A LARGE Storm Is Rapidly Coming Together...

Ajouté : 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to Weather on the Go. All your weather coverage. My name is Hunter on this Tuesday, May 19th, 2026. Is the 139th day of the year and we definitely have some severe weather to talk about with damaging winds, large hail primarily, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out today and tomorrow. And a flash flooding risk that will be increasing through Memorial Day weekend and into late May.

[00:00:23]We'll look at your wind and temperature outlook as well as your long range forecast as we flip the calendar to June of 2026 as well. So stick with me and hopefully again everyone's having a wonderful Tuesday and wonderful week out there so far. Like this video if you do enjoy it at the detailed breakdowns we do on a daily basis across the United States, Southern Canada, and the tropics. Of course, you can share this video with friends, family on social media, and subscribe to the YouTube channel. It's free to do and we're on the road to 60,000 subscribers. You want to help me get there, make sure to subscribe to the channel. It's absolutely free. It doesn't cost anything and you get the latest weather coverage across North America. Without further ado, let's get into the forecast details for today. And let's look at the 3.4 index, which is in the area that we look for for El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific. And yesterday, Noah, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration actually um did designate this as a weak El Nino as it is at positive 0.8 right now and actually climbing closer towards that moderate El Nino status, especially I feel as we get into June of 2026. We can show you this here with the ocean temperatures. The equatorial Pacific really extends from over here towards um just north of Australia, south of Hawaii, and extending over here into the coast of South America and in the Central Americas. You can see that very area is primarily warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. We have two marine heat waves going on. One just east of Japan extending up there toward the Illutian Islands. And we have another one here into areas just off the west coast of Mexico and towards Hawaii.

[00:02:09]That is our PMM, the Pacific Meridiano mode. And that is primarily warm at this time. So what this is going to do is alter our jetream as we head through the rest of May and going into the summer months of June, July, and August. And that will kind of shape our weather pattern as we go through the rest of this summer. So let's look here at the short term. And we do have severe weather across portions of central Texas today, also the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes. If you're in the yellow, that's where scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible. The dark green is more of your isolated coverage of storms. So, not everybody will see storms today is basically what I'm saying. But if you do, there could be some large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. Especially the tornado threat is greatest up here into the eastern Great Lakes closer in proximity to that low pressure system.

[00:03:01]There is instability. Storm fuel is high out there, especially into the southern mode across central Texas. Instability over 3,000 jewels per kilogram this afternoon and evening. We do have some storm energy along and ahead of the cold front over here into Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and even extending up into southeast Michigan that needs to be watched for some severe weather going into the afternoon hours. So, let's walk you through the next few days, not just today. And you can see we are seeing some clustering showers and storms.

[00:03:29]These are already moving through North Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and a portions of central Arkansas. So, Little Rock, Tex Arcana, Dallas, Fort Worth already seeing some wet weather. As we go deeper into the afternoon, we're going to see that cluster start to shift further to the south. Central Texas, this is a lot of storm fuel down here.

[00:03:47]So, I would not be shocked to see some larger hail with these, some damaging winds, 60 70 mph variety, and even a brief tornado, especially where those individual storm cells are. Notice the coverage of storms up into the Ohio Valley is not very widespread, but they are scattered. So, there are going to be areas that see those severe weather reports coming in this evening. And then as we go into the overnight hours, that complex will continue to move southward into the Rio Grand and coastal Texas.

[00:04:14]So, it could be a noisy night from the Houston area down to Corpus Christi, perhaps getting down into Brownsville, Texas as that line of storms continues really through daybreak on Wednesday.

[00:04:26]Once we start the day on Wednesday, we're going to see some wet weather from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley to the southeast. Wednesday afternoon, we could see some thunderstorms roaming the landscape from West Virginia, Tennessee, all the way down into Mississippi and Alabama. Heavier rainfall will be possible with that. We also watch areas up into Montana and Wyoming, even eastern Idaho for potentially some rain and snow showers. Snow showers in the higher elevations. You can see the blue colors here. So, there's still some cold air aloft. And then going into the day on Thursday, more rain and wet weather for the Plains and down across the Gulf Coast states. And the same could be expected as we go into Friday as well.

[00:05:02]So if we look at the upcoming pattern for Memorial Day weekend, this is for Saturday, May 23rd through Monday, Memorial Day, May 25th, 2026.

[00:05:14]Split flow in the atmosphere. The blue is your low pressure. The orange is your high pressure. ly we see a low pressure up here into western Canada and Alaska.

[00:05:23]We also see lower pressure underneath across Texas and Mexico which is also the subtropical jet becoming more active as well. And then in between we have higher pressure in the Pacific Northwest and Rockies and then across the eastern seabboard and kind of a tongue of high pressure extending toward Hudson Bay in Canada. So what does that mean? Well, as we go into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, things are going to be pretty active over here with the subtropical jet coming in underneath of that across the Gulf Coast. And this could lead to some heavier rainfall in some spots for Saturday, for Sunday, and even going into Monday on Memorial Day. And it's going to be a persistent repeated pattern from Texas along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. So, we look at the rainfall just through 7 a.m. on Saturday, May 23rd. And you can see just this week, we are seeing quite a bit of rain from Lake Erie all the way back here into Texas and northern Mexico. In the yellow, that's an inch of rain. In the orange and red, that's 2 to 4 in generally of rainfall with a lot of moisture from the Ohio Valley down into the mids south, the deep south, and the Gulf Coast. And if we look at the rain we see just for that 3-day period for Memorial Day weekend. So Saturday May 23rd through Memorial Day Monday, May 25th, this is the rainfall output it is showing across Houston up here into Shreveport into the Little Rock area, Memphis, getting up towards Paduca and Louisville all the way over into Lexington. It's going to be a wet go of it for Memorial Day weekend. Could there be some dry time? Yes. I don't think it's a complete wash out, but I do feel there's going to be a lot more wet time than there is dry time. So, if we add it all together through just this week and Memorial Day weekend, we could see doubledigit rainfall totals over here into coastal and southeast Texas into Louisiana, perhaps even as far north as southern Arkansas. So, the flooding risk is going to be a little bit more elevated, especially down here into Texas and into portions of southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas, another area up into the Ohio Valley for today. And then going into tomorrow, it's west and central Texas. We got to watch for flash flooding potential. And that'll be the area we watch from Texas up into lower Missouri as we get into the Thursday, Friday time frame later this week. And that really even continues towards Memorial Day weekend. You can see these marginal risks for excessive rainfall.

[00:07:51]Very breezy day it will be here this afternoon into the Midwest. You got any baseball games you're attending, any track and field events you're attending, it's going to be very windy out there.

[00:08:00]So prepare for that. Although it will be feeling more like spring instead of summer as the cold front has come through. And then as we go into the afternoon on Wednesday, we're going to see breezy conditions from the Dakotas down into Colorado and New Mexico.

[00:08:13]Pretty windy as well up into the Northeast, especially for Maine and New Hampshire. Up into Quebec, pretty windy.

[00:08:19]As we go into Wednesday, winds could gust over 45 miles per hour in some localized areas. And then by Thursday, winds will still be strong across the Rockies, especially the higher elevations. And a breezier day for the north central United States as well with winds could gust over 30 miles hour in the Dakotas into Nebraska and Minnesota by Thursday afternoon. There's the cold front. You can see it playing as day ahead of it. There's the warm summerlike temperatures for the I95 corridor and mid-Atlantic northeast. the eastern seabboard to simply put and then areas along the Mississippi River and points west. That's where our below normal temperatures are and more spring even fallike air. As we get into the middle of this week, we're going to see the warmer air start to come back. We see that already by late this week into the Pacific Northwest. And then as we get into Memorial Day weekend, especially for Memorial Day itself, we're going to see those summerlike air begin to migrate eastward again into the upper Midwest and the cooler air across the southern tier of the country. And why is that? Well, that's because it's going to be cloud cover and precipitation holding those temperatures back further to the south. So, here the afternoon today, we got a lot of records here. Areas boxed out from Maine all the way back here into the Smoky Mountains of Tennessee and the Western Carolas. We are seeing records. These are mid 90s. There's the cold front. A cooler, more crisp day into Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas today into the 40s and 50s. Out west, California, Sacramento Valley, we're talking in the 90s. Same thing there in Phoenix at 91. And then as we go into Wednesday, we get more of those refreshing 60s back in the picture for much of the Midwest. Still records though from North Carolina and South Carolina all the way up to Maine along the coast on Wednesday with more 90s.

[00:10:00]And then we go from 90s to 60s and 70s by Thursday across the middle of the country. And you can see that we are going to be watching out for frost freeze risks. So if you are in the Dakotas, Nebraska, in parts of northwest Iowa, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, or the UP of Michigan, you might want to cover up any of the sensitive vegetation that you have planted in your gardens because that could be severely damaged by the frost and freeze conditions here Wednesday morning and even Thursday morning across Michigan. We got to keep an eye on that. Northeast Wisconsin, Appleton, uh, Green Bay, Shbboan, those areas could see some frost risks on a patchy scale going into Thursday morning. And then those overnight lows will get warm enough to where we don't have to worry about that going into the weekend itself. Looking at June, we are looking still warm and steamy across the West. More normal to below normal east of the Plains over here into areas especially east of the Mississippi River. And why is that? Well, it's going to be active. So, that's going to keep our temperature averages down for the 30-day average there through June. And looking here at the Pacific Northwest, I think we're going to be building our drought a lot stronger in June with a drier look. And that'll extend up into British Columbia. And then we see a little bit of some monsunal moisture getting fetched up from Mexico into areas of the four corners region, say Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado. How far west does this go? Is a very strong point right now. That is something I don't know. We'll have to look at trends as we get closer. But then the Northwest flow is definitely alive and prevalent here. And you can see that even better for the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes going through June. I think this pattern is really likely to set up the second half of June towards Father's Day weekend and then beyond. So that may lead to a little bit drier of a southern plains look. Still the Pacific Northwest dry, but there's the monsunal flow. We got to watch Florida could be a little wet there in this pattern, too.

[00:11:54]And this is a model showing maybe some tropical activity early on this season, homegrown in the Gulf. So, we got to keep an eye on that going into June. So, thank you for watching. Make sure to like this video. Give it a thumbs up.

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