With New Ceasefire, Is Pakistan’s Role Getting Bigger? | Full Frame with Fahd Hussain

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[00:00:16]Hello and welcome. I'm Fahd Hussain.

[00:00:18]Tonight the guns have fallen silent in the Persian Gulf. For now. And the reason they have fallen silent tells you a great deal about where power, trust, and diplomacy are actually sitting in this moment.

[00:00:30]President Donald Trump has announced that the ceasefire with Iran will continue, and he did not frame this as a unilateral American decision or a negotiated understanding alone, but made it clear in his own words that this extension comes at the request of Pakistan.

[00:00:47]Which actually is a remarkable statement when you consider scale of the conflict and the stakes involved. Also, what is crucially important is that President Trump has also said in an interview that the next round of talks could begin as early as Friday. We will have to wait and see how that pans out, but talking about his tweet, his post this morning, that one line which I mentioned, which he placed casually in a social media post, I think that carries enormous weight because it signals that at a moment when Washington and Tehran do not trust each other, there is at least one country whose voice is being heard by both sides. And that country, of course, is Pakistan. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif responded quickly, publicly thanking President Trump for accepting Pakistan's request and expressing the hope that this pause in fighting would create space for dialogue.

[00:01:44]Which again tells you something important about how Islamabad is positioning itself.

[00:01:49]Not as a bystander, not as a commentator, but as an active participant in shaping what happens next.

[00:01:57]Even from Tehran, the reaction has been cautious but telling. Iran's ambassador to the UN has welcomed the continuation of the ceasefire while emphasizing that any pause must lead to a serious political process.

[00:02:10]Which is diplomatic language, but clear in its intent because it signals that Iran is willing to hold fire, but not indefinitely and certainly not without movement towards some broader understanding.

[00:02:24]So tonight we find ourselves in a moment that is deceptively calm.

[00:02:29]There is no war in the Gulf, but there is no peace either.

[00:02:33]And that space in between, this uneasy, fragile pause, is often the most dangerous phase of any conflict because it creates the illusion of stability while leaving all the underlying tensions intact, waiting for a single miscalculation, a single incident, a single decision to push everything back over the edge.

[00:02:56]That is why the real question tonight is not what just happened. The real question is what happens now?

[00:03:04]What does the ceasefire actually mean if it is not anchored in a political process? How long can mistrust be contained without resolution? And how easily could this entire situation unravel again?

[00:03:18]And this is where Pakistan's role becomes even more significant because it is one thing to help stop a war, it is another thing entirely to help prevent it from starting again.

[00:03:27]Right now, Pakistan appears to be the only country that both sides are willing to listen to. The only country that can carry messages, shape expectations, and potentially bring adversaries back to the table when direct trust does not exist.

[00:03:43]This is not a symbolic role. This is a strategic one.

[00:03:47]So the question we need to ask tonight is not just about the ceasefire, it's about the next phase.

[00:03:53]How does Pakistan manage this position?

[00:03:55]How does it convert access into influence? And how does it ensure that this phase becomes a pathway and not just a delay before the next round of conflict?

[00:04:06]Because history tells us something very clearly. Ceasefires hold when they lead somewhere. They collapse when they don't.

[00:04:14]So are we looking at the beginning of a political process or simply an intermission in a longer conflict? And what exactly is Pakistan's role going to be as this story unfolds?

[00:04:25]That's the conversation tonight. So let's get into it. We are joined by two guests. Air Vice Marshal retired Shahzad Chaudhry is is our guest. He's also a former ambassador, so he brings both the military as well as the diplomatic experience and and and expertise into today's discussion. Zahid Hussain is our is our second guest, Pakistan's famous journalist, leading columnist who writes for the Dawn, and is one of the most widely read columnists in Pakistan.

[00:04:55]Very grateful both of you that you joined. Shahzad Chaudhry This uh ceasefire, of course, you know, when when we were discussing this the last couple of days, I think almost everybody felt and I was also constantly saying this that the the lowest hanging fruit is in fact just an extension of the ceasefire because because other than that everything seemed so complicated and that the distance between the US and and Iran was was so wide that it was probably unrealistic to think that it would be bridged so quickly. So this was the the basic minimum demand that I think everybody was making. That has happened, and not only has it happened, President Trump has in fact credited Pakistan for doing this. So based on this, do you think this was the best possible thing that could have been done in in what is clearly a very complicated and and difficult situation?

[00:05:54]Absolutely. I mean, under the circumstances when the two sides were unwilling to even come together, to be able to forge a ceasefire as quite quite an essential thing for and for the peace of the region, I think. And so when you look at it from that perspective, the two sides were at a war and in the first instance when you were able to get them together when in the first phase and immediately following a ceasefire that went on for about 10 days between the two, I think that helped tremendously.

[00:06:23]It must have earned trust on both sides that Pakistan was a honest broker, would like to work things out, help things out, facilitate as much as possible. And then of course this time as well when things were almost broken between the two and they were unable to come together on the table, to be able to still get a forge and and get a ceasefire out of this situation to avoid the war further, get into the war further, and and imagine the devastation that it could have caused to the to to to to the to Iran and to the region. And to be able to come out of it in relatively peacefully with the hope that they can things can work out for the better, I think it's a it's a great achievement. I think that is what Pakistan should credit itself for as well. It is a great achievement, no doubt, but Zahid uh the problem now is that we are in a situation where it is uh neither war nor peace. And it's it's a tense situation where the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain blocked by Iran.

[00:07:23]American's naval blockade remains in place. So the um the negative adverse impact of this entire conflict on the region and the world will continue to persist.

[00:07:34]And yet in the absence of any agreement, it at best it is a it is a halt in in hostilities and anything, one small trigger, one little accident, one misstep could just bring the entire thing coming back. So we are in a extremely volatile situation even now.

[00:07:56]It's really a very tentative peace at the moment. It's a It was a very positive announcement to extend the ceasefire, but it was not enough. I think probably in the presence of naval blockade by United States, the whole purpose of ceasefire actually would not materialize because it was seen as as an act of war. The very naval blockade of Iran Iran considered it. And so it would have been much better if with the announcement to extend the ceasefire, US should also have suspended the naval blockade. That would have actually paved the way for the second round of talk. Pakistan did its best, and I think Pakistan's effort has been recognized that at least actually ceasefire has been extended. But I think probably now Trump has to do more to bring Iran on the negotiating table. You are right.

[00:08:55]This is this is the situation could be best called as no peace no peace no war.

[00:09:02]It's a very tense moment, and I think it's very tentative as I said earlier, it's a very tentative because anything and any incident could you know trigger yet another round of war. It's almost like sitting on a powder keg.

[00:09:17]Shahzad Chaudhry, but the fact that you know we've been able to at least uh you know, bring President Trump to to a stage where only 24 hours earlier he was threatening to start bombing Iranian power plants. From there to writing on on his on his Truth Social and that based on the fact that the government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly unexpectedly so, and upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal, which means it is open-ended.

[00:10:03]It could be 1 day. It could be 1 month.

[00:10:06]Why this open-ended, you know, clause here where we've always seen Donald Trump come up with deadlines and then start putting pressure on those deadlines. This is a departure from what he normally does.

[00:10:21]Yeah, I mean you I mean you started rightly in the sense that you imagine what could have been happening this morning or today. Uh because there's a ceasefire had run out the previous stint of the ceasefire and uh the US with all its forces along with Israel, I'm sure, which is very much waiting in the wings to do whatever it has been doing for a long time. And the two of them have would have come together again on Iran and Iran would have been founded again today. Uh unfortunately for for Iran and for the rest of us.

[00:10:49]But but but the real point is that both sides are keen not to get into war. So, this ceasefire that we are in today assures us and and and reconfirms this that there is no appetite for war anymore war between the two. Now, as far as the the naval blockade is concerned, uh perhaps the naval blockade would have been the first uh first set of you know, steps that perhaps the US would have taken had the two gotten together in Islamabad. But that's a that's more of a speculation than what could have happened. Uh but there was something for the both sides to give up.

[00:11:26]And perhaps the first thing as a confidence building would have been the naval blockade from the American side and a raising of the or or removing the blockade from from the Iranian side or the control of Hormuz. But that didn't happen. So, what we have now is a time period and your question as to why it is open-ended simply for the fact that I think the US and Pakistan perhaps believe that there is a need for a consensus to emerge out in Tehran on the way forward. On the move forward, what steps to get together. Remember both sides are playing to their domestic audiences as well. So, when you look at that, there's got to be building up of the of the support at the home level at the domestic level to be able to say that we did our very best and we were we did not give in to the pressures on both sides.

[00:12:15]Remember had one been a clear victor and the other a clear loser, then the situation would not have been there.

[00:12:21]But since both sides have entered into a stalemate or entered into a stalemate, that has given that cause. But that also is an opportunity or or a cause for Iran to make the most out of the situation.

[00:12:32]The other fear that I have is that what if this war also was to go on for 4 years, just like the Ukraine-Russian war and nobody seems to be bothered about it.

[00:12:41]I mean this war could have stayed on as well for that longer period. So so imagine the consequences of that kind of a situation where the world has lost interest, moved away and said, "Okay, you guys go ahead and fight it out." So, I feel that there is this feeling that the space has to be given on all sides, domestic as well as in terms of the regimes to be able to work out what works best for them and how to get there. What are the ends essentials that they must meet and how to get there. So, I think that's the time that has been given to them. Hopefully, sense should prevail on both sides. I think the US absolutely wants to get out. Iran must get its sort of know exactly how to get the most out of the situation.

[00:13:18]Otherwise, you they will lose this space also. This is the critical space that they've created because of the war. And and and the position that they're in, they can actually demand quite a advantageous terms. And that's where Pakistan's role comes in.

[00:13:32]Zaid Sahab, this is the second time uh that Pakistan has successfully convinced President Trump and Iran to uh opt for a ceasefire. That that is no mean achievement.

[00:13:44]You know, however whichever way we look at it.

[00:13:47]So, the fact that we started off as a country which was trying to get the two sides together in Islamabad to try and resolve their issues. And you know, if you remember at that time there was also talk of whether Pakistan would actually be part of the negotiations. In fact, in the first round there was there was some speculation that Pakistan may just get those two sides together in the room and then let them just figure out what they need to do. But as it turned out during that first round that not only was Pakistan in the room, that negotiation was formally called a trilateral negotiation. So, from there till now, where we are not just mediating but being the only communication channel between the two sides and and probably negotiating on behalf of one of one and the other.

[00:14:38]Is does this mean this a role that started off as a simple facilitator is growing and growing and is likely to grow even more now?

[00:14:50]Certainly, Pakistan has played a very positive role and as a as a honest broker uh they did very well and I think probably that was because of Pakistan's effort that the first round of talks did happen. And even for second round of talk, Pakistan had almost persuaded Iran and also has used his influence over Trump administration to you know, to create a more conducive environment for the for the for the talk. Nobody can expect that the this whole and four decades long conflict would be resolved in one sitting. But it has one it has to be a prolonged negotiation.

[00:15:37]But so somewhere it has to be started.

[00:15:40]And that for that actually they have to they have to agree on some confidence building measures. And that always happen in in international negotiations.

[00:15:49]Uh it is it will take a long time. But for the the best thing could happen yes actually it is one could say that extension of of ceasefire is a very positive development. But new some new development have also taken place since the first round of of talks in Islamabad. And that is basically UN US naval blockade of Iran. That has actually changed the situation. Uh so I would I would have said and I think probably Pakistan must have done something to persuade Trump to to also lift or suspend rather suspend the naval blockade. But it did not happen. Now, it's all I think probably I would say that it is in America's the ball is in America's court at the moment. Uh Iran has its own compulsion, no doubt about that. It's a it's basically a country which has been devastated by by a war which was not of its choice. It was not an aggressor. So, obviously Iran is not in a position to concede more. Uh so I think probably uh if they have sat together, things would have melted. But I think lot will also depend how the messaging from from from Washington. It's a mixed messages which has also created a lot of confusion. Like you cannot actually do some kind of conversation or peace process could be sustained if you keep threatening the other country. I think they should also bring down the the tenor and they should actually at least keep quiet for some time. And it happens in every negotiation. If you could if you see actually every major negotiation almost is led or followed by some kind of confidence building measures. And this is one of the those measures which should have been taken. So, looking ahead now, Zaid Sahab, I'm going to take advantage of the fact that you know, I have both of you columnists of Pakistan. You're also writing for the Express Tribune regularly. Again, very incisive columns and Zaid Sahab has been writing continues to write for the Dawn. So, as you know, the top columnists of Pakistan, if you look ahead purely from an analytical framework, Pakistan's role is now probably going to grow, which means that they are going to be more demands or more expectations from both sides. I mean we are talking directly Field Marshal Asim Munir is said to be talking directly to President Trump. And the fact that we could convince him to do to do ceasefire twice means that clearly we have a certain amount of influence over him or he's taking taking us very seriously what we say. Similarly, I don't think Iran has too many countries who can who can speak with Tehran and with and with Washington at simultaneously.

[00:18:47]So, this places a responsibility on us.

[00:18:51]It also places expectations on us. It also adds a tremendous amount on us.

[00:18:58]So, should we [laughter] should >> I agree with you. I think Pakistan must clearly delineate as to what should be the limits of its involvement and engagement.

[00:19:07]Because Pakistan's own heft, regardless and despite the fact that you mentioned that we we are a nation that has cordiality with both in Tehran as well as in Washington to a certain extent.

[00:19:19]So, with that kind of an advantage that Pakistan enjoys, I think Pakistan still must be very careful in terms of identifying the limits of our own engagement in the process. While we have two essentials that we must make sure. One that the ceasefire does take place. And secondly, perhaps as you move along to make sure that Hormuz gets to open both through the removal of the naval blockade by the US as well as removing restrictions by Iran on over Hormuz. I think if we can do these two things for the sake of the the region, for the sake of Asia, for the sake of world economy, I think we would have achieved an absolutely great job by ourselves, by our engagement and involvement. And these these things are doable. These things are doable. I mean, if you get involved for example the regional countries in terms of convincing Iran that Hormuz needs to have a free passage, I think I think that I think Iran will understand that. But along with that comes the other more detailed or complicated stuff that Iran has a hope for, for example this is removal of sanctions.

[00:20:26]And and and the US may want to apply restrictions in terms of the nuclear thing. Now these are the areas that that Pakistan by itself would not have enough heft to to get engaged in. That is when the framework that we are talking about or hearing so much about comes into play. And the framework says that you'll have groups that will be discussing or taking over the responsibility to determine how to handle the nuclear side of things and how to remove the sanctions, which of course can again be a group of nations which will have a together a greater heft in terms of ensuring that there is some guarantee how how things will play out. So this has happened before the JCPOA was signed as far as the nuclear war is concerned.

[00:21:05]Perhaps they can go back to a similar sort of a setup. And secondly as far as sanctions are concerned, well the moment the JCPOA gets signed, I think the sanctions should become then an automatically removal of the sanctions should become an automatic thing because that is what will ensure that Iran gets back to be a normal nation and links into the global world as it's as as is its right.

[00:21:27]So I think those are the things that can be done, but those are the best left to the two sides and to a group of more influential members including Pakistan of course. But Pakistan has this responsibility to ensure that we get into a framework and to somehow keep the ceasefire going and helping Hormuz get back to its normal operations.

[00:21:46]>> And and that responsibility what what Shahzad Chaundry Sahib is referring to Zaid Sahib and you know that's where that that's where I was trying to bring the discussion to finally.

[00:21:55]That responsibility of bringing the two sides to sit down on a table and at least agree on a basic framework based on which they can then you know work out the details.

[00:22:06]Right now the biggest challenge is to bring them to that stage. And and and to do that right now there is no other country other than Pakistan. I mean that's how I'm looking at it. Which in turn means that our role between now where we are today and that point where both sides actually agree to sit down is going to keep on growing and both sides are going to probably become much more dependent on us.

[00:22:31]That's a good thing, right?

[00:22:34]Well actually yes, certainly Pakistan has played its role very well. It was a very difficult task to bring two orange side on the negotiating table. And that was a I mean one should praise Pakistan for that when the first round of talks already happened. And that has created an atmosphere for the for the you know further talks, but unfortunately some more development has taken place.

[00:23:00]Pakistan well it's Pakistan is the best place at this moment to play this role since it has a very good relationship with United States and and also fairly well you know a relationship with Iran and it's also being a neighbor country.

[00:23:17]And the one thing more which has made that given Pakistan this most much more important or basically allowed it to play this role of mediator is that Pakistan is not directly or indirectly involved in this conflict. So that means actually Pakistan's position is still is of that of a neutral. And one should not forget actually Pakistan has done so far a very delicate balancing act. You know it's the only country if you remember few weeks ago that two resolutions were presented in the United Nations Security Council. One was which presented by some by some Arab country was that criticism of Iran for its attack on on the Gulf country and the Pakistan voted for that. The second resolution was moved by by Russia which actually condemned American attack on American Israeli attack on Iran. So Pakistan also voted for that. So in a way actually Pakistan has has kept its position very well and but there's also limit to that. You know to which Pakistan can play. Pakistan as I said actually this was a very difficult job. It was not easy to bring them on negotiating table. But now actually Pakistan can still make effort and it's not just Pakistan, but other country will have to play their role too to to persuade these two sides to at least start some kind of negotiation. But for that I think I I will keep saying that America should lift this or suspend this naval blockade. You know as far as Iran was concerned if you remember as soon as the this ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon was reached uh uh Iran has actually lifted its its blockade.

[00:25:18]So I think that's It did re-impose it after US move started to start this naval blockade.

[00:25:26]That that would in fact be the breakthrough that we are looking for. Uh I would like to thank Shahzad Chaundry Sahib and Zaid Hussein Sahib both of you for joining us today discuss about this very important topic.