Hurricane HQ 🌀: Super El Niño Chances Rise Ahead of Hurricane Season

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:01]All right, we are back here on Weather Command. It's uh one of the big pieces of news today. The Climate Prediction Center releasing an update regarding the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Inso.

[00:00:11]>> It's a lot to digest, but it's important and a very important factor when it comes to hurricane season. And new guidance as of this morning suggesting El Nino is likely to emerge soon with odds now sitting at 82%. It is expected to persist into the winter months at a staggering 92% probability rate. And far from home, that's the zone we look at, Nino region 3.4. And no longer is that region cooler than average, as we had from the CPC just a month ago learned.

[00:00:42]It is now warmer than average. It is on the the precipice of looking at inso El Nino conditions taking over. Now, with that new update, the CPC, it's a very technical discussion, but they had a line in here that is pretty straightforward, saying stronger El Nino events do not ensure strong impacts.

[00:01:01]They can only make certain impacts more likely. It's a probabilities thing. It always is, but it's a pattern that we're going to need to follow pretty closely.

[00:01:10]>> All right, we do want to welcome in Noah meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson with more on some of the latest guidance. And Nathaniel, your research, it focuses in on climate dynamics.

[00:01:20]>> So with that, very simple, >> very simple. Yeah. Very, very easy, straightforward topic. But can you elaborate a little bit more on the latest Enzo update? And I think I misspoke. I believe it's 96% when we get into the winter months when it comes to El Nino uh likely to emerge and and maintain. Um so what factors, what was the team looking at specifically to be able to come up with that number of 82%.

[00:01:44]>> Right. Yeah. So, you're right. The latest outlook is more confident that we're going to transition to El Nino within the next couple of months. One of the reasons is that the the tropical Pacific is extremely warm if you look under the ocean surface. In fact, it's about as warm as it was in 1997 when we had another major Elnino event. And our our computer model guidance continues to indicate high confidence that we will transition to El Nino and um and higher confidence that this may be a strong event later in the fall. And and I don't want to get ahead of myself, but that 96% chance is high. I am wondering if if you know, has the CPC ever issued something where it's 100% likely so far out? I mean, this is this is almost a slam dunk, Nathaniel, but but as you guys said or even cautioned that this doesn't ensure strong impacts. This just makes certain impacts a bit more likely.

[00:02:36]>> Right. You're right. This is an unusually confident forecast given that it's May. Usually our our forecast for El Nino in the spring tend to be less confident. Um but the signal is just unusually strong this time of year. So I'm not sure if we've ever been this confident this early in the season. Um but you're also right even if we do get El Nino, which is, you know, virtually certain at this point, there are other factors that can impact our our weather and climate at any given season. So those other factors tend to be less predictable. um but they can still be important and that's why we can't be certain that the impacts of El Nino um will be uh will be felt just that they're they're more likely when we have a stronger event >> and it you know I want kind of in relation to that and this is I was wondering so we talk about the 82% chance in May and July there is that 96% chance for December through February of next year what about that gap in between uh so part my ignorance, but the the August, September, October, >> right? Uh it's it's still very likely that we will see Elnino conditions by then. So, El Nino, it really tends to peak in the late fall, early winter. So, um so that's why our confidence in it developing by then is is even higher. Um but in this case, you know, our confidence is still pretty high that by August, September, um we're going to be seeing El Nino conditions.

[00:04:06]>> I I haven't been able to go through all the research that that you've been a part of and and it is an exhaustive list, but we always look at INSO through the lens of hurricane season, Nathaniel, and and wondering if what we heard from the CPC today if if that would change anything. Noah is going to be releasing their hurricane forecast a week from today and in so when there's an El Nino signal here that often means that Atlantic storms are mitigated because of because of wind shear. But does this play into anything or does this just simply make you look ahead to the winter and say, "Boy, we could very much have another El Nino winter, the first I think since 2023."

[00:04:46]>> That's correct. U 20 23 24. Um, so in terms of the hurricane outlook, uh, I, you know, I'm not involved in producing the outlook, but I'm very confident that the latest ENSO outlook will factor in to their, uh, their hurricane out for the reasons you mentioned. So when we have an El Nino, we tend to see suppressed activity in the Atlantic and enhanced activity in the Eastern Pacific. Uh, and this only increases the likelihood that we will see Elno conditions during the hurricane season.

[00:05:14]Um, but as you mentioned, a lot of the major impacts across the US occur in the winter. So this does uh increase the chance that we're going to see some of those impacts in the winter which includes you know enhanced storminess of the southern tier of the US and that could be good news for a lot of the southern US that's experienced drought um but maybe not so good in terms of the more northern areas that are under drought. Um as the shift southward shift of the storm track means that greater chance of the northern areas stay dry. I even think it for the winter, too. I know we got to go, Nathaniel, but in Minneapolis, I mean, when there's an El Nino in the winter, things often get warm, very warm for a city like like then, there's been a lot of buzz, and I can't believe I haven't asked this, and sorry, but super El Nino, is that something you say? I know it's not a technical term, but it what are what are your thoughts on on a super Elnino developing where that region 3.4 exceeds two degrees C?

[00:06:07]>> Right. So yeah, we don't know I don't use the the super Elnino terminology, but the chance of a you know a very strong event above two degrees Celsius, the latest outlook says it's over 35% chance and that's you know not definite, but the chances are are certainly there that we will have a very strong El Nino.

[00:06:26]So again, unusually confident for this time of year, but there's still a wide uh range of possibilities uh this far out.

[00:06:33]>> All right. Well, we were waiting for that update and we appreciate getting your voice along with that outlook that went out u well around 9:00 a.m. Eastern time. So, appreciate your time.

[00:06:41]Meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson and uh we'll be following what that what that Equatorial Pacific is going to be doing over the coming >> with a magnifying glass.

[00:06:49]>> Yes, very much so. Like this. Thank you.

[00:06:51]Thank you, Nathaniel.

[00:06:52]>> My pleasure. Thank you. Kisman.