, if we're going to get anything, it'll be right in there.

[03:31:28]And then we're done.

[03:31:30]And then we're going to watch Godzilla movies.

[03:31:35]Yes.

[03:31:42]>> What's that?

[03:31:51]Oh yeah, I remember I heard about this.

[03:31:55]>> She was what was it? A car accident or something. So yeah, the the the young lady who was playing uh uh Jai in the um got >> Yeah. C how she um she passed away unfortunately.

[03:32:11]>> Man, that's sick.

[03:32:12]>> She was 18.

[03:32:14]>> 18 in a car accident. Man, that is See, life is short, man. That's crazy. That's sad.

[03:32:22]>> That's sad. That's rough.

[03:32:28]So, with that, we are um zoning in on this area here. This is your final area.

[03:32:36]Little Egg Harbor Township, Beach Haven, uh McKay City, your Eggtown, Egg Harbor Township, um Port Republic, Atlantic City. This is where we're in. We're we're at the final stage of this severe threat, final stage of this tornado threat as these storms are marching in.

[03:33:04]And let's see. So, the line is well pretty much done in Ocean Township. Now, we're just waiting for Stamford Township. Um, bar to get light. I'm not expecting anything.

[03:33:24]Waiting for this final shot. And then after that, anything else is coming through is pretty much just heavy rain.

[03:33:32]Oh, and we just had here video was shared on social media of a water spout moving ashore um around Kate May. So now we had confirmation of the tornado that moved on shore around Kate May. We didn't get any confirmation for the one that was approaching Avalon.

[03:33:50]Um but we got official confirmation National Weather Service via social media, the water spout. So we got that and this line that's coming through made pretty much straight line winds at this point. So now this has reached the coast on Ocean County. So this part this pretty much kills the tornado threat um for Ocean County. We'll get this for Tan Stanford Township. So, as this reaches the coast in the next couple of minutes, once that happens, we'll be coming to an end with the live coverage and probably in the next radar update. So, probably next two minutes because now your straight line winds run through and now we're just dealing with heavy rainfall.

[03:34:56]Just making sure we don't have any more tornado concerns or anything of that nature.

[03:35:08]And I do want to thank everyone for watching. We're getting uh not bad. That is great. And again, for those of you who are watching, we do have a live chat that we do every Wednesday at 8:00 PM. So, if you're interested in other topics aside from the severe thunderstorms, whether it's uh climate change, El Nino, uh the weather pattern, we could talk about all of it. Uh if you have just general questions about meteorology, how to be a meteorologist, all that good stuff. uh definitely uh join and uh jump on in.

[03:35:46]And of course, if you're interested in more detailed analysis like this every day, then you definitely want to check out becoming a premium member for $15 a month.

[03:35:57]And now with the update, we're pretty much Atlantic City, you're pretty much coming to an end.

[03:36:07]There's some rumble of thunder.

[03:36:10]just some heavier rainfall and uh that is let's see here we're getting some strong winds coming up through Egg Harbor Township right now. I just want to make sure with this interaction right here that we don't get any rogue spin up right in here between this line coming in and these thunderstorms lifting northward.

[03:36:41]But it's pretty much it's reached the coast of Southern Ocean County here. So, this is all pretty much done. You could pretty much cut out the tornado warning for uh tornado watch I say for Burlington County at this point.

[03:36:56]Everyone in southwestern uh New Jersey, it's pretty much just heavy rainfall at this point. Again, you can see the sounding here.

[03:37:07]Significantly reduced cape at this point. More of a stable environment. You no longer have the vertical wind shear to work with.

[03:37:16]And now we're coming, this should be close to the end. We're now down to this area right here.

[03:37:27]If we see anything, it's going to be right in here over the next 10 minutes if that.

[03:37:38]And so where we're watching is this interaction right here.

[03:37:45]See if anything potentially could spin up because we're seeing this is not necessarily a circulation. It's this the line coming in from the west and the thunderstorms lifting northward along the southern New Jersey coast interacting with each other, running into each other. So sometimes what happens is that when they run into each other, they could create a spin up and this in turn can lead to a tornado.

[03:38:11]Usually a weak one like an F-zero, but still.

[03:38:17]So that's what we're watching right now.

[03:38:22]The final final countdown. Feel like it's like an 80s movie.

[03:38:33]And there is this should be coming to an end. A severe thunderstorm warning in Ocean maybe around Stanford and Little Egg Surf City.

[03:38:46]Here's some thunder in the distance.

[03:38:51]Ort Republic. We're watching that.

[03:38:57]And you're seeing the convergence taking place right over McKe City. Uh Egg Harbor Township, you're pretty much at an end here. Atlantic City, just heavy rain.

[03:39:10]So now we're down to this area right here. Burning Light down through uh Port Republic and into Beach Haven.

[03:39:27]So, we're we're getting much smaller now.

[03:39:33]I'm getting ready for this to push on in.

[03:39:39]In fact, you can see the outflow boundary from this line of storms running into the southern storm coming northward.

[03:39:51]So that's our zone right there.

[03:39:56]So this is about to come through.

[03:40:03]And so you can see what I'm watching here. Here's the out here's the progression of the outflow boundary right there.

[03:40:13]So, it's starting to cut this down.

[03:40:18]So, now you can cut this zone out.

[03:40:22]This is done. So, now it's this and this. And now we're down to this.

[03:40:30]So, now we're down to this area right here.

[03:40:36]if there's any potential convergence or confluence or anything that starts to spin up. Basically, we're watching Lil Egg Harbor Township, Tucker, Beach Haven, Beach Haven West, Surf City pretty much done because this outflow is going to overwhelm anything.

[03:40:57]and just updated and we're done. Okay, so that pretty much puts an end to our severe threat, certainly a tornado threat. Um, you have the outflow boundary here overwhelming anything. No sign of any type of circulation. The southern storm is now part of the linear line. So, we no longer have a tornado threat here.

[03:41:25]Uh, all your winds are all straight line. So, with that, pretty much done. That has been your coverage of the tornado threat for today, July 21st, 2026.

[03:41:41]Uh, I've been your meteorologist, Stephen D. Martino, CDM number nine.

[03:41:46]Thank you for following along. I'll see you tomorrow at 8:00 PM with our live cover, live chat that we do every week.

[03:41:54]In the meantime, stay safe out there.