Modern warfare has fundamentally shifted from expensive, high-tech military systems to cost-effective, mass-producible drones, as demonstrated by the Iran war where the Shahed 136 drone (costing $20,000-50,000) overwhelmed advanced air defense systems costing millions, forcing nations like Turkey to develop indigenous alternatives like the Kuzgun drone (1,000+ km range, 6-hour endurance) while also creating countermeasures, as the economics of war now favor quantity and replaceability over individual system sophistication.
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Türkiye to produce its own kamikaze dronesAñadido:
Hello and welcome to Straight Talk. I'm Yusuf Erak. The Iran war has exposed a major shift in modern warfare. Cheap drones are overwhelming some of the world's most advanced and expensive military systems. It's forcing countries to rethink how wars are fought and how money is spent. Now as the US struggles with rising costs and shrinking stockpiles, countries like Turkey are racing to build the next generation of low-cost drones and ways to counter them. Alaa Hussein explains.
>> Their navy's gone there. Air force [music] is gone. Their anti-aircraft is all gone. It's all gone. Their radar is all gone.
Their leaders are all gone.
The next set of leaders are all gone.
And the next set of leaders are mostly gone.
>> But also gone are the days when expensive [music] meant protected.
The Iran war proved the drone doesn't need to be perfect. It just needs to get the job [music] done. The Shahed 136 just changed the economics of war.
What makes it impressive isn't high-tech sophistication.
Iran's Shahed drone is cheap and low-tech. Motorcycle engines, basic off-the-shelf parts.
It flies [music] at just over 160 km/h, carries a 40 to 50 kg warhead, and navigates by commercial GPS.
Iran has unleashed more than 5,000 drone and missile attacks all over the region.
Taken direct [music] aim at US bases and the Gulf's energy infrastructure.
But Iran isn't the only operator.
Russia updated [music] the Shahed, calling it the Geranium to match Ukraine's battlefield needs.
Its low cost allows Russia and Iran to deploy them in overwhelming numbers.
The US and its allies face a much harder problem.
Replenishing their advanced [music] systems is far more expensive.
The US has long led the world in advanced [music] technology, but drone warfare has exposed an unexpected gap.
It costs the US [music] military over a million dollars to shoot down a drone that cost 20 to 50,000 to build. [music] So, as the war drains weapon stockpiles and forces the US to spend billions on defense, Ukraine has developed anti-Shahed interceptors [music] that Gulf states now rely on to protect both their skies and economies.
Drones have become central to modern warfare >> [music] >> for a simple reason.
They are cheap to produce in large numbers, easy to operate, and can strike with precision.
Turkey [music] is aware of that reality.
The country is working on its own version of the Shahed-style one-way attack [music] drones, while also figuring out how to defend against them.
At the Saha Defense Expo, [music] Turkish manufacturer STM unveiled its Kuzgun long-range one-way attack drone.
It has a range of over 1,000 km, 6 hours of endurance, and is built for deep strike missions.
These advancements highlight Turkey's shift toward long-range, cost-effective precision weaponry, and domestic [music] self-reliance.
The Shahed drone showed a problem experts [music] have been pointing out for years.
The US military knows how to make super advanced, high-cost weapons, but it has a hard time making cheap, simple ones quickly.
The Shahed continues to be used, the world's strongest military is still working through the necessary steps, and turning to allies for support.
But, if price no longer buys protection, what will?
Ahlam El-Husseini, Straight Talk.
>> Furthermore, joining me now from Toronto is Bilal Khan. He's the founder of Quwa Defense News and Analysis. And from London, Khalil Dewan, drone warfare researcher at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
Gentlemen, thanks for joining me. The war in Iran has taught many people a lot of lessons, especially uh modern warfare researchers and military planners. And uh Khalil, let's start with you. Actually, no, Bilal, let's start with you.
Um when you're looking at the past two two two and a half months, the war in Iran, what's your major takeaway uh from what's been happening on the battlefield?
>> Yeah. Um so, my major takeaway is that the battlefield has changed in the sense that highly scalable, lost, very easily replaceable weapons have basically not replaced the older systems, but have taken up the leading role. And with that, they have been used, especially by Iran, to stress, you know, air defense systems that have been designed to handle, let's say, you know, sporadic strikes, but the type of threat that not only provides a, you know, scaled threat by creating a very dense quantitative mass of, you know, munitions, but it also basically depletes and stresses those air defense systems, which are much costlier, you know, on a, you know, on a surface-to-air missile versus that munition front. And as a result, you know, it forces militaries to start rethinking how they are, you know, architecting their air defense systems beyond just what we call, you know, defense in the defense industry world, like kinetic systems, like anti-air missiles, forcing [snorts] to think in terms of electronic warfare, you know, in terms of a directed energy weapons, and all these other areas. And the other side of it is that, definitely, Iran's use of these weapons has been a bit of a, like, I don't want to use the word game-changer, but I would say like a a bit of a disruptor in the sense that, you know, traditionally, countries would have relied a lot on their air power to be able to affect the kind of distant strikes and strategic impacts that Iran has been able to achieve through its, you know, loitering munitions on one end and ballistic missiles on the other.
>> [snorts] >> And now Iran has shown that with these capabilities, you can have a, somewhat analogous system. Obviously, Iran, I think, would still wish it had some measure of air power just to follow up with, but at the end of the day, um the fact is that it's touched every part of the Gulf with its capabilities.
>> So, Khalil, going on what Bilal's saying, I mean, obviously, these wars of attrition have now become a war of cost and how much financial pain you can give to the other side. So, has the Ministry of Finance become the second most important ministry when it's wartime after the Ministry of Defense? I mean, are we going to see countries now specifically looking at balance sheets to see who's spending how much and how much financial cost we can inflict on the uh of the other side?
>> Absolutely. I think we're seeing new concepts of drone doctrine being implemented in the field.
Um no longer are we interested in seeing the use of F-15s or F-18s, which cost around 20 to 40,000 US dollars uh for one operation um in the air. We're now looking at 5,000 to 10,000 uh US dollars with these um FPV drones.
Um and which is as you guessed as I already said, which is highly scalable tactical drones. And the more higher stock you have, that effectively will act as a deterrent against adversary threats.
Um and these tactical drones and kamikaze drones uh and loitering uh munitions effectively um have succeeded in overwhelming air defense of traditional air defense systems.
Um and this has had a knock-on effect not only just in the air, but also land and sea domains. We've seen the naval um ships, for instance, uh utilizing and installing different type of sensors to um look out for uh unmanned boats, uh drones, as well as um air drones. Um and of course, um I'm sure we can also touch upon how the targeting drone doctrine has also been changed in uh modern warfare as a result of the Iran war.
>> Mhm.
So, Bilal has uh air defense, like the THAAD missile, couple million a piece, or uh the Patriots, a couple million a piece. Have they been priced out? And looking at the movements of the US military in the war on Iran, where they have these massive strike groups with the aircraft carriers, but they can't really get too close to Iran. Have aircraft carriers carriers become obsolete now?
>> Um no, I wouldn't say they've become obsolete. I mean, for example, uh, uh the US's challenges um, exceed those of where it's has in terms of equipment.
So, what I mean by that is that if you look at China, for example, it's investing across-the-board both within those loitering munitions to, you know, supersonic and hypersonic missiles to aircraft carriers. So, evidently, all these systems still have a piece in, you know, in the China, the Chinese have their own equivalent to the THAAD and the HQ-19 series, for example. So, I mean, the point being is that all that's all those traditional systems have a role. It's just that what's happened is that the US, I would argue, came a bit unprepared for the kind of for the new emerging style of warfare that's resulted from the availability of loitering munitions. That being said, um, one thing to keep in mind is that, you know, systems like the THAAD, the Patriot, they were not designed in a world where these sorts of threats were imagined. Like, um, if you look at the Shahed-style loitering munitions and those like it, they are very simple designs built with relatively crude materials. Like, they don't use cutting-edge carbon fiber or, you know, alloys or anything. Um, you know, they use basic fiberglass, um, molds and they use uh, piston engines. Um, you know, they are assembled often in very, you know, if you look at the Ukraine war, they're assembled in relatively rudimentary facilities many of the times. So, the point being is that these are very low cost to build and the problem is that even if they were, let's say, very failure-prone, if you were to launch a thousand of them and let's say 80% were destroyed, you're still having 200 successful hits and those hits could be anything from high-complexity, high-cost radars to THAAD batteries to, um, runways to aircraft. So, 200's 200's it's a big target list. But then, at the same time, the other 800 are intercepted, they depleted those eight those air defense stock, basically. Um, and that is the challenge that the US and the Gulf states facing. But, if you look at the Gulf states in particular, they're adapting quite a bit. Um, they've started working with Ukraine on specific solutions to deal with loitering munitions, and one of those are things like uh FPV drones as well.
So, drone interceptors, and they cost like around, you know, 1,000 to 3,000 dollars, and they are lower in cost than some of these uh Shahid-style drones as well. So, it's mostly that the Americans have just I argue more become unprepared for this type of situation. They weren't anticipating a fight like this, basically.
>> Mhm. I'm happy that you touched on how to deal with these swarms because that is definitely the buzzword right now because you have 500 to 1,000 of these loitering munitions coming in. Uh where in the past you'd have uh couple of big cruise missiles, ballistic missiles fired at a certain site. Uh they get picked off, they don't get picked off, they're successful. That's a different story, but now you're sending hundreds, if not thousands, to hit a critical site and even if they you intercept 99% of them, that's still a lot getting through just from the law of averages. So, Khalil, these swarms, how is that going to reshape air defense?
>> Uh absolutely. Well, what we are seeing on the field is that swarms are effectively overwhelming air defense systems. And swarms, um drones as well as loitering munitions as well, they worked in an augmented fashion. Um whether you're on the attacking side or the or you're defending a territory with your counter-drone systems. We've seen, for instance, in Ukraine they have developed over the years a a software which integrates all of the systems, which uses AI to pinpoint with quite precision accuracy, um to defend their territory as well as the skyline. And this nature and concept of drone warfare, which is highly asymmetric in um in in its approach, Um, really it's about using less force and hard power as possible, cheaper, but have the same um, mission um, to be accomplished effectively. So, I think when we look at what's happening with Zelensky um, doing a tour effectively of the Gulf um, as well as other countries, um, there are also several different countries which have similar offerings. For example, Turkey has a Sky Dagger which is very um, interesting to see. Um, um, kind of an offshoot of a of a larger company, uh, Baykar Technologies.
Um, and we've seen other systems such as direct energy attacks, for instance, lasers. And that's something that Western countries have also been developing. It's very very cheap to use.
And these systems, while they're being used for tactical drones or the larger drones or kamikazes, they will soon be used against other um, um, modules or if you like nodes, um, which um, enable these systems to operate.
>> Hopefully, you have painted a very interesting and realistic, but at the same time, scary picture of the future.
We are out of time, Bilal Khalil. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me.
Let's continue the conversation by moving over to Ankara where we're joined by Özgür Güldal Yüz. He's the general manager at STM Defense. Mr. Güldal Yüz, thanks for joining me. A lot's happened with the war on Iran and um, many lessons to be learned and while military planners are watching very closely, so are general managers at defense industries like yourself. So, I wanted to ask you, what have you learned by watching the is waged in the war on Iran and are we going to see these lessons instituted into new products at your company or maybe enhanced capabilities for existing products that you may have?
>> Thank you very much Yusuf Bey for giving me this opportunity. As you have mentioned really the recent war have shown everybody that the usage of autonomous systems will increase day by day. Actually starting from Karabakh war then Russian-Ukrainian war and the recent war with Iran has shown us especially autonomous systems that has long range and cost effective will be used more and more effectively from now on.
As STM we have learned that actually we are in the right track because for over a decade STM has been working on autonomous systems starting with cargo, with loitering tactical UAVs. Step by step our motivation was to increase our range and increase our product portfolio and also deepen the technology that is being used in the products.
So STM will be introducing more and more products in this area actually from now on also but just recently in SAHA for example we have just announced our new product Kuzgun which is the kind of national long range fixed wing solution.
I believe that these systems will be used more more more actively in the battlefield from now on.
And we will start to continue developing more products according to the feedback that we get from the field and also the following the technology developments as STM also.
>> Mhm. Now at SAHA Istanbul one of the major products that your company unveiled was a UAV inspired by the Shahed 136 drone the famous Iranian drone that they've been using in uh war in Ukraine, and also uh the war in Iran as well. So, is the Kuzgun the same drone that you were talking about, the one that's inspired by the Shahed 136? And also, tell us a little more. Does it have enhanced capabilities? How would the Turkish armed forces use it? And who's your target uh target clientele for this type of drone?
>> Well, actually I can say that Kuzgun is not has not been inspired by any kind of product or is not a copy ranged fixed-wing loitering munition system.
Actually, it's an indigenous design of STM, completely designed by our engineers. Its form has been designed by the mechanical engineer software.
And our autonomy solutions that we have been developing for many, many years has been integrated long-range product. It will have a range that's more than 1,000 km. Its endurance will be over 6 6 hours, and it will have a very effective warhead.
The recent wars have really showed that such kind of products can change the game in the field.
And the main advantage of Kuzgun is that it does not need a runway.
It can be deployed >> [clears throat] >> from uh ground vehicles or even be it can be launched with rocket-assisted launch launching systems.
And the main advantage of Kuzgun also its radar cross-section is very small.
So, it cannot be detected by radars very easily.
And also, its uh navigation system is advanced, so that in electronic warfare conditions, it will not be jammed very easily.
And so, the pit it has been taught to go before, it will be follow following it completely. And we really believe that it will be very advantageous to provide very precise shots.
And the main advantage of such kind of systems targets such as command centers, radar systems, and air defense installations will be the main target of Kuzgun.
And the current systems that are actively used to against such kind of systems like Kuzgun are really very very expensive. So, having a very price-wise competitive drone like Kuzgun, I think will enhance the powers of first Turkish armed forces, and also to align them friendly nations that we are going to make exports to.
>> I want to ask you, I mean, there's been a lot of conflicts of late, as you stated, uh war in Ukraine, uh the Iran conflict, and many other conflicts, smaller conflicts that might not uh be in the headlines.
Have you seen this uptick in warfare uh impact the amount of demand for products for your company? And also, when you're sourcing uh when you're sourcing materials, are you see are you facing any issues or difficulties sourcing materials for your own product lines?
>> Uh well, actually, I should say that nearly now all armies or defense forces uh are seeing such kind of autonomous systems not as a optional item, but it's really a must in designing the new defense system of all countries.
Uh starting with Kargu, you know, it has been in the inventory of Turkish armed forces since 2018. Togan and our other products are being used actively in more than 15 countries already.
And we experienced that all of those countries have seen or experienced the advantage of such kind of autonomous systems already. And the demands after the Iranian war, especially from all the countries that is we have made exports already, but also new candidate customers I can say that the demand is always really increasing because now it's a must to have such kind of loitering munition systems and also it's a must to have such kind of anti-drone systems to protect yourself in in those issues.
So, I can really really say that the demand for such kind of autonomous systems is really very high now and we really believe that it will increase step by step.
>> Mhm.
>> As regard to your second question about the way to produce it and answer the main motivation of STM under the umbrella of SSP is to increase the local contribution in Turkey as much as possible, especially on the product producing side we are trying to use ecosystem, the defense ecosystem that has been developed in Turkey as much as possible. So, I can really say that up to now we didn't experience any severe problems about our production lines.
But we also know that in in the future when these products come to serial production more and more of course there might be some problems, but as we are mainly using Turkish built products in our all systems we don't think that we will have a very serious problem in the serial production or mass production of these products also, which we did not face up to now.
>> Mhm.
>> I want to ask you one last question. I mean, I noticed that your company also makes an unmanned vessel or a sea drone, if you will, uh to simplify uh this product. Now, we're seeing a lot of shift towards these autonomous drones, whether they be in the air, whether they be in the sea, uh whether they be on the land. Tell us a little about the sea drone, and a little about the future of warfare. Do you see everything going completely autonomous?
And if so, what's that time frame in your mind?
>> Well, as STM, you know that we have really naval engineering experience for more over a decade.
And we really believe uh that the usage of autonomous systems in all areas of the combat zone will be increasing day by day.
Uh so, we have developed some unmanned surface vehicles, and also unmanned underwater vehicles, also. We have just launched two of them in Saha again. One is Yak-2, which will be which will be a kamikaze unmanned surface vehicle.
With a speed of more than 50 knots, and can be operated as a swarm. So, it will be really changing the situation on the sea. We really believe that. And also, we have just released Tengiz, which is can be called as a extra large unmanned underwater vehicle. Uh that can operate up to 400 m deep of water.
And the main idea that we are trying to follow in STM is that we really know that the wars will be more and more between unmanned systems and unmanned systems. And technologies like swarming, or heterogeneous swarms, actually.
Unmanned sea platforms, naval platforms working together with unmanned air platforms.
And so, such kind of technologies will be more and more used in the future.
>> STM Defense, one of the companies on the cutting edge of autonomous vehicles and vessels, general manager Özgür Gülerüz, thanks for joining us and thanks for sharing your thoughts and your opinions.
And that's all for this edition of Straight Talk with me, Yusuf Erel. If you got any comments, please share them with us on X at Straight Talk TRT. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel where you can find more exclusive content. Until next time, take care and goodbye.
>> [music] [music]
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