Frontier AI models like GPT-5 are trained approximately 100 times beyond the Chinchilla optimal scaling point, as estimated by analyzing inference token volume and amortizing over inference costs, which reveals that current models are significantly overtrained compared to theoretical efficiency benchmarks.
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GPT-5 Is Overtrained Roughly 100x Past Chinchilla Optimal追加:
Open AI also realizes that in their surveying a certain amount of tokens per second that tells you how much data went into the free training of GPT-5. It even if it's like 50% off or something, that is that is sort of wild that you can sort of first principles these kinds of numbers.
>> also I mean this is why you should just like approximate every way because like there's so big error bars on this. But yeah, I know it's kind of like empowering to just like set A equal to B and figure it out. Yeah, yeah. That's super cool.
Okay, so in this sort of trying to deduce things we can publicly look up the prices of the APIs of these models and maybe you can learn something from that.
So first with longer context >> [clears throat] >> Gemini 3.1 is um 50% more expensive if you go over 200k tokens than if you're below 200k tokens.
I mean at a high level I understand why that might that be, but why specifically 50%?
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