Bitcoin At Major Resistance | CPI Adds Pressure

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]So the Bitcoin chart has taken a small hit over the last few days after running all the way up to our resistance and target area around 82K.

[00:00:11]This target has been on the chart for many many weeks and the whole target area yeah with four Fibonacci targets for the C-wave up for our corrective rally has remained unchanged for many weeks now with the price reaching several important resistance levels in the 82 to 83 84k area up here. Yeah, the upper boundary line of the trend channel. There's a CME gap. I showed you yesterday on our liquidity heat map.

[00:00:40]Also, another level at around 83 and a halfK, which could play a role. Of course, there is a bit of a pullback, but the market is also approaching um is also approaching obviously now to the downside the 21week EMA. Look, we have broken above the 21week EMA recently and now we get a pullback. So in this video we want to talk about all these relevant levels and we also want to discuss CPI inflation how that could play a role for Bitcoin. So if we if we look at the um chart here we can see that the market is currently consolidating above the 21week EMA and below the 100% extension which is always an important resistance. Plus obviously you've got the upper boundary line of the channel.

[00:01:32]This means we're kind of in a holding pattern right now and it does mean that we need to understand first of all what the higher time frame is saying and then we can take a look at the micro structures as well and then I try to always give you some additional insights in every video could be something about geopolitics geopolitics could be something about I don't know additional indicators or today we want to talk a little bit about CPI how that could shape Bitcoin point's trajectory over the coming months so that you also understand the overall context. I mean Elliot wave which is the model that we use for market analysis plus some other indicators you know they help us to understand what is happening but discussing additional events can help us understand why something is happening and so at the moment you can see that the market is likely in this more bearish pattern. Awave down, Bwave up, Cwave down. this could still play out. We have no confirmation yet that a top is in. So if I say we need to understand the bigger picture, we also need to understand the micro structures.

[00:02:40]We'll we'll take a look at them in a minute. And on the micro structure chart, yeah, we can then see the micro support levels and resistance levels for today. So we'll do that because they will give us probably the earliest insight the micro structures if and when a top forms. Yeah, because we are going to watch for a break of micro support and a fivewave decline. We don't have any of that. But we'll see what needs to happen to confirm a top. But what I want to highlight here is that the market could still stretch a little higher. We have absolutely no sign of a top. We've reached targets and resistance absolutely. But a bit of a consolidation below resistance is still you know expected right you have to you have to expect that and the 100% extension level in this case 82k is a very very strong one. So if the market pushes higher we could move slowly towards 86k and then 90k and maybe even 95k. That is not a firm target yet, but it's a possible level to keep in mind because it's the top of our initial target box and also around 95K as I showed you yesterday, there is another CME gap that the market might close. Now, before we then dive into the CPI data, um it is important to recognize that there's one more additional level that we're tracking here in our MA, our moving average terminal. Um which you can access by the way as a gold member. In case you don't have access, feel free to reach out either on Discord in the chat or send an email to support more cryptoonline.com.

[00:04:17]But this terminal includes more than 40 indicators including macro updates, time cycle indicators, seasonality indicators, structural indicators. Um, a lot more to come. But this is a very simple one. It's a moving average. This is the 200 day simple moving average.

[00:04:35]And as you can see here, the Bitcoin price is currently also consolidating just below it or at least we're moving towards it. So again I just want to highlight this whole area around 82 to 83K is a very very strong resistance cluster. The 80 um 2,430 level is currently where the 200 day simple moving average is located and it's it's it is an important level. I mean if we just look I love to compare the current price action and behavior to what we saw back in 2022. I do that I don't want to say in every video but very regularly.

[00:05:14]And so again you see here as well from the 2022 low we moved up didn't quite get there and then got rejected. So again we are on high alert for a top signal because something like this could happen again. You can never rule out a short um a short break above the 200 day moving average. Yeah. But you see also here in 2018 in the bare market we touched it several times. So no real surprises currently here. something to keep to keep in mind. Now, let's also take a look at CPI um before we talk about CPI. So, keep in mind guys, we are probably close to completing a corrective rally from the February lows, but it's not worth to be bearish yet. In a recent video, I think a couple of weeks ago, I showed you what we are watching for for a short trade setup and for a confirmation that we have a top. That hasn't happened yet.

[00:06:06]So, feel free to check out that video. I will link it at the end of this video.

[00:06:10]This tells you when I will assume that the top is in. Yeah, it's still relevant because the market has basically unfolded as forecasted. So, and many of you will have already seen it maybe on our X channel that um yeah um the numbers the overall numbers inflation data has come in a bit hotter again.

[00:06:29]Yeah. Headline CPI year-over-year increased to 3.78% while core CPI year-over-year at 2.7% came in at 2.74% and on a monthly basis headline CPI rose by 64% and core CPI by 38%. And I'll I'll take a look at the chart. You can actually see quite nicely here if I zoom in a little bit. um you see you see quite nicely what the market is worried about at the moment. So inflation came down obviously significantly right it it came down significantly from the 2022 highs but over the last few months specifically since the Iran situation started but I mean already back in October 24 it started to flatten out and then it started to increase again from February this year. So that is important because the Fed is still trying to get inflation sustainably back toward the 2% target of course but if inflation remains sticky or even starts accelerating again then the Fed simply has less room to cut interest rates aggressively and that matters a lot for Bitcoin and for other risk assets in general because Bitcoin is heavily influenced by liquidity conditions. So when markets expect lower interest rates and easier monetary policy that is usually supportive for assets like Bitcoin, crypto and equities. But when inflation stays elevated, bond yields can move higher again. The dollar can strengthen and financial conditions can remain tighter for longer. And that environment is usually not ideal for speculative assets or risk assets. Um and Bitcoin is a risk asset. not you know at the same time I also want to be careful here because Bitcoin has actually held up relatively well despite some of the hotter inflation data we've seen so the market is not collapsing because of this CPI release or anything like that but from a structural perspective I still think this current Bitcoin rally is corrective in nature yeah and an increase in inflation obviously does not contribute to euphoric uh you know um euphoric uh regime in which possibly interest rates could be cut soon. And I mean I've said it many times you know if Bitcoin starts developing a very clean impulsive structure to the upside with strong momentum and a proper fivewave structure then the course you know of course the probabilities can shift more bullish but as long as the rally remains overlapping corrective look looking I think we still need to stay open-minded to the possibility that this is part of a larger corrective bounce um within an even larger correction than the beginning of the next major bull And overall, I would say this CPI reports supports the idea that the Fed will likely remain cautious and liquidity conditions may stay relatively tight for now and therefore the macro environment is not necessarily providing a strong tailwind for Bitcoin at the moment. This is how we need to understand it. Of course, Bitcoin can rally with interest rates going higher and everything. Yeah, of course it could. Yeah, that's always what I said as well in you know after the last um bare market. I mean, interest rates were still going up. Okay, Bitcoin still went up, but that necessarily it wasn't, you know, the tailwind Bitcoin needed to maybe even go even higher, right?

[00:10:01]Bitcoin did it despite that. Yeah, because Bitcoin can do that. But the structural conditions were there at the time. At the moment, the structural conditions rather suggest caution. The same what this CPI print suggests. So, yeah, I think that is very much aligned.

[00:10:16]And now let us also take a look at the um shorter time frame for Bitcoin. I mean that really hasn't changed much. So we don't need to dive too deep into this but I'm still tracking um the structure as per the last video update as a possible one two setup. Now what does that suggest? It does this is a 15-minute chart by the way. I showed you the higher time frame. I showed you that we are just below the upper boundary line of this trend channel, right? And so from a structural point of view, it's possible that Bitcoin moves higher and there are a couple of ways Bitcoin could still do that in the very short term.

[00:10:51]The most direct way would be after this rally, which we call a wave one, there was a pullback into today's lows.

[00:11:01]And so obviously to maintain the idea of a series of higher highs and higher lows, a short-term uptrend, Bitcoin needs to hold this low, the 8th of May low at around 79,250.

[00:11:14]And there is also a Fibonacci support zone we are watching 79,940 to 80,475. This is still holding. So market hasn't moved much today despite CPI print, which again is further confirmation that we could go higher shortterm, right? So structure is always key. Yeah, structure is always leading and support is still holding. But should we break below initial support, we might see a slightly wider wave two. So we have upper support defined. And then if we can't hold the 8th of May low because that would invalidate the idea of direct move up.

[00:11:48]Yeah, it would invalidate that because we break below a previous low. Then we could still look at the wider pattern that started here on the 29th of April.

[00:11:56]a larger one, two setup and then could still go higher. And here support is at 76,527.

[00:12:06]But that really hasn't changed over the last few days. So all eyes need to be on this upper micro support area. And what I want is to confirm that we are in the third of a third wave. I want a break above the upper boundary line of the channel and a break above the swing highs from the 10th of May and 6th of May in the 82.9K area. I hope that gives you a good idea of what Bitcoin is up to. Um again, quick reminder, this is just a shorter time frame. The higher time frame context obviously suggests that we should be cautious, but as the shorter time frame chart shows us, there is still short-term uptake upside potential. But if you just zoom out, you can see that the downside potential is quite high. We could easily fall back to the channel boundary line and then if we break it, as it often happened, by the way, in previous bare markets, yeah, from these flag patterns, we often saw breakouts. That is typically when the acceleration to the downside intensifies.

[00:13:07]So that is the update on Bitcoin. Hope you liked the update. If you did, please hit the like button, leave a comment, and subscribe. And if you're interested in additional updates, check out our membership for more updates, member only videos, and much more. And as a gold member, you can also access here our terminal with a lot of additional indicators, tools. Yeah. It's more than just a chart library. There are real tools. You can scan the cycles. Yeah, there are certain screeners. It's all early access, so very early days, but you can, and I find this is probably one of the most interesting tools, check out our time cycle engine as well, where we identify time cycles in price structure here for Bitcoin, for example, but many, many other assets as well. Um, plus much more. So, it will be it will be uh improved even further along the way.

[00:13:56]Thanks so much. Have a great day. I put the links, by the way, into the comments.