Andy Burnham 'Taking A BIG RISK' | Will Streeting Lend Support To Burnham?

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Patrick Diamond, a former Labor policy adviser, now academic. Patrick, great to have you on the program. I love your analysis of Labor. Where are we? I mean, what a day. What happens now?

[00:00:12]>> Well, that is a very big question to pose at this point in the evening, Peter. Um, yeah, what an extraordinary day. What an extraordinary week. Um, events have been obviously moving at a rapid pace. I think where we go from here is unclear. Um, one point I would make at the outset is that I think a couple of days ago, Kier Starmer's position was beginning to look extremely fragile.

[00:00:36]>> What I think is interesting about the course of events, particularly today, is that I think you can't rule out Starmer surviving.

[00:00:43]>> I'm terribly sorry to interrupt you, Patrick. It just we've got some breaking news and that is that James Murray, who was the chief secretary of the Treasury, has been named the new health secretary.

[00:00:52]He's been promoted to that role.

[00:00:53]Apologies to interrupt you, but I just thought our viewers and listeners would want to know that. Please continue, Patrick.

[00:00:58]>> Of course, and congratulations to James Murray on his elevation. Um, but um, as I was just saying, I think you can't rule out Stalmer now surviving for a considerably longer period of time than I think many people would have anticipated on Monday this week.

[00:01:14]>> I think that's that's uh very fair. And just to give an update on that before my next question to you, Patrick, James Murray is the new health secretary. Lucy Rigby is the new chief secretary to the Treasury and Rachel Blake is the is the um economic secretary to the Treasury uh there as well. So there have been a few changes but the main news of course is that James Murray is the new health secretary. He was chief secretary of the Treasury and seen as bit of a Star loyalist as well. Patrick, um it's really interesting what Sean and Bister was saying. You know what happens if Andy Burnham loses to reform? Look at the numbers as I'm sure you have and reform did very well in the local council elections recently. Although two years ago Andy Barnham got 62% of the vote in that constituency when he ran for mayor of Greater Manchester. What?

[00:01:56]However you look at this, it's a big risk and as you know far better than I do, the public often don't like being told this is what you will do.

[00:02:06]>> Well, I think Sean makes a very reasonable point. When you look at the numbers um of how the constituency voted in the local elections, obviously reform's position looks strong. um uh there's no question about that. Now, I think supporters of Andy Bernham would say he obviously has a very strong profile in that region. He's well known.

[00:02:29]He's thought of as somebody who is trying to deliver for his area and he has at the moment at least a good reputation with voters and perhaps that will be enough to counter the reform tide. But I think if you're a Labour supporter, you absolutely should not take for granted in any way the notion that Andy Bernham would would certainly win that seat. I think it will be clearly a very tight contest.

[00:02:50]>> Uh it will be very tight and I mean I've just been speaking to Andrew Rosundell there who says they're going to throw everything at it from Reform UK's perspective. I just wonder I mean there are a lot of whatifs. I think a lot of the what ifs have been cleared away by Kar making clear that he has no objection to Andy Burnham becoming the candidate for Makerfield. But can you see a scenario where actually West Streeting doesn't stand to be leader of the Labour party and there's some sort of coronation of Burnham? What what happens to other people as well? What's your analysis of Angela Rainer? There's so much going on at the moment it's hard to know exactly where this is going. I just wonder in a general sense what your not necessarily prediction is because that's always difficult but your sense of where it's going.

[00:03:33]>> Yeah, I mean predictions uh in the current environment are very dangerous.

[00:03:36]Um, no doubt Peter, you get me back on this program in two months time to tell me just how wrong I was.

[00:03:41]>> We'll play the clip. We'll play the clip. Yeah. I I used to I actually used to call myself the um professor Neil, what was his name? The guy during co Neil Ferguson of political prediction because he always say this is definitely going to happen and then it never did.

[00:03:54]And none of my political predictions ever work apart from when I said that uh the Conservative party was going to wake up in about a month's time and say what on earth have we done appointing Liz Truss prime minister. And I was absolutely right with that one. But I'm I'm not sure that makes me Mystic Meg.

[00:04:08]Sorry, Patrick. Go ahead.

[00:04:10]>> Well, indeed, it's it's a challenging task predicting British politics. Um, but I think what we can read from today's events is that it's not clear necessarily that Wes Streeting's intention is to launch a direct bid for the leadership. What he seems to be attempting to do is clear the path towards a contest in which there would be a number of candidates of which he may well not be one. Um and you can see a scenario emerging in which where streeting lends his support to Andy Bernham but is not a candidate in the election and presumably some deal is done between them whereby he streeting then receives a senior post in government. I mean I would just say incidentally Peter and I know you'll have views on this as well. How does this all look to the people of this country? Totally. Well, I think in one respect people may be saying, "Hang on a minute. You know, our politics isn't there to be stitched up by a few people in Westminster. What do we re what do voters what are people going about the day?"

[00:05:06]>> And it's not even just them, Patrick. I want to play you this clip actually from Graeme Stringer, the Labour MP. Now, of course, he is being pretty vocal against Starmer. He's on the right of the party.

[00:05:14]He's not exactly a mainstream person, but he always has things worth listening to. I asked him a bit earlier on in the program. I said, "Patrick, are you going to campaign for Andy Burnham in this bi-election?" This is what he said.

[00:05:25]You're a Greater Manchester MP. Are you going to knock doors in Meerfield and say vote for Andy Burnham?

[00:05:30]>> I've campaigned in most of the bi-elections in the north of England in my life. I would find it difficult to know what to say to people on the doorstep. If they say Andy and Josh have both abandoned us, one is the mayor. I wouldn't have an answer to that. So, at the moment, I I I think my answer to that is is no, because I I don't support the decision uh those two friends have have taken. Uh it's fine enough for Josh to risk his own career or Andy to risk his own career, but to risk the Labour Party's representation in those two areas, I think is irresponsible.

[00:06:11]>> Now, I'm not arguing, Patrick, that that represents mainstream opinion in the Labor Party. But what is absolutely clear is there is some consternation not just from the people of Makerfield, not just the questions that are being raised here, but allegations of of a kind of stitch up here actually Patrick and I wonder how that goes down especially when people have so little faith and trust in politicians and the political process. Well, that's clearly the risk and um I think Graeme Stringer sets out there, you know, very honestly um the reaction that there will be in in in some quarters, I think, both in the Labour Party and and and more and more generally in in in the in that area, which is people feeling that their local MP has walked away. Um it looks like some kind of deal has been done. Um how will all of that be received by voters?

[00:06:55]I think in fairness you'd have to say Andy Burnham is taking a big risk and in some ways this is an audacious move because obviously he's giving up a role that he's been very successful at as mayor of Manchester. He's taking the risk in doing that. So I think one can't be so unfair as to suggest that somehow this is just a stitch up. He's putting himself forward for for election. But I but I do concur with what Graeme Stringer says that I think this could look this could create an unfortunate impression which will not help the Labour Party to reconnect with alienated voters in places like Makerfield.

[00:07:28]>> Patrick, always worth listening to your great uh analysis of all of this. Thank you for uh joining us on the program this evening. That's Patrick Diamond there, former Labor policy adviser, now an academic uh one of my favorite uh analysts particularly of labor. I want to take a call now on the Farage story.

[00:07:43]quite a few people getting in touch about that. One of them is Chris and Epsom who's given me a ring at 03444991000.

[00:07:50]Chris, you're very welcome to the program. What do you make of this?

[00:07:53]>> Hi. Um, yeah, I I comment on this and I'd like to me talk something about Star.

[00:07:59]>> Sure, of course.

[00:08:02]>> I'm a reform voter, so cards on the table. I was at conference and I also went to um reform for veterans.

[00:08:11]>> Mhm. Um, I I was talking to Nigel and I saw his security team and had one tier one operator at least, possibly two, and two other guys as well. Now, if he's got a fourman team of that level, >> Mhm.

[00:08:31]>> Um, they'll do a 12-hour shift and switch out to another fourman team. All right. because the threat is so high around him. He would be constantly have four around him.

[00:08:41]>> Yeah.

[00:08:42]>> Um and that's not taken that that that would cost a million pound a year.

[00:08:46]>> Yeah. Easily.

[00:08:48]>> Just just just those eight men will cost him a million pound a year.

[00:08:52]>> Yeah.

[00:08:52]>> That's without taking into account >> his home, >> his children, his wife.

[00:08:58]>> You know, I I I admire him. I wouldn't I wouldn't have his job for all the tea in China.

[00:09:04]>> I I totally agree. by the way with Andrew Rosendell that he should have taxpayer funded uh security that the the the taxpayer funded security should be given to people based on risk alone and nothing else. Now the the government will say and the committee that does it will say that the risk doesn't constitute that. I think I think it clearly does. I think they're wrong on that. But I suppose the final question I have on this particular bit and I do want to ask you about Starmer is do you care about him being given a 5 million quid donation? Does anyone care? Do you is it an issue for you at all Chris? No, it's not an issue for me. But I do wish I and he said he took legal advice. Um but I do wish he had just said to him in the beginning, look, I'm taking 5 million quid um is for the work I've done on Brexit uh and for my security security going forward. And that would have been the end of it.

[00:09:53]>> Okay. Um quick word on Starmer uh if you want to Chris and then I got to go to a break, but go ahead >> please. I have a different view to everybody else.

[00:10:01]>> Okay. Um, Millipede kept quiet for a couple of weeks beforehand as it was all heating up. When Streeting went in and had his meet uh on the day of the cabinet meeting, he came out with a face like thunder because Star had backed him down. Um, I think because it's not just the left and the right of the Labour party. You got the globalists in the middle which is Herma, Star, Milliped and a few others. I think the stitch up that I think it's already done and adjusted. I think that despite Raina's clever uh play of holding back that HMRC have cleared me until this morning. Um I think it'll be miniber gets the gets the job.

[00:10:44]>> Very interesting thought on that.

[00:10:46]>> I think I think Slama okay will tell his other globalists vote vote for Milliband.

[00:10:52]>> Okay. Thank you Chris. Really interesting perspective on that.