Expected timing of Wednesday's storm impacts from Bertha around southeast Louisiana

[00:00:00]Now, your First Alert weather from Chief Meteorologist Bruce Katz.

[00:00:05]>> All right, the latest on both expecting in a few minutes the newest update at 10:00. The new track, the new suite, how strong it is, if it's weakened or likely not gain strength. Still some of the winds away from it at 35 to almost 40.

[00:00:18]Southeast now moving in from Mobile, even southwest Pass at times 35 to 40.

[00:00:24]Shell Beach up to 20 to 25 at times. So the winds will begin to pick up as well as just a few areas of rain. Now the worst of the rain likely staying south and we talked about that it's moving west at six. Winds are at 60 and again in a few minutes we'll get the newest update. But you'll notice all areas in blue. Those are tropical storm warnings.

[00:00:44]Now the timing looks to be late morning through about noon making landfall into central Plaqueans Parish. Then by 6:00 to 7 at night coming in tomorrow evening around Grand Isle moving south of Morgan City after midnight Thursday and then by Thursday and Friday this thing is basically out of here as each and every at least track does weaken it. Here's what we're looking at. We were looking yesterday what's going to move this thing. Is it going to move a little more north? Is it going to stay westward like the models were saying? We were waiting for this ridge of high pressure that was out west. Now it's shifted eastward and notice it's shifting southeast and it's picking up Bertha taking it westward right along the coastal areas and likely will continue that over the next 36 hours. Now some of the current wave heights coming in 10 to 12 ft when the storm was closer to this bury uh buoy rather I saw almost 15t waves. So definitely it's churning up the waters 4 foot way to the southwest and you'll notice that wave action will continue to move in and we are going to see some tidal surges coming in in areas around Bay St. Louis to the eastern facing shores. But this is our tropical storm warning map and it does now include Lake Ponchet Train all the southshore to the west bank all the way down to the Bayou Parishes on the coast and then southeast into St. Bernard Plaeman's over to Bay St. Louis also coastal flooding. We could see up to 2 to 4 feet above normal on the tides, maybe up to five in some instances. So here are your warnings coming in kind of in the magenta color.

[00:02:22]1 to 3 foot on Lake Patch Train. So again, maybe a little rise in the lake, but at this point, this is not a strong storm. As we take a look, heavier rains fortunately staying offshore, and I'll explain why in just a moment. But offshore, not that far from the coast, 5 to 10 in plus. On the coast, likely 3 to 5. Half an inch to an inch in the metro with a tropical storm on our doorstep.

[00:02:46]That is amazing. Rare to see all that wind and shear push all the rain south where it's not wrapping around. That would bring all the heavy rain over the metro. On the Northshore, even less could see only half an inch isolated to an inch. What about the windfield? It is weighted south and also east as it moves in time over Venice. We're looking at likely tomorrow morning, daybreak, winds beginning to pick up. Then we move in throughout parts of Grand Isle through midday into the evening hours. And then as it moves westward, it finally does begin to weaken south of Morgan City.

[00:03:22]Here's what we know with First Alert impacts. Gusty winds at 30 to 50. I'm going to go in your area in just a moment and let you know the timing.

[00:03:30]Coastal flooding up to 4 feet. flooding rains likely more coastal inland areas not as much and the severe threat low tornadoes I'm not going to say zero but on the low end with all the strongest activity staying well to the south that ridge of high pressure is doing us a favor taking all this wind shear taking it off to the west shearing it apart taking all the rain pushing it into the Gulf and actually a lot of dry air in place speaking of dry air all this area kind of in gold that is on the drier spectrum. Tropical systems, they love this deep green. They love the moisture.

[00:04:06]But when you bring in sheer, strong winds that doesn't allow it to grow on top of dry air that doesn't allow on the northern end where we would get the flooding rains to develop. This thing is in a perfect spot for a tropical storm making landfall in southeast Louisiana.

[00:04:24]Now, here's the issue. Spotty showers around. The only way we may get one or two little areas of flooding if we get these streamers or squalls as they come in if we get rain over the same area that could be an issue. But for right now, these are kind of moving south west of Cook and Homa. Another area on the Northshore earlier, but now it is mostly dry as you can see. Not much happening there. Here's your forecast model showing the storm moving by 7 a.m. about to make landfall around 11 to noon coming into Plaean's Parish. But notice the rain not here. It's all down to the south, moving westward and continuing that way in time. So, what about the winds? Here's what we can expect on the coastal areas from 9 tomorrow morning through 11:00 p.m. 45 to 55. Rainfall 3 to 5 on the coast. So, on the coastal areas, 9 to 11. Now in the metro for New Orleans, West Bank, Belchase, wind gust of 30 to 40, half an inch to an inch.

[00:05:24]Low risk of severe weather. So 10 tomorrow morning through 10 tomorrow night. Here in the metro, we're going to be feeling it. In the River Parish and Bayou Parish area, wind gust up to 35 to 45 from noon to 10. Rainfall 1 to two and on the Northshore, 25 to 30. Not a lot of rain. low risk of severe weather 10:00 to 1000 p.m. And then finally on the Gulf Coast, we are looking at those areas 5:00 a.m. That's going to start tomorrow morning earlier as a storm moves in as we see 2 to 4 foot surges.

[00:05:56]On top of that, rainfall at about 2 to 4 feet. Here's what we're looking at for the 7-day forecast. Put out a first alert for Wednesday into early Thursday.

[00:06:04]Rain chances go down, the temps go up.

[00:06:06]So, next 24 hours, guys, will tell the tale of this storm. The good news, not going to be a major flood threat. Tidal surge could be somewhat of a minor to moderate issue, but I really think we're going to farewell.

[00:06:18]>> So, um, for those, you know, basically from metro out south, right, this thing looks to be over by in terms of the serious impacts by midnight.

[00:06:28]>> Yeah, 10 to midnight tomorrow night. It moves off to the west. Still some breezy, maybe a few little, you know, wraparound showers, but you know, at this point, uh, I think really from dayb breakak east to midnight west, that's going to be your time frame for some gusty winds. Could see a few power outages, but uh, for a storm, a tropical storm, winds of 60 moving inland in southeast Louisiana with no flood threat. It's a rare thing and I'm happy to happy to be the messenger.

[00:06:53]>> Interesting shaped system actually when you look at it, all that rain kind of down there.

[00:06:57]>> Thank you, Shear. Thank you, Dry Air.

[00:06:59]The timing is everything.