Analysis: Ukraine Launches Largest Drone Assault On Moscow, Hits Oil Refinery

[00:00:00]part of Moscow reporting what they describe as black rain after Ukraine launched its largest drone assault on the Russian capital uh since the start of the full-scale war.

[00:00:10]Russian authorities say nearly 1,000 drones and four cruise missiles were intercepted across the country within 24 hours. But strikes still reached key targets including the Kapotnya oil refinery in southeast Moscow.

[00:00:24]Videos are circulating online show thick black smoke rising into the sky as fires burned at the facility. Local residents told media outlets that oily black specs fell across the parts fell across parts of the city uh staining clothes and vehicles.

[00:00:40]Moscow authorities denied reports of oil rain but advised vulnerable residents in affected areas to stay indoors and keep windows closed. At least 70 people were reported injured in the Moscow region while an oil depot in southern Russia was also hit.

[00:00:58]Let's bring in Dr. uh Ebe Ebe. He is the the chairman of the Nigerian Nigerian in diaspora Russia chapter. He joins me from Moscow. Good to have you join us, Dr. Ebe.

[00:01:14]So, is the tide of this war now changing and is Russia losing momentum in this war?

[00:01:26]Uh Dr. Ebe, if you can unmute yourself.

[00:01:30]>> Am I audible now?

[00:01:31]>> Yes, you are. Please go ahead.

[00:01:33]>> Yeah, from my limited knowledge and experience, of course, I don't have all the cards uh compared to uh those at the top, but uh my limited experience, I don't think so.

[00:01:46]Um uh in fact, I believe it's actually the opposite.

[00:01:51]Um there's nothing new in um in the strategy.

[00:01:56]Uh it's just the fact that it's affecting Moscow capital and serious important infrastructure in the Moscow capital and that's the difference. Why I say it is in news that is 21st century drone warfare is a cheap way to score high military target and maybe media victory. But it does not go with um invasion or occupation or inhabiting what you destroyed. And the the other side can easily recoup and also launch a retaliatory strike. It can never be a decapitation strike. So it's very limited and does not change the tide in the special military operation.

[00:02:40]>> This is Russia's capital. This is Russia's refinery. You don't think that this indicates that Russia is not a fortress, that it is indeed vulnerable?

[00:02:50]>> Um in the 21st century with drone warfare anybody part of or any side in the conflict is vulnerable. It is not drones can be sent in waves. You can defend the first wave, the second wave.

[00:03:07]Everything will ultimately boil down to the amount of anti-rocket or anti-drone artillery or missile you have left and it can easily be overwhelmed. We saw this in the Israeli-Iran conflict. Israel was not um you know, was also vulnerable even though they had the help of America and most of the Western allies from cheap drone warfare.

[00:03:38]So it will happen to each and every one or anyone in the 21st century who engages in a conflict where one side has a drone. So there's really nothing new here except for the fact that it's affected an important facility in the Moscow, which is the capital of Russia.

[00:03:56]>> Mhm. But this has to be economically significant for Russia considering that a major part of its revenue is from its energy sector.

[00:04:05]>> I totally agree with you on that. In terms of economics and the fact that Russia is a major oil exporter, it should affect revenue. But on the other hand, the the prices of energy are extremely high right now, especially with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. And Russia having so many refineries and so many ports and so many fleets which some people like to call shadow fleet and also official fleet.

[00:04:37]Yes, it could dent revenues, but of course there are other ways to to to make this.

[00:04:46]>> Now, Kyiv has been stepping up its targeting of Russian energy infrastructure. In long-range attacks in recent weeks. And the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has framed it as a key strategy to force Russia to end this this war. Are these attacks sufficient enough to put pressure on President Putin?

[00:05:08]>> You know, pressure is not something that can be put on one side unilaterally. For every attack you've seen in this conflict, every destruction you've seen, I would say that there are 10 times more destruction in Ukraine in Kyiv.

[00:05:25]For every attack you see in Moscow, there are 10 more that happens in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine on a daily basis. And that equally can also be classified as pressure.

[00:05:36]What I can say objectively is that with the escalated level of escalation that has happened right now, it definitely cannot go on for long because it's a new phase in the war of attrition.

[00:05:51]And obviously with the loss of territory, if you look at the ground, the loss of territory in both Konstantinovka, Sloviansk region, you would see that Russia is actually making more progress on the front. And it's followed backed up with also the attacks that are going on in Ukraine. Of course, I wish that there would be peace and there would be dialogue because dialogue is the way out. But with this level of escalation, this is clear that one side will have to throw in the towel soon. But as the president of Nigerians in Diaspora Organization, I'm very concerned about the welfare of Nigerians here. And that's why I've taken extra steps to reach out to them to find out about their welfare, to hear feedback. And thank God up till now no one has been fatally affected.

[00:06:46]>> I was going to ask you about that because just as we wrap up the conversation, I was going to ask you hope you're safe.

[00:06:52]And then how are Nigerians in Russia doing as well? I know you're not all in the same place, but just in terms of the feedback you get from them, what's their safety level?

[00:07:03]>> Yeah, I'm in constant contact with embassy staffs, Nigerians here. And so far there hasn't been any um fatality or mortality of Nigerians here.

[00:07:19]But that doesn't mean also that that's all our area of interest. Of course, my heart goes out to those who have been affected, especially Russians. The school bus, the bus coming from Belarus to Russia that was attacked. A pregnant I think it was a children football team. The wife of the head coach, pregnant woman was killed together with her pregnancy and we have eight hospitalizations including two children.

[00:07:49]Yeah, the Belarusian and the Russians have classified it as a terrorist attack. My heart goes out to all the victims irrespective of nationality, tribe, gender and I hope that we can find some resolution and some peace because obviously dialogue is the way forward.

[00:08:07]>> I have just I'm worried about a minute now.

[00:08:12]Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said Moscow will launch a regular strikes against targets in Ukraine that would impact the combat readiness of his armed forces. How how badly do you think that these things could escalate?

[00:08:26]>> Like I said it's a new level of escalation anyone who thinks that Russia wouldn't retaliate back or mirror it to say the very very least would be making a huge mistake.

[00:08:42]>> Dr. Godwin Egbey chairman Nigerians in Diaspora organization Russia chapter.

[00:08:47]Thank you so much for your time. Stay safe.

[00:08:51]>> Thank you so much Robin.

[00:08:54]>> That's it on what now. Thank you so much everyone for watching. I am Precious Amayo.