$AMC Stock Deep Dive: Technicals, Box Office Strength & Company Financials!

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:01]What's going on everybody? Welcome back to Fox on Finance where we analyze the stock market using technical analysis.

[00:00:07]Please understand that I am not a financial adviser and nothing in my videos is financial advice. Please do your own research and buy what you want to buy. All right, everybody. I'm back again with another AMC update for you.

[00:00:19]And this time, we're going to go a little bit deeper with our analysis.

[00:00:22]We're going to take a look at the box office numbers right now for Q2 currently as we are about to be turning over into June, our last month of Q2.

[00:00:32]And I wanted to show you guys something on the financial statement sheet real quick for AMC and then we will jump into our technical analysis portion of the video. Okay, so that's what I got planned for you guys today. You're going to want to stick around and see this because I think it's really going to paint the picture clear as to why we are getting the price action that we're getting with the stock. Okay, let's jump right in looking at the box office numbers. And right now, guys, I have it as a quarter to date. And for 2026, we are at 1.854 billion. And when we compare that to uh 2025, 1.778 billion. So, breaking through the old uh 2025 uh Q2 Q2 to date. And then obviously we are surpassing 2023 which was a really good uh Q2 by the way. I think in 2023 we had like a $2.6 billion quarter something like that. So the fact that we are trending above that by $200 million is really good sign guys. And then when we go down to the more important dates which is the preandemic uh years in 2019 2018 we're sitting at two billion uh 50 2 billion50 million for those two years.

[00:01:44]And in comparison, guys, we were $200 million off quarter to date from our preandemic box office totals for the quarter. Okay, so that is really huge because when you look at June, we have massive titles coming for June with the He-Man, Masters of the Universe movie.

[00:02:02]You have your Toy Story 5 coming out. Uh Supergirl is coming out. a lot of really heavyhitting movies I think that are gonna, you know, make June close to at least a billion dollars. If that's the case, then guys, we could be looking at, you know, 2.8 billion if we can hit a billion from this point forward. All right, in totality. Now, again, some of the movies, I think Supergirl's like got a week in June, so I don't know if we'll be able to do it, but it's going to be really close. And I was projecting originally about 2.5 to$2.7 billion in that range. But I mean it would be impressive to hit 2.7 2.8 even if it really goes well. So that is all looking phenomenal from the box office standpoint. All right, that's where we are with that. Let's take a look at the financial sheet real quick. And I just want to show you this briefly, guys, because I don't think many people know this, but really in short, Q4 2025, we paid about $90 million in interest payments. Okay, right up here. I don't I don't think you guys can even see my little uh arrow icon on this sheet right now. But it was negative92 million about $93 million in interest payments that AMC had to put up that quarter and automatic losses right because of the debt. So 4 billion in debt that's what that did to us in the Q4 of 2025. Now when you look at Q1 under the interest incurred over here Q1 2026 guys $50 million interest payment. So that's because we refinanced the debt. It got pushed out to I believe it was 2031 which we got a better interest rate. I believe it was like a 2% differential from what AMC already had before. But really more importantly guys, you know, not only cutting that interest payment in half by 50% is a good thing, but within the terms of the new loan agreement and the lenders that obviously AMC is working with, if the IBIDA continues to grow, right, it means less risk for lenders and that interest rate is built in to drop and it actually can happen quarter over quarter. We don't necessarily have to keep refinancing the debt based on what I did my research on and found. It is pretty much if AMC continues to trend in this really good direction that it's in then that interest payment can actually get shorter and shorter. So, it's sort of like a flex right now from what I gathered. And that's huge because obviously they just announced that we had a positive $38 million for the IBIDA and that means pretty much at operational level AMC is net positive.

[00:04:37]It is just that these interest payments are kind of killing us right off the bat. Like when you have a hund00 million dollars already and you are trying to wait for this box office to recovering and get the movie slate built back up, it's kind of hard to go into a net positive for the quarter when you're already paying that kind of interest.

[00:04:55]So, the fact that the box office is recovering, like we just said, for Q2 compared to the other years, especially the really heavier uh good prepandemic years that we had before where we did really well, you know, it's looking really, really solid right now. So, I just wanted to bring that up because I don't think people really understand that. But guys, right there, it kind of paints the picture as to why we're already starting to see this turnaround for the company. And when I jump into the technical analysis part of it, it all is starting to really line up well here. So, I know we got a couple hundred new members and I usually like to break this down a little bit more in depth for people so they can understand how I've drawn this out. And we'll start right here from the top. Um, actually, we'll go from the real real top here. All right. So, when we had this ape conversion split, right, we had the stock split and the ape conversion situation, it was a massive fall off this cliff here and it created these large gaps to the downside. Okay. And then we fell into this like sort of box region here that you see. Okay. And really we did not stop this falling and this bleeding out of the stock until right about this portion here. Okay.

[00:06:02]Stock tried to rebound and stop it here but it wasn't enough. Pressure was just too much to the downside and we fell all the way back down and then just distributed. Okay. So that is a significant level that we will have to break to prove that we are going to get this impulsive action to the upside. And I know my older members that have been here for a while since I started the channel are going to know exactly where I'm going with this. But when you have this kind of price action to the downside, there is really no ranges built out in here and there's no resistances built. So if you can get out of the heavy resistance, which is really down in this box region here, when you pop out the other side of this guys and you break this level, and I'll show you my schematic I have drawn out. when you pop up out of this level, right, you might see something like this where you retest it, but then you're going to get these like crazy impulse shots right back up here again, okay, to the upside because again, as I explained, you don't really have the resistances here. So, this price action can pretty much hot knife through butter this to the upside.

[00:07:01]All right, so just pay attention to that as you guys follow me on this channel.

[00:07:06]We'll be continuing to talk about these levels and I really like to keep it present in the here and now on that because guys we can only estimate so much with price targets. We have to see first how price responds in these levels. Okay, so that's just a little snippet and a little deeper dive on the resistance portion of it. But right here you could see that my ceiling top at 1377 which would be the last point we have to break like I said before we see that kind of like straight squeeze type of pattern similar to January 2021 and June 2021. Um that's exactly what we would see I think after that move. But right now I have my descending resistances that are starting from that point as well connecting here to your 1188 um topping point. We had that impulse move in May 2024.

[00:07:49]So when you see that line connect there, it kind of just creates this nice descending resistance for us to have to come back up to at some point. But even more deeper underneath right here after the impulse move dropped down. Price tried to rebound here. could not get back up there to that $112 and then continue. So with that rejection, I drew my descending resistance line and connected it to the uh closest point which was here at the time. And I've left this alone. I've not changed anything. So that is your 556 resistance right there. And really what I said on this channel was that we had to break these two initially. Like these were the two to break the 556 descending here and the 1188 descending there. And we did break those guys with that more recent 100% surge from the all-time low at 93 cents. You guys, we did see that broke out. And I mapped out a couple different scenarios as to how this could play out.

[00:08:43]A lot of people were gotten a little frustrated because I drew out a slower schematic. And I drew this up using the previous uh strengths and resistances, right? Uh resistances and supports, I should say, right? And the uh volume profile where the volume was sitting at.

[00:09:00]Okay, so drew that out on the slower end so that you guys could see if this 93% low is in fact in this would be a slower build. Okay, and obviously this goes on into like 2027.

[00:09:12]But again, this is just showing you like what it would be like if this thing really was drawn out and we didn't get like the impulsive moves to the upside.

[00:09:19]Okay, so this is really our slow slow scenario. But as you can see where we are currently, price came down from that 100% plus move, right? and we started distributing down and on my support that I drew here from the 93 cent all-time low, right? We broke that support but then reclaimed it and I did not move my support. So, the fact that we broke underneath and reclaimed it and you can see we have 1 2 3 4 5 6 seven trading candles on top of it, especially this last big one from Friday. We closed at $1.73 with a top around 100 or$180 almost at $180. That would have been really nice if we got that. But yeah, $180 high on Friday. So, I'm really liking the strength of this move so far. I want to see if we hold this trend line. And again, like I said, this is not going to be a onetoone match. Like, I didn't sit here like a mad scientist like mapping out this slow trajectory, but I'm just showing you guys already this thing has deviated even from the slower um drawing that I put up. Okay. So, at any point in time, it's still on the table that we get that M pattern as well. In the past, when you saw the 1188 impulse move, we did have this situation where AMC pretty much did one of these. It came up, came back down, came back up, came back down, and then you got the straight shot up like this. So, I won't be surprised if you see something like this as well and it just kind of gets up to this uh top resistance level because like I just showed you guys, we already broke the 1188, we broke to 5.56 and this is our 1390 descending resistance line. Okay, so we're going to meet that resistance line right at about 5 to 550. $5 to $5.50 50s is about the range that we would hit price-wise if this kind of goes in the fashion I think it would go.

[00:11:09]All right, so just keep that in mind.

[00:11:11]That is also another pattern I've been tracking from May 2024. But in reality, no matter what, I do think that this price should continue to trend upward based on how things are looking. Like I just showed you with the fundamentals of the company, right, in the box office.

[00:11:24]Everything is looking really, really good, at least through 2026. Um, from what we can see on the slate, right? So, that is your trajectory mapped out for you guys to see kind of what the patterns are looking like right now so far in the trends. But, let's look at our indicators. We're going to jump in here and look at our pivot point indicators. And again, this just reiterates why I'm really bullish right now on it. And you guys know me by now.

[00:11:48]I like to be very objective on this channel. I like to get like hypebeast mode here. But it's hard not to be bullish when you have 1 2 3 4 5 six.

[00:11:55]Like I said, seven trading candles not only above my support, which is really a V-shaped tight support. You know, it's not the best support to really draw out.

[00:12:04]Technical guy could move this down to this level of rebound, but I'm just kind of leaving it for now to see how it plays out. But with those seven candles above my support line and then again having seven candles above your pivot line here in blue, this is kind of the median in between whether the stock's going to trend towards the support targets or the resistance targets, right? And if we're trading above the P line here in blue, this pivot point line is telling you right now that it's kind of weak in terms of resistance for us.

[00:12:31]So we are going to head up towards probably a $1.97$1.98 pretty much matching the previous top in this range here, right? And if we can keep getting the momentum, your next target would be at $243. And then R3 would put you at $2.92. Okay? And that is just for the month of May. We are going to get new resistance targets and support targets for the month of June.

[00:12:55]So those new ones will generate when the calendar flips on Monday. Okay? So I'm curious to see where those numbers are going to lie now for the new pivot points for June. But it just gives you an idea in the immediate sense where this price action could go. Now, if for some reason there's some catastrophic event, and I think it would be taking more world news than company news to bring this down, um, then you would probably come down to S1 at least bare minimum at a dollar or$102. All right.

[00:13:22]And again, I do have that support here at 93 cents mapped out horizontally. And you, you know, you'd have to break that obviously, and when you do, you would go down to a new all-time low. I just don't think it would make sense for us to do that at this point given again the nature of how things are turning around for the company. You just had IWM hit a new all-time high for the small cap basket. It's just too many bullish things, guys, going on in that sense outside of again the world news. I just don't see anything justifying a move down to these levels. All right. And that's too would be your Pantano zone at 53 cents. Okay. And who knows, like I said, we've seen crazier these days. You know, I hope it doesn't happen. I like the trend that we're on now. I'd like to stick to it. But just keep your mind open for these targets.

[00:14:04]All right? You don't have to buy into them 100%, but just know like they could go into that range. Any one of these here, the up or downside. All right, so with our pivot points out of the way, let's look at our EMAs. And again, this just again painting the picture of my bullish outlook because you see that the nine, which is the shorter term EMA, crossed already over your 2748 and your 100. All right. And that's not really even the most significant crossover.

[00:14:30]you're now getting your uh 27 is about the 27 and the 48 are about to cross over the 100 if we can keep this momentum going. And with this big candle here, I think when the EMA updates, you'll see this like starting to get real close to crossing over that 100.

[00:14:47]All right. And already the 27 in pink here crossed over the 48 um back in April of 20 or sorry April 17th 2026 and has now remained above. It has not crossed back down over the 48 the 27 here in pink. Right? So that is a good sign. We are continuing to see this trend upward and even more you are seeing multiple candles. We'll we'll count at least four candles right here that are sitting right on top of our 100 day EMA, which is really really a good sign, guys, to see that kind of strength hold up. That's what we want to see. We want to see these candles continue to print above this level because your 200 day EMA is sitting right here in yellow at a 94. So, this thing is right in range to be taken over. And obviously, the 200 has been resistance for so long for us. So, if we can get these EMAs down here, these bands to cross over that 200, guys, I think it's a wrap. At that point, you really could see your impulsive move to the upside. And that would actually kill my slow theory. And believe me, I am totally fine with that.

[00:15:56]But right now, I want to keep it realistic. I don't want to get too excited and gung-ho because every time that happens, I think a lot of people are let down and it's exhausting. So, we got to start to keep more of a level head on this and imagine that this could get stretched out even further, right?

[00:16:09]Right? They've already proven that this could happen. Big money can control this thing, right? It's apparent at this point. So, EMA wise, guys, structure looking very well. I love the way that this that is mapping out so far. And again, 200 just sitting there ready to be claimed. So, that is looking great.

[00:16:26]And speaking of crossing over, we have the MACD on the daily. I said this in last video. We were about to cross over on the MACD because again, bearish volume was fading and we had our MACD line curling. it was just kissing the signal line and obviously the last four trading days flipped bullish and we are now about to ascend upward even more I think so on the daily time frame that looks really good and when you look at the weekly honestly again the weekly uh crossover took place in the beginning of April okay for the weekly MACD the MACD sign MACD crossed the signal line right here beginning of April and it's maintained above the signal line since has not even shown any signs of curling pulling back down. So, I do think guys, we are going to get a pretty big move. I don't know if it's going to be your big squeeze move this summer, but I'm telling you guys, this summer going into the fall, like this thing is looking like it is ready to start pushing pushing. And I say that too because as we are about to finish out our last month of the quarter, when we go to the quarterly right here, guys, look at the bearish momentum just dying. Okay, this is like your bare thesis in visual format right here. Just disintegrating.

[00:17:40]Okay. And I said this in the last video, I believe before that originally this right here, this move that we had the January 2021 and June 2021 squeezes, you know, we fell in love with that move, but to be honest with you, this bearish volume was very consistent the entire time leading up into that move. All right, there was no subtle breaking down at all here. you know, even with this uh somewhat dying off right here from this candle to this candle on the histogram, guys, it just flipped right automatically to a squeeze candle um for these two quarters back to back. It doesn't make sense because AMC was absolutely in the at this point.

[00:18:18]Like in theory, the bare thesis made sense because of the pandemic and whatnot and obviously incurring that much debt. Like it was really scary times for AMC, but still we got this uh June or January and June squeeze out of it. And now I'm telling you that okay this was pretty much a lie. The company actually was really doing bad and obviously it shows you that right? I mean this thing was dying out slowly before even the pandemic. You could see the decline. Now over here this bearish volume um and sentiment has been fading quarter by quarter very very slowly out.

[00:18:50]And I don't think a lot of people see this from a far out view. But I'm telling you guys this right here is about to flip bullish here. I think the next quarter we're going to be damn close. And I don't want to get too excited here, but I'm telling you right now, like this looks a lot better in terms of progression than this lie that was being told, right? All of a sudden, you just flipped bullish out of nowhere.

[00:19:10]But like things were nowhere near as good as they are now for the company.

[00:19:15]So this shows me right here, guys, that the bearish thesis is dying. And you have your MACD signal line down in here, or your MACD line about to cross the signal line here. I mean, like I said, next quarter, I think it's almost a lock. I don't want to get too excited, like I said, but it's really tight right there. So, just wanted to show you the MACD. That is what that is looking like.

[00:19:36]Let's take a look at our volume profile, and then I think I can get out of here and let you guys get back to your Sunday night here.

[00:19:45]So, as I said before, I did use this volume profile. It's the fixed range VP tool right here to my left in blue, this dotted line. And essentially, guys, for people that are new and don't know this indicator, I drew the range out from this 1188 peak, and I connected this most recent peak all the way down to your all-time low. And this is the volume it's showing you. And really, this big blue dotted line is sort of the point of control line for you. All right, this is the line that we have to break if we are going to continue to progress upward. So the nice thing is is price action is attracted to this level but when it gets above it we will start to clear this pocket in here. So it is the price where uh sorry it is the level where price is going to attract to but also heavy resistance. All right. So when you get up to this level at $2.75 we have to wait and see kind of how AMC responds. If we get multiple candles stacking above this level guys awesome.

[00:20:46]That means we are ready to take in this pocket right here. All right. And I've drawn this out before, but this big node here is pretty heavy in volume, right?

[00:20:54]1.23 billion in volume. But after this candle here, this volume bar, guys, this gets really shorter. And so I want you to look at it from this perspective of like resistance right here that when we do this and we accomplish the task of breaking above the 275, we have a pretty clean shot right through this pocket range up to the next point which is the most heavy resistance at about $4 to $5 range, right? $469 right here and right here double stacked. All right. And the process is the same. If you can clear that pocket and you get up to this resistance, yes, you may come up through the price action and I'll draw this roughly. It's just going to be kind of um a little ugly, but let's say you get up to this level.

[00:21:38]Maybe you reject down and then you break through the pocket. Like I said, we're rising up. We come back up to this level of resistance here. Maybe it's not quite ready. We do a little bit of a cooling off and then we go for the break. Okay.

[00:21:53]Up. And obviously if I pull this down, the real break would be heading up to that ceiling level here, right? We have to wait and to see how the price responds to the resistances that are ahead. But if we get that clean break above this, which obviously there's nothing here. There's no resistance.

[00:22:12]These bars start to really fade out and to no resistance at all. So in theory, price should be able to scoot right up past this resistance here if we confirm and hold this with strength. So that is where you would shoot up is pretty much all the way up to this level at the 1377. And again, like I said before in the beginning of the video, once we see how price responds here, and you know, whether that's to the downside or if that's a break, then, you know, we're probably going for a nice ride um into the first gap here at $19 roughly. And then the other gap here at the top of it at $43.

[00:22:52]Now, that would be at least to the gaps, right? And there's even a chance that we could hit this 55 level over here. So, that's just showing you kind of what the rough progression may look like as we work our way up. All right, if we're not getting the meltup candle right through it all, okay, it's kind of the slow and steady look right now at the stock, but I think it's important to do that sometimes because then you kind of have all your angles covered. But I wanted to give you guys a little quick look at everything, you know, top to bottom today. And I hope that kind of made sense for you and now you can kind of see what we're up against going forward.

[00:23:27]And to be honest, it's not much, guys.

[00:23:29]like this little pocket of volume in here. If we can get out of this thing, I mean, these levels are pretty easy um to take. So, that is all I have for you guys today. We'll see what Monday brings as we head into June. If you guys want to drop a comment, leave it down below if you have any questions, anything that I did not cover, I'll be happy to do that. And if you're new, make sure to subscribe because I think, like I said before, we are doing a really good job mapping this thing out. And things look like they really are starting to turn around finally after 5 years of this thing. So everybody take care. I will see you in the next video. Thanks.