Severe weather warnings indicate imminent threats of damaging winds (60+ mph), heavy rainfall, and potential tornadoes, while watches signal conditions favorable for severe storms to develop; storms typically move northeast at 40 mph, and understanding these patterns helps residents take appropriate precautions like seeking shelter when warnings are issued and avoiding travel during severe weather events.
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The Digital Weather Desk: LIVE (Saturday, 5/23/2026)Added:
Hey folks, good morning. Jared Floyd here with the digital weather desk powered by Century Next Bank. Uh just wanted to bring a live update uh to what's going on across many of our southern parishes across the Arklamus this morning uh as we move toward the midday time frame. We've been watching um multiple areas of thunderstorms and we'll kind of take a tour of the region and and I'm not joining you specifically for any one storm. They're all pretty disruptive as they start to make their way uh into our southern parishes across portions of Win and Grant Parishes. Uh a lot of these folks have probably already received the severe thunderstorm warnings on their phones. And then we also have the severe thunderstorm watch that's been issued for a good chunk of the area uh through the rest of the uh afternoon and evening hours. Um again that watch includes the vast majority of the arklamus mainly for the possibility of uh of damaging wind gusts. Uh some small hail can't be completely ruled out as all of this activity continues uh to progress north and eastward. kind of part of this large mezzlecale what we call it's at the base of this vortex this measlescale convective vortex MCV creating this complex of thunderstorms that continues to feed off to the north and east. That's severe thunderstorm watch by the way to finish the thought goes until 6:00 p.m. tonight. So, as you take a look at the Browns roofing radar, you can see that there are numerous severe thunderstorm warnings out. I'll pause things for just a second so we can uh address all of these warnings. The newest severe thunderstorm warning is out for parts of Benville Parish uh and Wind Parish. It also includes um Nacadish and Grant Parishes. Uh this is for 60 mph wind gust potential and small hail, probably non severe hail as these storms move off to the northeast at about 40 milesPH. Um the same general thought process continues farther southeastward um for for the storm the bulk of the storm that's making its way into Win Lasal and Grant Parishes. Uh but that storm also has the possibility of up to 70 mph wind gust. That's a a stronger segment of this storm and it also may even produce a brief tornado.
It's not out of the realm of possibilities for that to happen. Again, those storms also moving off to the northeast at about 40 mph.
So, as a lot of folks look at um uh what's unfolding across the region, and we'll get to the severe thunderstorm watch uh in just a second. Um but just with the the note of the fact that these storms are moving northeast at 40 mph just to give you kind of a brief bird's eye view of some of the areas that could be impacted uh down the line.
These are some approximate arrival times uh for these storms as they move off to the north and east. Uh again, Winfield shortly before 11:30, Gina probably closer to 11:40. Uh the Georgetown and Dodson areas uh probably around 11:30 and then you start talking about Jonesboro Hodgej um a little before noon. if these storms were to continue on their general trajectory and at their general pace. Um I know that the immediate question then turns for folks even farther downstream from that and and the questions go, you know, what about this area? What about that area?
Again, if you're under a severe the severe thunderstorm watch, then there will be the possibility of of of all of this impacting you at some point as we go through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Obviously, this is a a little bit of an increase in the severe weather hazards for today. Um, but if you've been following the forecast, we've been talking about it at length for most of the week that at any point some rogue strong to severe thunderstorms will be a possibility. We really didn't expect much of an organized severe threat on any given day. that's changed today just simply because of uh the moisture- richch environment and and some of the smaller messoscale features that are really difficult to forecast and how those have unfolded as we've worked through um the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Uh so these will be some wind producers um maybe some small hail and then the potential for some periods of heavy rain. Reminder of the flood watch that's in place uh for our southern parishes and counties until 700 p.m. That's not new. Um, that watch has been out for a while now. Here's a look at the severe thunderstorm watch. This is new, uh, relatively. Uh, most folks received the alerts for all that stuff a little bit earlier this morning. Uh, and so for folks that are asking about specific areas, Jonathan's asking about Jackson Parish. Steve's asking about Waw Parish.
all all of you folks in the yellow um against pretty much the entire Arklamus region with the exception of uh Clayurn Parish, Columbia County, Union County, Wash, Bradley, Calhoun, Drew counties.
Uh everybody else is under this severe thunderstorm watch until 6. Heather asks, should travel be postponed? That's a tricky question and I and I I I really I dodge those questions as much as possible and here's why. Everybody's has different abilities of driving abilities. Some people are terrible drivers when it's even even when it's dry outside. And I'm not saying you're one of them. I'm just saying that's why it's tough for me to answer those questions. Um but depending on where you're headed, if you're headed say to Alexandria right now from Rustin, I'd wait. I'd wait for these storms to move through. Um, so yeah, depending on where you're headed, um, depending on how necessary that travel is, if it's just leisurely travel, I would wait. Um, if it's absolutely absolutely necessary, I I mean, obviously, I'd be prepared to to stop at times because this rain will be extremely heavy. And now we start also factoring in the flash flood potential that will evolve. You can see numerous flash flood warnings across eastern Texas and western Louisiana as these storms move through. It's kind of a cause and effect kind of relationship.
We're going to bring these types of heavy thunderstorms through some relatively rain soaked areas and it's going to be a problem. So this is a look at the Fort Pulk Fort Johnson radar and still watching you know these areas as they move off to the north and east.
I do also I don't and I promised that we would take a little bit of a radar tour.
We also still have plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity generally non severe making its way across portions of southern Arkansas. Camden stretching to just to the northwest of El Dredo. Uh probably getting some some thunder. Um in fact I can turn the lightning on but it gets kind of cluttered sometimes when we have all this stuff. Heather says Jonesboro to Calhoun. Um you could travel now. Um, but I w I would not I I I I wouldn't doawle.
I I' I'd get to moving. Um, because again, uh, you've got showers and storms that are going to arrive pretty quickly.
And in fact, a lot of it's pretty rapidly developing. And again, if it's if travel can be avoided at this point in many parts of the Arkamus, I would suggest you do so, especially considering I say that, Heather, as you look at as I look at what's developing now um in and around Rustin and southward. If you can wait, I'd wait because we're starting now see a lot of storms starting to fill in um all the way kind of down to the state line and along the I20 corridor where we've had some gaps in the rain. Periods of heavy rain will lead to some localized street flooding and flash flooding concerns.
That's going to probably be our most widespread prolonged hazard because we're not done with the rain once we get uh through the daytime hours today.
Danielle says she hears the thunder and equipment.
So again, a lot of these areas are downstream from the existing uh thunderstorms that are unfolding. And I'm starting to see a lot of um comments on my Facebook page. So, let me go ahead and if we're going to be live for a few minutes, let's go ahead and pin this to the top so folks can find it. There's going to be additional warnings probably coming out here soon. And I just want to make sure that we're getting there. Um, Brenda says, "Gina to Monroe at 2:30."
Uh, yeah, Gina's just on the outer fringes of the severe thunderstorm warnings that are in place. Um, I again for a lot of areas along and south of I20, I would avoid the travel at this point.
Uh, 53 mph wind gusts at the Alexandria airport with these storms as they've made their way through. So again, they are packing a punch across the region.
And on that note, a reminder that if you are looking for more um if you're looking for more central Louisiana weather, Alexandria, Leville, Marksville in a lot of these surrounding or in our southern parishes, Dry Prong, Gina, uh Katahul Concordia parishes in a lot of these areas as well. Um make sure that you are following Nick Mikulus uh with Sin-Law weather. Uh he is a great weather follow. If you are hearing voices in the background, that is the wife and the daughter that are getting ready for lunch. Um, Chandler asks, "What about the Lake Bruin area under the severe thunderstorm watch until 6?" Obviously farther downstream, it may be a little bit later, but obviously we're also starting to see a lot of storm development out ahead of the storms as they start to make their way into our southern parishes. And just a reminder, too, um, Carrie asks in Boer, yeah, I think you may get some rainfall, but most of this is going to probably bypass you. Most of this you kind of you kind of split the gap between all the thunderstorm developments. So, you're going to get some rain. Um, but but I I really think that a lot of this is going to miss um in those areas. Jonathan does ask a very viable question. Are there any is there any rotation being noted with these storms? And we've been watching just to the southwest of Winfield.
I say we've been watching um in the entire time that that we've been live here, I haven't really made mention of it, but we are continuing to just watch um a a general concentrated area of stronger winds and also perhaps an opportunity for one of these little bookend vortex tornadoes or a brief little um spin-up tornado.
brief meaning quick forming, but that does not necessarily mean that it that that does not imply strength.
And so you continue to watch these areas and and I'm I'm going to bounce back and forth between a lot of different radar modes. But for instance, this area just to the northwest of Nacadish, I believe that'd be near the Clarence area because that's that turnoff right before you head to Nacadish.
Sure enough. Yeah. So, those are spots that we'll watch because a lot of folks are asking what the tornado threat is today. And the tornado threat was was expected to be fairly low and but because the shear is so weak in the environment, but we have a very moisture- richch almost tropical environment. So, when you get these small little spinning features in the atmosphere, whether it be an MCV or a little weak surface low or something like that, it helps to maximize wind shear locally.
um in a very isolated form. So I again I can't imagine that the tornado threat will be exceedingly high but it won't be zero. So a lot of folks asking about tornado potential tornado potential is low but not zero for for the rest of the day. If the tornado threat and and and I I'll break it to you break it down to you as simple as this. If the tornado threat were were considerably higher, we would be under a tornado watch instead of a severe thunderstorm watch right now. So, I hope that kind of brings the perspective in.
The tornado threat is low, but it's not zero. And I just told my wife the exact same thing because she was kind of asking the same general questions before we started this live stream.
The tornado threat is low, but not zero.
Michelle asks, "We have graduation at tech 2:00. We have to travel from Westaw."
Um, obviously I'm not telling you to not attend graduation. That's a big event.
Um, but conditions will probably get worse before they get better as you continue westward. So, if you can maybe head out early and give yourself a little extra time to get where you're going, uh, not a bad idea. And I would assume that I'm not familiar with with um all the graduation schedules, but obviously with you saying that that that means that tech is having ceremonies today and we're just trying to keep track of all of this um on the social aspect of things as folks want move out and about across the Arkham uh through this Memorial Day weekend.
So again to answer and to kind of finalize the thought about tornadoes, if the tornado threat was exceedingly high, they would we would have the Storm Prediction Center would have issued a tornado watch. It's low but not zero.
The main concern is damaging wind gusts, lightning, lightning is not a severe thunderstorm hazard. Hail and wind and tornadoes are severe weather hazards uh and and very heavy rainfall. But in terms of the severe weather hazards, wind, small hail.
Um, Cat asks about West Monroe 1 to3. Uh, Ashley asks, "Softball tournament in Monroe today.
Any chance of the weather moving out soon?" Uh, Don is going to Walmart and West Monroe. She needs to know what's going on. We've got storms moving in and I would expect them to start impacting Parish as early as the next hour, probably a little later than that. But you also see these storms that are developing out ahead of the main complex of activity that's moving through. Um, so what I mean by that is is is I freeze the radar screen at just the most recent stuff that we're watching. there's all this early stuff that's starting to develop out ahead of the main line.
And so that's something worth noting for folks that are traveling immediately here in the short term. Um just just if you're going to travel, you got to be extra cautious. And again, for those that are joining us for severe weather coverage for the first time, I am surrounded by television screen or for by computer monitors and screens.
So, if you see me looking in 85 different directions, there's a lot of different information streams that are kind of being thrown at me at one time from here. And we're just trying to keep you as updated as possible, and I don't want to miss anything. So, so again, I'm also we're watching the storms together, for lack of a better term. Um, so when I switch radar modes, it's not because I'm trying to show off fancy technology. is just because I'm I'm using the tools that are at our disposal to see what we can see.
But we appreciate you joining us. Um for those that are just finding us and kind of wondering what this is all about, this is the digital weather desk powered by Century Next Bank. I'm Jared Floyd.
I'm a meteorologist in uh based out of Monroe, Louisiana who's worked in um this area for almost for over 20 years now. And this is a digital weather platform that provides daily weather forecast information, uh, a free app and also live stream severe weather information when needed when, um, this stuff starts to unfold. So, as we watch these storms continue to make their way northeastward and we recap for those that are hopping on, uh, severe thunderstorm warnings are in place. Wind, Benville, and I believe parts of Grant Parish until 11:45.
Another part of Win, Grant, and Lal Parish is also until 11:45. Again, the leading edge of these storms moving off to the northeast at about 40 miles hour.
Uh in terms of possible arrival times downstream of these storms, we're looking at again Winfield around 11:30, Gina a little about a little before 11:40, Alla about 11:45, Jonesboro Haj a little before noon. Again, if you're looking at these from where we joined you earlier, forward motion of these storms, they speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down. So, as they eb and flow with their forward motion, obviously arrival times are very, very approximate. If you're under a warning, we want you sheltered. What does that mean for a severe thunderstorm warning?
Well, for in in many instances, if you're sheltering for a tornado warning, then you're sheltered for a severe thunderstorm warning, too. Now, we don't necessarily have to go to as many extreme precautions for many severe thunderstorm warnings. They're usually cautioning us against up to quarter size hail or larger. Uh but in this instances in this instance solely in many cases it's 60 mph winds or stronger actually technically 58 mph winds. Um parts of these warnings are warning for the possibility of up to 70 mph winds. Janet asks it's dark here in El Dredo. Are we supposed to have a tornado? No. Um you're not. But you do have some thunderstorms moving through and and and they are not severe. That's why in full disclosure that's why we haven't spent as much time on them. But we do have some pretty mean thunderstorms starting to make their way through southern Arkansas and and and they've already passed through the Camden area. Um non severe by definition. Again, what what does what does severe mean? 58 mph winds are stronger, quarterized hail or larger. And the and or or andor a tornado. U those are all severe weather hazards. These storms are still capable of producing maybe 40 mph winds. I would think maybe some nickel-sized hail, possibly larger than that, but probably up to nickel sized and lightning, heavy rainfall. So, if you have outdoor plans and and we have we have preached the possibility of of heavy rain driving things indoors at times through the the the holiday weekend. And I know that things, you know, you can't just cancel on on account of the weather forecast. A lot of folks did.
Kay asks, "Do you think Parish will get 75 mph winds?" I I mean, again, as we look at these storms, okay, and and we warn about the possibility of up to 60 mph wind gusts.
I want to also caution folks that does not mean that a wall of 70 mph winds or a wall of 60 mph winds is moving through the Arkamus. It's not like hurricane force winds where they're super concentrated. We're talking about the highest stormdriven gusts within these areas could reach 60 m an hour. You're probably going to run into some pretty routine 40 mph wind gusts. The strongest ones could get to 60, maybe 70 m an hour embedded within these segments of storms as they move off to the northeast. And I think that's really really really important for us to remember. and and and if you've followed our severe weather coverage for for any kind of extended period of time, Dana says she's traveling to Shrefport. Will it be bad there? No. Uh most of Shreport will that it's raining there and you're probably going to run into some rain. Now getting there may not be a festival. Um but but once you get there, the travel conditions are that should be fine. Most of the the bigger problems are uh farther down I49 are now actually east of I 49. uh kind of sandwich in that pie slice between I49 and I20. A lot of our southern parishes uh dealing with the biggest headaches. But but if you followed our severe weather coverage for extended periods of time, you know, I've I've I preach about this a lot too. Uh and not it's not my intent that a lot of us have lived through dozens if not hundreds of severe thunderstorm warnings in our lifetime and never experienced a true severe thunderstorm um the 60 mph wind. So when we do get them, it can be kind of alarming and unnerving. Uh Amanda asks, "What time should we expect the weather in Wash Parish?" Uh I as early as noon. Um again, we've got some of that early development out over northern Jackson Parish and through portions of Lincoln Parish. That's like just some scattered development out ahead of the main cluster of storms. In terms of the line itself, it's probably going to be closer to 1:00, maybe a little bit later. These storms are moving to the northeast at 40 miles hour. So, if we wanted to play that game, and we will. Um, and we look at the possible arrival times. Does that button not work? Oh, I got to hit play. My apologies, folks.
Sometimes you kind of get the um brain freeze when you're doing things.
Oh my goodness, Jared.
Give me a second, folks.
So, again, just looking at the possible arrival times. 108 is what's indicated here.
Let me make sure that that is I'm going to do that on a different measuring tool. Me two seconds even though it's been 30.
Yeah. I mean, we're we're looking at, you know, southwestern Waw Parish right around lunchtime. Central sections of Waw Parish, uh, quarter to one, somewhere in that ballpark, hour and a half, generally speaking, uh, in the grand scheme of things. All right, so we'll put the radar back into motion real quick.
And a lot of folks are asking about um Linda's asking about um or Linda says with the storms that came through Morehouse overnight, will it help with the weather that's coming through today?
That is a very viable question. And and and for those that kind of don't get what she's what she's getting at. I I think I know what she's getting at is basically with all the rain and the thunderstorms, we've kind of rung out all the moisture in the atmosphere.
We've overturned the environment. Would that help limit these storms as they move through?
Usually the answer would be yes. The downside to this is in this instance probably not because of just how much moisture and how water loaded our environment, how almost tropical in nature our atmosphere is. So from even from the storms that we dealt with several hours ago, the environment is already essentially recovered from that and is just ready to bring more widespread rain back into the region.
Uh Erica, hopefully we answered your question when you just asked that. When do we think this will be out of the area? We have kids traveling from Washington DC back home to West Monroe.
Um this particular area of thunderstorms is going to take a couple of more hours to get out of the I20 corridor that kind of the travel spots of northern Louisiana.
Um, I would think it's going to be at least three or four o'clock. And again, the severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for a good chunk of our area till 6. So, the severe threat to some degree for some of our area, probably the northeastern parts of our area will go until well into the evening hours.
Again, the flood watch that's in place for the southern parishes. Here's a look at that severe thunderstorm watch. Steve says, "Would this be a good weekend to drive to North Alabama?" Um, not really. At least not getting out of our area. It wouldn't be fun. Um, and then obviously the storm threat's going to spread eastward tonight and it's really unsettled across much of the southern and southeastern United States this this this entire holiday weekend.
Sharon, to answer your question about West Carol Parish, hopefully this answers it for you. Uh, West Carol Parish under the severe thunderstorm watch until 6. So again, we expect this general cluster of storms to continue to move northeastward into your area later this evening. Now, what condition, what strength these storms will be at by the time they get there.
Can't say with a lot of certainty. They may not necessarily be severe by definition. But the other problem with a lot of this, and and this is the the thing that we kind of uh continue to kind of jump up and down about for most of our region, the periods of heavy rainfall. If you if you didn't follow along overnight, um a good chunk of Morehouse Parish into Richland Parish from Delh High to Marouge saw two, three, four, five inches of rain locally during the overnight. Those folks don't need any more water. Unfortunately, more water's on the way.
Janet says there's an outside wedding scheduled for 4:30 this afternoon in the Milo area.
Going to be close.
I'm not encouraged. If I can give any encouragement to the married couple or the the the the couple that's getting married today, it rained on my wedding day and we're doing great.
At least from my point of view. Um Janice says, and I would assume from hers as well. I just don't want to speak for her. Uh Janice says, "We have new standard for lightning. My son's lights in his room flashed blue during a particularly bright episode of lightning. They are not colorchanging lights." Yeah, I um a lot of the lightning was quite vibrant for a lot of the areas um through the overnight hours and through the morning hours this morning. Carmen asks about Sunday. Um that's going to be tricky. I really think that up until today, I think that our most widespread rain potential was really set up for Sunday. But with the rain and the thunderstorms that are going to barrel through the area over the next few hours, there is a chance that, pardon the expression, but we kind of step on the sponge and we ring out enough water that that Sunday we may it may take a little bit to recover the environment to generate more rain. I don't think we're done with the rain anytime soon. And for folks that are looking for specifics on the forecast through the next seven days, the forecast is available at digitalweatherest.com and on the app day by day, hourby hour, however you need it. Links to download the app or at digitalweather.com. It's 100% free.
Works anywhere in the country. Fastest severe weather alerts you can get in this area.
So, as we watch these storms moving northeast, just a reminder that the periods of heavy rain and and and and are not done here. The good news is we it for a lot of the area, I'm speaking in general terms here, we've spread out a lot of this rain over an extended period of time to the point that we're we're readily able to kind of soak it in somewhat efficiently. So that's that's some bit of good news. The downside to it is we're going to get the rain today um over some areas that quite rain soaked from overnight and that's going to again create its own issues and its own concerns. So these storms will continue to move northeast about 40 miles hour. Um we're going to wrap up the live stream here shortly. But before we go, just a full recap for those that are just joining in. And of course, this video will be um there and available for folks that need to see it after the fact. And we're also going to just kind of do a recap for all the folks in um Adams County and Katahula and Concordia parishes and Jefferson County and Franklin and Tensaw parishes that are under the new severe thunderstorm warning. That severe thunderstorm warning now goes out until 12:15 for the Mississippi Delta region essentially uh for small hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Again, these wind gusts are up to 60 mph. Um pennysized hail moving northeast now at 50 miles hour. So, a lot of folks probably getting the alerts on their phone there.
Sandre says just don't make any outside activities for the next seven days.
Again, that's that's kind of what we've been or at least don't make any plans with any kind of confidence. Um so again to recap before we wrap up um midday because again we will probably be joining you off and on through the course of the day and um I say that we're about to have another severe thunderstorm warning coming out for Jackson and Caldwell parishes too.
So, I have a feeling I will be taking my lunch here at the desk and that's okay.
Okay, so awaiting the latest information and again for those that are joining us for the f first time here, there is some downtime.
This is not traditional broadcast severe weather coverage. There are times where I will sit and look at my phone for extended seconds, minutes at a time in absolute silence, either sending messages to associates at the National Weather Service, texting my wife in the other room, um texting folks across town for for reports, uh you know, wind and rain reports and all those types of things. And as I mentioned, there's a bunch of different computer monitors and screens providing all different sorts of information. Speaking of, let's hop over while these uh this activity continues to loop on screen and I'll actually show the severe thunderstorm warning, the newest severe thunderstorm warning that's out.
Let's hop over and take a look at um the Louisiana Mezanet, which is operated by the University of Louisiana Monroe, and check out some of the rain totals for the day so far. These are just for today. KFax is at 4600s of an inch of rain.
Plain dealing approaching a quarter of an inch. Gina 4 hundredths of an inch of rain. Natchez, Louisiana is approaching an inch of rain. Jonesboro a little over a tenth of an inch of rain. Manny's already at an inch and a quarter. Again, Marge at two and a half, a little over two and a half. That was all from much much earlier today during the morning hours.
That's pretty much where we sit for the time being.
Newest severe thunderstorm warning now out for a large chunk of Jackson, Caldwell, and Lal parishes. So again, there's going to be a a large contingency that um gets that newest um severe weather alert on their phone.
Again, this is for subsevere hail. This this warning is for winds, not hail. uh severe thunderstorm capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts, maybe up to the occasional dime to penny sized hail as these storms move again northeast at 40 miles hour.
So, let's pause for a second and we'll do our little arrival times and as as we continue to estimate these storms arrival and impact along the I20 corridor and along the Mississippi Valley over the next couple of hours. Again, 40 miles an hour puts us in these types of arrival times.
Chadam at a little afternoon. Colombia, same story.
Farad and Ridgerest and a lot of those areas out over portions of Concordia Parish, we're talking quarter to noon, quarter afternoon, Clayton, and folks along the Mississippi Valley, probably closer to 12:30. Uh but in the short term, in the next hour, uh you're talking Dodson, Gina, Alla, Harrisonenberg, Grayson, all all the areas that that just received the newest severe thunderstorm warning as all of this activity moves off to the north and east.
For those that are just hopping on from assorted areas across the Arlamus, first off, thank you for joining us and welcome. This is the digital weather desk powered by Century Nextbank. Uh here's a look at the flood watch that is in place and the flash flood warnings that are also issued out over uh portions of western Louisiana and the severe weather watches and warnings that are in place. The warnings in orange, uh the watch in yellow.
So again, for those that are looking at this and seeing the watch that's in place. If you're in the watch, you have a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later today. I think this is a very well curated severe thunderstorm watch. And I not that they are needing my compliments on how they issued these watches, but in terms of the downstream impacts and who could probably see severe potential today when you start looking downstream of this this, you know, glob of thunderstorms here. And as it extends out through this region and perhaps spreads a little bit more in this kind of general direction and kind of sprawls out across the Arklamus, I think the best threats for for the best potential for damaging wind gusts will probably remain on this kind of leading edge where we're seeing the strongest surges of winds.
But the bigger takeaway from all of this for our entire area is not necessarily the severe weather hazards. And I know that sounds silly because we're we we've got these huge severe thunderstorm warnings headed our our way, but I also again cannot dismiss the fact that we've got a lot of rainfall.
I was really hopeful that these storms were going to move into a thermodynamic or that they would that they would hit that thermodynamic wall through the overnight hours and just kind of go poof as we get our first rumble of thunder here in Midtown Monroe.
There are a lot of folks that really can't afford the the rainfall at this point. We've gone from drought to now excessive rain in some locations.
Again, grand scheme, big picture, all good news to get this kind these kinds of rain totals trending back into the region.
But to to get them to this degree in this magnitude in such a short period of time, that's where it becomes problematic.
Yep. A lot of folks hearing those first rumbles of thunder in portions of Parish. Again, a reminder that the hail threat, as my friend Megan from the United Way just says, "Oh, hail." Um, I think the hail threat's pretty low. If you have a carport, I'd use it. Um, I wouldn't be surprised to get maybe some dimesized hail at times, maybe up to to to penny non severe hail generally for most of the region.
And also a reminder, if these storms and this severe weather in any way impacts you and you don't know where to turn, that our friends at the United Way of Northeast Louisiana and the 211 initiative are standing by 24/7, 365, ready to help. 211 is always an anonymous call. you make it and they will connect you uh to resources direct directly to local resources uh in our area.
Again, as you kind of look at the the the grand scheme of things, this is a fairly favorable environment for um for damaging wind potential. And we also have a a fairly decent kind of pronounced swirl in the atmosphere.
That was loud.
um associated with this MCV, this measor scale convective vortex, which is really what's fueling a lot of the the the the activity today.
That's providing that spin and lift at the localized kind of what we call meoscale level, but at the smaller scale level, and then it's just feeding off the very warm, humid, and now increasingly unstable air. Things got thunder at Lakeshore near the airport.
Donna says, "Tunder out by the bowling alley. It's getting loud out here, too."
So, so I'll turn the lightning back on.
Uh, and the lightning counter. 548 strikes over the last 15 minutes in the map screen here. So, not not egregiously high lightning numbers, but we got storms obviously popping up. The rain just started here. And I'm going to switch over uh for folks that are that are wandering along I20. Um here's a look at the Shreveport radar which I think gives us a little bit better perspective of of some of these early rounds of showers and storms that are developing along I20 ahead of the larger more widespread line of thunderstorms that's making its way off to the northeast. Megan says nasty sounding out in the parish out uh past the West Monroe city limits. Uh I'm going to switch over.
Actually, we can go this way as the rain has arrived here in Midtown.
And again, when it arrives, it arrives quickly and heavy.
Switch radar screens for just a second.
Um, I know it looks the same, but it was actually I went from one screen to another.
Here's a look at some of our outages by percentage across the region.
again.
Sorry, I think it's hailing.
Oh, never mind. Um, power outages are fairly sporadic across the region for the time being. Nothing exceedingly high, but we'll continue to monitor those as these storms continue to move through.
Again, a reminder, this does not mean that a wall of 60 mph winds are coming through. It just means that the strongest parts of these storms will be capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts.
You guys see that the the vortex, that swirl in the environment. If you when you when we loop the radar over the last hour, you can really see it in this area right here.
kind of really curling up there.
And so that's why we're also starting to see a little bit more of a a northerly component to a lot of the rain and the storms across parts of Wind Parish while all the other activity is moving off to the north and east.
Man, the rain is coming down.
Zachary says, "Rain and thunder here off Park Avenue." Uh, Lisa says, "It's getting black out here in my neighborhood off Foresight." Yeah, all the spots in Midtown. It's um the rain arrived quickly. And again, this is all non severe thunderstorms across central sections of Parish and all those areas.
Non severe stuff for the time being.
you are downstream from some stuff that will likely be severe at some point. So, as you take a look at um how I20 is fairing right now, again, you wouldn't think anything's really going on, but as you get um north of the interstate, there's plenty going on.
So for those that are again just joining us, our newest severe thunderstorm warnings 12:30 for parts of Jackson, Caldwell, Winn, and Lal parishes. 12:15 for Franklin, Tensaw, Katahula, Concordia parishes, but also uh for Adams County and Jefferson County and adjacent sections of Mississippi, adj adjacent sections of Clayurn County and Warren County, Tensaw Parish, Madison Parish, the rest of Franklin Parish, really all downstream along the I20 corridor. You folks need to pay attention to to what we're dealing with as we go through the next several hours.
Again, a flood watch is in effect for the southern parishes in the Arklamus, but we're probably going to see at least some localized sporadic issues and flooding concerns and things of that nature as we go through the remainder of the afternoon. And then of course also the severe thunderstorm watch that's in place uh goes until 6 p.m. mainly for damaging wind potential. Some small hail can't be ruled out. The tornado threat is low, but it is not entirely zero.
All of our severe weather risks to a certain degree have increased to a certain degree. Some of them have increased a good bit. Some of them have increased just a little bit.
Periods of heavy rain again remain our biggest concern. Chassity says, "I'm in Calvin west of Windfield. Wind is blowing pretty hard and lights have flashed about five times. Appreciate the report." Of course, we always appreciate your reports and in the comment section.
You can always just say, "Hey, this is what's going on at our house um or where I'm located." And and again, we always ask a few things. One, never go outside or put yourself in harm's way to send us a report. B, try to be as specific as you feel comfortable being. Uh if you don't feel comfortable giving us your your street or your neighborhood or whatever, just tell us your city or your parish or just a general location.
Again, be as specific as you feel comfortable being. And then also uh try to give as many details as possible. If it's hail, give us a size and in reference. If you can send a picture in, cool. You can also upload pictures at digital weather at the on the digital weather app. Um and pictures are always helpful. Uh you can always send uh pictures in in the messages uh like a Facebook messenger or something like that or a direct message. Uh and we're always looking at those.
There's always any way that you can relay information to us. We are open to receiving it.
Quick check of I20 again. I was going to see if the rains arrived there yet. No, I 20 is moving smoothly. Hunky dory.
Got quite a bit of rain north of the interstate though. And as you move west down the interstate toward Rustin, it's a different story.
And so that's where um that's how the storms are sitting right now. And I zoom out a little bit so you can see again how they are overspreading a good chunk of the archamus.
Be prepared for periods of heavy rain.
And and again for our neighbors uh across southern Arkansas, I don't want you folks to think that I'm forgetting about you, but your activity is generally considered non severe. I'm going to go all the way up to the Little Rock radar just so we get a better perspective of um what's moving through portions of Calhoun County.
Again, generally considered non severe.
Uh but some storms moving right along Highway 167 from El Dredo to Hampton.
Exercise caution in these areas if you can delay travel or just, you know, for half hour or so, maybe an hour, but wait for these storms to move off to the east. If you hear a high-pitched squeal in the background, I swear she's totally fine. She's just really, really excited and it's almost nap time.
For what it's worth, the um Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded a good chunk of the Arklamus region into a slight risk for severe weather. So, we've gone from no severe weather outlook to a marginal risk, now up to a slight risk of severe weather as this um this complex of storms continues to unfold.
U again fueled by what we call an MCV a meoscale convective vortex.
Basically a smallcale spinner in the atmosphere that helps to to provide spin and lift in the atmosphere maximizes the wind shear and all those types of things and it provides some some potential for damaging wind gusts. Millie says just got this uh the severe thunderstorm warning alert in Natches again till 12:15. So again, you can see the storms, and I'm sorry, I kind of lost focus there for a second. Again, a lot of stuff going on at one time. You can see the storms unfolding along Highway 167 across southern Arkansas. Again, travel probably not fun from El Dredo to Hampton over the next hour. If you could delay, I would suggest you do so. It is not severe, although it is some strong disruptive activity along I20. Rain, thunderstorms now stretching from Rustin to northern sections Midtown Monroe northward up toward North Monroe and and up toward the Frenchman's Bend area. A lot of this activity will continue to drift northward, but there's also more widespread e activity and and this is our organized severe thunderstorms that are making their way through portions of north central Louisiana stretching generally now from northern sections of Nacades Parish back to the east and then eventually the southeast all the way to just shy or just to the southwest of Jonesville and uh into central and southeastern sections of Concordia Parish. All of this is generally moving to the northeast between 40 and 50 miles per hour relatively quickly capable of producing some 60 maybe 70 mph wind gusts although I would think more 60 mph wind gusts would be the bigger concern and again those won't be continuous walls of wind gusts just the strongest parts of these storms could occasionally produce them as they also fuel some very heavy rainfall moving northeast through the area and on that note let's pause for for a second and we're going to go to some radar tools that we have at our disposal that I don't have on my little windshield.
So, as we look at um rainfall rate, obviously the rate of rainfall in any given area is constantly changing.
But some of these rain rates that are moving through on the leading edge of these storms, you're talking about producing it. It's 7 1/2 in of rain an hour. Now, that does not mean that we're going to get 7 1/2 in of rain in Gina in the next hour. It means that these storm driven extreme downpours on the leading edge of the storms that are producing the heaviest rainfall, if it were to rain at that magnitude for an hour, you would get seven and a half inches of rainfall. But you're not going to get those kinds of downpours for that kind of time period of time. Now, that also usually means that you it can dump an inch to inch and a half of rain in a very short period of time as these storms progress off to the north and east. So, I just wanted to look at those rain rates and just to remind you that that these storms are capable of producing some some really really heavy downpours as they move off to the north and east.
You can see the large overspreading of severe thunderstorm warnings now from Benville Parish all the way back to the Mississippi Valley spreading over really two different kind of radar vantage points if you will.
Still continuing to watch some areas kind of on that leading edge that the tornado threat with with how things have evolved today. The tornado threat is low, but it's not entirely zero. So when you watch a thing like this area here kind of on the northern edge to the southwest of Dodson where again shear is locally maximized in the atmosphere. We just continue to monitor.
That's that you're essentially babysitting thunderstorms at this point to make sure that something like this doesn't sneak up and produce some kind of brief tornado brief uh does not imply that it would be weak. It just means it may be quickly forming. Again, there's not a whole lot there in terms of the overall radar products that we would look at, but it is in a favorable position in terms of where it's located at the kind of in vicinity to the base of the MCV and and and where it is in the environment. That again that's what we do is we sit and monitor and make sure that that from radar uh swipe to radar swipe something doesn't you know change to the point that the severe thunderstorm warning needs to be a tornado warning seems unlikely at this point but it is worth again watching and analyzing on radar. Again, the storms moving through portions of southern Arkansas still capable of producing maybe I would think some 40 mph wind gusts as they make their way through.
You know what's really funny is I think a lot of folks the the thunder in in Parish I think was probably the kind of the perfect primer uh to get folks to pay attention because now a lot of folks in in Midtown Monroe got the crack of thunder or or in Rustin or in Richwood have heard the thunder in the distance or in Sterling or or now maybe even perhaps in Bastrop and Farmerville have heard that thunder and um they went, "Oh." And then then they checked the radar and now they see what's headed their direction downstream um across northern Louisiana. At least that's what you hope the case is.
And again, these warnings go well into the noon time frame, about another 45 minutes or so. And we'll continue to kind of just watch their progress as these storms make their way to the north and east.
starting to stack up some pretty hefty rain totals in Natches, Louisiana.
Uh, a little over an inch of rainfall.
Most of these are generally outside of our area.
And it also gets kind of tricky trying to decipher whose rainfall is like most recent and whose rainfall actually fell earlier this morning. Kfax is approaching a half inch of rainfall and also have seen a peak wind of 30.9 miles hour as the storms moved through earlier.
Check and make sure that they didn't have a higher wind gust that I'm not seeing.
Yeah, peak wind gust of uh little over 30 miles an hour uh in Kfax as the storms move through. Of course, that was a little while ago as these storms continue to make their way to the north and northeast.
Jeremy asked a legit question. How do you spot a hook echo in returns like this? Well, most of what we're going to see here won't necessarily be, you know, hook echoish. Uh, it will be because hook echoes specifically are more of a supercellular type tornado signature.
What you're going to be looking for here is like these little bookend vortex, like topend little spinners. Um, that's not the technical term, but we call them bookendin vortices vortex. um which is going to probably produce these are all within quasi linear convective system tornadoes. So there's going to be a lot of inflow notch like embedded circulations. Uh this won't necessarily be so but to answer your question, you're still looking for the same general things. You're still looking for for those spins of winds in the atmosphere, the reds and the greens combining together, but you just have to now modify where you're looking for them because again in in these storms that are moving more northeasterly, they're they're kind of creating a little bit more of that.
They're well, first off, they're at the base of this MCV, which again is maximizing low-level shear in the atmosphere, or at least providing some rising motion and and creating some low-level shear, but also, you know, the the kind of the friction of the the environment with storm motion as the as these are kind of turning into the atmosphere and turning more northward there, it does kind of help to enhance the shear as well. So, those are the areas that probably have the best potential to produce an isolated tornado. But then you look out to the east and those areas probably have the better potential of producing the the higher damaging wind potential.
The quickest way to answer all of that is that you you you do it through experience. You you've been through a lot of these a lot of times. This is any kind of tornado threat like this today would be extremely isolated and extremely brief. And you al also kind of have to accept the limitations that there's a good chance that if there if there were to be a tornado that formed today, and I'm not saying that one will, but if there will if there was going to be a tornado that formed today, there's a decent chance that we may not ever see it because it may form so quickly. it it it may be on the ground for 30 seconds and that's between radar swipes and and and sometimes you don't even have the radar vantage point to see it.
Right now I don't really see anything out here that is is alarming in any way um at least immediately that we look at we're looking at any kind of tornatic activity. Leanne does ask a legit question. Um, when will the bad storms be done with? Any idea? The watch again in place for a good chunk of the Arklamus. If you're under the watch, it's until 6. That threat will extend for a good chunk of the area through six. Now, for what it's worth, for those that are that are, you know, wondering, is there anything is there anything after this? Not really.
This is pretty much it.
Now, there will be additional residual rainfall to be had. Um, but in terms of the severe weather threat for today, it's all mainly focused in this area right here, which is moving this direction.
Those arrows are terrible.
It's just kind of sprawling out across the region. So, so the watch goes until six. There are areas like Grant Parish that are still under the watch that are probably just now relegated to rainfall at this point.
And so, I wouldn't be surprised for the severe weather threat to really tame down for a lot of those spots in the short term.
still bringing rain, but the severe threat becomes more more limited at that point.
There's the flood watch and the severe thunderstorm watch again until six, but mainly focused under the areas that are in a warning and points to the north and east.
We haven't done an ETA in a minute. So, let's do that.
For what it's worth, and we may just be moving again into kind of an awkward radar vantage point, but for what it's worth, especially with the kind of downtick in lightning. I say that we're up to 730 strikes. We the the the northern edge of these storms has looked a little punier here lately. Again, just for what it's worth.
Doesn't mean they can't kind of become rejuvenated.
So, here's a look at some of the arrival times.
Let's filter out some areas. So, let's filter out some more because we're moving through a lot of spots. Okay, so here's a look at some of the arrival times. If these storms continue at that 40 mph pace, again, if they're moving at 50, they're going to arrive a little bit sooner than that. You know what?
Let's bump up the speed.
Okay, that's up to 50 miles an hour. So, let's let's let's overestimate on arrival times, right? In fact, let's bump it up a little bit more. It's bumped up to 52.
Jonesboro, it's already raining and storming for you folks. Um, Colombia probably here in the next 10 or 15 minutes. Windsboro probably closer to 12:30, but it's probably raining in some of you spots um already. Um, Monroe little before 12:40. Ravvel 12:45.
So, there's our loop. As all of this continues to move off to the north and east, again, damaging wind gust potential exists. Heavy rain potential exists. Melissa says, "Alla just got some high wind." Jason asks, "I live in in Fountain Hill, Arkansas in a trailer house. Do I need to leave or stay?" I I I do not like making those decisions for people. I I don't like telling folks they need to leave their house. Um but obviously the damaging wind potential will exist. I would I would say that my suggestion would be to keep an eye on these storms over the next couple of hours and as these storms approach Ashley County. um then then make that decision in due time in the next, you know, hour or so of whether you need to go somewhere and seek shelter. For those that always get a little uneasy, um and and sometimes suggest maybe I maybe I do want to, you know, go somewhere that's a that's a sturdier building. Um, it's not a bad idea, but I would always kind of have a spot in mind before before you make that plan. You know, have somewhere that you know is going to be open or that is typically open 247.
um you know if there's a if you have a local pharmacy or a local you know store or something like that that again you know is open 24 hours a day and you know you can go just walk around for a little bit that's that's always been kind of a good or it's always you know if you have friends or family but I know that's that's a very strongly presumptive thing because a lot of folks don't have friends or family nearby Again, 60 mph wind gusts are our biggest hazard. the strongest leading edge of this storm right now and and kind of the area that I think has the best potential of producing kind of the strongest wind gusts.
This area right here as it moves off to the north and east though that area is probably the most organized at this point. But the the the grand scheme of things out of all of this, the biggest concern for our entire area is the widespread rain that has headed our direction.
Let's look at some of the radar estimated rain totals over the last 3 hours.
These are again radar estimated. They can vary wildly, but we're picking up another quick inch and a half to two inches of rain in some locations across Wind Parish and Lal Parish, Nacades Parish. Again, a lot of these areas, we needed flash flood warnings almost immediately after the storms rolled through because of the heavy rain that they're producing. Now, if these storms continue a gradual general weakening phase, which is to a certain degree kind of what we're seeing on the northern edge, they would again still be very heavy rain producers, but those more extreme rates, the purples that you're seeing on radar, those would start to fall off the map. And that would be a little bit of good news, too.
Starting to hear the thunder in the distance here in Monroe again.
So, as you watch these storms, again, a reminder that um the damaging wind potentials on the leading edge. So those strongest signatures that you're seeing, the strongest um the radar colors, the bright, you know, reds and purples at leading edge, that's the area that probably has the best wind possibilities along with lightning and heavy rain. If you hear the thunder, go ahead and start moving activities inside. And it's a pretty safe assumption for a lot of areas right now that if you're moving something inside, you may be inside for a little while.
Katie just asked just now hopping on is the main threat going to be flash flood risk load located around Rocky Branch there is some there obviously the severe thunderstorm warnings are out there is a severe thunderstorm watch in place and it does include Rocky Branch it does sounded like I said it doesn't it does include Rocky Branch and it includes the surrounding areas as well damaging winds are the primary concern with any any severe threat which is really localized here in the short term focused here in the short term next few hours again We're starting to see a little bit of a weakening trend with the line of storms, but the heavy rain potential will be problematic for a good chunk of the region as we work deeper and deeper into the day. Let's switch back over to southern Arkansas where we're starting to see some late development across uh Ashley County. As as a lot of folks are already mentioning um in Crosset and Hamburg and out toward Fountain Hill and and and points westward, we're starting to see kind of an uptick of showers and storms across the river valley from southern portions of Calhoun County into central Bradley County, northwestern Ashley County. All of this is moving off to the north and east. So again, Warren, Monaceel, some of the surrounding areas, be prepared for rain to continue through the early parts of the afternoon.
Sorry, I just said a lot of stuff right there.
And again, this this complex of storms is kind of spread out over an incredibly large uh area in terms of the different radar vantage points that we use.
Uh tree down on Highway 34 near State Route 499 in Wind Parish.
Uh another tree down on 167 north of Dry Prong near Williana.
And a tree down on Highway 472 near Wilder Road in Wind Parish. Just passing along a few um new storm reports.
And there they are on your screen. So again, there's the tree down there, the tree down there, and the tree down there.
And those are the only storm reports, uh, localized storm reports that we have currently.
We'll keep an eye on that, make sure it doesn't change.
Danielle says, "How's Jackson Parish looking? Quitman Punkin Center area looking kind of nasty out there. A good bit of lightning, winds, heavy rain.
Yeah, it's just I mean you guys are under a severe thunderstorm warning. Um and or or is Quipman under the severe thunderstorm warning? Yes. Uh you guys are under the severe thunderstorm warning and and again it'll be the winds and the rain, lightning, uh small hail potentially, but really we're we're concerned primarily for most of the area with just the wind possibilities as these storms continue to make their way to the north and east. starting to see a little bit of a weakening trend. Again, that northern edge is is kind of hitting its wall and it and it perhaps is is a colliding with some of the overturned environment from earlier in the day. Again, we will still have a lot of we don't have as much instability perhaps in these areas in far northern Louisiana because of the rain and storms overnight. There's still plenty of moisture in place. So, we're still driving and and and we've already got the rain and the storms going across these areas. So, I the rain's moving in whether we like it or not, but the severe threat may become a little bit more mitigated uh and a little bit more conditional as we progress through the afternoon.
Taylor, I would take I would take the hanging ferns down just in case.
So, obviously, storm activity will continue off to the north and east.
Again, severe thunderstorm warnings in place till 12:15 uh across parts of the Mississippi Valley till 12:30 across portions of northern Louisiana uh as as these storms continue to move off to the north and east. A reminder that uh the severe thunderstorm watch that's in place is in place till 6:00 p.m. tonight for the vast majority of the Arklamus region. And again, the warnings in place till 12:45, 12:30, and 12:15 across a good chunk of the region as the storms continue to to make their way through um this morning or this afternoon, excuse me, just hit the lunchtime time frame.
Uh so, we'll go ahead and kind of shut the live stream down from here. This will give me an opportunity to post a video out on all of our other platforms as well, just kind of updating the radar as we go into midday. Uh if anything changes in terms of kind of the severity of these thunderstorms, we will let you know, but obviously more updates expected through the rest of the afternoon. As we see uh the rain total stack up, we'll share more in terms of any flash flooding issues that are passed along with us. Of course, if you need to pass along things, you can always just submit them in the comments section of any post. Uh send us a direct message or you can email me at jared digital.com.
reminder that our severe weather coverage in all forms are always made possible by the local businesses that you see there on your screen. If you appreciate what we do, please appreciate what they do. And a reminder also that um severe weather alerts are 100% free and 100% fast. That doesn't really mean anything, but they are very, very quick with the digital weather app available for Apple and Android users. Links to download can be found at digital weather.com. Do not forget about our partnership with weather call nextG. uh receive a phone call, text message, email, or a combination of all three when a warning is issued for your area.
Again, more information can be found at digital weather.com. We'll keep you updated as we go through the rest of the afternoon. About to end this live stream, turn around and cut a video, and send that out for everybody else as we get ready uh to watch these storms move through the I20 corridor. Again, pretty efficient rain makers. Localized street flooding will probably be our biggest concern here in the short term. Exercise caution on your local roadways as we go through the remainder of this holiday weekend. As always, thanks so much for choosing the digital weather desk powered by Century Next Bank. We are so glad you're here. Be careful and enjoy the rest of your Saturday.
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