Is This Market Rally About to Roll Over?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]To a lot of people, the markets feel very weird right now. Semiconductors have been going on this massive rally while carrying the S&P 500 and the QQQ and the ETFs all the way to new all-time highs. But, it might feel weird to a lot of people because your portfolio might not be at all-time highs while the markets are at all-time highs. And you might be asking yourself, "Am I doing something wrong? Am I invested in the wrong place?" Well, in this video, we're going to break it all down. We're going to break down what's been going on in this market since the end of April and what's happened the last 6 weeks that we've ran 8% on the S&P 500 and 14 and 1/2% on the NASDAQ 100. We're going to break all that down. We're going to go in and talk about the sectors and what I'm seeing in each sector and where I see cash flowing from here. And [music] at the end of this video, we're going to get into where I can possibly see this market going and giving an opportunity >> [music] >> to get into semis and into some of these positions before the next leg up. So, without further ado, let's get right into it. Let's first talk about a post that I made. A post that I made over here on X, I said, "Rotation is coming.

[00:01:12]Bookmark it. May 6th, 2026." Is that a bit dramatic? Yes, it is. But, X is pretty dramatic, guys.

[00:01:19]Um sometimes, you know, the fewest amount of words and just more punchier, like, in your face gets people to really recognize things. And what I really wanted to get people to recognize was that semiconductors have gone on this massive rally year-to-date. 60 almost 66% year-to-date out of the top 20 stocks uh on semiconductors, right?

[00:01:43]Energy and robotics have done well. But, I what I really wanted to talk about, right? And I didn't mean when I made this post, I didn't necessarily mean, like, up semiconductors are just going to now go to zero. Up now, semiconductors are now just going to fall off a cliff. That's not what I meant by this post. What I meant by this post was you're going to start seeing profits being taken in semiconductors, maybe even energy. And you're going to start seeing it drop down into software and cloud sectors that have been decimated this year. AI and machine learning, cybersecurity, defense and aerospace, healthcare, financials, travel and airlines, consumers, and big tech. Not all at once.

[00:02:24]But you would start seeing gains being taken because semiconductors are starting to get frothy now on valuations and just how much they've ran on the charts just in a straight-up line carrying this market. Now, because of that, I was sitting there saying, "Hey, you need to pay attention to this. We are going to see some rotation."

[00:02:46]Rotation meaning we are going to see gains being taken and gains being redeployed into undervalued positions.

[00:02:56]And this was being shown in clusters and dark pool and on the charts. Because SaaS, like we talked about in a different post on X, SaaS has bottomed like a month ago. It bottomed a month ago. And we saw a lot of companies, you know, run and then now they pulled back and they just been sitting there.

[00:03:15]Overall still down on the year.

[00:03:17]But let's fast forward to today. Because again, that was May 6th. That was over a week ago. And what do we see? Well, semiconductors continued running hot and they ran another 60 They ran up 68% year-to-date. So, they're up another 3% right? They're up another three uh two to three percent on the year now.

[00:03:39]Utilities ran a little bit. But now what I want to show you is this. I have this new compare feature on our website valuesnapshots.io. I have this new compare feature.

[00:03:49]And [snorts] what we saw this past month, this past month, and really just the past 2 weeks. I'm going to be blatantly honest with you. The last 2 weeks is what we've been seeing.

[00:03:59]Semiconductors this month, obviously, are still up 28.5%.

[00:04:05]But you are starting to see rotation.

[00:04:08]Cybersecurity up 16.9% when it was just down 6% year-to-date.

[00:04:15]Remember over here? It was down 10% year-to-date on May 6th.

[00:04:21]Fast forward to today. Fast forward to today, we're only down 3% year-to-date.

[00:04:25]That mean in over the last 1 month, monthly rankings and year-to-date rankings, the last 1 month we are up 17% on cybersecurity. Look at this. Software and cloud, we were up almost 16%.

[00:04:39]16% over the last 1 month. And look, we've went from -20-something percent down to now only -13.5% down year-to-date on SaaS. Yep, subscription-as-a-service.

[00:04:56]Where else? You're starting to see energy still doing okay. AI and machine learning starting to pick up and do good.

[00:05:03]Um big tech went from, you know, basically negative to now up 1%. They're up 4.3%.

[00:05:11]Uh industrials are doing good, but you're still seeing some sectors like healthcare, uh financials, materials. Materials had a fall from grace there. Um still up 9% on the year, but not doing as hot. Uh defense and aerospace completely kind of fell off there. Right? So, we were at defense and aerospace, where were we?

[00:05:35]Oh, we're already 6%. What was the one that fell off? Materials, 14% now all the way down to materials is only up uh 8.7%. So, materials has fallen off. So, you get what I'm saying here. So, So, year-to-date, we are still red hot in semiconductors and energy, but we're starting to see gains being taken and gains being giveth down here to the companies year-to-date and the stocks and the sectors year-to-date that have just been underperforming and beaten down. SAS has been beaten down. Everybody thinks that SAS is going to go away and these companies are going to go bankrupt because of AI and blah, blah, blah. Some of them will. Some of them will, which is why I tell people I wouldn't just go buy IGV, which is the ETF for SAS companies. I wouldn't just go buy that.

[00:06:25]You have a much better chance of just going and figuring out who has data as a service or who can do data as a service because data is going to be massive.

[00:06:35]Data is going to be the outlier. It's going to be the differentiator between a SAS company that makes it and a SAS company that doesn't make it against AI.

[00:06:45]AI is coming. It is here. It is going to continue to get better, better, better like Claude. So, who can use data as a service and who can make AI make their business better and make their clients' business better.

[00:07:00]That is who's going to win. Not all these companies down here, as we see, are going to make it. They're not all going to make it. Hubs might not make it. Team, I think will make it.

[00:07:11]Workday might not make it.

[00:07:14]Right? Workday does a lot of, um, payment processing.

[00:07:18]I don't know. I don't know. Maybe, uh, AI company comes along and and does does even better, right?

[00:07:24]>> [snorts] >> Intuit, I think is still a moat, um, but there are questions there with taxes and everything. And then obviously cyber. Uh, I never believed that. I never believed cyber was going to be overtaken, uh, by Claude or anything like that. So, you can kind of see that, but there's still so many great deals in here. Like Intuit, ServiceNow is a great deal. I think Adobe's a great deal at these prices. Zscaler, I really like that. I'm in that as a trade in the in the collective right now in the Discord.

[00:07:52]I'm doing very very well on that. I think they flipped to pro- I think they flipped to positive by end of year. I think they're going to follow PANW and Crowd here, which has just been rip-roaring um ever since a month ago, basically.

[00:08:04]Snowflake, I think does really well.

[00:08:06]MongoDB, I like. Microsoft, you know, still down almost % on the year and I think I think it's a great deal. Uh a great deal for Microsoft to be buying at these prices. So, you know, that's just kind of a little bit what I wanted to touch on at the front of this video. So, why through all this, Ronnie, why does the market feel weird? Well, the market feels weird because what we're talking about here. If you're not in semis and you haven't been in semis and until just recently until just recently, you're probably feeling pretty good now, probably decent now, right? of you were looking at like if you didn't own a lot of semiconductor stocks, you're looking at this market like, "How are we at all-time highs?" And "Man, I'm barely up my portfolio. This sucks. This sucks." Yeah, it does suck whenever you don't have exposure to one specific sector and it just flies and flies and flies and just keeps going, right?

[00:08:58]We've been um very fortunate to have exposure to semiconductors, but also exposure to you know, a few companies in our high-conviction portfolio like Nebius and Oscar that have just been doing amazing for us. And it's why we're up 20% on our investing portfolio since the end of February when we started the thing. So, we went through the whole the whole uh correction and we're still up 20% year-to-date. And we don't really own any semiconductors in that portfolio. High conviction, it's Nebius, Oscar, Zeta, and then we just added two new positions and some leaps to that portfolio. So, if you want access to that and want to see what we're adding in that, so we go from 20% year-to-date to maybe 40, 60, 80, maybe 100%. I honestly think if some of these leaps in these stocks that I put in this portfolio go where I think they will, some of them being in the SAS sector and cyber sector, I think that we could see a double up, a 100% return in the portfolio, in the high conviction high conviction portfolio this year. This year, and it's already what? May? Yeah, I think we could possibly see 100% and we're only at 20% right now. So again, if you want to see that, you can join the investing community, uh get access to the Discord, all my due diligence, everything. Uh that's going to be in the link in uh below. So, but yeah.

[00:10:22]Your portfolio feels probably weird because the markets at all-time highs that we talked about, the Nasdaq and the spy, you know, today today we had a little bit of a setback.

[00:10:32]We we dropped 1.2% on the spy and we dropped 1.5% um on the the Nasdaq 100, the QQQ, and we're down a little bit more in after hours, and we're going to get into that in a little bit. We're going to get into that in a minute. Uh let me just uh finish off what I was saying over here, and then we'll talk about where I see markets going and and some opportunities upcoming.

[00:10:53]>> [snorts] >> So, right now as an investor, uh your your portfolio might feel weird, the market feels weird because we've ran so much, and you know we need a breather, and I agree, I think we need a breather, but I think no one's prepared for what's probably going to happen.

[00:11:09]Semiconductor, and we saw it today. We saw it today, clean it clear as day.

[00:11:14]SAS, cyber, and some consumer staples, and some healthcare stocks absolutely did great today. Mainly su- uh subscription as a service, SAS, right? Software, cloud, and um and um cyber did really, really well today.

[00:11:31]While the rest of the market was bleeding.

[00:11:34]Like 1.5% down and then you go through here and you see some of the names that were up today. Service now, guess what?

[00:11:41]Markets were down 1.5%? Nope, Service Now was up 5% today. What about Microsoft? Microsoft was up 3% today. Almost hit 5% up today. Zeta, my baby Zeta, she was almost up she was over 5% up today and then she came down a little bit 3.68% up today. But you're telling me three, four, five percent up today while the market is down one and a half percent, while the spy is down 1.25%?

[00:12:09]Do you see what do you see what's happening here?

[00:12:12]Do you see what's happening here?

[00:12:13]What's happening is that profits are being taken and Nvidia is down big today, AMD, semis are down big today, some space stocks were down big. Really just a lot of semiconductors guys, a lot of semiconductors, a lot of energy build out companies. They were down a good chunk of change today. They were down a good chunk of change today and they're so heavily weighted in the Nasdaq 100 and even in the S&P 500 that it's going to bring down markets because putting all that money in SaaS isn't going to combat it enough.

[00:12:46]If you took SaaS out today and cyber out today, we would have been down like 3% today. I think we would have been down double what we were today. But because you have SaaS, because you have these other sectors catching a bid and seeing rotation, selling of gains being rotated into these undervalued assets, I think that's why we didn't see the markets go crazy crazy low today. I mean 1.5% still isn't the greatest, but you're just starting to see gains and people selling some of their gains and maybe selling out of their positions completely and starting to rotate it into what is undervalued like software as a service, maybe defense and aerospace, maybe consumer staples, cybersecurity. Financials aren't there yet, right? Financials are still down on the month. Um consumers are still consumer staples are still down a little bit.

[00:13:40]Healthcare, down on the month, um except for like Oscar, which which has done really well for us. Health insurance has done really well for us. Oscar and UNH.

[00:13:49]>> [clears throat] >> But you're just starting to see this rotation happen. And so if you are more based out, if you do have more um stocks in different sectors, then I do think you're going to start seeing more gains in your portfolio. But I do think there's going to be a bit of digestion period here where the markets are going to come down a little bit, maybe for a small pullback, I think.

[00:14:18]While this digestion happens, but I do believe the markets can pull back because of the selling out of semiconductors and how heavily weighted they are. They pull back while while you see cybersecurity and software companies continue to catch a bid and a bid and maybe be green on red days.

[00:14:36]So that's what I'm really seeing. I think you shouldn't really be chasing semiconductors. Let them come to you.

[00:14:43]Let them pull back and come to you and your levels and where you think they're undervalued or fair valued and you want to get in. Don't be chasing here. And that's what I've been saying. That's what I was saying with that post that I made on X that that went pretty viral here. If you want to follow me over here, it's at the Ronnie V show as well.

[00:14:59]But that's all I was trying to say. Like you shouldn't be you shouldn't be chasing up here. I made other posts besides this one, too.

[00:15:05]>> [snorts] >> But yeah. So that's what I'm seeing. I think there's so many great opportunities in software and cloud. We touched on some of those today. I'll make a separate video on the top four uh SaaS software companies that I really, really like um this month and for, you know, the rest of the year and next year that are deeply, deeply undervalued.

[00:15:26]But, now that we talked about all that and the market being weird and everything, let's let's get a little bit more weird. So, the markets are weird because they've ran so much and they've ran so much on the spy as we see, it's ran, you know, straight up in a line basically from [snorts] March lows, around 629 on the spy, all the way up to a high of $749.53.

[00:15:49]Insane. Insane move. People were saying, "Oh my gosh, the volume is so low, like blah blah blah, like this is this is garbage, like this is going to just just just crash, blah blah blah." Right?

[00:15:59]Well, no, it didn't. It didn't do that.

[00:16:03]Didn't do that at all.

[00:16:04]So, what I do see though is something like the QQQ, right? And we're going to go over to this one.

[00:16:12]So, what has happened here is we got a bull trigger. This is these are my indicators, whatever. We're not going to get into all that. But, it's had a low and then it's ran up and then it keeps coming back and touching this green line. This green line is the 9 EMA. So, it's basically like a it's a moving average that just basically is 9 days lag behind and just kind of follows um, it's just taking the last 9 days and just kind of like giving it like a little support system on on its way up.

[00:16:39]Okay?

[00:16:40]>> [snorts] >> And then up here we have the Williams percentage range. Now, my like one of my biggest strategies is when you get up here, you run up to the red barrier and you kind of chop sideways here, that's great. That's great until you form this Williams consolidation box.

[00:16:56]You see the box?

[00:16:57]And then when you break out of said box, that is not good. Because what that means, it means that you now have gone from tight consolidation up here, which is a momentum indicator, and when this is up here going like this, the market's going like this. But, when you break out of that and it starts going down like this, that means momentum you're losing momentum, and that means the stock price usually follows. Or in for this case to QQQ, the Nasdaq 100, it typically follows.

[00:17:27]So, seeing this breakdown today on the Nasdaq 100 tells me that we are probably going to see a pullback. Right? The first level I can see is basically the smoothing average right here, which is about 697.

[00:17:45]The second I could see is about, you know, 6% peak to trough, which would be about the 21 EMA, about 680.

[00:17:53]And then if we got bad enough, you know, new new something kicking off, I don't know. Um 650, down here to the 50 EMA.

[00:18:04]I don't think we get down to the 50 EMA.

[00:18:06]I think it would be somewhere in here. I think, you know, a pullback to 696, 697, or 680 on the Nasdaq 100 till it really let this pendulum swing down to the green barrier before we swing back up, and then we go on our next leg higher.

[00:18:23]So, I do believe there's an opportunity coming very, very soon for the markets. For the markets, if you buy if you buy spy or QQQ ETFs, or if you want to get in some semis. I think the dip is mainly going to be caused by profit-taking and rotation out of semis into SAS, and like I said, I do believe those have ran so much that selling out of them and buying other things like SAS or healthcare or whatever, it's not going to be enough because people aren't going to fully put all that money back in because also we're at all-time highs, basically.

[00:18:59]So, yeah.

[00:19:01]Uh look for this 9 EMA right around 703 to be retested. If we bounce there, then it could be done. Like not saying that this can't just go back up here and start a new one. It's just typically, as I'll show you here, this is the Williams percentage range. I have a video on this breaking it all down. This is one of the best indicators that were ever that was ever created. Uh Larry Williams created it. Such a great indicator. But what I try to teach people, whether it's investing or trading, this indicator is a momentum indicator and it's like a pendulum swinging side to side. So you are going to have run-ups and run-downs. And the pendulum continuously over time swings side to side. It swings more rapidly on the daily, each candle being 1 day.

[00:19:47]It swings less rapidly when each candle is 1 week, and then it swings even less rapid when each candle is 1 month, right? You can kind of see that we are stuck more up here with the Williams percentage range when each candle is 1 month. And we're barely down here. Why?

[00:20:04]Because the markets go up into the right over time.

[00:20:07]We all know this. The markets go up into the right over time. You have corrections, you have crashes, you have bear markets, but over the long haul, on monthly, each candle is 1 month, you have a lot higher. From 1999, where we were sitting at $51 on the Nasdaq 100, to today where we are $709 on the Nasdaq 100. We swing like a pendulum side to side. The higher the time frame, the less volatile, the less swinging we do down to the downside, right?

[00:20:39]But when you get to the daily, that's where we can really swing to the downside way more often, right? So this is why it concerns me. It doesn't even really concern me cuz I'm positioned in SAS.

[00:20:50]I'm positioned in the right stocks right now that I believe that are going to see rotation into them. And overall investing, I've been getting I I like to go after what no one wants to touch, right? So Google there for a while at 150, 160, 170, anything under 200, I was buying like a madman. Google under 200.

[00:21:11]Now it's at What's Google at today?

[00:21:13]Google is at almost $400. So, I was buying when nobody wanted to touch Google, right?

[00:21:21]Down in here.

[00:21:24]Right? 140, 150, anywhere under 200, I was buying this thing. And now we zoom ahead, even down here when we got this pullback. I was 274. I was like, "Yeah, that's that's good pullback. I'll take it." And now we're up to 400. So, and and the whole narrative was up Google is going to get their lunch eaten by Open AI, blah, blah, blah. No. Not happening. Google's a beast.

[00:21:46]So, yeah. I liked I like to go after the things like we talked about right here.

[00:21:51]I'm not the kind of guy that's like, "I need to buy semiconductors right now because it's up 68% year-to-date." No, no, no, no, no. I'm the guy that's like, "Hmm, where's the best opportunities right now?" The best opportunities are in SaaS, defense and aerospace, healthcare, financials, cybersecurity. Let me go look in there.

[00:22:08]And then you get confirmation You get confirmation whenever cybersecurity and software and uh big tech and all these start really flipping. Flipping uh on one month performance, they start really going higher on a monthly performance.

[00:22:22]And then you can even do a compare tool and you can You can just monitor this.

[00:22:25]And then just realize like, "Okay, wow.

[00:22:28]Like software is catching up to semiconductors on a monthly performance basis, but look, software is all the way down here and semis are all the way up here. What do I want to buy? Hmm, I think I'll buy software cuz software is catching a bit. It's very obvious, very obvious, very obvious." And this is over here on the market briefs if you want to access to this.

[00:22:47]It's like 10 bucks a month.

[00:22:49]Um so, yeah. QQQ, we're breaking down.

[00:22:52]And like I told you, like a pendulum, we swing up here. The longer we stay up here, especially on a daily, the more the band gets stretched and stretched and stretched, and eventually you're going to let go and it's going to snap back down. And when it snaps back down, that's when you get pullbacks. That's when you get corrections. Now, on a daily on a daily it does move so so quickly that something like this, right?

[00:23:14]We were up here and then we moved down here. Well, that was like here or here to here and you got about 7% 7% pullback on the QQQ during um you know, basically that March move or whatever. And um well, this wasn't the full March move, obviously. We're all the way up here and it was a 10% plus.

[00:23:35]But from here, right?

[00:23:37]Typically, if it goes pretty quickly, it'll be down here. You're typically looking at a 2 to 5% pullback. 2 to 5% pullback. So, we've already had almost a 2%. I think we get more like a 3 to 5%.

[00:23:49]Somewhere in here. So, again, I'm looking at 678 upwards to like 697.

[00:23:55]That's where I'm really looking for a pullback here. And again, I think if you're in SaaS and I don't think those are going to get dragged down in the mud again. Um like if we have a macro event, obviously, that can happen, but I don't think that's going to happen. Um I don't think they get dragged down in the mud again. I think this is more like semis unwinding and dragging the markets down while people, you know, rotate more and more um into and start chasing SaaS companies because man, they just like if you look at ServiceNow, I mean, this thing has a lot of room to run. It has fallen a lot a lot a high of 238 it's all the way down at $95 now.

[00:24:35]Microsoft had a high of 556, came down here to this 2023 low.

[00:24:45]And now, you know, we're at like 419 421. And we have all the way up to to 555 if the market really wants to get this thing going, which I think it does.

[00:24:55]Got a little bear flag here breaking out, right? Got a new Williams consolidation box being formed. See?

[00:25:00]Look.

[00:25:02]Bullish goes up. That's a bullish box.

[00:25:05]Bearish Williams consolidation box, bearish. Bullish Williams consolidation box, long as we stay up here, baby, we're going higher, right? Very, very simple. Very, very simple stuff. It's all about momentum and following the momentum. One more thing I didn't like, yields. Yields are moving higher. The two-year's breaking out, the 10-year's breaking out, the 20-year's breaking out, not on the daily, but on the weekly. And this is very, very worrisome. Very worrisome. I would like to see us reject here at this resistance here on the 20-year and kind of get a little bit of a pullback or stoppage in this thing cuz you don't want to see yields start running away. If you start seeing yields run away, then people say, "Well, I can get I can get five, six percent on my money by doing nothing and just putting it in bonds? Okay, I'll do that." And then they pull money out of the market. This is the market. This is bonds. As bonds go up, then people pull money out of the market and they put it in money market funds or bonds, right? And that's where they're just sitting there like, "I can get five to six percent and do nothing." Versus I could get, you know, nine to 10% on the spy on average per year, right?

[00:26:19]So, a lot of risk in this, wait, like barely any risk here. So, that's why you start That's why you start seeing the market start to sell off as bonds go up. Bonds go up, market start to sell off for that very reason.

[00:26:33]So, yeah, I don't like that. Those need to come down. Those need to make a move down. Um but that's another thing, like again, like SaaS can still catch a bid because SaaS is so undervalued that as people start to exit semis because they're like, "Oh, I can put money in bonds and I can put money in SaaS companies because they're undervalued and rotation happens and some money gets pulled out of the markets and that's why you're going to see, right? That's why you'll see, you know, a pullback here.

[00:27:03]That's how it goes. So, yeah. Um that's all I really got. If you want to join the community, I'll leave that in the link below. You can join the investing community, trading community, you can come do both. We've been crushing on on both of them, honestly.

[00:27:16]And yeah, hope you guys enjoyed the video. Hope you guys enjoyed the the analysis and I'll catch you guys in the next one. Have a great day.