Tropical Storm Bertha, A Potential Major Heat Wave, & Temperature extremes in the next few days!

[00:00:01]Good morning everyone. A lot going on in the weather pattern. Tropical storm Bertha, a major heatwave or two, and thunderstorms and temperature extremes.

[00:00:14]What is going on? It's the LRC. I'm meteorologist Gary Leisac with weather 2020. Let's take a look at today's report because it is rather incredible.

[00:00:26]All right. I think it's incredible. You tell me what you think. All right. So, here's our front slide. Yes, I took this picture up at the Oldie Dairy Farm. And this July 21st weather 2020 intelligence report, the cattle are going to have some problems with heat and thunderstorms and cool weather. I mean, up and down we go. Uh, I was up there. There I am. Yes, I milked a couple cows. Thank you, Justin. Uh, but that was a couple years ago. So, welcome to all of our new subscribers today.

[00:00:58]This photo was taken on my visit to the Oldie Dairy Farm in northern Kansas a couple years ago. The next two to three weeks will feature some significant temperature swings with heat growing this weekend after we do get more rain and thunderstorms.

[00:01:15]Bertha, tropical storm Bertha this morning was over the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America and we'll just call it the Gulf. And you can see there is Bertha south of the Florida panhandle this morning. In fact, if you look closely right in here, you can see right there is the center. It's not an eye, but it's a center of a weak tropical storm. and the thunderstorms for it to intensify.

[00:01:48]Bertha would need these thunderstorms forming south of the center to form right over the center. Then you could have a rapid intensification into a hurricane. Always something we have to watch closely. But this is forecast to track west and most of the rain from the system will track south of Louisiana.

[00:02:06]So, we've had Arthur, we've had Bertha, the next one will be named Crystal Ballal, then Dolly. We're likely going to get to Hannah to Kyle. That's our forecast. 8 to 12 named storms this season. If you knew, what would you do?

[00:02:21]Well, we're letting you know. It only takes one bad one to make it really bad season. So, we'll be monitoring closely, but 8 to 12 are is our forecast and four to seven hurricanes, two to three major hurricanes is our forecast, but below average overall this season. These are the averages.

[00:02:38]The other companies and businesses and and government agencies and universities, they're being tracked by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. The Barcelona Supercomputing Center in Spain. You can see here that is weather 2020's forecast. This is the one that was issued before May. You can see ours was the second lowest or third lowest depending on how you look at it. and everyone has come down since then.

[00:03:06]Nothing's changed and our forecast is still 8 to 12. What is going on with this weather pattern? Well, I found the video and I'm going to share it on YouTube and etc. But Farm Con, thank you Kevin Van Trump for inviting me out there to produce the forecast for the seasons ahead.

[00:03:29]And I said in this video, I could probably call it up, that right around the end of July, early August, August 1st time frame, there would be a major summer heat wave developing. I said, take a picture of this. So, I'm proud of that. I said, come back and you're going to say, "Holy moly, he was right." Well, let's see what happens in the next two weeks as this part of the pattern cycles through. But the LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric jigsaw. There are other influences. L'inia and this year El Nino. El Nino is a strengthening the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

[00:04:08]You've heard about super El Nino. We'll talk more about that. But even with the onslaught from L'inia to El Nino, the pattern is still the same. Yesterday there was severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over parts of Iowa and Wisconsin. This part of the pattern uh happened 76 days ago. There were 26 tornadoes exactly 76 days ago and 20 and 20 17 tornadoes 76 days before that on February 19th.

[00:04:40]The pattern is right on schedule. What you're looking at here on this map is a low. There's tropical storm Bertha tracking due south of Louisiana by Thursday morning, which this is. It may be completely falling apart.

[00:04:57]This front is stalling north of it and we'll be in a zone with thunderstorms from Wyoming to Kansas City. Possibly some very heavy thunderstorms Friday.

[00:05:07]Here comes some of those heavy thunderstorms that could track across Kansas City. So even though heat's going to build up, the rumor of fire thunderstorms continue and the timely rain. Iowa just had six inches of rain last night, yesterday. So in the last 24 hours. So these thunderstorm complexes are providing some timely rains. Some some too much, but definitely some good moisture. This is the outlook from now through Sunday, the next five days.

[00:05:39]Notice that that rim of fire from Colorado sneaking around Nebraska into eastern Kansas and Missouri. So this is the zone that could have some very heavy thunderstorms before the major heat wave builds in rim of fire thunderstorms. Here are all the little disturbances. You can pick out Oklahoma here, the center of the anti-cyclone heatwave creating machine on Thursday.

[00:06:06]Watch what happens to this. By Saturday, the anti-cyclone gets stronger. The monsoon moisture is coming around it and we'll still have the rim of fire, but it'll be up more near the Great Lakes by Saturday. And you can see the upper high height area. This is an anti-cyclone, the opposite of storm, and send it right over Colorado. It's going to get sizzling hot again. It was 101 degrees yesterday in Golden where I live. So, that's phase one of the heat. But look at this. This is Thursday.

[00:06:38]What? Near 60°.

[00:06:42]59 degrees there. If it's raining in the cooler air, it could drop to the 50s during the day. The high might still be 65 or 70, but look at these temperatures on Thursday, July 23rd. All right.

[00:06:56]Cooler over this whole region. Friday, the heat starts building in 108 in Oklahoma. Forecast. This might be way overdone, but 60s to 108 to 116° in the southwest. Saturday the 25th, the heat builds stronger. All right, but that rim of fire still produces the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Sunday the 26th, the heat builds stronger with 112 in Nebraska.

[00:07:24]Um, that probably, remember, that could be 105 to 112. I don't know. This might just be overdone a little bit by this American model. And then July 27th, you can see the heat.

[00:07:37]And August 3rd, this is when our concern goes even higher because this is the one part of the pattern, the one we predicted at that Farm Conference in January for the heat to possibly spread towards Indiana and Illinois. But by then, you might have had enough rain and cool off where you can withstand a five-day heat wave. The cattle out there could have some problems, though, as you can see.

[00:08:02]So, that's what we're looking at. LRC model data is available. We'll show you more of the models coming up um next week. Email us at hello at weather2020.com or go to weather2020.com for more details. So, I'm meteorologist Gary Leisac. A crazy late July pattern.

[00:08:21]Yes, there's heat waves, but there's cold fronts. There's tropical storms.

[00:08:25]There's severe weather today in the Northeast. So, wow, what a weather pattern we're in. The good news, the new LRC sets up in about two months.

[00:08:37]It'll start setting up.

[00:08:40]Not till early October, though, um, where it really kicks in. Have a good day, everybody. Let me know if there's any questions.