The GME-EBAY Deal is BULLISH Beyond Belief for These 3 Reasons

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. Major GME eBay updates.

[00:00:06]Three things I think GameStop is doing that will transform the company, that will transform the entire stock market and will really transform the capital markets as we know them. Before we dive into those three things, this is not financial advice. Anything I say in this video should not be misconstrued as such, as you guys all well know by now.

[00:00:24]So, first things first, big Memorial Day weekend. Ryan Cohen was very vocal at the start of it for several different things. A couple articles came out about the GME eBay merger and acquisition and then some internet sleuths kind of were diving in and doing the due diligence over the weekend over Memorial Day weekend. Shout out to every veteran that has served for this country. Just a nice reminder for them. Great patriotism over the weekend. But without further ado, let's dive into the three topics today.

[00:00:57]Starting with this hilarious meme. Um, if you haven't heard, GameStop is at 6.6% ownership of eBay and it's a really exciting time to be a shareholder because there are so many twists and turns that this thing could take. But it kind of reminded me um that this capital allocation and this is a post from Bad Robot, a buddy of mine on X who really is pretty solid with combing through the due diligence. And I just wanted to remind people of the scenarios here that and I at the top I got to say I think and knowing Ryan Cohen's kind of track record of moves when he wants something he goes out and gets it and is not going to be deterred. And we'll look at a headline here that kind of re-emphasizes like little interview shades that emphasizes that. But Bad Robot here makes a really good point. What if the GME eBay deal doesn't go through by some, you know, twist and turn? GME is going to be a lot different and a lot better off even if it does not go through. And here's why.

[00:02:05]If eBay trades up to $125, the GME derivative position is already worth between 927 million and 1.47 billion, depending on which part of the options book you're looking at. So that's roughly 186 million to 236 million of pure profit sitting on $10 million all in entry cost which is less than.1% of GME's $9 billion cash on hand. Okay, so that's if eBay gets up to its bid price of 125, which is what GameStop said they are willing to pay in a premium type deal. and we'll pull up eBay's stock chart here and you can see that the funds and this that and the other whoever have already run this thing up and uh it's just sitting below 125 as of uh May 26 here. So it's been in a beautiful uptrend. We're about 7.5% away from the $125 target. And I think that in of it in in of itself is really indicative that people are pricing in this deal closing around that level. If you disagree, that's fine. But look at every merger and acquisition in history where a buying company is going to pay a markup for receiving a company. They always run the ladder up to that bid price. They're doing it now with this one. So, while they're telling you this deal can't happen. It's simply impossible. Uh they're actually buying it behind the scenes and targeting that $125 level. So, I think Bad Robot makes a really good point to call this out.

[00:03:45]Not in those words exactly, but just the fact that this setup looks really interesting. Institutions alone own a lot of eBay shares. Insiders hold another 4.9% non-reporting. Retail is only a small slice of that with uh short interest and then floating at 3.5%.

[00:04:05]GameStop's exposure adds 6.55% attacking the total well past 100% of the available float before you even factor in rehypothecation. So I think there's some mechanics going on here too. And again, you can't say, you know, certainly this and certainly that. I don't think that's fair. But the point is, even if this deal falls apart and they run it up to about 125, you know, whatever, gets past that 130, 135, GME is going to have made a lot of money acting as a kind of aggressive style derivative-based hedge fund that can reap a lot of money and a lot of profit from doing this. So they could really do it over and over and over and go on as many interviews with CNBC as they want and do a whole song and dance and kind of buy their derivatives. Now, do I think that's going to happen? No. And I don't think that's their strategy because it's good to be, you know, in the tin to a degree, just so you know, like, okay, I'm not going to be caught off guard by anything, but it's obviously detrimental if you're making financial decisions on that. It could be, you know, we've all been burned by that, I'm sure. But this time is different. Squeeze risk is real.

[00:05:17]Goldman warns macro shorts at a 10-year high just as call skew explodes. The collapse will be colossal. Now you're seeing a lot of big accounts or people like Zero Hedge, you know, kind of posting about this over the past few days. Long story short, the market obviously depending on who you ask, if you ask Michael Bur, you know, it's been overvalued since 2009 and he's still, you know, calling for uh, you know, a collapse of the of the system over and over and over. But it hasn't happened yet. And the derivatives market and everything is super leveraged, super propped up. We know that. But you know, it just goes to show that when the big accounts start talking this way, you have GME on the precipice of transforming its business in many different facets, but one in in particular, which is an a merger and acquisition of eBay. You know, you really have kind of this perfect storm brewing. And I think, you know, there's been many different times that the community and myself have thought, okay, wow, this is looking a little shaky here for the markets. But you have the Japanese bond yields out of control with their government bond yields, their 10-year, their 30, their 40. They're all soaring to all-time highs. You had a little brief carry trade unwind in August of 2024 where the US capital markets flushed out from that, you know.

[00:06:36]So, I'm just thinking, you know, putting one and one together here, which Andrew Sorcin has no idea what that equals to, you know, that that things are really setting up here um for a cascading effect of some kind. and we'll have to see whether that's up or down, but Ryan Cohen plays aggressive push to buy eBay.

[00:06:52]GameStop's balance sheet has the firepower to make it happen. Cohen is committed and undeterred. Now, this is from Bar Chart, really a legacy site in the stock and financial markets sector, and I think this is a really good synopsis. I'll pull the article up here for you guys. It's one of those things that shows that GME and Ryan Cohen are not going anywhere. And quite frankly, Ryan Cohen has not been deterred. when he wanted to get GME, he was not deterred. He took an activist investor stake and continued and still is continuing to add to his position. eBay is a similar story. It just happens to be extremely pricey, extremely pricey, uh, at its current, you know, rate, but this is something that Ryan Cohen believes is his ability to transform.

[00:07:37]So, we have three things going on here.

[00:07:40]One is if the deal does not go through, GME presumably is set to make a good amount of capital from their derivatives exposure and trade to acquire eBay, even if that falls through. Okay, that's the first part of that. So, their balance sheet is going to continue to be strong and fortified and presumably will keep growing even if it's just money market investments, whether it's derivatives, obviously you have much higher upside, but that is a huge huge plus for GameStop. The second piece of this is if the deal does go through, Ryan Cohen believes that he can transform eBay into a massive, massive business, give them a huge haircut on their expenses, and then add to their selling. So, his target is to reduce spending by 1.2 billion in sales and marketing and 300 million in product development, and then 500 million in general and administrative overhead. So, you know that e-commerce is Ryan Cohen's bread and butter. He did it with a retail company, a brickandmortar in GME with physical store locations. Just imagine, just imagine the possibilities that he could do with eBay. That really excites me. So that's extremely important. The third element of this that I wanted to say is extremely intriguing to me is that GME's ability to maneuver itself and operate sort of as a hedge fund is really going to improve their balance sheet all while being able to deploy that cash to improve its underlying business. We'll look at that in just a second. But I wanted to show this post from Bad Robot as well on X saying that 64.9% of net income from capital allocation activities. 64.9% okay from GME's net income is from capital allocation activities. So what happened to their failing you know retail stores? This is crazy. This is crazy. They are really operating as a fund of some kind mainly a hedge fund really. Now, they're doing covered calls, we know on their Bitcoin holdings, which again, yes, they bought at too high of a price. But any investor who has been red on some investment knows that when you're red, you can hedge with derivatives, aka writing calls, whatever you want to do. Okay, that's what they're doing on Bitcoin.

[00:10:02]So, they are generating significant money from that. Um, and then we also have, you know, a look at a Q1 earnings estimate where the revenue from, uh, Bad Robot as well could be 809 million. So, total adjusted net income would be 667 million. eBay derivatives unrealized gain would be 456 million. BTC dollar gain plus covered calls could be a break even of 29 million positive. So, you know, you're seeing these crazy numbers and these are projections. Let's all get that out of the way, right? But you're seeing a third prong here for GME where they could really have this golden goose in Ryan Cohen's words over the weekend, killing the golden the goose before it lays its golden eggs, right? You could really have this super special situation here. And if one of the three things happens or they continue to do one of the three things, this company is going to be in great shape. eBay or not, this company is going to be here for decades and centuries. So, I'm really pleased as a shareholder. I'll be voting yes. as you know on all the outstanding items that the board recommended. And then I did want to just show real quick for market mechanics XRT day 14 on reggg show. Not a surprise there, but there are some big upcoming swaps here uh from love to burst on Reddit that they've identified in May. Now I'm going to pull up an easier you should everyone I highly recommend those into mechanics should comb through these uh dates in here. They're not hype dates by any means, but this sheet here, and I think this is from what I can make today, who's been, you know, in and around the swap game for some time, uh, he made this post over a year ago on Super Stonk, but just as a visualization of when some big swap experies are coming.

[00:11:44]And if we zoom in here, and you guys probably can't see this, but in May of this year, right here, this week in particular, the shortened trading week, there are two very large swaps. um on XRT and GME that are supposedly being rolled or coming due and you can do these months in advance. This is not a perfect science, but if there is some extended price action this week, maybe to the upside, you know, this might be telling the story. Now, the obvious thing here on this graph before we conclude is that the far right portion of this says December 31 of 9999. And you'll probably know um let me move my screen over just there for you guys a second. Uh that that is obviously those will never be coming due. Those will never be expiring. That is just the kind of infinite nature of GME and the kind of idiosyncratic risk or the asymmetric type stock that it is that Michael Bur once said before he sold his whole bag. But you get the point here. There is a lot going on behind the scenes. Those three things I mentioned in the video with Ryan Cohen being super incredibly determined to want to get eBay and I believe he's going to get it. And then the underlying business though is really benefiting from this strategy as well. So cheers to everybody. Let's have a great trading week. Let's go GameStop and we'll talk to you on the next