Who Will Blink First Over Hormuz?

Añadido: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]It's a mission impossible, is it not? To to to to reopen and take control of the straight.

[00:00:04]>> No, I don't think it's a mission impossible, but you need political will and you need the military resources to do it. Anything can be done if you apply enough resources, but I think you have to look really at one of the reasons that they cancelled that operation that you talked about, Tom, and that was for dip dip diplomatic reasons, particularly from the Pakistanis wishing to re-energize re-energize the negotiations. So really we're looking at a triangle here, which is to do with reward, pressure, and concessions.

[00:00:32]What's happened is we've really gone through two bits of sort of gaming really in the war so far. We had the pre-war, we had the sanctions regime, then we had the kinetic regime.

[00:00:45]They're now trying the third path, which is the blockade. The key thing here is both of the sides are really adopting a kind of Anaconda Anaconda strategy. That is, who's squeezing the life out of the other side, and it's who blinks first within that, which determines what the outcome of this will be both either in diplomatic terms, in kinetic terms, or in economic terms. We don't know the outcome to that. There are risks for both sides, and we don't know how long the time pressure conundrum will work for both sides.