AIADMK out, Vijay vs DMK game in Tamil Nadu? Exit poll surprise, decoded | AI with Sanket

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[00:00:00]the big outlier of an exit poll which predicted a TVK that is actor Vijay's victory.

[00:00:08]I think this whole thing is devised more for the news media and people like us who enjoy that because it gives television channels a great opportunity to score.

[00:00:20]There is an anti-incumbency which is this particular government is facing because it's been in power now one term and never in the past DMK has come for a second time except once.

[00:00:33]In Delhi 2013, nobody thought that the Aam Aadmi Party will get uh upwards of 25. Nobody predicted this.

[00:00:44]Tamil Nadu certainly reacts to federal issues very strongly. It's very conscious of the fact that it needs to uh uphold and protect its regional rights.

[00:00:58]>> [music] >> Hello and welcome. My name is Sanket Upadhyay. You're watching me on The Federal. The show is called AI with Sanket. This is the AI of news because news in India today requires not artificial but analytical intelligence.

[00:01:13]The exit polls, whether you believe them or not, create quite a stir, create quite a spectacle. They once again have.

[00:01:21]And if we specifically talk about Tamil Nadu, there are some outliers but largely the exit polls predict a repeat of the DMK government. What exactly is the buzz in Tamil Nadu, political as well as the buzz on the street? Do people even believe these exit polls?

[00:01:42]What was the impact of the whole delimitation bill in the last minutes of voting? Let's put that to a short discussion. And also the big outlier of an exit poll which predicted a TVK that is actor Vijay's victory. We'll talk about that as well. We have with us The Federal's editor-in-chief, Mr. S Srinivasan. Thank you very much, Srini sir, for joining us.

[00:02:05]Yeah, thank you. Thank you for having me.

[00:02:07]My first question, when you saw these exit polls as a TV veteran yourself, do you believe after all these decades and years that this is a three-day pomp and show which will wilt once the results are out?

[00:02:25]Well, it's a very interesting question you you know you started the whole program with. Yes, of course, we've been watching so many exit polls and over the years have become slightly cynical also.

[00:02:36]The thing here is but even then every time they say that there is an exit poll you sit in front of television and you still want to watch it. I mean that's the beauty of this. I think this whole thing is devised more for the news media and people like us who enjoy that because it gives television channels a great opportunity to score. And even others have a great opportunity to analyze and people like me to you know dissect whichever the way. And this is only one day we are all going to talk about that's another next two days or four days later when the results come out, all of us are going to forget this and we'll remember it again the next time when we face an assembly election or a parliamentary election. I think therefore it has a very limited shelf value. So people shoot off their mouths hoping that nobody remembers them.

[00:03:25]Yes, Mr. Srini. My question is I understand you're saying that this is the media circus, it's for the media.

[00:03:31]But let's assume it is it is not because had this been only for the media, people otherwise would not have been interested. It's there in the newspapers. There is definitely chatter about it among the political carder.

[00:03:45]There are some outliers also.

[00:03:47]I want to know your overall perception of exit polls and how seriously should one read them?

[00:03:55]Yeah, it's yeah. The outcome has been as expected, it's varied. Some people have said that you know it's DMK plus which is returning back to power. The other prediction which say no there is a possibility. There are few who said even AIADMK could form the government. But there is only one particular poll which say that it's actually TVK.

[00:04:16]Now, what are the possibilities? Let's go one by one. Uh you know there is an anti-incumbency which is this particular government is facing because it's been in power now one term and never in the past DMK has come for a second time except once when Mr. Karunanidhi, his father, Stalin's father was the chief minister. So you would have in a way break the record and would have been a second time CM.

[00:04:42]Uh now as far as uh the other thing is concerned that he is whether he is governance track record and other issues are concerned, he has fairly managed to run the government. The second is AIADMK.

[00:04:56]Uh now AIADMK has been you know has been facing a lot of internal problems. You know you have earlier O S he went out, came in, again went out finally and joined DMK. Then you have TTV Dinakaran who split. Then uh you know Amma's close associate, I mean Jayalalithaa's close associate, uh Sasikala, she also broke away. Then you saw other Sengottaiyan was the last who went and joined TVK. So there's lots of things happened within the party. Lot of churn but uh you know Edappadi Palaniswami maintained you know had control over the party. He was earlier chief minister and is unwilling to give it. He had a running with Annamalai and therefore BJP even relented and in the parliament election they kind of cast him aside and allowed him to take center stage.

[00:05:46]All kinds of things happened in state politics. So that alliance of AIADMK plus was finally hammered. The tail was actually wagging the head. It's BJP which ensured that alliance takes place.

[00:05:58]So that's a background in which these two alliances took shape. They had their own internal problems. Even DMK plus had their own problems. Congress wanted you know you know a part more seats and also share in power.

[00:06:13]A whole lot of problems.

[00:06:15]But still they went to poll in a coordinated organized way and these are two established Both are basically parties. Both are basically carder based parties. One party with his legacy 100 years.

[00:06:30]I'm basically talking of entire Dravid movement not just when DMK was formed.

[00:06:34]Other one, AIADMK also has its great track record of the past. In between suddenly now you have the TVK and that's where the real outlier is. Real surprise. Can he beat all of this at in one shot and then win? So it's like this, you're going for a World Cup.

[00:06:57]Yes, there could be several matches but day one, match one, somebody hits and such a big hit that he wins the cup.

[00:07:08]It's >> [laughter] >> so so it's something like that. It's not that he hit few sixes.

[00:07:14]It's like he got It's not unheard of because Mr. Srinivasan, you see in Delhi 2013, nobody thought that the Aam Aadmi Party will get upwards of 25. Nobody predicted this.

[00:07:27]And then nobody predicted a 67 in 2015 and nobody predicted a 62 in 2020.

[00:07:33]However, those things happened. So these outliers do happen.

[00:07:40]Uh now that exact pollster who predicted the Aam Aadmi Party win also had to eat humble pie when the BJP did not get teen so par or 300 plus and then he ended up weeping in a newsroom.

[00:07:55]I want to know from you having seen in Indian politics that outliers exist, does TVK and its carder have it in them to be a superstar blockbuster in the very first match?

[00:08:11]You're absolutely right. There are two outliers actually, it's not just one.

[00:08:16]The political party which was formed ab initio and within a year or 11 or 12 months came to power, the first was NTR's TDP.

[00:08:27]That's the first party which came to power within you know its formation within a year.

[00:08:32]After that came Aam Aadmi Party. So these are the two records in front of us which are kind of outlier in entire political history.

[00:08:40]But you know in both these cases we must remember that NTR ran a very spirited campaign. He had something called rath invented that time rath yatra he took place. He he took which is very different from other rath yatras.

[00:08:57]He went around because he was kind of a mythological you know with his you know costumes and all he went around and he was an actor.

[00:09:08]Uh and he was backed by a very powerful slogan that Tamil Telugu pride be reestablished because they they thought that Congress has in a way insulted the politicians and the political class and the people of Andhra Pradesh. I'm talking of United Andhra Pradesh.

[00:09:24]And that moment ran and a a powerful newspaper group backed that entire campaign. You know they published day in and out headline stories backing his campaign. You know so he got a lot of coverage. Those days there were no social media but he got a good coverage village by village and he went campaign and then did this remarkable thing. And then you have Aam Aadmi Party. You see Kejriwal was not unknown.

[00:09:49]He was slightly maybe unknown political circles but he was active in uh know social circles. He had his own uh you know he isn't somebody who jumped nowhere, you know, he did uh work groundwork and he kind of a led a movement also.

[00:10:09]So, in that sense, I think these two are different from what TVK has done.

[00:10:13]Now, TVK's uh party is uh you know about a year old he launched, but he hardly ever I mean I'm talking about Vijay.

[00:10:22]He hardly ever spoke you know much about uh his political uh except saying two things that you know DMK is my uh you know a political enemy and BJP is my ideological enemy.

[00:10:36]These are the two things he said. And he set out on a campaign and it become a disaster because about 41 people died in Karur because of massive crowd that gathered. So, then everyone realized that they he's a great he's he's a huge crowd puller. That another thing established.

[00:10:54]Besides, if you look at where all he campaigned, let me just read it out for you where all he went.

[00:10:59]He campaigned in and around Chennai.

[00:11:03]For 3 days. He went to Tirunelveli, which is in south of Tamil Nadu, Thoothukudi, it's again in the south for 1 day each.

[00:11:11]Uh Tiruppur, which is in western part, industrial town, and Dharmapuri, which is in the neighboring you know the and then uh Coimbatore he went, which is a mega town here other than Chennai. And he went to Tiruchi, another major town in uh Tamil Nadu.

[00:11:27]Uh so, that's where he uh went to a dargah, uh temple, and a church.

[00:11:33]And then he went to uh he spent a day in Perambur, his own constituency, but he didn't go to Karur where that accident happened where 41 people died. He didn't go to many parts of Tamil Nadu.

[00:11:45]So, that sense his whirlwind tour, which is just uh except Perambur he got down of his uh you know a large and then spoke to people again only for a day, it's largely only a kind of a road show.

[00:12:00]And that's all he did.

[00:12:02]And to expect that this road show has converted not only everything into real uh votes, he also manages to form a government is something extraordinary.

[00:12:15]See, it is true that whole lot of youngsters back him.

[00:12:19]Uh and a whole lot of women also like him.

[00:12:22]He's he has a huge fan following. But to think that he has overcome everything and has become uh chief ministerial person overnight is a bit of a you know I mean, you can say replace believe it or not believe it or not it's that kind of thing seem to be happening. But to be fair it is also possible that whole lot of people in Tamil Nadu are sick and tired of with you know selecting between the two Dravidian parties.

[00:12:57]DMK ADMK DMK ADMK this they've been are they really tired Are they looking for a different kind of uh paradigm? Because you see it's we all say it's a developed state.

[00:13:13]Because if you look at various parameters it is a developed state.

[00:13:17]If you look at educational outcomes, if you look at social outcomes, which is where health um you know child uh birth rate or if you look at death rate, all those outcomes, educational outcomes the gross enrollment ratio uh you know it's one of the most highly industrialized state which labor you know women in labor participation one of the highest in India.

[00:13:44]All these things fantastic.

[00:13:46]But are people expecting more than that?

[00:13:50]Yes, why not? Look at Chennai.

[00:13:54]Its roads are narrow.

[00:13:56]We still don't have people don't have piped gas.

[00:13:59]They don't have you know uh traffic jams uh you can see all the times, narrow roads, poor public infrastructure within the city. So, urban landscape uh you pure drinking water, you know, what lot of households here get water uh you know shipped through cans. They receive water in cans. So, there are lots of issues here as well. Have people here really got tired and they thought enough is enough we should have somebody else?

[00:14:31]If that is the case, if somebody is proposing that as a reason and they really want to turn world class not to compare you know I heard in my own uh this argument in our own federal somebody was making that you know people do travel here from Tamil Nadu Chennai to you know other countries and they have an idea of how other countries look like. Are they looking themselves to be world class citizens?

[00:14:55]Are these political parties not able to fulfill their aspirations and that has angered them?

[00:15:02]I mean, then it's a different uh issue, but as far as journalistic class is concerned, as far as I heard from my own reporters and others of my group uh news channel, I didn't hear anything that there is such a major turn happening in Tamil Nadu.

[00:15:21]But here's the thing, you see uh this was the exact same buzz and I'm just reminded of 2013 about the Aam Aadmi Party as well.

[00:15:30]News rooms, pollsters, sephologists uh political workers, political analysts, none of them thought that Arvind Kejriwal and his political party have it in them to suddenly within a year create such a such a flutter.

[00:15:49]But they did.

[00:15:51]I just want to ask you Mr. Srinivasan, do you feel that Mr. Vijay and his TVK has that potential in him and is Tamil Nadu facing a crisis a political crisis of a kind where he can provide that he can be that savior for one and all to lead a mass movement a sort of an undercurrent which will come to the fore in these elections?

[00:16:20]Well, uh there is nothing to prove that he can do it. You know, if people are going probably if for a moment let's assume that this is true, it's not an outlier Vijay actually becomes a chief minister tomorrow, he gets so many number of seats as predicted by this particular opinion poll.

[00:16:39]For a moment let's assume that it comes out true.

[00:16:43]In that case, what you're saying is whether people are really uh convinced I feel that it's only faith.

[00:16:52]But they because there's nothing to show that he can actually do something like that because there's no administrative uh you know the demonstratively there's nothing like it. He's a completely a newcomer.

[00:17:05]Even his rallies have been badly organized. That's when you saw massive uh you know mishap happening in his about 41 people died. Other rallies also uh you know there is there's I mean of course these are massive crowds so there's nothing to show or to say that yes, he can actually accept his appearance in uh you know in celluloid in in in screen where he is of course a good guy formula movies where he bashes bad guys comes on the top overnight changes things for them.

[00:17:40]So, it's a make-believe world and uh if people of Tamil Nadu uh you know watching a movie and won't be able to differentiate between you know that and the real life it's a bit hard to believe. They do realize that cinema has a different place in their lives. But having said that there is an intersection of cinema and real life does happen here. A lot of examples been given here almost every household people watch cinema.

[00:18:11]But keep that aside.

[00:18:13]It is true that youngsters specially people between the age group of say um you know uh first time voters 17 to 20 um 122 and also you know fairly young people going up to the age of 40 been very keen on voting for Vijay, which you can pick up from conversations when you casually go into family gatherings or you meet people casually.

[00:18:42]Young people are certainly attracted towards him.

[00:18:47]And uh initially everybody thought it's just a fandom fan fan following which is happening, but whether it is actually getting converted into a political you know whether they are able to believe him such an extent that they are putting their governance fortune in his pocket is something which we'll have to see after two two three days.

[00:19:12]But um if that's what happens then we have to really look at how much the political class has disappointed. That's what it will show.

[00:19:26]I think that's a very interesting assessment. It will be an absolute rejection of Tamil Nadu's Dravidian politics for the whole of Tamil Nadu to trust an absolutely absolute to use a quotation from Gen Z noob.

[00:19:42]He'll be an actual actual newbie and a noob uh that they trust him more than the traditional politics. But two quick questions before we wrap up.

[00:19:52]Um you see the last big success and correct me if I'm wrong um of a cinema star doing so well in Tamil Nadu politics and then becoming a big political leader was Jayalalithaa herself.

[00:20:08]We saw other two big attempts being made in Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan. And my understanding is that they have they have just not been able to create that sort of impact. It appeared as if this was a big bubble which never really materialized into a mass movement.

[00:20:29]Do you feel that in that context Vijay is different?

[00:20:33]Certainly. He is certainly different.

[00:20:35]He's certainly different from uh the two examples you gave both uh you know uh Kamal Haasan. But in the case of Rajinikanth he actually never stepped in.

[00:20:46]If Rajinikanth stepped into politics he did that when he did announce he declared uh I'm going to but he eventually didn't.

[00:20:57]Things would have been different certainly because he has not just following he's known to be a kind of a you know a person who's been expressing political views through his movies in the past. Uh particularly in one particular uh you know fallout Jayalalithaa he did make a movie in which he made a statement and it turned out that when he kind of withdrew his support she lost.

[00:21:23]Even that happened. So there is a track record. He he would have been a very different Rajinikanth would have been really different. But he didn't. Kamal Haasan did try but Kamal Haasan is uh excellent movie maker film maker artist very well known figure here. But he is not that kind of a mass he you know he's his movies uh have a huge following but not the kind of following which Vijay has.

[00:21:52]Vijay is a you know a different uh you know popular movie because Kamal Haasan's movies are slightly different from this and uh certainly Vijay has huge huge following than these leaders. But then you gave an example of Jayalalithaa. I must remind you one you start from MGR.

[00:22:13]Uh you know he was acting in movies his script was being written by uh Karunanidhi. They were both buddies joined you know they were in DMK together then the party broke.

[00:22:26]Uh he you know uh MGR went away to form his own AIADMK.

[00:22:34]You need to remember that he was in politics for quite some time.

[00:22:38]For nearly a decade you know uh if I'm memory serves right he was there for a long time before he uh you know had this whole thing happening. And he was also extremely popular.

[00:22:50]Uh you know you can straight away compare his popularity with what Vijay has today and Vijay has this popularity in an age where social media and other mass media exist. MGR was popular at a time when these things didn't exist to such a large ex uh you know level.

[00:23:07]Then you had Jayalalithaa. You know even Jayalalithaa it wasn't as if she became a politician in one day you know she did uh work hard she had her own moments of uh you know ups and downs. All those are you know past and all are history you might know all these things have happened so it you know they all had a certain groundings you know they they were in politics for a while before they came. The only other person Vijayakanth who was success in the first outing he just won probably one seat which was his own and 8% vote. Second outing he got about 10 10.5 and he could get about 29 28 29. My numbers may be wrong but that's the kind of two dozen seats he got and became leader of the opposition.

[00:23:53]So other actors in the past there were others also uh very brilliant actors yes like you have uh you know you mentioned uh Kamal Haasan but we also had uh in the MGR Shivaji Ganesan.

[00:24:08]Shivaji Ganesan again was a big actor but he couldn't make a cut. And there are number of others who had fallen by wayside. So but Vijay certainly is not in that category.

[00:24:19]Even if you look at these exit polls even you assume that they are wrong all journalists here were initially saying that at the most he'll be only cutting votes.

[00:24:31]It was expected uh that Vijay actor Vijay would only cut some votes of his rivals. That's all they were expecting.

[00:24:39]Then later some analysts started saying maybe he'll win one or two seats. From there the predictions say 20 to 23 seats 18 to 20% vote share and he may even go up further.

[00:24:54]You know certainly tells that that he's cut from a different uh cloth. He's not the same person.

[00:25:02]My final question Mr. Srinivasan and that has to do with the delimitation bill. Now if that was a gambit uh with respect to Bengal to show uh that the TMC is not pro-women uh a narrative which the BJP wanted to champion do you feel that its delimitation aspect could work in favor of the DMK? From from burning a copy of the bill to leading a momentum on the ground do you think that could save the day for the DMK?

[00:25:34]Well it certainly helped DMK. Yes this particular action of uh you know BJP uh if it was done midst of the election suddenly a bill was placed in the parliament and when both West Bengal and Tamil Nadu were going to election along with other states it was uh you know it certainly boomeranged in Tamil Nadu. It had no resonance. Uh but that's not just one issue. I would believe that if DMK actually manages to return back for a second time there are number of other issues which went in their favor.

[00:26:11]Uh certainly this is one issue because Tamil Nadu certainly reacts to federal issues very strongly. It's very conscious of the fact that it needs to uh uphold and protect its regional rights and they're very particular about it which originates from its uh own Tamil as an ideology and people here are not going to give up on that. That's given. That's a certain. It's it helped uh him certainly uh Stalin tried to encash on that by burning bill and doing other things as you suggested wore a black shirt. He did run a campaign and it was helpful because he was already in midst of election campaign it came very handy for him he did use it. But there are number of other issues I would say this alone won't be uh can't be considered as a kind of a winning issue for him. You know he did give distribute through what now call as direct benefit transfer mechanism. He gave nearly 9,000 in two three installments to women here. And he tried to woo women in a you know giving this.

[00:27:17]And uh there are number of others freebies which are already on in the state and he tried to encash them. The other thing is that he was a very visible chief minister. He was there almost uh all on functions regularly on uh he was uh as much as now you are well aware living in Delhi that uh politicians have now learned uh to be in limelight all through the year.

[00:27:42]Uh you know so uh it has trickled down to Chennai also like prime minister does in Delhi in other places uh Stalin also here has the arc lights on him all the time. Uh and the other thing which for the first time I must say very quickly here if I have time if you permit me that um this is a very different election for Tamil Nadu which in almost Instagramized.

[00:28:09]It's one of my reporter did this uh story. She said that this is an Instagram election.

[00:28:15]Where everything was uh shaped in a manner that it goes on an Instagram.

[00:28:20]Politicians gave their sound bites which suited Instagram. They made reels. They gave uh you know short speeches. They were willing to do a bit of a play acting.

[00:28:31]Uh Stalin went you know he cycled. He went to a sugarcane vendor uh you know and he was uh you know trying to run his juice machine. Uh he ran tried to run his juicer.

[00:28:45]Then you know he uh went met meet meet people early morning during their morning walks. All politicians not just Stalin did this brilliantly this time.

[00:28:56]Uh so this is one big change in this election that politicians adapted to this very quickly and they also made various uh you know uh gestures and symbols which are probably bought from K-pop the Korean band and so all kinds of things that are >> in your context it'll be called T-pop.

[00:29:19]Probably. Tamil pop huh? Tamil pop. So they improvised and did all that you know so it was interesting that uh all these things happened. But uh just though I mean I would like to add here that Tamil Nadu is probably one of the earliest welfare state where politicians have long early early a long ago they realized that they must uh distribute uh you know, some kind of a largess if you want to call it if you want to call it revdi if you want to be uh slightly uncharitable, but they certainly believed in distributing uh welfareism. They did you know, it it had had a lot of benefit here. They've been doing it for a long time. So, one question was also asked whether it has completed its cycle. Is it over? I feel that there's one thing which particularly happened in Tamil Nadu.

[00:30:18]It is a given now. Any government which comes to power has to give those basic thing to people.

[00:30:25]Without that, politician cannot survive.

[00:30:28]So, what probably Stalin if he wins, again it's uh if big question because we are only looking at exit polls.

[00:30:36]So, the delivery of these delivery mechanism very important, delivery of welfare programs, a fairly okay governance, and on the top of it, you know, constant tension with center and raising this federal issue, all these might have helped them. All right, Mr. Srinivasan.

[00:30:53]Thank you so much. That was a complete primer uh just ahead of the result day on Tamil Nadu. Now, whether this outlier poll will be right or will the others be right, um let there be lots and lots of speculation for the next 2 3 days.

[00:31:10]Eventually, May the 4th be with you.

[00:31:12]Thank you very much.