A necessary reality check that uses the law of large numbers to dismantle the "bad luck" myth common in gacha communities. It effectively illustrates how human intuition fails when confronted with actual statistical distributions.
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Deep Dive
Are You Kidding Me Moonton?? ⁂ Watcher of RealmsAdded:
How the heck are you everybody? I am Fast Cidius and we are doing big big polls today on my account. So big that we're going to have to start with a prayer to that sweet goddess Venoma.
Before we do, I want to tell you we've got Ireless and Adrian on a very nice banner together. And as you can see, if we scroll through, I've got a lot of A5s on my account. Maybe not in the Northerners actually. Let's just look at overall. You can see I've got a fair amount of A5 heroes. I don't know. and more than I could A5 with everything in the overflow, but IS and Adrian, granted they're newer characters, they're both sitting at A Z and I really want to pull at least one copy of each and ideally I want to pull three copies of Ireless. If this starts going totally ary, I will definitely bail out. But you can see I've got a lot of diamonds. I have Where is it? Actually, not that many of these rare summons, though. I have done a couple 10 pulls on this banner already, I should say. We did a big 24-hour marathon stream. And in this stream, I had one of these options on a wheel we were spinning when people donated. It was a big fundraiser that I would do some yolo 10 pulls. So, you can see I've done two yolo 10 pulls and then I accidentally did a 10 pole on my account on stream earlier. We're also live right now. Thanks you guys for being here. 151 viewers. This is what we're doing. We're going to get after this. I'll tell you, I'll promise you right now, I'm going to pull till I max out this spiritual altar. I still need another almost 23,000 points. I'm not going to pull any ancients and then I'm going to get nine ancients back from this banner. That's pretty dang valuable. We'll pull at least to 47,000 minimum. So that's 357 pulls. Very likely I'm going to pull a lot more than that. I'd be comfortable pulling call it 6 or 700 pulls, but I don't want to go crazy unless it starts getting good. I might rip my divines in case of emergency break the glass to hit a banner unit here if we're getting really desperate for. We shall see.
Without further ado, we've got to pray and then we've got to pull. One, two, three, four. Some of my worst circles of all time, but who knows? Maybe that's a good thing. Let's go down to esoteria order. Let's go back and we'll go one more. We go here. We go star piercer, esoteria order, venomo, counterclockwise, clockwise. Oh, the goddess Venom, bring that sweet luck home. Don't bring yourself. You can stay. Just give us the luck. All right, let's go. Bye-bye.
Boom. Big lag. Does it mean it's legendary? No, it doesn't.
Thanks for asking.
A lot of people sharing the numbers.
Thank you guys. I appreciate that. I'm actually streaming on YouTube today. My polls, something I rarely do, but it was a pretty mini poll party, just me and three viewer accounts. So, I said if people were nice and I'll know I'll know if you in the future. It's happening now, but in the future I'll know if you weren't nice and you, you know, spread the word of what happened. I said if you were nice and you wouldn't do spoilers, I would do it on YouTube. So, here we are. It's a test. We'll see if I ever do this again. Can people keep those sweet little lips sealed? Because this this needs to be an edited video after the fact. People are commenting that my voice changes when I start filming. It doesn't I just have to wake up a little bit. I can't film and be like, "All right, guys. Uh, who is next on the queue?" You know, you got to bring a little energy. Uh, just how it goes, baby. Let's see it, though. Let's see it. Tons of blues. We will absolutely take that. 210 Diamontes. Feeling like a full pity, right? It's already It's got that sweet tinge of a full pity. We did these polls for two viewers. One viewer was only divine. Shout out to Trey. But for Melville and God Maker, we did pulls on this banner. Melville was a full pity kind of situation, but we sniped an IS.
God maker was insane. In 50 pulls, I pulled him a new Talon and a new Ilus.
It's pretty awesome stuff. Actually, I think it was a dupe ISIS, but that's who we wanted and it was very good. Let's do a little check. And I think we should probably already restart. This feels completely and utterly cursed. We are 87. Let's restart. All right, get after it. I said please. That means they're going to give me a legendary. I go.
We're already on to the diamonds. I really didn't have many. I really didn't have many rare summons saved, unfortunately. Kina, gross. Such a terrible hero. Such a bad hero. Oh my god. Oh my god. She's so bad. Oh my god.
Kina sucks so much.
We don't care about going to full pity if we hit a banner unit. But if we don't hit one of these two and we went to full pity, that's probably the most likely scenario. I still will be upset. Come on.
The diamonds are melting away just like that. It happens so fast. It really does. It just happens so fast. Where are we at? I want to do a little check in.
Where's that Eloin? All right. So, we got 120 137. So, it's going to be five more pulls probably. A one.
Okay. A two.
Oh, we hit 30 early. 150 summons. We can live with it. 157 summons.
Come on now. Show me Iris. Iless. Iless.
Iless. Iless. Iless. Iless. There she is. And don't bring yourself. You can stay. Just give us the luck. We pulled Venoma again. What is going on? We just pulled her from the divine oneplus one.
Oh, of all I I said one character. We didn't want to come and that's who we pulled. Looking a lot like 800 awakening tokens. Oh my god. Uh that took exactly 120 summons. But then remember I done the 30 before. So 150 and then the little extra since Eloin. So when this goes up to 943, that's when we're thinking it's going to happen if we don't get bad luck again. We're up to a 100x. That's crazy. Yeah. No freaking way there. Yeah, Moon's watching.
They're tuning in in Shanghai. They said drop the Venom.
Initiate protocol V.
At least I went up 1%.
I mean, the Venoma pull is going to be good for the tournament because I pulled a lord, right?
So, I'll be hit bonus points. There we go. Let's go. Huge, huge, huge, huge.
Oh, that's big stuff. Big, big, big stuff. That was what, three temples.
Come on, I All right. Aim agent. It's a very good awakening. We'll take it.
Double right here is also IS. The beautiful couple. All right, let's go.
Huge. Officially, the progressive is done. This is just a normal 20x. I'll lock it in now, folks. We'll go for three more legendaries. Three more legendaries. And then if we don't hit A1 IS, I will reevaluate cuz uh I'm coming out of this with A1 IS. I might regret those words. I might I might be about to drop a perhaps I'm about to drop 100,000 diamonds, but uh sweet baby G's. Let's go. Stay hot. No.
Yeah, the A1 on Adrian is legit. Let me actually show it to you guys really fast. So when he triggers his ult, he immediately gets a shield equal to 80% of his HP and the duration is equal to the ultimate. So, we look at the ultimate. Normally during it, he's going to gain a shield equal to 30% of his max HP every time he triggers one of his enhanced attacks, which happens frequently during the ultimate, but still it takes a while to build up that shield. Now, he's still going to add another 30% HP on with all those enhanced attacks, but the starting line is 80% of his health. So, he just starts with 80%. The first enhanced attack is going to take him to that max 100%. He can keep going and going and going. Uh, very, very good. Actually, here's I actually don't even know. May maybe it's even bigger. Maybe that's 100% that you can stack on top of the 80% assuming you don't lose the 80%. One way or another, it's big shields. I've used them in a lot of takeovers and I've seen some really large shields if I can tell you.
Come on. Amatel in the chat says the gods are going to give it to us early tonight. I wouldn't complain. I would not complain.
He is very good for Matrix. There have there have been some other tank strats to emerge that have pushed him just out of the meta if you're running a chaos comp. But uh outside of that, he's very dominant in spellbane matrix.
Personally, I've started using the Valdderon tank strat. But uh regardless, Adrian's he's phenomenal for progression if once you get some HP gear for him.
The introduction of Undying Savage makes him much easier to build for many players if you're not like me and you haven't hoarded all this HP gear. And then finally, he's he's really good in AMR. like really really really good. I'm going to try to prevent myself from dipping under 200,000 diamonds. I think that would be a little insane for me to spend. That would be just over a,000 summons cuz I think right 88,000 and I was at about 288 and then I had some rares. Granted, I'll get some rebate back, but I think over a,000 summons would be a little insane. I'd love for that number to be more like 5 to 700.
That's what this is. That's it's looking like that'd be a realistic good outcome.
I do need DZA very bad. I still don't have dirta. I I'm almost certain they've never run dirts on a banner, which is a little insane. There we go. Might have been full pity. Might not have. I don't know. Actually, I can tell you we hit at 79 793 was the last uh one. So, let's see.
Let's see it. Let's see it. Let's see it. Lord Phineas, I mean, not a bad unit to pick up awakenings for. Probably was just about exactly full pity because we hit like 793 is where we ended up after the pull and we hit Adrian on the first one. There's a full pity. So, two full pitties and one nice early hit. Lots of blues, lots of rebate. These diamonds are absolutely melting away. Absolutely disappearing. Do we need to restart the game? I think we do. All right, down to 260. We've already burned through like 30,000 diamonds nearly. And and those like 40 50 rare summons and the things I did on the stream the other day. Boy, oh boy. Not going great.
Not going great. I guess we haven't hit anything like bad, right? Adrian Dup's cool. Venoma worst case is 800 tokens.
And then Phineas is supremely usable. I believe that's eight. It's A3 for Lord Phineas, which is a nice one. I'm I'm not complaining. Going to a third full pity. Maybe I'm a little bit complaining, let me tell you that much.
Yes, we are there. We're at like 140 now. All right, there we go. Full pity.
Very full. That might have been over 190 to be honest. Come on, Talon. I mean, we'll take that. That's A3 Talon. That's something I've been hunting for a while.
I really don't like the three full pitties out of four, but it is what it is. We started at 46643 and now we're at 47143. So, we've done exactly 500 pulls.
All right, so we'll do two more legendaries unless the next one's. I think this A3 is going to be impossible. I'm starting to sweat. I'm starting to absolutely sweat. These are my Assassin's Creed diamonds they're taking now. We're going to go to Italiano Italiano one and we're going to say all. All right, cool.
Please, please, please, please, please, please, please. Oh, thank you for the three rares. Oh my god.
Oh boy. You can't say I didn't try, folks. You can't say I didn't try for this.
Uh, I'm sure I've finished the spiritual alter or I'm sure by the time I'm done with this, I'll finish it. I'm only number two in Arrival Heroes. That hurts.
How many soul stones do I have? I believe I have 12 unpolished soul stones and a 13th I can craft.
Give her a restart, too. We'll see who the next pull is. I feel like the next pull is going to be Aurora, and I don't want to Excuse me. If it's the next Wow, now it is going to be Aurora. I feel like the next pull is going to be Ireless, and then I'm going to be very sad. I feel like the next poll, if it was Laura, I'd be very sad. Maybe I'm getting more and more tired by the second. And uh if it if it was going to be IS and I quit out of it and like reset the instance, if that's a thing, and then I miss her, then I would be sad. I can't speak. These diamonds have disappeared on us.
Come on, please.
How bad is this? A fourth full pity. Is this real life? 150 167. I mean, unless we hit here, that only be three early.
Nope. All right, full pity, guys. Come on, full pity squad. Come on, FPS.
There you go. Oh my god, we're going past 187.
Is he going to put If we don't hit in the first three, first two, we're in the 190s. Oh my god. All right, legendary.
There you go. 189 m. Someone in the comments is going to find a way to say that I wasn't unlucky. They always do that. They're like, "What do you mean?
This is This is what my summons look like all the time. I always summon 800 times and get five legendaries. That happens to me every week." You got double m on the one plus one. Double m on the one plus one is hilarious. I think that's only A1 or a2 m for me. So, I mean, I'm not really one to complain there. I have 10. Can you believe I have 10,000 heroes in my overflow storage?
At least it's not cratch. Uh, I mean, Crouch would have been funnier. That just that just hurt. Is this going to be a fifth one? Really? All right, we're restarting again. All right, run it back. There we go. All right, there.
They were just loading in an IUS for me.
That really took like 3 minutes to get back into the game. Here's IS. There you go. It only took 800 pulls or whatever.
Second early hit. Come on.
>> No.
>> Wow. Spit in my face and then tell me it's raining. Moon, you are the worst.
What are you doing to me? All right, what have we hit? We've hit Venomo.
Adrian, Talon, Ma, and Constants. Is that it? I think I'm gonna stop. I'll decide if I want to do the vines. But wow, that was horrible. Do not come at the comments and tell me this is what your pulls look like every time. Because you don't summon 700 pulls every time.
Maybe you've done it sometimes. I'm telling you, a lot of people like are like, "Oh, I always have to go to pity."
It's because most people only pull two or three legendaries, maybe even one.
So, it's a small sample size. When you pull like five or six or sometimes, you know, I pull 10 or 15 or 20. over those bigger sample sizes, you can really see there's these lucky moments that offset all the bad luck, but you guys don't experience that in real time because you just think about those big long sessions that were terrible and not the quick hits. This was terrible. This was absolutely a brutal and Lord Phineas.
All right, so we hit six legendaries. It is what it is. The two early hits were nice. I mean, also, I'll be it could have been worse. We could have not had two early hits, so that was cool. But there we go. Noless for me today. I'm going to contemplate the idea as I do the 67 thing. I don't know why. Maybe I'll do six or seven divine pulls. Maybe that's the idea I'm going to contemplate. But uh this sucked. Thank you guys so much for watching. I've been Fastidius and I'll see you real soon.
Share with your mother. Subscribe.
Bye-bye.
Fast.
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